Draft predictions...are not easy
Seahawks G/C plans for 2025, are best draft picks the first round picks, and why not a guard on day one?
What will the Seahawks do in the draft next month? Not sure! But I can answer your questions to the best of my abilities based on what seems most and least likely to happen.
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ernie: I’m an avid Seahawk fan who has 8 season tickets. I like your article on why we wouldn’t draft a guard. I’m very knowledge about football but not sure on this ? If tackles who are not good enough are moved to guard, why are not the top ten tackles in the draft not better than any guards. Curious, thx for you articles.
Thanks for your questions. I can totally understand the perception that “Seaside Joe says the Seahawks wouldn’t draft a guard” after a few recent posts (and most of the history of this newsletter) about interior offensive linemen, but I just want to make it clear that I can’t predict what John Schneider will do or not do.
I can only estimate a likelihood based on the historical record:
Schneider’s history
The Seahawks history
The NFL’s history
So if we go back to last week’s post on the last 23 years of first round guards/centers not winning a Super Bowl, that’s just a nugget of information I found to be relevant. Schneider could still seek to make history and draft a guard with his first pick.
Another recent post outlined Seattle’s STRONG track record of not investing in the interior of the offensive line. We already know that the Seahawks didn’t do anything out of the norm there in free agency; even attempting to sign Will Fries isn’t unusual, they’ve reportedly swung and missed (T.J. Lang) on big names in the past.
However, in January I also wrote that this could be the year that Schneider bucks history and drafts a first round guard. It’s just the most likely outcome.
Last year, and years prior, I’ve written about Seattle’s strangely consistent history of not drafting first round G/C, and then when they DO hit on a player (Kevin Mawae, Steve Hutchinson, Max Unger) they always find a way to lose him.
But the Seahawks could be so frustrated with recent day 2/3 picks — and also be nonplussed with other first round options — that Schneider drafts a guard in the first round. I can’t say that he wouldn’t, and I’m not saying that Seattle never should, but history strongly suggests that they won’t and that they don’t need to:
If the NFL drafted twice as many guards in the first round, more first round guards would be Super Bowl winners and Pro Bowlers. It’s just math.
Because the vast majority of starting NFL guards and centers were not drafted in the first round, it is logical that even if a team had ZERO guards and centers on the entire roster they could still wait until day two.
Think of it like a team that has no kicker or no punter: That’s a big hole on your roster, but it just means you might prioritize that position earlier than most teams.
There are only 2 guards consistently projected to go in the first round (Tyler Booker, Grey Zabel) but that’s only a projection and highly-rated guards/centers often go later than mock drafts (think Jackson Powers-Johnson or Creed Humphrey). However, there could be 4-6 tackles drafted in the first round — a typical number, maybe even lower than average — so teams don’t wait as long for tackles.
A first round tackle/guard-ish pick: Kelvin Banks
Tackles also cost more than guards (and a lot more than centers), so the value proposition nets a higher return on a starting tackle’s rookie contract than a starting interior lineman.
Specific to the Seahawks, Charles Cross is due a fifth-year option raise in 2026, while (injury prone) Abe Lucas is going to be a free agent. There’s a reckoning on the horizon at the tackle position. By comparison, Seattle has two more years to develop Olu Oluwatimi and Anthony Bradford, and three more years with Christian Haynes, Sataoa Laumea, Michael Jerrell, and Jalen Sundell.
Why should fans want the Seahawks to draft a guard if the reaction to a bad rookie season is always going to be to give up on him immediately?
I’m not 100% sure if I answered your question or not, Ernie, that may have been a bit of a tangent/recap/clarification, but the end result is:
Teams do draft tackles earlier than guards
The Seahawks would appear to benefit more from a first round tackle than a first round guard
The Seahawks are less likely to draft a first round guard than other positions and less likely than other teams, based on history
The Seahawks could ignore all that and still draft a guard, who I would be inclined to believe is more likely Zabel than Booker and only if they trade down first
The Seahawks could do that, but it’s just a strand of DNA that John Schneider has never shown us before so I’m not going to expect it.
Rusty: So looking at the best Seahawks of all time, how many were first round picks? It seems like there’s such an emphasis on first round players, but I don’t see the first round as the source for the greatest Seahawks (for the most part).
I would definitely agree that fans generally overrate the importance of first round picks, in the sense that there’s a perception every year that “this one player who the team picks at 15 (or wherever) is going to change the entire future of the franchise”, both long-term and even as a rookie.
Rookies do not tend to help that much, even good ones, and one player is only one player. Even when the Cleveland Browns have a rare hit in the draft like Myles Garrett, that player is going to find out that he can barely move the needle on his own.
