I am an O-line guy! Anyone that reads anything I post will know that. What JS should have done is go out and get a top notch FA center. Draft a Tackle/guard then draft a guard. That would give this coaching staff the tools to build /assemble a decent O-line with the necomers and the people that should remain. Other Than QB the O-line is the most important unit on offense for a team that wants to win consistently! Much more that the so-called Skill - players. Most teams have One truly good WR and if smart have a very good TE. Finally we are getting back to the importance of very good running backs. Seattle has two decent backs, maybe three. At least one good TE and at least Two good WR's. HEY , what the heck do you think about finally having a decent O-line !!!!! If JS doesn't sign a decent FA o-linemen and his get by cheap plan doesn't work he should be fired!!!!!
If we don't go Zabel with our first pick, I won't be mad. But I am hoping for Oline with 2 of our first 5 picks. Going BPA with 18 could make a strength even better. Mike Green, Emanwori, Warren, Dline. Just gonna make us better overall.
Dream scenario is Zabel and Jared Wilson/Marcus Mbow since they can play multiple positions and easily play in a wide zone scheme. Just not sure exactly what Kubiak is looking for in his Center.
The thing about Seattle’s iOL is you actually have two ways to solve for it
One is via the draft, which as you point out is relatively tough given where Seattle typically picks, and the value ascribed to other positions where Seattle typically picks. Making a guard or center your very first pick would be highly unusual. Especially bc you’re guessing about where the player will pan out.
The other though is free agency. Yes you have to pay up but you’re guessing a lot less — FA’s have performed in this league, you can see the tape.
Schneider seems to be doing neither. He won’t risk a high pick and he also won’t pay for a “known quantity”, or won’t pay what the other teams who sign those guys pay.
So are we doomed to mediocrity in the middle of the line forever?
I’m hopeful of Banks, or Membow, or Ersery at 18 — all tackle/guards, meaning, as you say can warrant a 1st rd pick bc they may be tackles, although you plan to play them at guard. But every mock I run has very attractive trade down options every time — sure feels like Schneider is going to trade down and stock up on 2026 2nd and 3rd rd picks.
Mock sites want you to stay on the site doing more mocks, so they make lots of trades possible to keep you playing and feeding their ad revenue.
Drew Dalman was the only Blue Chip IOL available in free agency and he wanted to be in Chicago. Will Fries missed 12 games last year and had mixed performance in the years prior. He was overpaid with the only 5 year FA contract and wouldn't do a physical. I give better than 50% that Minnesota has made a blunder with that contract, even if the last 2 years are window dressing. Chicago, the team that knew Tevin Jenkins best had no interest in keeping him. The risk/reward of signing most of these guys just wasn't there.
I spent a good part of my career in risk management.* When your plan tobuild an OL (draft talent, develop it with coaching, supplement it with “value” free agent signings) doesn’t work out, you are going to take a risk somewhere. That’s inescapable.
For example, Schneider could have taken greater risks in free agency. Instead, he stuck to his strategy, depending on Tom Cable to coach up the likes of Bradley Sowell and Luke Joeckl. When that didn’t work, Schneider again could have and didn’t take greater risks in free agency.** In effect, he transferred risk to Russell Wilson’s knees. We saw how that worked out.***
* A textbook football example in how to manage risk is Russell Okung’s approach to being his own agent. Derided at the time, Okung could be a case study in how to go representing yourself.
** I’m not forgetting the Duane Brown trade. But that was a black swan event that no one could plan on, and it did come with an opportunity cost.
*** Russell has his side of the story re the deteriorating relationship with the team. I bet that opens with him nearly getting his knee torn under the protection of Sowell and J’Marcus Webb.
I'm in risk management as well and could not agree more with your statements! Very well said, you have to take some risks otherwise you can't move forward as a team/organization.
Yes that’s my view as well — we’ve had more new OL coaches than new OL players and that hasn’t worked either.
End of the day, there just aren’t that many big strong mean quick interior linemen that can process fast enough for this league. Gotta get ‘em when they’re available.
To me, if one of the tackles and one of the iOL are Pro Bowl players, you can prob have Schneider-level offensive linemen on the rest of the line. Still have hopes for either of Cross or Lucas, but I just don’t think our interior guys can get on that list. Hope I’m wrong
I expect, at minimum, that this next year may be a demonstation of the importance of playcalling and coaching in the performance of an offensive line. Those may be very important, or they may actually prove to be only marginally important...or anywhere in between. If the new staff says they like our existing young players, as Schneider now insists, and those players nevertheless come out and lay an egg in 2025, then that staff indicts itself as a result--as coaches, playcallers and talent evaluators.
Picks at 18...gosh it depends on which sim/big board you use. There is SO MUCH of a difference in opinion on who's going to be available. I personally like Tyler Warren, Shemar Stewart, James Pace Jr, Colston Loveland (just 20 years old!!), & Ashton Jeanty, and they have been available in various sims. If you eliminate non-value positions that leaves two defensive players, a small edge and a big DE in Pace Jr and Stewart, respectively. I just don't think either of them are there at 18 in reality. I'm looking to trade down or trade into next years draft if none of those players are there...not sure we will find any trade partners though. All I know is in most sims, o-line disappears fast this year so I would be prepared for teams to overdraft/draft too high. I hope the draft falls like https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/mock-draft-simulator thinks LOL!!!
[Writing through covid brain, my first time...] I THINK that I've finally grasped the value proposition working against drafting IOL in the first round: Their salaries are typically low enough that there isn't a cost saving attached to that draft pick, the way there is with OT or QB or whatever. I continue to wonder if the shifting values of IOL in free agency this year, and the perceived scarcity, will change that. That is, if IOL salaries go up, does the value proposition work more in favor of drafting them in R1?
