This question of the importance of the QB and when to draft them and how much to pay to get them is very interesting. So many examples of teams spending the farm to get "the guy" only to find out he's not "the guy" for any number of reasons cited in this article/comments. Many other examples of dudes excelling that were lower draft choices. Doesn't inspire confidence that high draft position = success does it?
I am in the camp that the QB is very important, but he's not the end-all-be-all regarding how a team will do. There are many other important factors...like the other players, coaches, front office, etc. I think going all-in on the QB position is a reasonable risk when the player AND draft position are right on their own accord. However, more often than not those two don't line up.
For shits and giggles, I put together a spreadsheet of the top-rated QB's of all time. I used John Clayton's list (deceased but well respected), Sports Illustrated' list, and one from NFL.com (random choices). I compiled the top-10 QB's from each list, with their draft round and pick number. To account for the "modern era NFL" which is geared toward passing, and to avoid NFL/AFL draft complications for the old guys, I removed all of the old-school QB's like Otto Graham, Roger Staubach, Johnny Unitas, etc. That left the following list: Brady, Montana, Manning (listed in this order as the top 3 QB's of all time on all three lists)...along with Elway, Marino, Favre, Rodgers and Brees (in no particular order since the three lists all differ on these QB's). I then just AVERAGED the round and pick number for each list to get a sense of the importance of when a QB is drafted. As a last step, I AVERAGED the three lists round and pick numbers together, to get a final average. Results?
Clayton's list averaged round 2 pick 52. SI's list averaged round 2 pick 57. NFL.com's list averaged round 2 pick 52. All three lists averaged round 2 pick 54.
For me, that's good enough to conclude burning down the building to get the first or early pick is not a worthwhile exchange. If you sucked the year before and have an early pick, and like the QB available at that pick, perfectly fine to pick that player and see if you can develop him into your dream QB. In most cases it won't pan out but nothing ventured nothing gained. If you aren't picking early, I don't know that it's worth giving up draft capital or anything else to move up on unproven, unknown NFL-level prospects. Better to take the best player on the board that can fill a need.
I'm sure that stats geeks will slam my rudimentary methodology...that's okay. I just wanted to confirm my gut feel on QB drafting...a very risky business and not usually a good bet! Don't get me started on compensation for QB's, when drafted high or on later contracts!!
I prefer a QB like Brady or Geno willing to sign for less to help pay for other pieces. Russ was not one of those QB's willing to sign a team-friendly deal...bye bye Russ. I'll take my chances with Geno, who WAS willing to sign for less to help the team.
PS: A deep dive would be to analyze the greatest QB's of all time who also won the most superbowls, if that's really what we're focused on. I think you'd still find drafting QB's first or early is not the secret sauce.
When looking at QB's , I believe it is imperative to look at the team around them and the system they are asked to work in. Secondly look at who is coaching the O-line and how important the team feels that unit is. Yes ,Tom Brady is the GOAT, But through the years the system and the O-line also made it way easier for him!
And to add to my novel, I think this is what Kenneth's article is implying...QB drafting is a risky business and it's not easy to hit on a winner at that position.
Niner’s Nation has a good article about this relating to Purdy, but it’s true for others as well. Steve Young says that pre draft workouts measure physical traits, but the key to great QBs is in the mind. How does a QB react to game confusion, noise, pressure etc? That’s the difference between great and mediocre, not who’s biggest, fastest, strongest.
The situation that a player lands in is an important, but often overlooked factor in their development. Most #1 picks go to a bad team and are forced to start too soon, and it shows. Rogers, Mahomes, Young, Brady and others got to sit and learn before taking starting jobs. Russ was a talented guy, but he was lucky to go to a talented team where he could be a major ingredient, but not “the” ingredient, and the same is true of Purdy. Draft pundits, and some front offices, forget that it’s a TEAM game and even the greatest QB in history needs a decent supporting cast. Brady understood that and accepted lower salary to get those other players.
The situational importance is why I was okay with passing on Carter this year. He obviously has talent, but Seattle is a long way from his comfort zone, whereas Philadelphia is packed with previous teammates to increase his comfort. Witherspoon doesn’t seem to need that security blanket and also has talent.
