Hendon Hooker could ABSOLUTELY be equal prospect to Will Levis, Anthony Richardson

Mocked to the Seahawks at #5, is Hooker a "reach" or is it just because people are afraid to push against narratives? Seaside Joe 1487

Somebody at ESPN must be subscribed to Seaside Joe.

A week ago, I became the first person in history to connect the Seattle Seahawks to Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker with the number five pick in the draft. Today, ESPN’s Mike Tannenbaum became the second.

OK, this one might raise some eyebrows, but hear me out. I think Hooker is really under-scouted right now, largely because he's coming off the torn ACL in his left knee. But I love his strong arm and 6-3 frame. Before the injury, Hooker looked great for the Vols. He led the nation in yards per attempt (9.5), threw two interceptions over 11 starts and was a top-10 passer in terms of completion percentage (69.6%). I see a potential franchise quarterback and someone who can lead an offense. Go watch his performance against Alabama if you disagree.

Now before you say, “Now you’ve lost it! I hate you Seaside Joe! Why did you do this to us?!?!” let me reiterate that the bonus article I wrote last week was titled “5 potential SURPRISE picks for the Seahawks” and was never intended to suggest that I believe the Seahawks will draft Hooker with the fifth overall pick. Here’s part of what I wrote, for those of you who are not yet subscribed to the Regular Joes premium section:

“No, now you’ve lost it! I hate you! I hate you, Seaside Joe! Why did you do this to us?!?!”

See, I told you that you would say this…

I know. You haven’t been told by people who can’t predict the future that Hendon Hooker isn’t going to be an early draft pick, therefore it can’t happen, right? Let’s keep in mind that not only do QBs sometimes go much higher than the predictions (Christian Ponder comes to mind, Daniel Jones also) but that this particular class does NOT have a consensus after Young and Stroud.

As a reminder, the lead-in to that article which is available for anyone to read, is a set of top-12 picks from each of the last six drafts that no-to-few mocks had going that early a month before the first round happened. And the concept of my article was not “These are picks you should expect to happen”, it was “These are picks that nobody expects to happen—but let’s keep in mind that every year there are picks that nobody expected to happen.”

My intention was to throw some names around that aren’t being connected to Seattle that early in the draft, but not necessarily to suggest that those specific names would go to the Seahawks at pick #5. Each of them made sense for one reason or another, but to ‘pick a surprise pick’ is a minor paradox, isn’t it?

It’s sort of like pulling random cards out of a deck: If the stated goal is to guess “Red or Black?” you have a 50/50 chance, but if the stated goal is to guess “Which suit?” then your odds go down to 25%. If the goal is to guess “Which face card?” though, then you might draw a ‘6’ and not even a face card whatsoever! To propose, “Who will be the SURPRISE pick for the Seahawks?” is like pulling a card out of a deck with the stated goal of “Which card?”

The odds are not very good.

*Unless you know magic and I’m no David Copperfieldgulls

But going back to Hooker and why I brought him up in that surprises article is that using his name at quarterback for #5 brings across a few points about the draft that I think are important and that I keep repeating in the face of so many other people saying “Ah nah, that’ll never happen! I know what’ll happen!”

1-I don’t view Will Levis as worthy of an early draft pick

2-I think teams are far more weary of Anthony Richardson’s college film resume than mock drafters seem to be

3-Too many people get “shocked” by picks like Tannenbaum’s on Tuesday for just ONE SIMPLE REASON: They think Tannenbaum’s pick is “crazy” and “stupid” not because of what they think about Hooker from their own experiences, but because of what they’ve been told to think about Hooker based on other people’s experiences

Can we stop discouraging unpopular opinions?

When a pick in a mock draft stands out that much, it makes a lot of people HATE the choice and the mock. But it makes me LOVE the choice and the person who made it. It doesn’t mean I agree with it—for the record, on the record and setting the record straight: I don’t believe the Seahawks are considering Hendon Hooker with the fifth overall pick—it just means that I’m not interested in investing time in the same repeated narratives.

The fact that there are so many people in this NFL media space now who run away from going against the narrative because they fear ridicule by Twitter, just confirms for me that people have self-censored themselves to such a degree that now you can’t believe anything you read from those who are in the grip of social media points.

NBC’s Chris Simms is not going to be “more right” or “more wrong” than anybody else, but what I like about Simms’ yearly positional rankings is that you can tell that he doesn’t factor in how other people have ranked the players. This is SO RARE to find anywhere else nowadays.