I also worry that enough other teams need IOL that the cupboard might be barren by 50/52.
I'd love the Bears trade noted down below (or will it be above?), just don't know what the Bears would want they valued so highly to make the trade. That's the whole challenge of wanting to trade down? The valuations are so close the benefit of trading up doesn't justify the loss of draft choices.
Continue to think R1 is a defensive difference-maker, day two is mostly offense, day three is day three poke & hope.
You make a great point for anyone just saying "let's trade down", like it's Madden... we would need a partner who wanted to trade up, and they need to have a specific player they wouldn't want to wait on. Might not be many opportunities for that to occur this year. Not saying it won't happen, either. Just not quite as easy done as said.
100%. It's the perfect draft to trade down. Lack of elite talent at the top, lots of depth in the middle. There might not be a big difference in grades between players in the middle of the first, to the end of the 3rd. But as you imply, then why would anyone move up and give away bites at the apple?
But, all it takes is one team to fall in love with one player. Maybe a team drafting in the twenties thinks one of those elite players makes it out of the first 17 picks, and wants to pounce. We'll see.
Read KHams post and go see all the success Seahawks have had over the years with OLine. They have players now. Kham posted what is needed. Awesome post he made.
First, thank you for the write-up and specifically addressing my question. Second, the list of positions was not in any particular order that I listed off. While I do not have a top five for each of those positions, I do have some players I think would be a good fit. My prediction for the first round is that we will take one of these players that could be available:
1. Pearce Jr
2. Banks Jr
3. Will Johnson
4. Golden or McMillian
5. Kenneth Grant
There is not a qb on this list but a position for all position groups that we will pick from. These are not the top players but the guys I think will be there at 18
I keep hearing on other sites that Pearce Jr. has "character issues," whatever that is. This is a lousy time of year to be a young athlete with an imperfect record, so I don't know what the issues are and don't especially wish to. But typically the 'Hawks avoid such players. And the Bengals...
Too bad that the Hawks don't have any eighth-round draft picks.
"Steve Largent, a 5-11, 187-pound wide receiver with only average size and speed but armed with exceptional determination and concentration, became one of history's most outstanding pass catchers during his 14-season, 200-game career with the Seattle Seahawks from 1976 to 1989. He was the fourth-round pick of the Oilers and the 117th player taken in the 1976 National Football League Draft. He played only four preseason games with Houston before being traded to the expansion Seahawks FOR AN EIGHTH-ROUND DRAFT PICK. It was the catch of the century for Seattle. Largent became an almost instant star with the Seahawks with 54 receptions, third best in the NFC, in his rookie season."
"Seemingly indestructible, Steve missed only FOUR games because of injuries his first 13 seasons. An NFL Man of the Year winner in 1988, Largent also was a positive force off the field."
I wish i'd bookmarked several of my breakdowns of our O-Line last year so i could just link back to them now. So here's a very quick very brief summary of a couple of guys, in answer to Maxx's question:
Mike Jerrell:-
6th Round pick from a Div 2 school, no-one should be at all shocked he showed signs of struggling in the NFL. We should all be quote happy he made it through cuts and onto the Week 1 squad, that's a good result for a 6th Round Div 2 player. Then with 0 offensive snaps, mid-season he was foreced into the line-up. He was never going to be 'Good' in those games, he was never supposed to be 'Good', he just had to be 'enough.
In his three-game substitute set Jerrell played far above expectations. He looked raw, very raw at times. A little too often he was a good step off the pace, not surprising for a 6th Rd Div 2 prospect (i'm going to keep hammering this home, becuase it's a key factor with Jerrell). What he did show though was why he was drafted and made it through camp. Mikes feet and legs were controlled, and his whole body link up is good (doesn't get twisted at the hips, nor bad balance). As a back-up to Lucas he's what you want, you could say "But he game up 5 penatlies in 3 games", three of those were against the Rams and honestly no-one looked good against the rams. To surrender just two penalties in his first two games is good, it shows his head is on right and that his fundamentals are solid.
Jerrell is a development prospect, who we should be shocked if he becomes more than a back-up for any team. However there is something to work with. A good coach has a platform there to work on, no key fundamental issues, it's just finding where that ceiling is. With a full season experience under him how, if Jerrell is required to step in for Lucas again we should all feel ok about it, and trust he'll do enough of a job.
Sataoa Laumea:-
I have less overall praise of Laumea, but again in context he's another 6th Rd pick. For me Laumea does have a few key flaws that definitely showed in his appearances in the back third of the season. Above i mentioned that Jerrell has good overall control of the body, for me Laumea has a disconnect at his hips. He's too twisted, and this was exploited a lot by the opposition. His first step off the snap too often has a rotation to it, turning him either to the left of right, rather than forwards or backwards. The defender can use this, overloading their pressure to one side, and basically rolling Laumea's momentum against him creating penetration.
The positive side of this problem, Laumea is rarely directly overpowered. If coaches can get that twist issue in hand, working Laumea more into a straighline first step, there's a lot of power there to hold the defence in check. He's also pretty controlled mentally, only surrendering 4 penalties across his 6 games.
Laumea, like Jerrell, should be better with a year of experience. He's much better as a run blocker, where he can more often generate straighline initial movement. There's still development work to do, but as i'll get to in a moment, hopefully the competition at RG will kick him up a step and we'll see some of that rookie issue resolved.
Anthony Bradford:-
The Guard Seahawks fans love to hate, and i see why but also see why he was 4th Rd pick. A lot of peoples frustration with Bradford comes down to penalties. And yes he gives up a lot of penalties. But as i dived into in the season, this isn't out of poor play but out of overenthusiasm.