Geno gets this all the time. It's like nothing he can do on the field can remove this from peoples minds. He could probably win a Super Bowl and people would still be saying "Yes, but that was because of who he had around him." Or "Yes, but the defense was excellent." On and on it goes.
For these reasons, I've decided to hop firmly on the Geno train. He played very well overall last year, he's played very well so far this year, other than that 2nd half against the Rams. His teammates love him. Coaches love him. You'll always be able to point out a throw here or there that wasn't great, but you can do that with any QB.
The truth is, he's playing like a very good QB, and there is no evidence that I've seen that will change all of a sudden. You won't find anyone more accountable, and more supportive of his teammates. You won't find another QB working harder.
Enough with the caveat's and proviso's. Enough with the "he's playing well, sure, but I still have my doubts", like everyone's trying to place anchor that they can point to later and say "See! I told you I had my doubts all along!". That's too easy.
Geno can sling the ball plenty good enough to win a tough playoff game. The rest of the team will improve around him. Time to get on the Geno train.
I have my “I ain’t write back” T shirt for “Blue Fridays.” As fans we always want better at every position, but Geno brings a lot of good and his looong apprenticeship makes him easy to root for!
There don’t seem to be many doubts that Geno is good--in my mind, he hasn’t answered the question of whether he is good enough. I don’t think we’ll have a good feel for that until the end of the season.
I think Geno is playing better and more consistently than Russ did, even in the Super Bowl year. He carries the offence more. Until he wins out we won’t know for sure. But that’s an all 53 thing too, not just the QB.
Walter Jones, Bobby Wagner, Cortez Kennedy, and Russell Wilson are the greatest players is the history of the franchise. Geno at his best is not even close to Russell on an average day.
Cmon now you know your sample is incomplete and skewing your results here. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Rodgers (in GB), Lamar, Tua and Lawrence have been "guys you win because of" for most of their careers and *spits* Watson was in a similar vein over his rookie contract. Having a well-constructed, well-coached roster is necessary to help develop your generational QB but it's not an either/or proposition, as the Chiefs and Rams showed us en route to their SB victories.
Personally, I think the quarterback is overvalued. Almost any of the current starting quarterbacks given a good offensive line would put up good numbers Smith is not an elite quarterback they do not need him to be. They have Walker and a promising rookie in the backfield outstanding receivers.
The offensive line is improving as well. I like the path, John and Pete have laid out. They just need a solid inside defensive tackle and if they get one next year, they may be in the Hunt for the Super Bowl.
I think JSPC are just the team to do exactly what you are asking at the end of the piece, Joe. They don't bow to any outside pressures and they have proven they won't overdraft/spend by going with Geno and Drew. I feel good about the future of the position, no matter who we draft whenever we do or don't draft them going forward, because these two are earning my trust, again, and again.
We should just change the name of the position from "Quarterback" to "Point Guard" and treat it as we would any of the key skill positions on the team, including WR, TE, RB and PG on offense and CB, DE, OLB on defense. An elite player at any of those positions might be the top contract on a team and justifiably so if the player is a true 'game changer.' The QB touches the ball on every play, you say? I say so what, so does the C.
That's really what Russ was as well when he first got to Seattle. He inherited Marshawn and Baldwin--Marshawn was 'the guy' on offense, not Russ. Baldwin got in his face on more than one occassion. A quarterback has to be a truly elite talent (=rare) in order to justify building an offense around his particular talents. Brady? Manning? Maybe Mahomes (looks like it? But if you can pick up a Dobbs at the deadline and Mr Irrelevant can start on Sunday for a playoff contender, trading draft capital to get into the number 1 slot (or top 10) seems like a losing proposition more often than not.