Simms has Hooker third and Levis “tied for fifth” (really sixth) with Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Tony Pauline’s big board (posted on March 2, but not sure if it’s been updated) has Hooker 29th overall and Levis 34th…but has Levis with a first round grade and Hooker with a third. (Richardson is 56th). Senior Bowl’s Jim Nagy has in a roundabout way been suggesting for months that this is a two-QB class.

Jim Nagy @JimNagy_SB

@ChrisTrapasso @MatthewColler If half the first round QBs historically bust then we should be comping two of Young, Stroud, Richardson or Levis to busts. OR we should be leaving two of them out of first round mocks. 🤷‍♂️

I don’t point this out to say “This guy must be right and everyone else has it wrong”. I point it out to emphasize that the narrative of “Levis and Richardson are clearly above Hooker” is false. It could end up as the case, but it is not clear and such a small percentage (no less as valid of voices as the majority) are willing to stick their neck out against the narrative.

Is this because they are “stupid” or is it because the majority of mock drafts are Copy/Paste jobs OR is it because people are afraid to be called “stupid” if they stick their neck out? I think it’s more related to a combination of the last two items, if only because we’re all a little stupid anyway, aren’t we? We do football fan fiction to make our days brighter until April 27th.

Pat McAfee @PatMcAfeeShow

"I don't feel like there has been enough talk about Hendon Hooker.. he's big, accurate and can move around" ~ @MoveTheSticks #PMSLive

The reason I think this is so important to emphasize right now is to point out the major flaw in criticizing people for against-the-narrative draft opinions.

This is the biggest flaw in these criticisms

Two years ago, I didn’t think Justin Fields was worth one first round pick, let alone two. This is by far the most controversial thing you can say on Twitter, I am surprised that the number one complaint levied against Elon Musk isn’t that people should be banned if they criticize Justin Fields.

If two years from now, Fields is enjoying the Super Bowl spotlight like Jalen Hurts at this moment, I’ll be “that stupid guy who got Fields wrong!” and can never be trusted.

But what about Zach Wilson and Trey Lance? What if in two years from now, the consensus number two pick in the draft is still labeled a “bust” and the QB who went right behind him is out of the league? Neither of those timelines look especially improbable at the moment. Why is that if the majority “agrees” on a probable outcome and it doesn’t happen, it’s an excusable misevaluation…but if a few people stick their neck out and say, “I just don’t see what everyone else is seeing” and they get it wrong, it’s because their opinions were stupid and invalid?

We all agreed that these two QBs were good, but disagreed on the third QB. Yet the only difference is that you got two evaluations wrong and I got three evaluations wrong. And let’s say that actually I hated Lance as a number three pick, so then we both got two wrong! But the focus isn’t on how you like Lance and I didn’t like Lance (again, going against the narrative), the focus is on how you liked the prospect who panned out.

Tony Pauline @TonyPauline

Too add a little more fuel to the fire, Hendon Hooker is QB3 on my board after Young and Stroud. Doesn't mean he'll be the 3rd QB selected. Means down the road I believe he'll be the 3rd best from this class.

Now flip it…

Let’s say that two years from now, defensive coordinators still know exactly what coverages to run against Justin Fields, the passing efficiency didn’t improve, and he’s on the bench in Washington. What if I actually got two-of-three QB evaluations right, and you got one-of-three? At what point does the post office call me and say, “There’s too many apology letters coming in today for us to handle! You have to come down here and collect them or the U.S. Postal Service will officially have to be shut down!!!”?

That doesn’t happen and that’s okay. By now, I’ve learned that “getting credit” is overrated and that even if such a world existed, I’d be busier writing apology letters than receiving them. If we’re keeping score (I LOVED Zach Wilson), I’d be afraid to look at mine.

I still think that it is absolutely imperative though that we ENCOURAGE unpopular opinions and STOP PILING ON against them like the Lucky Charms leprechaun because, “Oh, me lucky stars! The twitter king has bestowed upon me an extra seven likes and one retweet today because I became the one millionth person to criticize this opinion about Hendon Hooker! Rickity-dickity Rickity-doo! I like Levis, how-bout-you!?”

Boring.