Bradford is a natural mauler. He has power in him. He is desparate to get a hot first step and win his assignment. A little too desparate. This is where the too many False Starts comes from. What's interesting is look across Bradfords career. He started out too handsy, being called a lot for Holding (and getting a lot of no-calls when he should be pinged). But Anthony has clearly worked on his hands. They are dropped better in stance and movement, being much more of a push than a grab.
Now he's shifted towards false starts, and this really is a simple mental fix. I think he's tried too hard to win the RG spot.
Personally I think he's a better option than Laumea, and this is overall born out in the stats too. But this is where it's hard because we are not in the team meetings and trainings where clearly there was a preference for Laumea in the back end of the year. Bradford is a front foot fowards downhill type of Guard, he wants to go and dominate his collision. It's admiral but does leave him open to a few needless penalties, and not recognizing shifts in the D and opening a gap around him.
To summaries across all three players - Two 6th Rd rookies didn't stun the world?OMG i'm shocked... well not that shocked... not shocked at all... actually quite impressed they held up as well as they did. Bradford should have done more with his shot, but isn't a fundamentally bad player.
Another of my key points to the OLine from least year was also play calling. We sucked hard at disguising our plays and lanes. It was not hard to call 50% from my sofa, so a pro Defence would have been reading us better. If you know the oppositions play, you need genuinely Star players to overcome that. An NFL level OC and play caller will massively help out. Added to that would be a fix at LG.
I also talked about OLine as a unit a lot. Laken Turnstyle Tomlinson being so bad so much forced a half-step adjustment at Centre. That half-step forces half a step at RG to compensate and stay linked up. This ripples out to Tackle as well and just built in a guaranteed half gap for a Defence to target before anything happened. Add in then any struggled from a Div2 rookie at RT forcing the RG to try and cover an extra half-step Left and Right, there's a full Gap in the line now. Or if Laumea got twisted and opened a half-step gap, this drags the Centre or RT in, and there's a new gap open.
The way this OLine gets a lot better is 1) Plug LG with something more than a Turnstyle, 2) get proper NFL calibre play calling and design so the Defence doesn't know more than half our plays at snap, 3) Have Lucas back and fixed and stick with a Centre give the new LG and whoever is chosen at RG more chance to build chemistry and unity.
I'm not going into Haynes or Sundell here, i've already gone far far too long talking about the OLine. I've not talked about PFF grades because they're bogus (at least until they explain what goes into their rankings in detail). I'm not talking in terms of Sacks or Hurries etc as they can be cause by the QB or OLine or a whole range of factors that don't get broken down by statisticians.
For me a key factor of OLine ranking is Avg Pocket Time, the time from Snap to Throw Or Pressure. The 'Hawks was 2.4. The League Avg was 2.4. The League best was 2.7. Our %rate comparision from Blitz to Sack/Knockdown/Hurry was ok (not great but not bad), and i find interesting our %rate comparison from Sack/Knockdown to Hurry was a relative League outlier which is fair to interpret as a QB issue (or more realistically, to placate Mike McD, a playcall issue where Geno despite a League normal time to throw couldn't find anyone to get the ball to).
Stripping down to some of the key aspects of an OLine's responsibility and direct impact on the game, our OLine is on par with the rest of the league. It's pro sport where fine margins make a lot of difference, but we're arguably better in the above areas than KC's line, on a level with the Chargers who invested a lot into their line, and matching well with our rival 49ers.
Ok definitely time to stop OLine ranting now. Hope you enjoyed my TedX talk.
Kham thank you. Been saying this for the past year. People just don’t get it. I especially point out time to throw, which you do here. Nearly everyone looks only at raw stats. Further, and shout out to SJ calling it out. It takes time! Becton was a “bust”. Fries. Etc etc. Two major issues. Coaches and the real experts have noted. College ball is not preparing college OLine for the NFL. Five guys have to work together. Kham just went into fabulous detail here. Second. CBA eliminated hitting in practice. “Safety”. Nearly every OLine player looks incredible in shorts, especially to us mere peons humans. Not trying to really block Murphy Big Cat JReed in practice doesn’t prepare an offense lineman for the real games.
Haynes here (Olu is below in a different reply): He's a lot less interesting to talk about at the moment, and a lot easier. Basically, he didn't play anywhere near as much as the other RGs. I was high on Hayne back in 2023 and very happy when we drafted him. On the field in the times we did see him, he showed why.
He doesn't have the imbalance of Laumea, nor the jitters of Bradford. Not to say he's perfect, as there is obviously some larger concern from the coaches last year to not play him. This i think is a conditioning/strength problem more than a skills issue.
My hope is the first year was a growing one and he's fixed those off-pitch areas the coaches need, so that he can compete for game time. The plays he did make where good, not flashy but few mistakes and very stable, but it's hard to give an opinion off one-start vs Ari and some rotation.
Conditioning is the easier thing, but do you think he'll be able to gain the requisite strength? I mean, he could get as strong as he can, but what if that's not strong enough? What if it's just his "body" and he's just not as strong as other O linemen?
Then he becomes a bust. It makes the RG competition interesting as all three have ups and downs, all of them are quite different from each other. For me it's the most interesting training camp story this year
Nice report, I read every word. I agree with your overall assessment and list of things we can do to help out our existing o-line without losing sight of whats important. I think between the new receivers and lack of o-line changes, we might be getting ready to see a scheme change more than anything. Maybe this helps our line play better, maybe not. Hoping we look at Donovan Jackson at LG, he checks boxes for me.