What a crapshoot drafting a high QB is. Could be HOF Peyton Manning or total bust Ryan Leaf. The culture and make up of the team from the ownership down may have a lot to do with it. Would Purdy do as well on the Jets or Chicago as he's doing in San Fran? They gave up on Trey Lance after all that draft capitol it took to get him. For all that was given up for Jamal, at least we know that he is great if only he can stay healthy. It's pretty amazing how lucky some teams are at getting QB's like Green Bay with Favre and Rogers, and how unlucky long standing teams like Chicago or the Jets just can't land one at all. We were lucky to have Russell when we did. I feel pretty good having Geno. Some people think he will revert to 2014 Geno. Why? He's building a late stage track record. He's mature, self aware, experienced, and has great tools and mechanics. He's become a true leader and has earned his teammates' respect since he got here. He's not too old yet and does not cost too much yet. He's coming into his own and we're the beneficiaries of that upswing. It's quite a luxury to be able to have him while the young defense and O-line matures and grows into something hopefully really special.
That maturity and desire to win is where his contract came from, I believe. He was willing to allow JSPC to build a contender around him. He has been paid millions over the years to be a backup. I really think he is at a point in his life and career that winning in the right place is more important than being paid as much as possible according to the market... and we all benefit from that.
Just because a QB is the debatable best coming out this year, doesn't mean he is better than ANY of the 32 starters, or backups, currently in the league. We hope they are, but they really haven't been, as a rule, have they? An exception here or there, or good enough to win, is what we look for in the absence of "generational talent". We have that in Geno, IMHO. We also have a leader and a great fit for the team and community. Maybe we can find a talent in training to put behind him next year. Perhaps even one from a certain college on the Carolina Coast? Hmm?
Right now the two guys I wouldn't mind having out of college at QB are Deion's kid and Grayson McCall. Right now neither would require a first rounder.
This question of the importance of the QB and when to draft them and how much to pay to get them is very interesting. So many examples of teams spending the farm to get "the guy" only to find out he's not "the guy" for any number of reasons cited in this article/comments. Many other examples of dudes excelling that were lower draft choices. Doesn't inspire confidence that high draft position = success does it?
I am in the camp that the QB is very important, but he's not the end-all-be-all regarding how a team will do. There are many other important factors...like the other players, coaches, front office, etc. I think going all-in on the QB position is a reasonable risk when the player AND draft position are right on their own accord. However, more often than not those two don't line up.
For shits and giggles, I put together a spreadsheet of the top-rated QB's of all time. I used John Clayton's list (deceased but well respected), Sports Illustrated' list, and one from NFL.com (random choices). I compiled the top-10 QB's from each list, with their draft round and pick number. To account for the "modern era NFL" which is geared toward passing, and to avoid NFL/AFL draft complications for the old guys, I removed all of the old-school QB's like Otto Graham, Roger Staubach, Johnny Unitas, etc. That left the following list: Brady, Montana, Manning (listed in this order as the top 3 QB's of all time on all three lists)...along with Elway, Marino, Favre, Rodgers and Brees (in no particular order since the three lists all differ on these QB's). I then just AVERAGED the round and pick number for each list to get a sense of the importance of when a QB is drafted. As a last step, I AVERAGED the three lists round and pick numbers together, to get a final average. Results?
Clayton's list averaged round 2 pick 52. SI's list averaged round 2 pick 57. NFL.com's list averaged round 2 pick 52. All three lists averaged round 2 pick 54.
For me, that's good enough to conclude burning down the building to get the first or early pick is not a worthwhile exchange. If you sucked the year before and have an early pick, and like the QB available at that pick, perfectly fine to pick that player and see if you can develop him into your dream QB. In most cases it won't pan out but nothing ventured nothing gained. If you aren't picking early, I don't know that it's worth giving up draft capital or anything else to move up on unproven, unknown NFL-level prospects. Better to take the best player on the board that can fill a need.
I'm sure that stats geeks will slam my rudimentary methodology...that's okay. I just wanted to confirm my gut feel on QB drafting...a very risky business and not usually a good bet! Don't get me started on compensation for QB's, when drafted high or on later contracts!!
I prefer a QB like Brady or Geno willing to sign for less to help pay for other pieces. Russ was not one of those QB's willing to sign a team-friendly deal...bye bye Russ. I'll take my chances with Geno, who WAS willing to sign for less to help the team.
PS: A deep dive would be to analyze the greatest QB's of all time who also won the most superbowls, if that's really what we're focused on. I think you'd still find drafting QB's first or early is not the secret sauce.
