Geno Smith and where the NFL gets it wrong

Seahawks shouldn't overthink how they acquire their next "franchise quarterback": Seaside Joe 1672

Caleb Williams could be a generational quarterback prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft…and that’s fine. Perhaps he will even live up to his potential, if he doesn’t land in an unfortunate situation that ruins his development, and that singular moment could change the direction of a franchise as it did for the Indianapolis Colts with Peyton Manning in 1998.

But what about the other 31 teams? And what if Williams is destroyed by the Chicago Bears, a fate that many are hoping isn’t befalling Trevor Lawrence on the Jacksonville Jaguars right now as it did with arguably David Carr or Sam Bradford before him. Matthew Stafford wasn’t ruined by the Detroit Lions, but the pick didn’t change the franchise for anything more than competing to lose in the wild card round of the playoffs instead of competing for another number one pick.

And the Lions still lost 10+ games six times during the Stafford era.

Matthew Stafford is still in the NFL, still in the NFC, and it could be said that he still possesses the most talented arm in the conference. Since beating the Seattle Seahawks so easily in the second half of the L.A. Rams’ Week 1 road win, Stafford is 0-2 with a 59% completion percentage, two touchdowns, four interceptions, a 67.2 passer rating, and 6.55 yards per attempt.

One of four former number one overall picks in the NFC, Stafford currently ranks fifth from the bottom in the conference in passer rating, fourth from the bottom in completion percentage, he has thrown the second-most interceptions, and is tied with five others for the fewest touchdowns.

Of the three other former number one picks, rookie Bryce Young ranks last in the NFC in almost every major passing category, Baker Mayfield is on his fourth team in the last 18 months, and Jared Goff—yes, Jared Goff—has emerged as one of the conference’s best quarterbacks but only after he was traded as “scraps” in L.A.’s deal for Stafford two offseasons ago. At this point, Goff and Mayfield are not “former number one picks” as much as they are QB misfits.

And it is QB misfits who rule the NFC.

NFC North

Kirk Cousins, a fourth round pick who the Washington Moons gave up on in 2018 (the Moons are on their 11th starting QB since then), leads the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns, and ranks first in the NFC in passer rating at 108.2. I’m not necessarily saying that the Minnesota Vikings should extend Cousins, I have my doubts like you do that he will ever win a meaningful playoff game, but you’re still thinking in the context of “the big picture”.

“Who can you win a Super Bowl because of?”

Look in the context of the NFC North and ask who the best quarterback in that division is right now. It’s not Justin Fields, he has managed to out-live his stay longer than any other QB of his ability level in history. It doesn’t look like it’s going to be Jordan Love. Both were first round picks by those teams and both franchises traded up to go get them, with the Bears sacrificing a future first rounder to do it.

Compare that to Cousins, a 2012 fourth round pick and a 2018 free agent, and Goff, who was theorized to come to Detroit with a first round pick because the Rams wanted to unload his contract so bad.

Which teams in the NFC South won their bid to get a franchise quarterback? The ones that used first round picks or the ones that spent money for “mid” and got first round picks?

NFC South

I like Bryce Young and I still like the pick, although I’ve softened a little on the fact that the Panthers traded up for him and gave up so much. As it is, Carolina has the second-worst quarterback situation in the NFL through three weeks, saved only by the fact that former number two overall pick Zach Wilson has been the Jets’ true Achilles heel.

Who is the best quarterback in the South? It’s bad all over.

Excitement for Baker Mayfield’s 2-0 start has been tempered by the fact that the Bucs still aren’t a good offense and had 12 first downs against the Eagles last week in a 25-11 loss. Mayfield has averaged under 6 yards per attempt in two of his three starts with the one reprieve being a single game against Chicago, the worst all-around defense in the NFL, if the Broncos regress back to normal after allowing 70 points.

But here’s the thing: Mayfield has the highest passer rating in the NFC South (96) and the sixth-highest in the NFC. Of the five ahead of him, we’ve talked about two (Cousins, Goff) and we’ll get to the other three, but ALL FIVE were anything but “first round picks” at points in their careers.

One was a backup for the better part of a decade (you know who), one was the last pick of the draft, and one wasn’t acquired until days before this season.

Between Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr, Mayfield, Young, or Andy Dalton, the best QB in the NFC South could be Carr, and he will probably be ruled out this week because of a shoulder injury. Carr was discarded by the Raiders at the end of last season, Ridder was a third round pck in 2022, and Mayfield was no team’s first choice for a starter but Tampa Bay was stuck in a no-win situation after Tom Brady’s retirement.

To put it another way, Bryce Young’s backup, who had 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions with the Saints last season, could be the best QB in the NFC South at this very moment.

NFC East

Dak Prescott, a fourth round pick, has the highest passer rating in the NFC East at 90.6, which ranks seventh in the conference. (I’m not saying that passer rating is a be all, end all stat, it’s just a barometer. Choose your stat you’d like to use and tell me in the comments!)

Teams saw how the Eagles played offense last year and they came into 2023 with no respect for Jalen Hurts as a passer: Philadelphia is not only facing the highest-rate of cover-0 this season (no deep safety, defend the Eagles offense close to the line of scrimmage), but they have seen it a rate that is four times greater than the second-highest rate.