Olu here (Haynes in a different reply): He should be our Week 1 starter at C. Once he finally took over at the position the quality of play notably went up there. He's got most things tidy and in hand. Settled feet mostly, and his hand work is nice with quick work from the snap to get up under his assingment.
In season i did point out that too often Olu was off-balance and taking sideways steps, but not from poor skill but out of a compensation to those around him. For me it was visible to see Olu shifting himself to support the Guard, setting him off balance into a rotation. Normally this shift was to the Right which comes from his natural footed/handedness, but to have that a visibly see left moves to try and help Laken says a lot.
Let Olu settle with the full time start, a consistent player at RG, and a not-turnstyle LG and we can see him really thrive and focus on being a good C, rather than focusing on supporting.
Great article, not that it means much, but I see pick 18 as a trade back or OT, edge, DT or TE pick. I think they will pick Tyler Warren if he falls, however unlikely. For OTs, I think they will pick Membou or Banks if they fall. There are probably a few EDGEs they would pick at 18, and with the possibility of losing Nwosu and Mafe next year, this is an area of need you don’t want to fill in free agency given what has happened to 2nd contract edge costs. I think they might pick Ken Grants DT/NT at 18. There is a benefit beyond having a true nose who can play wider outside and can get pressure in passing situations. Having a true nose will allow Murphy to move out to positions where his strength and quickness will increase his impact on the defense.
For those of you who say O-line in the 1st round. I have seen numerous mocks where the Seahawks could easily get both Tate Ratledge and Jared Wilson on day 2. I’d prefer this to taking Zabel or Booker at 18.
A trade back to pick up another day 2 pick if they don’t have someone outlined above would be my preference. My favorite trade back I saw was with the Bears. We traded pick 18 and a day 5 pick for the bears picks 39 and 41. When I ran it through an analyzer, they said it had a 48% chance of being accepted. The hawks would not have a 1st round pick, but they would have 4 2nd round picks and 2 3rd round picks.
I'm worried about Tate Ratledge a bit--this is not to say I wouldn't consider him. I think he's only played RG, like most of our guards. I'm looking at LT converts, LG, and players who have played all over the line. Wyatt Millum is a good zone blocker who has played on the left side and could be there at 50.
I just used Ratledge and Wilson as examples. I don’t think it’s required or a good decision to draft IOL at 18 if it’s not best player available. Zabel could be available at the end of the first round and you could trade back, pick up a round 3 or 4 pick and still get him. I’d be fine with Wyatt Millum on day 2. Especially if they get a premium edge at 18. Mafe could cost $30 million APY if he has a good year. I’d almost try to sign him to an extension before the season. He’s been very durable and is going to be very solid going forward at the least. If we roll the dice, he could cost more than we can pay or are willing to pay. That’s a good reason for drafting a premium edge at 18 to 5 years on a rookie contract.
Great points! Yeah, 18 is just so late in the first round for predictions because every pick 1-17 is a domino that will change the course of the draft. Sometimes great players do fall past 17 picks, too good to pass on (as Murphy supposedly was), but I agree that the highest percentage shot for a guess is trading back.
I have him at 3-4 round. I just don’t see JS going heavy in the OL as many thing. He really believes over drafted and overpaid. I went back and looked at past JS drafts After he lost Scott Fitterer, Scot McCloughan and Ed Dodds he was no where near as successful
Kevin Mawae is an interesting case, probably the least known Seahawk in the Hall. The funny thing is he could’ve been a lifetime Seahawk—I recall a beat reporter item in the 90s that he wanted to resign with the team and was well respected in the league for his play. But Dennis Erickson and Randy Mueller were feeling a bit on the hot seat and started looking for bigger name free agents around that time. If Mawae had re-signed with the Seahawks, however, I would bet there would’ve been no chance in Hades that he would’ve sniffed the Hall of Fame. It takes an extra layer of special for Seahawks to get noticed.
John Randle of Texas A&I (now Texas A&M-Kingsville). My father was the library director there for 25 years. A&I has two other HOFers: Darrell Green and Gene Upshaw.
I am an O-line guy! Anyone that reads anything I post will know that. What JS should have done is go out and get a top notch FA center. Draft a Tackle/guard then draft a guard. That would give this coaching staff the tools to build /assemble a decent O-line with the necomers and the people that should remain. Other Than QB the O-line is the most important unit on offense for a team that wants to win consistently! Much more that the so-called Skill - players. Most teams have One truly good WR and if smart have a very good TE. Finally we are getting back to the importance of very good running backs. Seattle has two decent backs, maybe three. At least one good TE and at least Two good WR's. HEY , what the heck do you think about finally having a decent O-line !!!!! If JS doesn't sign a decent FA o-linemen and his get by cheap plan doesn't work he should be fired!!!!!
If we don't go Zabel with our first pick, I won't be mad. But I am hoping for Oline with 2 of our first 5 picks. Going BPA with 18 could make a strength even better. Mike Green, Emanwori, Warren, Dline. Just gonna make us better overall.
Dream scenario is Zabel and Jared Wilson/Marcus Mbow since they can play multiple positions and easily play in a wide zone scheme. Just not sure exactly what Kubiak is looking for in his Center.
Just signed the blocking TE today.
The thing about Seattle’s iOL is you actually have two ways to solve for it
One is via the draft, which as you point out is relatively tough given where Seattle typically picks, and the value ascribed to other positions where Seattle typically picks. Making a guard or center your very first pick would be highly unusual. Especially bc you’re guessing about where the player will pan out.
The other though is free agency. Yes you have to pay up but you’re guessing a lot less — FA’s have performed in this league, you can see the tape.
Schneider seems to be doing neither. He won’t risk a high pick and he also won’t pay for a “known quantity”, or won’t pay what the other teams who sign those guys pay.