When looking at QB's , I believe it is imperative to look at the team around them and the system they are asked to work in. Secondly look at who is coaching the O-line and how important the team feels that unit is. Yes ,Tom Brady is the GOAT, But through the years the system and the O-line also made it way easier for him!
And to add to my novel, I think this is what Kenneth's article is implying...QB drafting is a risky business and it's not easy to hit on a winner at that position.
Hey quick question - why do you call the commanders the Washington Moons?
Niner’s Nation has a good article about this relating to Purdy, but it’s true for others as well. Steve Young says that pre draft workouts measure physical traits, but the key to great QBs is in the mind. How does a QB react to game confusion, noise, pressure etc? That’s the difference between great and mediocre, not who’s biggest, fastest, strongest.
Amen to that!
The situation that a player lands in is an important, but often overlooked factor in their development. Most #1 picks go to a bad team and are forced to start too soon, and it shows. Rogers, Mahomes, Young, Brady and others got to sit and learn before taking starting jobs. Russ was a talented guy, but he was lucky to go to a talented team where he could be a major ingredient, but not “the” ingredient, and the same is true of Purdy. Draft pundits, and some front offices, forget that it’s a TEAM game and even the greatest QB in history needs a decent supporting cast. Brady understood that and accepted lower salary to get those other players.
The situational importance is why I was okay with passing on Carter this year. He obviously has talent, but Seattle is a long way from his comfort zone, whereas Philadelphia is packed with previous teammates to increase his comfort. Witherspoon doesn’t seem to need that security blanket and also has talent.
"I may have my doubts about Geno,....."
Geno gets this all the time. It's like nothing he can do on the field can remove this from peoples minds. He could probably win a Super Bowl and people would still be saying "Yes, but that was because of who he had around him." Or "Yes, but the defense was excellent." On and on it goes.
For these reasons, I've decided to hop firmly on the Geno train. He played very well overall last year, he's played very well so far this year, other than that 2nd half against the Rams. His teammates love him. Coaches love him. You'll always be able to point out a throw here or there that wasn't great, but you can do that with any QB.
The truth is, he's playing like a very good QB, and there is no evidence that I've seen that will change all of a sudden. You won't find anyone more accountable, and more supportive of his teammates. You won't find another QB working harder.
Enough with the caveat's and proviso's. Enough with the "he's playing well, sure, but I still have my doubts", like everyone's trying to place anchor that they can point to later and say "See! I told you I had my doubts all along!". That's too easy.
Geno can sling the ball plenty good enough to win a tough playoff game. The rest of the team will improve around him. Time to get on the Geno train.
Toot, toot! All a-board!
I have my “I ain’t write back” T shirt for “Blue Fridays.” As fans we always want better at every position, but Geno brings a lot of good and his looong apprenticeship makes him easy to root for!
There don’t seem to be many doubts that Geno is good--in my mind, he hasn’t answered the question of whether he is good enough. I don’t think we’ll have a good feel for that until the end of the season.
I think Geno is playing better and more consistently than Russ did, even in the Super Bowl year. He carries the offence more. Until he wins out we won’t know for sure. But that’s an all 53 thing too, not just the QB.
Walter Jones, Bobby Wagner, Cortez Kennedy, and Russell Wilson are the greatest players is the history of the franchise. Geno at his best is not even close to Russell on an average day.
Cmon now you know your sample is incomplete and skewing your results here. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Rodgers (in GB), Lamar, Tua and Lawrence have been "guys you win because of" for most of their careers and *spits* Watson was in a similar vein over his rookie contract. Having a well-constructed, well-coached roster is necessary to help develop your generational QB but it's not an either/or proposition, as the Chiefs and Rams showed us en route to their SB victories.
Clark! MVP! Most valuable pooch!
"…and sleep like you think nobody's watching."
Just a reminder that the Australian Football Grand Final (Super Bowl) is on today if anyone’s interested. Hopefully it’s a close and exciting game.
Great to see Clark Jo and great look at the QB’s.