SportsCenter @SportsCenter

Four QBs in the first five picks? 👀 @RealTannenbaum gave us a mock draft from a GM's perspective 📝 es.pn/40JOo6Y

The case against Hendon Hooker

Let’s get back to why Hooker may not be any crazier of a “reach” at #5 than Richardson or Levis. I’ll start with one simple concept and then move onto something else, but please if you come away today with ONE idea in mind let it be this:

When we talk about draft stock, we are dealing with ABSTRACT CONCEPTS and the heaviest weight pushing Hooker’s resume lower than Levis’s or Richardson’s is merely this: People told you that!

Bryce Young’s resume is stellar. There’s only one thing anyone talks about and we know what it is, but comparing Young in any other way to previous top-5 QBs, it’s a no-brainer. He belongs.

C.J. Stroud’s resume is close enough to previous top-5 or top-10 QBs to understand why he’s being put in this range, even as high as number one.

But to compare Hooker’s knocks, which I’ll get to momentarily, to the concerns circling around Levis and Richardson…how dare anyone think that they know how to do that and keep a straight face. Anthony Richardson needs to LEARN HOW TO PLAY FOOTBALL. Levis is five years removed from high school and he has yet to prove that a big arm and a big brain is enough for him to consistently have big games.

Doesn’t mean that I’m writing their futures and that we’ve seen all we need to see. It doesn’t mean that I would pick Hooker over one or both. It means that this flaw vs. that flaw is all conceptual; it’s not as important as fitting their strengths and flaws into the perfect situation.

PERHAPS what has happened is that Mike Tannenbaum has heard a rumor that there is an overwhelming amount of evidence that the Seahawks are in love with Hendon Hooker. Pete Carroll talked to the media and to NFL Network’s Steve Wyche this week, making a point to say that “there are four quarterbacks” in this class who stand out above the rest.

Steve Wyche @wyche89

The Seahawks are digging in on the rookie QB evaluations. What’s this mean for Geno Smith? Some interesting stuff here from HC Pete Carroll from our conversation Sunday at the league meetings.

But he didn’t say which four…

In the last week, six of the most recent 10 mock drafts posted on NFLMockDraftDatabase that have Hooker in the first round have him going to the Seahawks, but always with their second choice. We know that this doesn’t mean anything, it’s just opinion-having season and a lot of people are trying to squeeze five quarterbacks in their mock drafts.

But there is a growing anticipation that Hooker could be a first rounder, maybe because Daniel Jeremiah also believes that he’s better than the narrative is giving him credit for so far. Hence why I wrote what I wrote a week ago, predicting that now people would be more comfortable with first round talk and that’s all they need to it—the comfort to not be ridiculed by Twitter for not saying what was “approved” to be said:

There is no such thing as “QB3” in this draft class. If another month passes and the talk starts to center around Hooker because people aren’t worried about his injury or age anymore, the fact that analysts are starting to give him more first round respect today could push those dominoes in motion.

More than anything, I don’t want bringing up Hooker to be about the Seahawks taking Hooker at #5, but bringing light to the idea that there’s no clearcut QB3 and that Seattle might prefer a different QB in this draft than the ones we keep talking about at the top of the first round; that would be totally like Pete Carroll.

Tannenbaum went as far as to put Hooker at #5 perhaps because he knows Pete Carroll and John Schneider’s history for not giving a damn what grade they get for the draft. If momentum builds for Hooker to potentially stay in Tennessee (the Titans have pick #11), then obviously the Seahawks other first round pick isn’t good enough. And though fans could argue trading down before picking Hooker, that is considered a faux pas when it comes to quarterbacks…

If he’s a franchise QBOTF, then you don’t risk it by trading down first.

Again, I don’t think the Seahawks will pick Hendon Hooker at #5, but that’s mainly because of the position he plays and not because I’m appalled that anyone dare suggest that he’s underrated; I expect Pete to pound the table for Will Anderson or Jalen Carter, if either are available, and that’s the showdown I’m expecting on April 27th.

I want to address the three biggest red flags on Hendon Hooker and compare them to other situations to highlight how these are still just as much NARRATIVES as “Anthony Richardson just needs time to develop” and “Will Levis had no supporting cast.”

Yesterday’s post was HUGE

But first I want to say “THANK YOU” for everyone who made yesterday’s Jalen Carter vs. Will Levis post so popular. Wow, the comments blew up! It’s a little nerve wracking every time I bring up another writer, but so many of you have expressed frustration with the coverage on other sites and other communities that I feel it is important that at least one Seahawks writer lets you know: I’m on YOUR side.