So are we doomed to mediocrity in the middle of the line forever?
I’m hopeful of Banks, or Membow, or Ersery at 18 — all tackle/guards, meaning, as you say can warrant a 1st rd pick bc they may be tackles, although you plan to play them at guard. But every mock I run has very attractive trade down options every time — sure feels like Schneider is going to trade down and stock up on 2026 2nd and 3rd rd picks.
Mock sites want you to stay on the site doing more mocks, so they make lots of trades possible to keep you playing and feeding their ad revenue.
Drew Dalman was the only Blue Chip IOL available in free agency and he wanted to be in Chicago. Will Fries missed 12 games last year and had mixed performance in the years prior. He was overpaid with the only 5 year FA contract and wouldn't do a physical. I give better than 50% that Minnesota has made a blunder with that contract, even if the last 2 years are window dressing. Chicago, the team that knew Tevin Jenkins best had no interest in keeping him. The risk/reward of signing most of these guys just wasn't there.
That’s the whole dilemma — do you take the risk or do you be more sensible. Will sensible get you a Super Bowl
I spent a good part of my career in risk management.* When your plan tobuild an OL (draft talent, develop it with coaching, supplement it with “value” free agent signings) doesn’t work out, you are going to take a risk somewhere. That’s inescapable.
For example, Schneider could have taken greater risks in free agency. Instead, he stuck to his strategy, depending on Tom Cable to coach up the likes of Bradley Sowell and Luke Joeckl. When that didn’t work, Schneider again could have and didn’t take greater risks in free agency.** In effect, he transferred risk to Russell Wilson’s knees. We saw how that worked out.***
* A textbook football example in how to manage risk is Russell Okung’s approach to being his own agent. Derided at the time, Okung could be a case study in how to go representing yourself.
** I’m not forgetting the Duane Brown trade. But that was a black swan event that no one could plan on, and it did come with an opportunity cost.
*** Russell has his side of the story re the deteriorating relationship with the team. I bet that opens with him nearly getting his knee torn under the protection of Sowell and J’Marcus Webb.
I'm in risk management as well and could not agree more with your statements! Very well said, you have to take some risks otherwise you can't move forward as a team/organization.
Coaching up would be the third. The Hawks have been relying heavily on that at least since Tom Cable, to little avail.
Yes that’s my view as well — we’ve had more new OL coaches than new OL players and that hasn’t worked either.
End of the day, there just aren’t that many big strong mean quick interior linemen that can process fast enough for this league. Gotta get ‘em when they’re available.
To me, if one of the tackles and one of the iOL are Pro Bowl players, you can prob have Schneider-level offensive linemen on the rest of the line. Still have hopes for either of Cross or Lucas, but I just don’t think our interior guys can get on that list. Hope I’m wrong
Russell Okung and Max Unger lugged league-average (or worse) offensive linemen to two Super Bowls.
Great example Paul G. I still remember the sinking feeling in my gut when we traded Unger for Jimmy Graham. Beginning of the end.
I expect, at minimum, that this next year may be a demonstation of the importance of playcalling and coaching in the performance of an offensive line. Those may be very important, or they may actually prove to be only marginally important...or anywhere in between. If the new staff says they like our existing young players, as Schneider now insists, and those players nevertheless come out and lay an egg in 2025, then that staff indicts itself as a result--as coaches, playcallers and talent evaluators.
Picks at 18...gosh it depends on which sim/big board you use. There is SO MUCH of a difference in opinion on who's going to be available. I personally like Tyler Warren, Shemar Stewart, James Pace Jr, Colston Loveland (just 20 years old!!), & Ashton Jeanty, and they have been available in various sims. If you eliminate non-value positions that leaves two defensive players, a small edge and a big DE in Pace Jr and Stewart, respectively. I just don't think either of them are there at 18 in reality. I'm looking to trade down or trade into next years draft if none of those players are there...not sure we will find any trade partners though. All I know is in most sims, o-line disappears fast this year so I would be prepared for teams to overdraft/draft too high. I hope the draft falls like https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/mock-draft-simulator thinks LOL!!!
18.
Shemar Stewart
EDGE Texas A&M
50.
NFL-team-logo
Grey Zabel
OT North Dakota State
52.
NFL-team-logo
Donovan Jackson
OG Ohio State
82.
NFL-team-logo
Xavier Watts
S Notre Dame
92.
NFL-team-logo
Terrance Ferguson
TE Oregon
137.
NFL-team-logo
Savion Williams
WR TCU
172.
NFL-team-logo
Jacob Parrish
CB Kansas State
175.
NFL-team-logo
Kyle Williams
WR Washington State
223.
NFL-team-logo
Donovan Edwards
RB Michigan
234.
NFL-team-logo
Jake Majors
C Texas
[Writing through covid brain, my first time...] I THINK that I've finally grasped the value proposition working against drafting IOL in the first round: Their salaries are typically low enough that there isn't a cost saving attached to that draft pick, the way there is with OT or QB or whatever. I continue to wonder if the shifting values of IOL in free agency this year, and the perceived scarcity, will change that. That is, if IOL salaries go up, does the value proposition work more in favor of drafting them in R1?
I also worry that enough other teams need IOL that the cupboard might be barren by 50/52.
I'd love the Bears trade noted down below (or will it be above?), just don't know what the Bears would want they valued so highly to make the trade. That's the whole challenge of wanting to trade down? The valuations are so close the benefit of trading up doesn't justify the loss of draft choices.
Continue to think R1 is a defensive difference-maker, day two is mostly offense, day three is day three poke & hope.
You make a great point for anyone just saying "let's trade down", like it's Madden... we would need a partner who wanted to trade up, and they need to have a specific player they wouldn't want to wait on. Might not be many opportunities for that to occur this year. Not saying it won't happen, either. Just not quite as easy done as said.
