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Dale Roberts's avatar

I'll disagree with Joe. I believe this is a deep draft but not a strong first round.

Why there will be multiple QBs taken in the first round of the 2023 draft:

I ran across a facinating article about the S2 Cognition test, the replacement for the ineffective Wonderlic. Here's the link but it's The Athletic so you may hit a paywall. https://theathletic.com/4226466/2023/02/24/nfl-quarterbacks-s2-cognition-test/

I'll give you some key quotes.

- "The S2 isn’t an intelligence test like the 50-question Wonderlic exam but rather measures how quickly and accurately athletes process information. It’s like the 40-yard dash for the brain."

-"Ally says the results are predictive. He couldn’t give out (Brock)Purdy’s exact score because it’s privileged information but said it was in the “mid 90s.” That’s about where Brees, the former Saints quarterback famous for lightning-fast decision-making, scored and where two of the top passers in the league now, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bills’ Josh Allen, also landed. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow took the test while at LSU and agreed to allow S2 to disclose the information. Of course he did — he scored in the 97th percentile."

-"The company recently looked at 27 starting quarterbacks. 13 had a career passer rating above 90. The average S2 score of those players was the 91st percentile. Those with passer ratings below 90 had much lower test results. “Those 14 guys, the average score was in the low 60s,” Ally said."

- "The highest S2 score in last year’s draft class, in fact, was turned in by a cornerback, Trent McDuffie, who started 15 games for the Chiefs, including the Super Bowl."

- HERE'S THE BIG ONE "“We’ve been doing the NFL draft for seven years,” Ally said. “From an S2 Cognitive perspective, last year was the worst year we’ve ever had score-wise. And this year is by far and away the best we’ve ever had, score-wise, at the quarterback position.”

Why there might be fewer taken:

Next year's top three are Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Michael Penix with McCall, Hartman, Leary and other also on the board. It looks like another banner year for QBs.

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Stephen Pitell's avatar

Yes, I adjust my trades based upon two criteria. One, did the other team call us, or did we call them? Second, are there any QB's a team might be interested in. The truth is (what a loaded phrase, usually the hair on the back of my neck stands up when I read that phrase, so I use it advisedly) we don't know what another team is thinking, and so we can only go by what has gone before, as Joe pointed out. Joe's trades are very conservative, but I will assume, we called them, and they needed some incentive to accept the trade. Historically, there are not lots of trades, but the Seahawks are involved more often than the average team.

I have also noticed it is easy to trade down and end up with too many rookies, which is an argument in favor of taking quality over quantity. In an interview on this years' draft, JS said this was a "deep draft" but what he didn't say is that it is thin at the top. I believe I could hear him say it to himself, but stopped before he blurted it out. I don't think 12 rookies this year is too much, but some might wash out and that would be normal.

I have noticed that two groups have so much depth that good players or players with exceptional traits are being pushed into the last round of the draft. CB's and Defensive Tackles. Tight Ends are also deep, but fizzle out in the last couple of rounds. I hear people say the RB group is also deep. Last year was deep in CB's and that is why we got two starters out of the 4th and 5th rounds.

Success in the draft depends on the quality of the draft and figuring out where it is so deep there are gems to be found. I believe it is interior defensive players. I hope we draft at least two. PFF has shaken up the draft order again, and it pushes DI's and CB's down even further, but I have my eye on taking a CB at 153 out of superstition and/or tradition. My eye has been drawn to Riley Moss our of Iowa or Starling Thomas V out of UAB, who has speed traits, but not long arms.

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