😍Imagine if Seahawks had an offense too

John Schneider's 2025 draft plans must focus on offense and QB

Here’s the most that can be said about how the 2025 draft will play out for next year’s class of quarterbacks:

Unpredictably.

At this time a year ago, people were still coming to terms with Jayden Daniels as a first rounder (he went 2nd overall) and Michael Penix, J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix were supposed to be fallback options on day two; instead they all went inside the top-12.

Here’s the least that can be said about how involved the Seahawks will be in those discussions:

They’ve been scouting the 2025 quarterbacks for the last few years, at least.

After 14 years of working for Pete Carroll, QB prospect enthusiast John Schneider must feel like a teenager who has finally gotten the greenlight from his parents that it’s okay to start going steady.

In Defense of Offense

As Tuesday’s newsletter pointed out, Schneider could “run it back” on defense with most of the same players — they could stand to add more talent and edge rusher should be a first round consideration — but the offense is struggling and the draft should serve as Seattle’s best opportunity to bolster a unit that doesn’t do anything as well as expected Super Bowl contenders like the Eagles, Lions, Ravens, and Bills.

Even if the Seahawks do have the NFL’s best defense next season, ranking ~20th in passing and ~30th in rushing isn’t going to get Seattle any further than the second round of the playoffs…Is being the 8th-best team any better than being the 18th-best or the 28th-best?

The Seahawks have already been the 8th, 18th, and 28th-best team recently. I’d be more curious to see what it takes for them to be the third-best…the second-best…geez, I’d even allow the Seahawks to be the best team again.

If this sounds like a rocketship headed directly to planet first round quarterback, that’s unintentional. But should a quarterback be a consideration in the first two rounds? It should be…and it already is.

Offensive Importance

Here are the top-5 teams in EPA per play on offense:

1. Ravens

2. Lions

3. Bills

4. Moons

5. Eagles

At this point, any NFC Championship game that isn’t Eagles at Lions would be a shock. Ravens at Bills is also very much on the table in the AFC and if you think Kansas City’s going to do their thing again, the Chiefs are ranked 6th so they barely missed the list.

Here are the top-5 teams in EPA per play on defense:

1. Lions

2. Vikings

3. Broncos

4. Texans

5. Eagles

A) More evidence as to why we’re going to see Lions-Eagles in the NFC Championship, but also B) Vikings, Broncos, and Texans? Houston is tied with Seattle for the 18th-best offense in the NFL by EPA/play and we’re seeing that a team like that is still struggling:

The Texans have a top-5 defense but they’ve lost four of the last six and to make the Super Bowl they’re going to need to first beat a wild card team that might have a better record than they do; then go on the road to face the Chiefs or Bills; then do that again…

The same could be said for the Chargers. Though L.A. has allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season, they can’t beat playoff teams:

• 20-10 loss to Steelers

• 17-10 loss to Chiefs

• 17-15 loss to Cardinals

• 30-23 loss to Ravens

The Chargers only win over a team currently in a playoff spot was a 23-16 win over the Broncos in Week 6, when they were coming off of their bye week, and Denver’s barely hanging onto the final AFC wild card because nobody else in the conference has a winning record.

And the Chargers already have their franchise quarterback!

But despite protecting the football (Justin Herbert has only thrown one interception) and upgrading the offensive line, the Chargers still lack next-gear explosiveness in both the passing game and on the ground. That’s a cautionary tale for Seattle:

A great quarterback, new coaches, better protection, and capable receivers could still fall short—for whatever reason—in a league where the championship standard is so far above being “really good”.

But don’t you have to try?

QB Comparisons

Here are some opinions:

• Lamar Jackson is better than Geno Smith and he’s having a better season

• Jared Goff is about the same as Geno Smith but he’s having a better season

• Jordan Love is about the same as Geno Smith and he’s having the same kind of season

The standard for playoff quarterbacks in the NFC still isn’t as impressive as the crop in the AFC, and that’s probably the strongest argument for not making a change at quarterback:

Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, and Jayden Daniels…

But what’s the standard and cost to build a team around the quarterback that’s good enough to help Geno be the winner in games against:

• Goff with the best OC, the best OL, elite weapons

• Hurts with an elite OL, an MVP candidate RB, a top-3 WR

• Love with an elite OC, a top-3 rushing attack, a defense first in takeaways

That’s not upgrading one position, that’s going to take Seattle upgrading the entire offensive line, a reliable tight end, and possibly making moves at running back and receiver. All of which are fantastic options for Schneider to consider in the first three rounds of next year’s draft…and doesn’t exclude the Seahawks from closely monitoring the quarterbacks again.

I love what the Falcons did

Watching Michael Penix give an interview to Mike Florio this week reminded me that even though Atlanta is sort of as good as the Seahawks (same 6-5 record, similar team dynamics), their most important player doesn’t even play. And that’s how it should be with rookie quarterbacks.

The sky didn’t fall. The team didn’t mutiny. Penix and Cousins get along fine. What were people so worried about?

As the Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels consortiums panic over expected first-year struggles, Penix gets to sit back, observe, and if all goes to plan, he can correct mistakes off the field, before they happen in games. Or as Tom Brady said:

"I've gone on record to say that it's best in my opinion for young quarterbacks, rookie quarterbacks, to watch a veteran do it. There's so much that goes on and quarterbacks need to process so much information so quickly. I sat behind Drew Bledsoe my first year. What a great player he was, someone that I got to watch and learn from. Aaron Rodgers watched behind Brett Favre. Patrick Mahomes watched behind Alex Smith. So when you have a real pro in front of you, they can help with that learning curve, even though that young quarterback isn't going out there and losing confidence in what his abilities are."

Some first round quarterbacks sit as rookies, then in their second year, their third, and then never become adequate starters. (Paxton Lynch reference.) It goes both ways. And Penix could sit on the bench for most of his rookie contract, which is not ideal.

However, I wish I was watching the NFL draft that other people seem to be watching.

It would be different if the typical top-10 pick turned out to be as good as Devon Witherspoon or Aidan Hutchinson, but we know that’s not the case. Penix was Atlanta’s fourth straight pick in the top-10 and these are the three who preceded him:

• 2021: TE Kyle Pitts, 4th overall

• 2022: WR Drake London, 8th overall

• 2023: RB Bijan Robinson, 8th overall

And these picks are better than most!

Should a team regret losing out on the next Drake London because they wanted to take a shot at a quarterback? If London turns into Mike Evans, then great you drafted a borderline Hall of Fame receiver…who has only made the playoffs ONE TIME IN HIS CAREER when Tom Brady wasn’t the quarterback…and that non-Brady team was 9-8.

But if Penix turns into the next Matt Ryan, that team is going to stay in playoff contention every year and sometimes be good enough to reach the Super Bowl, so franchises that don’t take shots at quarterbacks once in awhile aren’t doing the draft right.

What to do about it

Without knowing the draft order and not being within weeks, if not days from the draft, there’s no point in saying specific names or positions that the Seahawks should address in 2025. However, that doesn’t mean there’s not an idealistic endgame here and this is what I would try to do:

• Draft an offensive tackle in the first or second round

• Draft a quarterback in the first, second, or third round

• Draft a skill player or ANY offensive lineman in the second or third round

This could result in a QB/OT/WR draft, a OT/TE/QB draft, a QB/C/WR draft, or even an EDGE/OT/QB draft if the best available player in the first round is a pass rusher. But getting over the fear of drafting a quarterback is no longer just a (probably ignored) option.

It’s a necessity.

Seaside Joe 2097