100%. It's the perfect draft to trade down. Lack of elite talent at the top, lots of depth in the middle. There might not be a big difference in grades between players in the middle of the first, to the end of the 3rd. But as you imply, then why would anyone move up and give away bites at the apple?
But, all it takes is one team to fall in love with one player. Maybe a team drafting in the twenties thinks one of those elite players makes it out of the first 17 picks, and wants to pounce. We'll see.
Trade back for an extra pick and then take 11 OT/C. I mean, one of them would have to work out, law of averages and all.
Read KHams post and go see all the success Seahawks have had over the years with OLine. They have players now. Kham posted what is needed. Awesome post he made.
First, thank you for the write-up and specifically addressing my question. Second, the list of positions was not in any particular order that I listed off. While I do not have a top five for each of those positions, I do have some players I think would be a good fit. My prediction for the first round is that we will take one of these players that could be available:
1. Pearce Jr
2. Banks Jr
3. Will Johnson
4. Golden or McMillian
5. Kenneth Grant
There is not a qb on this list but a position for all position groups that we will pick from. These are not the top players but the guys I think will be there at 18
I keep hearing on other sites that Pearce Jr. has "character issues," whatever that is. This is a lousy time of year to be a young athlete with an imperfect record, so I don't know what the issues are and don't especially wish to. But typically the 'Hawks avoid such players. And the Bengals...
Too bad that the Hawks don't have any eighth-round draft picks.
"Steve Largent, a 5-11, 187-pound wide receiver with only average size and speed but armed with exceptional determination and concentration, became one of history's most outstanding pass catchers during his 14-season, 200-game career with the Seattle Seahawks from 1976 to 1989. He was the fourth-round pick of the Oilers and the 117th player taken in the 1976 National Football League Draft. He played only four preseason games with Houston before being traded to the expansion Seahawks FOR AN EIGHTH-ROUND DRAFT PICK. It was the catch of the century for Seattle. Largent became an almost instant star with the Seahawks with 54 receptions, third best in the NFC, in his rookie season."
"Seemingly indestructible, Steve missed only FOUR games because of injuries his first 13 seasons. An NFL Man of the Year winner in 1988, Largent also was a positive force off the field."
Did anyone else have to pause when you read that 54 receptions was 3rd (!) In the NFC?!
Good pick-up. Actually, i didn't.
I wish i'd bookmarked several of my breakdowns of our O-Line last year so i could just link back to them now. So here's a very quick very brief summary of a couple of guys, in answer to Maxx's question:
Mike Jerrell:-
6th Round pick from a Div 2 school, no-one should be at all shocked he showed signs of struggling in the NFL. We should all be quote happy he made it through cuts and onto the Week 1 squad, that's a good result for a 6th Round Div 2 player. Then with 0 offensive snaps, mid-season he was foreced into the line-up. He was never going to be 'Good' in those games, he was never supposed to be 'Good', he just had to be 'enough.
In his three-game substitute set Jerrell played far above expectations. He looked raw, very raw at times. A little too often he was a good step off the pace, not surprising for a 6th Rd Div 2 prospect (i'm going to keep hammering this home, becuase it's a key factor with Jerrell). What he did show though was why he was drafted and made it through camp. Mikes feet and legs were controlled, and his whole body link up is good (doesn't get twisted at the hips, nor bad balance). As a back-up to Lucas he's what you want, you could say "But he game up 5 penatlies in 3 games", three of those were against the Rams and honestly no-one looked good against the rams. To surrender just two penalties in his first two games is good, it shows his head is on right and that his fundamentals are solid.
Jerrell is a development prospect, who we should be shocked if he becomes more than a back-up for any team. However there is something to work with. A good coach has a platform there to work on, no key fundamental issues, it's just finding where that ceiling is. With a full season experience under him how, if Jerrell is required to step in for Lucas again we should all feel ok about it, and trust he'll do enough of a job.
Sataoa Laumea:-
I have less overall praise of Laumea, but again in context he's another 6th Rd pick. For me Laumea does have a few key flaws that definitely showed in his appearances in the back third of the season. Above i mentioned that Jerrell has good overall control of the body, for me Laumea has a disconnect at his hips. He's too twisted, and this was exploited a lot by the opposition. His first step off the snap too often has a rotation to it, turning him either to the left of right, rather than forwards or backwards. The defender can use this, overloading their pressure to one side, and basically rolling Laumea's momentum against him creating penetration.
The positive side of this problem, Laumea is rarely directly overpowered. If coaches can get that twist issue in hand, working Laumea more into a straighline first step, there's a lot of power there to hold the defence in check. He's also pretty controlled mentally, only surrendering 4 penalties across his 6 games.
Laumea, like Jerrell, should be better with a year of experience. He's much better as a run blocker, where he can more often generate straighline initial movement. There's still development work to do, but as i'll get to in a moment, hopefully the competition at RG will kick him up a step and we'll see some of that rookie issue resolved.
Anthony Bradford:-
The Guard Seahawks fans love to hate, and i see why but also see why he was 4th Rd pick. A lot of peoples frustration with Bradford comes down to penalties. And yes he gives up a lot of penalties. But as i dived into in the season, this isn't out of poor play but out of overenthusiasm.
Bradford is a natural mauler. He has power in him. He is desparate to get a hot first step and win his assignment. A little too desparate. This is where the too many False Starts comes from. What's interesting is look across Bradfords career. He started out too handsy, being called a lot for Holding (and getting a lot of no-calls when he should be pinged). But Anthony has clearly worked on his hands. They are dropped better in stance and movement, being much more of a push than a grab.