The result is that through three starts, Hurts is completing 67.7% of his attempts but with only 640 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, 6.9 Y/A, and a rating of 84.5. Hurts had a passer rating of 101.5 last season and 8.0 Y/A; his interception rate was 1.3% and so far this year it’s 3.2%. He is halfway towards matching his total number of picks in 2022.

As a runner, Hurts has almost the same number of rushing attempts per game (11 last season, 10 this season) but his yards are down from 50 per game to 33 and his YPC is down from 4.6 to 3.2.

Hurts is also a misfit, having been a second round pick in 2020, but his status got upgraded to something else when he got the fourth-richest contract in NFL history in the offseason. Even still, Hurts would be another example of a non-first round pick being better than a first round pick, which in his case could be the comparison between himself and former number two pick Carson Wentz.

Only 30 and having started seven games in Washington last year, Wentz remains out of the NFL so far and didn’t draw any interest from the Jets after Aaron Rodgers’ injury.

Daniel Jones, the sixth overall pick in 2019, is third from the bottom in the NFC in passer rating, ahead of only Fields and Young. He has two touchdowns and four picks, same as Stafford. All due respect to K.J. Wright, who did his best to hype up Jones as a legitimate NFL threat…Not. He is not.

A week ago, it seemed like Sam Howell could at least be better than Jones, if not closing the gap with Dallas and Philadelphia, but then he was reminded he plays behind Washington’s offensive line and Eric Bieniemy remembered that Howell is not Patrick Mahomes.

We’ve talked about 12 NFL teams so far and if we include both of Carolina’s options, the QB rankings would probably have four of the five first round picks (Young, Fields, Jones, Love) near the bottom of the NFC, with the fifth (Goff) being a player who was completely given up on by his original team. The best of the rest were backups, castoffs, or day two and day three picks. Only one of those (Hurts) went before the fourth round.

Is the NFL vastly overrating the value of someone like Caleb Williams? Should the Seahawks think it over for a long time before spending a first round pick on a quarterback in the near future when they could instead consider using one—or multiple—day three picks on options who could be underrated?

(Yes, like Grayson McCall, but this isn’t about him yet.)

Before we get to the NFC West, I had a request for a picture of Seaside Clark. (From Seaside Jay, and she sees him everyday.)

I go out to the living room last night and I was legitimately worried at first by what I saw. Don’t be confused by the flash, it was dark in the living room, do my eyes deceive me? In the words of Sean Penn in Mystic River, “Is that my dog in there?!! Is that my dog in there?!!?!”

Clark had smashed himself in between the cushions of the couch, I guess he’s found a new comfort spot. Could Geno Smith smash himself higher up in the QB rankings in the NFC this season and stay there comfortably? Let’s look.

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NFC West

Give as much credit as you need to and should give to Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ unique set of offensive weapons, the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft still has an argument for being the best quarterback in the conference right now at this moment. Brock Purdy ranks second in the NFC in passer rating (106.3) and he has four touchdowns, no interceptions, 8.1 Y/A (first in NFC, second in the NFL behind Tua Tagovailoa) and is first in the conference in QBR.

If we assigned MVP awards to each conference instead of in the entire league, I have little doubt that people would vote for Purdy at this very early stage of the season. Not because he’s the best player on the best team, but because he’s the quarterback on the best team—and he’s the complete opposite of being hte first pick in the draft!

The Seahawks seem to be working on a setup like that one, as best they can, by adding Charles Cross, Abe Lucas, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Noah Fant, Anthony Bradford, and Olu Oluwatimi in the last 18 months.

Geno Smith ranks second in the NFC in QBR (70.3) and fifth overall, fourth in passer rating (98.2) and fourth in completion percentage (68.9). Not only did the Seahawks get him for cheap as a free agent in 2019, as a backup from 2020-2021, and as an eventual starter in 2022, but he’s still basically the second-cheapest starter on a veteran contract in the NFL this season.

I may have my doubts about Geno, but he’s better than Jordan Love and Justin Fields, right?

Finally, Josh Dobbs, who wasn’t considered “good enough” to even be Deshaun Watson’s backup on the Browns this season and traded to the Cardinals for a late pick swap in 2024, ranks first in the NFC in completion percentage (72%), has no interceptions, and a 98.1 passer rating. Give Arizona offensive coordinator Drew Petzing all due credit, but Dobbs is still doing this with one of the least-heralded supporting casts and coaching staffs in the NFL. The last is Stafford, who might be the most talented, but he has been anything other than the “most valuable”.

Hasn’t the NFL, in some part, gotten their methods for acquiring a “franchise QB” completely wrong in recent history? It all looks so flopped upside down, backwards, and out of whack in the place you least expect it.

Whether it’s in 2024, 2025, or as soon as Drew Lock getting an opportunity earlier than unexpected (for whatever reason), the Seahawks will need to think about the next quarterback eventually.

Maybe don’t get caught up in the noise of “you NEED to get a GENERATIONAL QB PROSPECT” and overthink it. Look where they’ll least expect it.