And don’t forget the hotly debated #1 pick Jameis Winston who’s sitting behind Carr, and the #2 pick Marcus Mariota that same year.
Great article!
Grayson and Clark together!
Personally, I think the quarterback is overvalued. Almost any of the current starting quarterbacks given a good offensive line would put up good numbers Smith is not an elite quarterback they do not need him to be. They have Walker and a promising rookie in the backfield outstanding receivers.
The offensive line is improving as well. I like the path, John and Pete have laid out. They just need a solid inside defensive tackle and if they get one next year, they may be in the Hunt for the Super Bowl.
I think JSPC are just the team to do exactly what you are asking at the end of the piece, Joe. They don't bow to any outside pressures and they have proven they won't overdraft/spend by going with Geno and Drew. I feel good about the future of the position, no matter who we draft whenever we do or don't draft them going forward, because these two are earning my trust, again, and again.
We should just change the name of the position from "Quarterback" to "Point Guard" and treat it as we would any of the key skill positions on the team, including WR, TE, RB and PG on offense and CB, DE, OLB on defense. An elite player at any of those positions might be the top contract on a team and justifiably so if the player is a true 'game changer.' The QB touches the ball on every play, you say? I say so what, so does the C.
Good point, um.. guard. Purdy is a good example of that in practice.
That's really what Russ was as well when he first got to Seattle. He inherited Marshawn and Baldwin--Marshawn was 'the guy' on offense, not Russ. Baldwin got in his face on more than one occassion. A quarterback has to be a truly elite talent (=rare) in order to justify building an offense around his particular talents. Brady? Manning? Maybe Mahomes (looks like it? But if you can pick up a Dobbs at the deadline and Mr Irrelevant can start on Sunday for a playoff contender, trading draft capital to get into the number 1 slot (or top 10) seems like a losing proposition more often than not.
I think it’s safe to say Mahomes is worth it. That said, I agree that QB is the riskiest position to draft high, given bust rate and salary range.
I would also like to propose changing Purdy’s name to UnIrrelevant.
Mr Irrelevant has too much ironic power and uniqueness. UnIrrelevant would make him just another guy.
Pete Carroll used to compare RW to Bart Starr, a five-time champion who terrific a distributing the football to the hot hand.
Amen
What a crapshoot drafting a high QB is. Could be HOF Peyton Manning or total bust Ryan Leaf. The culture and make up of the team from the ownership down may have a lot to do with it. Would Purdy do as well on the Jets or Chicago as he's doing in San Fran? They gave up on Trey Lance after all that draft capitol it took to get him. For all that was given up for Jamal, at least we know that he is great if only he can stay healthy. It's pretty amazing how lucky some teams are at getting QB's like Green Bay with Favre and Rogers, and how unlucky long standing teams like Chicago or the Jets just can't land one at all. We were lucky to have Russell when we did. I feel pretty good having Geno. Some people think he will revert to 2014 Geno. Why? He's building a late stage track record. He's mature, self aware, experienced, and has great tools and mechanics. He's become a true leader and has earned his teammates' respect since he got here. He's not too old yet and does not cost too much yet. He's coming into his own and we're the beneficiaries of that upswing. It's quite a luxury to be able to have him while the young defense and O-line matures and grows into something hopefully really special.
That maturity and desire to win is where his contract came from, I believe. He was willing to allow JSPC to build a contender around him. He has been paid millions over the years to be a backup. I really think he is at a point in his life and career that winning in the right place is more important than being paid as much as possible according to the market... and we all benefit from that.
Just because a QB is the debatable best coming out this year, doesn't mean he is better than ANY of the 32 starters, or backups, currently in the league. We hope they are, but they really haven't been, as a rule, have they? An exception here or there, or good enough to win, is what we look for in the absence of "generational talent". We have that in Geno, IMHO. We also have a leader and a great fit for the team and community. Maybe we can find a talent in training to put behind him next year. Perhaps even one from a certain college on the Carolina Coast? Hmm?
Right now the two guys I wouldn't mind having out of college at QB are Deion's kid and Grayson McCall. Right now neither would require a first rounder.
Petzing! I bet you zing your pet all the time!