Now he's shifted towards false starts, and this really is a simple mental fix. I think he's tried too hard to win the RG spot.
Personally I think he's a better option than Laumea, and this is overall born out in the stats too. But this is where it's hard because we are not in the team meetings and trainings where clearly there was a preference for Laumea in the back end of the year. Bradford is a front foot fowards downhill type of Guard, he wants to go and dominate his collision. It's admiral but does leave him open to a few needless penalties, and not recognizing shifts in the D and opening a gap around him.
To summaries across all three players - Two 6th Rd rookies didn't stun the world?OMG i'm shocked... well not that shocked... not shocked at all... actually quite impressed they held up as well as they did. Bradford should have done more with his shot, but isn't a fundamentally bad player.
Another of my key points to the OLine from least year was also play calling. We sucked hard at disguising our plays and lanes. It was not hard to call 50% from my sofa, so a pro Defence would have been reading us better. If you know the oppositions play, you need genuinely Star players to overcome that. An NFL level OC and play caller will massively help out. Added to that would be a fix at LG.
I also talked about OLine as a unit a lot. Laken Turnstyle Tomlinson being so bad so much forced a half-step adjustment at Centre. That half-step forces half a step at RG to compensate and stay linked up. This ripples out to Tackle as well and just built in a guaranteed half gap for a Defence to target before anything happened. Add in then any struggled from a Div2 rookie at RT forcing the RG to try and cover an extra half-step Left and Right, there's a full Gap in the line now. Or if Laumea got twisted and opened a half-step gap, this drags the Centre or RT in, and there's a new gap open.
The way this OLine gets a lot better is 1) Plug LG with something more than a Turnstyle, 2) get proper NFL calibre play calling and design so the Defence doesn't know more than half our plays at snap, 3) Have Lucas back and fixed and stick with a Centre give the new LG and whoever is chosen at RG more chance to build chemistry and unity.
I'm not going into Haynes or Sundell here, i've already gone far far too long talking about the OLine. I've not talked about PFF grades because they're bogus (at least until they explain what goes into their rankings in detail). I'm not talking in terms of Sacks or Hurries etc as they can be cause by the QB or OLine or a whole range of factors that don't get broken down by statisticians.
For me a key factor of OLine ranking is Avg Pocket Time, the time from Snap to Throw Or Pressure. The 'Hawks was 2.4. The League Avg was 2.4. The League best was 2.7. Our %rate comparision from Blitz to Sack/Knockdown/Hurry was ok (not great but not bad), and i find interesting our %rate comparison from Sack/Knockdown to Hurry was a relative League outlier which is fair to interpret as a QB issue (or more realistically, to placate Mike McD, a playcall issue where Geno despite a League normal time to throw couldn't find anyone to get the ball to).
Stripping down to some of the key aspects of an OLine's responsibility and direct impact on the game, our OLine is on par with the rest of the league. It's pro sport where fine margins make a lot of difference, but we're arguably better in the above areas than KC's line, on a level with the Chargers who invested a lot into their line, and matching well with our rival 49ers.
Ok definitely time to stop OLine ranting now. Hope you enjoyed my TedX talk.
Great write up! Schneider likes Bradford—hopefully, he’s echoing the new offensive coaching staff.
Kham thank you. Been saying this for the past year. People just don’t get it. I especially point out time to throw, which you do here. Nearly everyone looks only at raw stats. Further, and shout out to SJ calling it out. It takes time! Becton was a “bust”. Fries. Etc etc. Two major issues. Coaches and the real experts have noted. College ball is not preparing college OLine for the NFL. Five guys have to work together. Kham just went into fabulous detail here. Second. CBA eliminated hitting in practice. “Safety”. Nearly every OLine player looks incredible in shorts, especially to us mere peons humans. Not trying to really block Murphy Big Cat JReed in practice doesn’t prepare an offense lineman for the real games.
Definitely enjoyed your post!! Way more expertise than I have. Which leads to the following question:
What’s your view on Haynes?
Haynes here (Olu is below in a different reply): He's a lot less interesting to talk about at the moment, and a lot easier. Basically, he didn't play anywhere near as much as the other RGs. I was high on Hayne back in 2023 and very happy when we drafted him. On the field in the times we did see him, he showed why.
He doesn't have the imbalance of Laumea, nor the jitters of Bradford. Not to say he's perfect, as there is obviously some larger concern from the coaches last year to not play him. This i think is a conditioning/strength problem more than a skills issue.
My hope is the first year was a growing one and he's fixed those off-pitch areas the coaches need, so that he can compete for game time. The plays he did make where good, not flashy but few mistakes and very stable, but it's hard to give an opinion off one-start vs Ari and some rotation.
Conditioning is the easier thing, but do you think he'll be able to gain the requisite strength? I mean, he could get as strong as he can, but what if that's not strong enough? What if it's just his "body" and he's just not as strong as other O linemen?
Then he becomes a bust. It makes the RG competition interesting as all three have ups and downs, all of them are quite different from each other. For me it's the most interesting training camp story this year
They're great, but I prefer Fruit of the Loom
Nice report, I read every word. I agree with your overall assessment and list of things we can do to help out our existing o-line without losing sight of whats important. I think between the new receivers and lack of o-line changes, we might be getting ready to see a scheme change more than anything. Maybe this helps our line play better, maybe not. Hoping we look at Donovan Jackson at LG, he checks boxes for me.
Shoot , the one I really wanted to hear about was Haynes! Next time, maybe? Thank you for this very detailed and explanatory post.
Yeah. I'd love to see your thoughts on Haynes and Olu at some point. Thanks for the time you spent, KH.