But to answer your question, I was perhaps just as surprised as you will be that most of Seattle’s great players did come from the first round. At least, prior to 2010 they did:
HOF Cortez Kennedy (3rd overall)
HOF Kenny Easley (4th overall)
HOF Walter Jones (6th overall)
HOF Steve Hutchinson (17th overall)
HOF Kevin Mawae (36th overall, round 2)
These are all of the Seahawks current Hall of Famers who were drafted by Seattle. Of course, give it time and Bobby Wagner (2.47) will be there, Richard Sherman (5.154) will be there, and Russell Wilson (3.75) could be there. Kam Chancellor won’t (5.133) but only because safeties get little respect from the Hall of Fame.
However, if we’re adding future Hall of Fame candidates, then Earl Thomas (1.14) belongs too. Shaun Alexander (1.19) won’t get in, but is the team’s only MVP.
I know Pro Bowls are a tricky measurement for success, but be that as it may:
27 drafted Seahawks have made multiple Pro Bowls
12 of those players were drafted in the first round
6 others were drafted in the second round
This includes current Seahawk Devon Witherspoon, with 2 in 2 years
Of the 10 Seahawks to make at least five Pro Bowls, half were first round picks (Jones, Kennedy, Thomas, Hutchinson, Easley), and two others (Wagner, Mawae) were second round picks.
Other first round picks include Shawn Springs, Jeff Bryant, Joey Galloway, Ray Roberts, Marcus Trufant, Andy Heck, Tony Woods, Pete Kendall, and Terry Taylor, all guys who had long careers as starters. This doesn’t include Charles Cross, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Byron Murphy, players who have yet to show us how long and successful their careers could be.
So while teams are going to also end up with day two picks as good as Lofa Tatupu, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Frank Clark, Ahman Green, and Brandon Mebane, or day three picks like K.J. Wright, Chris Carson, and Michael Sinclair, those players are from a much larger pool of picks.
Another point to consider here as to why the Seahawks specifically don’t have as many elite first round picks in their history is that Seattle has picked in the top-10 less often than most teams, they’ve only picked in the top-5 eight times, and they’ve never had the number one pick (although this too is overrated). But three of their maybe five-best picks ever (Jones, Kennedy, Easley) were top-6 picks.
It is not by coincidence that Witherspoon is on a trajectory like few other NFL cornerbacks.
Final Answer:
Fans should not expect a single first round pick to be the team’s savior, but collectively first round picks produce a higher rate of impact players than any other day of the draft, especially in the top-10ish.
I agree with your sentiment, but it does so happen that many of Seattle’s best all-time players were first round picks, which is then followed by second round picks, then third round picks…then fifth round picks.
Maxx: I know I keep harping and blathering on and on about the OL. What is it about Lumea and Jerrell and Bradford that JS likes so much? The OL was #29 last year, and those guys were routinely st the bottom of the individual rankings all season long.
Does JS believe there is essentially no difference, skill and performance wise, between the 'Hawks and the O lines from Detroit, Philly, KC, or Buffalo? Is that why JS believes OLineman are overvalued/overdrafted (i.e. overpriced)? They are all so close in skills and abilities? And that's why he's sticking with the bottom of the barrel offensive line? Geno Smith covered up a lot of our O lines weaknesses. Not to mention the leader the last 2 seasons in 4th quarter comebacks and come from behind wins that walked out the door. Can Sammy have similar success covering up the Oline's glaring weaknesses?
To answer your second question, Schneider has referenced that the “good” guards are overpaid, so I don’t think that he sees no difference. He sees that there are better guards and centers out there on teams like the Eagles and Lions, he just doesn’t feel that the Seahawks can afford to pay them and keep other players who he prefers on the roster.
I would add to this that no matter who is at guard for those teams, the superstars of their offensive lines are Lane Johnson (4th overall pick) and Penei Sewell (7th overall pick), right tackles who were out of Seattle’s range and extended to infinity.
Philly’s left guard Landon Dickerson is by far their best interior player and despite going 37th in 2021, he was also well out of Seattle’s range: The Seahawks didn’t pick until 56th. The Lions best interior player is Frank Ragnow, a center who the Seahawks could have drafted in 2018 (they traded down instead) but at the time most people felt fine about Justin Britt.
My point just being that it’s hard to compare Seattle’s offensive line to the best offensive lines in the NFL, just as it would be to compare Sam Darnold to Josh Allen. The Seahawks didn’t get Josh Allen, those players are hard to find, and rarely has Seattle had a high enough draft pick to even have a chance.
As to your first question about Bradford, Laumea, and Jurrell, I don’t know that Schneider was any more pleased about their performances in 2024 than fans were. He just sees that these are the players currently on the roster (for relatively no money) and probably didn’t want to appear desperate on the market for the very few starting caliber guards who were available.