I write for the fans, not for other writers. You are my priority. And I’m as sick with the behavior of some media members, as well as the perpetual “fake news” that permeates so much of what we read/hear/watch that it is important for me to have Seaside Joe serve not only as a place for good Seahawks content but also as a weapon in the fight against coverage that might be lacking in quality and/or reality.

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The “knocks” against Hendon Hooker

Age (Levis)

Will Levis was born on 6/27/1999 and Hendon Hooker was born 1/13/1998. Again, I just don’t understand how people can so confidently identify that difference as a major red flag vs. something that isn’t even a talking point for Levis. Bryce Young was born on 7/25/2001, so Levis is closer in age to Hooker than to Young.

I understand that for Young, it’s intriguing that he was dominant against SEC competition only 18 months out of high school. But when comparing this next tier of QBs, when we’re talking about, “Wow, I hope this QB we pick is starting for us for the next 10 years” that in 2033, Levis will be 34 and Hooker will be 35?

Someone, please explain to me how this matters. And by the way, right now in the NFC the longest-tenured QB to play with the team that drafted him: Dak Prescott, 2016. Second-longest? Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones, 2019. You better just be focused on a QB who might be good for your team in the next 3-4 years, because we have very few cases now of a team drafting a QB and he starts for them for 10-15 years.

One last note, many Seahawks fans have said they’d rather hold out for Michael Penix, Jr. in 2024. Penix (born: 5/8/2000) will be a 24-year-old rookie. Same as Joe Burrow, and not much different than Hooker.

Torn ACL (Burrow)

When Joe Burrow started Week 1 of the 2021 season (the one where he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl), he was three months shy of being 25 and 10 months removed from tearing his ACL.

At the start of 2023, Hooker will be 25 and he will be 10 months shy of tearing his ACL. Hooker tore his ACL on 11/20, Burrow tore his ACL on 11/23. Reports that Hooker will be medically cleared by Week 1 are strongly supported by historical evidence that we see over and over again. Tom Brady tore his ACL in 2008, at age 31, and then he played 14 more seasons without missing a single game because of injury.

The ACL thing with Hooker is just stupid. That’s all it is. I don’t care about it. If you avoid picking players because of football injuries, get out of the business because they can happen to any of them and we’re no good at predicting who will suffer from the most unless the injury history is extensive and particular; there’s nothing unusual about a torn ACL anymore.

System (Stroud)

It’s perfectly okay to be skeptical of how Hendon Hooker’s stats will change (69% completion, 9.6 Y/A, 58 TD and 5 INT over last two seasons alone) once he goes from a dominant college offense with wide open receivers to one that may not be as “easy” or as “forgiving” as what Tennessee had with HC Josh Heupel recently.

Hooker’s reputation now is that he’s airing it out to wide open receivers although Tennessee is a run-heavy offense (40 rush attempts to 32 pass attempts per game) “Hello, Pete Carroll” and his receivers (Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman) aren’t getting quite as much draft hype as some expected.

What I don’t understand is how the Vols offense is a “red flag” that NFL teams can’t go near, but because people want to love C.J. Stroud, the internet has done a masterful job of shutting down the “But, Ohio State…” narrative as much as they possibly can.

Truly can any one of you think of a single time in history that a college has had a positional run like Ohio State and receivers during Stroud’s two years at the helm: Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison, Jr., and Emeka Egbuka. That’s probably five first round WRs, including arguably the two best in 2022, the best in 2023, and the two-best in 2024.

Stroud can’t control having good receivers. Hooker can’t control his WRs being open.

zach ragan @zachtnt

“I can’t help that defenders can’t guard my receivers” — Epic response from Hendon Hooker

I don’t want anyone to be distracted by arguments of “So you’re saying Stroud is a bust?” or “So you’re saying Hooker is a steal?” It’s not about that: It’s about how people twist situations to fit their preconceived beliefs and take similar/exact situations out of context without explaining how one is a “red flag” but the other is “an overrated narrative”.

Whether it’s the ACL, the age, or the offense, I don’t see these concepts as being different enough from others to fully explain why Hooker at #5 is a “joke” but Levis or Richardson going outside the top-10 is equally “stupid”. Those are ideas that I think are planted in people’s heads well before the draft, leading to “slides” and “reaches” that are usually just poor draft evaluations by the media themselves. I don’t expect Hooker to go #5, but that’s largely based on what we’ve heard so far…and we see how good the masses are at drowning out dissenting opinions.