Olu here (Haynes in a different reply): He should be our Week 1 starter at C. Once he finally took over at the position the quality of play notably went up there. He's got most things tidy and in hand. Settled feet mostly, and his hand work is nice with quick work from the snap to get up under his assingment.
In season i did point out that too often Olu was off-balance and taking sideways steps, but not from poor skill but out of a compensation to those around him. For me it was visible to see Olu shifting himself to support the Guard, setting him off balance into a rotation. Normally this shift was to the Right which comes from his natural footed/handedness, but to have that a visibly see left moves to try and help Laken says a lot.
Let Olu settle with the full time start, a consistent player at RG, and a not-turnstyle LG and we can see him really thrive and focus on being a good C, rather than focusing on supporting.
Boy, Miami must be desperate to have picked up Laken. Maybe he's just for back up?
Ditto.
Whoa, KHammarling ! What this Seaside Community IS, Good Golly.
Waiting for future development now.
Awesome breakdown. Thanks.
Great article, not that it means much, but I see pick 18 as a trade back or OT, edge, DT or TE pick. I think they will pick Tyler Warren if he falls, however unlikely. For OTs, I think they will pick Membou or Banks if they fall. There are probably a few EDGEs they would pick at 18, and with the possibility of losing Nwosu and Mafe next year, this is an area of need you don’t want to fill in free agency given what has happened to 2nd contract edge costs. I think they might pick Ken Grants DT/NT at 18. There is a benefit beyond having a true nose who can play wider outside and can get pressure in passing situations. Having a true nose will allow Murphy to move out to positions where his strength and quickness will increase his impact on the defense.
For those of you who say O-line in the 1st round. I have seen numerous mocks where the Seahawks could easily get both Tate Ratledge and Jared Wilson on day 2. I’d prefer this to taking Zabel or Booker at 18.
A trade back to pick up another day 2 pick if they don’t have someone outlined above would be my preference. My favorite trade back I saw was with the Bears. We traded pick 18 and a day 5 pick for the bears picks 39 and 41. When I ran it through an analyzer, they said it had a 48% chance of being accepted. The hawks would not have a 1st round pick, but they would have 4 2nd round picks and 2 3rd round picks.
Have a great week!
I'm worried about Tate Ratledge a bit--this is not to say I wouldn't consider him. I think he's only played RG, like most of our guards. I'm looking at LT converts, LG, and players who have played all over the line. Wyatt Millum is a good zone blocker who has played on the left side and could be there at 50.
I just used Ratledge and Wilson as examples. I don’t think it’s required or a good decision to draft IOL at 18 if it’s not best player available. Zabel could be available at the end of the first round and you could trade back, pick up a round 3 or 4 pick and still get him. I’d be fine with Wyatt Millum on day 2. Especially if they get a premium edge at 18. Mafe could cost $30 million APY if he has a good year. I’d almost try to sign him to an extension before the season. He’s been very durable and is going to be very solid going forward at the least. If we roll the dice, he could cost more than we can pay or are willing to pay. That’s a good reason for drafting a premium edge at 18 to 5 years on a rookie contract.
Great points! Yeah, 18 is just so late in the first round for predictions because every pick 1-17 is a domino that will change the course of the draft. Sometimes great players do fall past 17 picks, too good to pass on (as Murphy supposedly was), but I agree that the highest percentage shot for a guess is trading back.
My predications. Keep in mind I live in Texas so I see the SEC a lot as well
Booker
Luther Burden III
Milroe ( dark horse )
Ratledge
Starks
Jeanty
Not necessarily the players I would’ve picked, but who I think JS will
Milroe is not a 1st rounder. He could go much later than his big board ratings. He's Josh Fields with less mental talent.
I have him at 3-4 round. I just don’t see JS going heavy in the OL as many thing. He really believes over drafted and overpaid. I went back and looked at past JS drafts After he lost Scott Fitterer, Scot McCloughan and Ed Dodds he was no where near as successful
Thanks for clearing up my faulty memories SSJ!
Thanks for the question!
Thanks Kenny, all good stuff.
Kevin Mawae is an interesting case, probably the least known Seahawk in the Hall. The funny thing is he could’ve been a lifetime Seahawk—I recall a beat reporter item in the 90s that he wanted to resign with the team and was well respected in the league for his play. But Dennis Erickson and Randy Mueller were feeling a bit on the hot seat and started looking for bigger name free agents around that time. If Mawae had re-signed with the Seahawks, however, I would bet there would’ve been no chance in Hades that he would’ve sniffed the Hall of Fame. It takes an extra layer of special for Seahawks to get noticed.
Haha, yeah it's really a shame that the Seahawks got such a major hit in the draft and let him walk.
Also if anyone is interested, here are players and coaches from the Seahawks in the Hall:
(I welcome corrections)
Requirements: played or coached for Seahawks and in nfl hof
QB Warren Moon
RB Edgerrin James, Franco Harris
WR Steve Largent, Jerry Rice
(Terrell Owens preseason only)
OT Walter Jones, Mike McCormack
OG Steve Hutchinson
C Kevin Mawae
DT Cortez Kennedy, John Randle
DE Carl Eller, Dwight Freeney
DL Mike McCormack
S Kenny Easley
KR Devin Hester
Coach: Tom Flores, Mike McCormack
Future possibilities
Adrian Peterson rb
Brandon Marshall wr
Jason Peters og
Richard Sherman, earl thomas, Bobby Wagner.
Russell Wilson, Marshawn lynch
Mike Holmgren, Pete Carroll
John Randle of Texas A&I (now Texas A&M-Kingsville). My father was the library director there for 25 years. A&I has two other HOFers: Darrell Green and Gene Upshaw.