As much as fans think the team would have been better with a guard like Will Fries, he’s a former seventh round pick (who needed 3 years to develop) and he missed 12 games last season and the Seahawks wanted him to pass a physical. How are we to know that the Vikings won’t regret the 5-year, $88 million contract they paid Fries based partially on a prayer?
If Fries was allowed three years to develop, should Laumea and Bradford be allowed another offseason — with new OL coaches and a new system everywhere — to compete?
The Seahawks added Connor Williams late in the process last year. It didn’t work out for Seattle, but I think the Seahawks will keep scouring free agency and the waiver wire for veteran options, and they will be available. The Rams best guard is Kevin Dotson, a post-training camp addition who needed 4 years to develop. The Seahawks will also probably use a day two draft pick.
Schneider is hoping that the future is better than the past — because it sometimes is — and isn’t relying on every single one of his picks to start next year. He might just be expecting that one of them will. We should all expect that.
La’au: Joe, I would love for you to cover the five most likely picks at 18. As I have said elsewhere, I expect T, edge, cb, qb, wr as the position groups John will pick from based on value of rookie contracts. I feel that it would be good to cover top three of those position groups
Your top-5 is probably the same as my top-5. The only other argument you could make in terms of value would be defensive tackles over cornerbacks, but in Seattle’s case could they find snaps for a defensive tackle with Byron Murphy and Jarran Reed under contract for three more years?
My top-3 has always been OT, EDGE, and QB, with QB being the least-likely of the three, especially with Sam Darnold in the fold. It’s not that fans should be that confident in Darnold, but I believe that the Seahawks really want him to be the answer and won’t rule themselves out from drafting a quarterback in the 2026 first round.
Actually, a better top-3 might be: OT, EDGE, and TRADE DOWN.
As for specific players, I’ll definitely work on answering that question more completely over the next 4.5 weeks until the draft. Who are yours?
Seaside Joe 2210
I wish i'd bookmarked several of my breakdowns of our O-Line last year so i could just link back to them now. So here's a very quick very brief summary of a couple of guys, in answer to Maxx's question:
Mike Jerrell:-
6th Round pick from a Div 2 school, no-one should be at all shocked he showed signs of struggling in the NFL. We should all be quote happy he made it through cuts and onto the Week 1 squad, that's a good result for a 6th Round Div 2 player. Then with 0 offensive snaps, mid-season he was foreced into the line-up. He was never going to be 'Good' in those games, he was never supposed to be 'Good', he just had to be 'enough.
In his three-game substitute set Jerrell played far above expectations. He looked raw, very raw at times. A little too often he was a good step off the pace, not surprising for a 6th Rd Div 2 prospect (i'm going to keep hammering this home, becuase it's a key factor with Jerrell). What he did show though was why he was drafted and made it through camp. Mikes feet and legs were controlled, and his whole body link up is good (doesn't get twisted at the hips, nor bad balance). As a back-up to Lucas he's what you want, you could say "But he game up 5 penatlies in 3 games", three of those were against the Rams and honestly no-one looked good against the rams. To surrender just two penalties in his first two games is good, it shows his head is on right and that his fundamentals are solid.
Jerrell is a development prospect, who we should be shocked if he becomes more than a back-up for any team. However there is something to work with. A good coach has a platform there to work on, no key fundamental issues, it's just finding where that ceiling is. With a full season experience under him how, if Jerrell is required to step in for Lucas again we should all feel ok about it, and trust he'll do enough of a job.
Sataoa Laumea:-
I have less overall praise of Laumea, but again in context he's another 6th Rd pick. For me Laumea does have a few key flaws that definitely showed in his appearances in the back third of the season. Above i mentioned that Jerrell has good overall control of the body, for me Laumea has a disconnect at his hips. He's too twisted, and this was exploited a lot by the opposition. His first step off the snap too often has a rotation to it, turning him either to the left of right, rather than forwards or backwards. The defender can use this, overloading their pressure to one side, and basically rolling Laumea's momentum against him creating penetration.
The positive side of this problem, Laumea is rarely directly overpowered. If coaches can get that twist issue in hand, working Laumea more into a straighline first step, there's a lot of power there to hold the defence in check. He's also pretty controlled mentally, only surrendering 4 penalties across his 6 games.
Laumea, like Jerrell, should be better with a year of experience. He's much better as a run blocker, where he can more often generate straighline initial movement. There's still development work to do, but as i'll get to in a moment, hopefully the competition at RG will kick him up a step and we'll see some of that rookie issue resolved.
Anthony Bradford:-
The Guard Seahawks fans love to hate, and i see why but also see why he was 4th Rd pick. A lot of peoples frustration with Bradford comes down to penalties. And yes he gives up a lot of penalties. But as i dived into in the season, this isn't out of poor play but out of overenthusiasm.
