The biggest misconception about modern QB contracts: The 'middle tier' myth

Do Seattle sports radio hosts do any research at all? Seaside Joe 1459

There are 9 QBs on veteran contracts for next year. Let me say that again because you’re probably like… “No there aren’t.”

There are 9 QBs on veteran contracts for 2024.

When I hear people talk about Geno Smith and say “$30 million for a quarterback is just middle of the road now” that’s when I want to say…

There are 9 QBs on veteran contracts for 2024:

These are 2024 cap hits for veterans making more than $2.5 million: Deshaun Watson ($55), Dak Prescott ($52), Kyler Murray ($52), Matt Stafford ($49.5), Pat Mahomes ($44), Josh Allen ($42), Aaron Rodgers ($41), Russell Wilson ($35), and Jared Goff ($32).

We don’t know for certain that Rodgers and Goff will still be on those contracts in 2024, or even in 2023.

The next-highest paid QB—other than Kirk Cousins having a $12.5 million cap hit for a void year—is Trevor Lawrence at $11.7 million. There are 9 QBs on veteran contracts in 2024.

“$30 million is middle of the road for QBs”

No. It’s not. Not if you’re Chafie Fields, the agent for Geno Smith. Not if you’re Geno Smith, who has consistently said since the end of the season that he wants to be paid a number that shows respect. Then $30 million would be the bottom of the QB market…not the “middle”.

It amazes me that this what I hear from people like veteran Seattle sports radio host Dave “Softy” Mahler say on the Cigar Thoughts podcast. It’s a basic misunderstanding, misrepresentation, or miscalculation that I saw shared by 710 Seattle Sports hosts Wyman & Bob on Wednesday:

I think it shows a lot of NFL ignorance on the part of people who cover the Seahawks and share that information with you for a living. Though I’ve been covering the NFL for nearly 10 years, I only write Seaside Joe as a side gig…at least until you guys help us get to 10,000 subscribers so please sign-up for a free or premium account today!

I am always befuddled as to how my obsession with the NFL turned into the content you see here, but somehow people in those positions talk about quarterback contracts and draft prospects like Anthony Richardson as if they’re no different than the people listening to them for guidance.

Paul Andrew Esden Jr @BoyGreen25

.@FieldYates said Jimmy Garoppolo will be a ‘complicated contract’ in free agency because of his durability issues but he believes $25M per year is ‘the floor’ for him & maybe it’s ‘$30M or $32M’ 😳👀 🎥 @nyjets at the #NFLCombine #TakeFlight #Jets

And don’t get me wrong, many of you in the Seaside Joe community know more about football than I do. Some of you are more knowledgeable about contracts and the salary cap than I am, which is how I learn so much by reading the comments. Some of you are more knowledgeable about Seahawks history than I am. Some of you are more knowledgeable about players on other teams. Some of you are more knowledgeable about the draft. Many of you are more knowledgeable than I am on college football prospects, Xs and Os, watching film, coaching, and so on.

I’ll say it again: The collective knowledge of the Seaside Joe community is vastly more than I will ever know about football.

What I’ll focus on is doing my best to continuously update and upgrade the coverage of the NFL here in large thanks to learning about football from you, in addition to the independent research you see going into the newsletter every single day for the last four years. I just don’t foresee how anyone could be a reader of this blog and not end up scratching their heads when they listen to Seattle sports radio, most podcasts, most people on ESPN, and most people on the NFL Network.

I’m positive that most of you know more than most of them.

Which is why I feel there’s never a shortage of misconceptions to clear up every year. This year and at this time, it’s this myth about quarterback contracts that keeps being shared, the “middle tier” $30 million quarterback.

If he exists in two weeks when free agency begins, then great. But as of now, there are only even nine quarterback contracts that go beyond next season and if we’re being really conservative (which GMs and agents will be for different reasons, and no other person who covers the Seahawks tries to be as realistic with you about the Seahawks) then we can call Goff an outlier who is only hanging on by a thread because of coaching and supporting cast. Rodgers is an outlier of a different kind. Russ, Dak, Kyler, Watson, and Stafford are all coming off of disappointing and concerning campaigns.

You’re left with Allen and Mahomes.

Take it from Wyman & Bob, they say that Mel Kiper’s mock is “great” because you tag Geno Smith (we’ve said that isn’t ideal, we’ve said that makes other moves impossible, we’ve said that Pete and John both hinted that’s a non-starter, but they don’t address the “how” at all) and you draft Anthony Richardson to develop “for a year”; I’ve made my case for Richardson as a third round pick, which anyone is allowed to disagree with, but you don’t get the sense from those who cover the team that they could pick him out of a lineup.

(Sorry, no college football jerseys or height chart allowed.)

It doesn’t seem like it would be that hard to do those jobs for a living and to have in-depth knowledge of the top-five quarterback prospects in a given class. I don’t even get to do Seaside Joe for a living, most of you work in other industries, and yet many of us can talk endlessly about Will Levis and Richardson, while discussing the actual implications of a franchise tag instead of the fairy tale that you get from sports radio, podcasts, and TV shows.

Most of those now just feel like extensions of social media banter.

Speaking of extensions, let’s get back to QB contracts and what really matters in the Geno Smith negotiations if you’re John Schneider or Chafie Fields. (Raise of hands: Which people who cover the team for a living know who Chafie Fields is? I’ll give a special shout out to John Gilbert at Field Gulls. Anyone else?) What would matter to me if I’m Chafie is the long-term veteran starter contracts signed since 2021. Anything else is too old or not lucrative enough.

These are QB contracts signed in the past two years that go at least three seasons (FG: Full Guarantee) (TG: Total Guarantee) (AAV: Average Annual Value):

Josh Allen—6 years, $258 million, $100m FG, $150m TG, AAV: $43

Dak Prescott—4 years, $160 million, $95m FG, $126m TG, AAV: $40

Aaron Rodgers—3 years, $150 million, $101m FG, $150m TG, AAV: $50

Deshaun Watson—5 years, $230 million, $230m FG, $230m TG, AAV: $46

Matt Stafford—4 years, $160 million, $63m FG, $120m TG, AAV: $40

Kyler Murray—5 years, $230 million, $103m FG, $160m TG, AAV: $46

Russell Wilson—5 years, $245 million, $124m FG, $165m TG, AAV: $49

That’s it. Seven contracts signed in the last two years and the lowest AAV is $40, which went to Dak and Stafford in 2022. That means that the BOTTOM of the market is $40 million annually. That’s not what the ‘middle tier QBs’ make, that’s what the ‘BOTTOM TIER QBS’ make on veteran starter contracts.

There is absolutely no reason on hell on earth for anyone to be counting rookie contracts and backup contracts and bottom-tier starters like Mitchell Trubisky when they’re discussing the “average salary” for quarterbacks or what Geno Smith’s agent will be negotiating with the Seahawks before free agency begins on March 15. The only reason to talk that way is out of ignorance.

Similarly, the number that matters the most is TOTAL guarantee, not necessarily FULL guarantee. Why?

A full guarantee is your 100-percent guaranteed money at signing, most of which comes in the form of a signing bonus. Dak got a $66 million signing bonus the minute he completed his contract with the Dallas Cowboys. Then typically two relatively small base salary amounts, which is what makes a QB’s first-year or two salary cap hits relatively small. Dak’s salary cap hit in 2021 and 2022 was $17 and $19 million. This year it is $49 million.

That’s another misconception being spread by so many in the industry: Either that Geno will make “$30 million per year” on his next contract as if it’s the same every season or that Seattle can merely absorb any amount of salary in the future without acknowledging that in order for Geno to cost $10-$15 million in 2023, he needs to cost $45 million in 2024.

Guaranteed.

A total guarantee is usually your full guarantee plus options that kick in the following year that are guaranteed for injury. The thing is: The penalties for cutting or trading a QB after one year are so impossible to overcome that there’s a 99% chance that the total guarantee will become fully guaranteed. If that were not the case, then Russ and Kyler would have been cut or traded this year. Cutting Russell Wilson not only leaves $107 million in dead money, it eats up an additional $85 million in salary cap.

Not possible.

So really when Russ signed his deal last September, it was indeed $165 million guaranteed. And it means that the BOTTOM of the market for a guarantee is $120 million.

I’m not aware of any other Seahawks writer or analyst even attempting to give an accurate picture of a long-term contract for Geno Smith, but remember I laid out plans of one, two, three, and four-year deals. I may even need to amend that now because the four-year contract ($152 million, $83 million fully guaranteed) probably needs to include a high total guarantee.

I even tried to make it less than Dak and Stafford because realistically there’s got to be hesitation to believe in Geno given that he only has a one-year track record of note as a starter.

Geno @GenoSmith3

I watched everybody change they thought I lost it!

But we’re not trying to make the contract fit for the Seahawks or for Seahawks fans. We’re trying to negotiate the best possible contract—if we’re Chafie Fields because that’s what Chafie Fields would do.

Chafie is going to say, “The worst QB contract of the last two years is four years, $160 million, $40 million per year, and $120 million guaranteed.” That’s what Chafie is going to say! He’s not going to take Softy’s word for it that Geno is a $30 million QB and that’s the middle of the road now. It’s not!

It means that you don’t get to re-sign Geno Smith to a three-year contract that you can cut him from after one season because now you’re ready to move onto the QB that you just drafted. You can’t even trade him without incurring a massive cap penalty. You would be signing him to the same deals as Stafford and Dak, essentially locking him onto the roster for the next two seasons and then maybe if you’re ready to absorb a huge penalty in 2025, you can move onto the next era. Wyman & Bob’s premise, Softy’s premise, they don’t actually make any sense.

“Well, then you franchise tag him! Duh!”

I’ll keep referring to the “How?” part and ask the professionals to show me how the Seahawks get better after they cut a bunch of players/don’t get free agents/lose their own free agents to keep Geno at $32.4 million.

It’s either that you’ve decided to go all-in on Geno Smith for a year with the belief that he’s going to become the type of QB who carries a mediocre team deep into the playoffs or you’ve decided to go all-in for Geno Smith for three years with the belief that he’s not going to hurt you as a $45 million quarterback in 2024 and/or 2025. There’s no middle ground. There’s no middle tier.

The educated guess I keep going with: The Seahawks won’t meet Chafie’s demands. Chafie won’t lower his client to Seattle’s demands because he knows that there will be teams who can afford more and he’s banking on the market of available starters staying shallow. He can’t do any worse by hitting the market. The Seahawks will apply the non-exclusive franchise tag or the transition tag by Monday or Tuesday. The legal tampering period starts on March 13 and Geno Smith will get to officially test the market.

The Seahawks will either trade Geno, rescind the tag, or he will return on a team-friendly deal because interest wasn’t as great as Geno/Chafie had hoped. There’s reason to think that all three are possible. There’s little reason to think that Geno Smith will make $32.4 million on the Seahawks in 2023. There’s little reason to think that Geno Smith will sign a three-year, $75 million contract.

It doesn’t take a lot of research to figure that out. Only a little.

Less than eight contracts worth.

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