Bradford is a natural mauler. He has power in him. He is desparate to get a hot first step and win his assignment. A little too desparate. This is where the too many False Starts comes from. What's interesting is look across Bradfords career. He started out too handsy, being called a lot for Holding (and getting a lot of no-calls when he should be pinged). But Anthony has clearly worked on his hands. They are dropped better in stance and movement, being much more of a push than a grab.
Now he's shifted towards false starts, and this really is a simple mental fix. I think he's tried too hard to win the RG spot.
Personally I think he's a better option than Laumea, and this is overall born out in the stats too. But this is where it's hard because we are not in the team meetings and trainings where clearly there was a preference for Laumea in the back end of the year. Bradford is a front foot fowards downhill type of Guard, he wants to go and dominate his collision. It's admiral but does leave him open to a few needless penalties, and not recognizing shifts in the D and opening a gap around him.
To summaries across all three players - Two 6th Rd rookies didn't stun the world?OMG i'm shocked... well not that shocked... not shocked at all... actually quite impressed they held up as well as they did. Bradford should have done more with his shot, but isn't a fundamentally bad player.
Another of my key points to the OLine from least year was also play calling. We sucked hard at disguising our plays and lanes. It was not hard to call 50% from my sofa, so a pro Defence would have been reading us better. If you know the oppositions play, you need genuinely Star players to overcome that. An NFL level OC and play caller will massively help out. Added to that would be a fix at LG.
I also talked about OLine as a unit a lot. Laken Turnstyle Tomlinson being so bad so much forced a half-step adjustment at Centre. That half-step forces half a step at RG to compensate and stay linked up. This ripples out to Tackle as well and just built in a guaranteed half gap for a Defence to target before anything happened. Add in then any struggled from a Div2 rookie at RT forcing the RG to try and cover an extra half-step Left and Right, there's a full Gap in the line now. Or if Laumea got twisted and opened a half-step gap, this drags the Centre or RT in, and there's a new gap open.
The way this OLine gets a lot better is 1) Plug LG with something more than a Turnstyle, 2) get proper NFL calibre play calling and design so the Defence doesn't know more than half our plays at snap, 3) Have Lucas back and fixed and stick with a Centre give the new LG and whoever is chosen at RG more chance to build chemistry and unity.
I'm not going into Haynes or Sundell here, i've already gone far far too long talking about the OLine. I've not talked about PFF grades because they're bogus (at least until they explain what goes into their rankings in detail). I'm not talking in terms of Sacks or Hurries etc as they can be cause by the QB or OLine or a whole range of factors that don't get broken down by statisticians.
For me a key factor of OLine ranking is Avg Pocket Time, the time from Snap to Throw Or Pressure. The 'Hawks was 2.4. The League Avg was 2.4. The League best was 2.7. Our %rate comparision from Blitz to Sack/Knockdown/Hurry was ok (not great but not bad), and i find interesting our %rate comparison from Sack/Knockdown to Hurry was a relative League outlier which is fair to interpret as a QB issue (or more realistically, to placate Mike McD, a playcall issue where Geno despite a League normal time to throw couldn't find anyone to get the ball to).
Stripping down to some of the key aspects of an OLine's responsibility and direct impact on the game, our OLine is on par with the rest of the league. It's pro sport where fine margins make a lot of difference, but we're arguably better in the above areas than KC's line, on a level with the Chargers who invested a lot into their line, and matching well with our rival 49ers.
Ok definitely time to stop OLine ranting now. Hope you enjoyed my TedX talk.
Great article, not that it means much, but I see pick 18 as a trade back or OT, edge, DT or TE pick. I think they will pick Tyler Warren if he falls, however unlikely. For OTs, I think they will pick Membou or Banks if they fall. There are probably a few EDGEs they would pick at 18, and with the possibility of losing Nwosu and Mafe next year, this is an area of need you don’t want to fill in free agency given what has happened to 2nd contract edge costs. I think they might pick Ken Grants DT/NT at 18. There is a benefit beyond having a true nose who can play wider outside and can get pressure in passing situations. Having a true nose will allow Murphy to move out to positions where his strength and quickness will increase his impact on the defense.
For those of you who say O-line in the 1st round. I have seen numerous mocks where the Seahawks could easily get both Tate Ratledge and Jared Wilson on day 2. I’d prefer this to taking Zabel or Booker at 18.
A trade back to pick up another day 2 pick if they don’t have someone outlined above would be my preference. My favorite trade back I saw was with the Bears. We traded pick 18 and a day 5 pick for the bears picks 39 and 41. When I ran it through an analyzer, they said it had a 48% chance of being accepted. The hawks would not have a 1st round pick, but they would have 4 2nd round picks and 2 3rd round picks.
Have a great week!