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Scott's avatar

What you didn’t address was the accumulation of risks. You mention multiple red flags, age, injury, scheme and why each is also a flag for someone else.

What is missing is how the accumulation of these flags likely skews the overall ranking. If I have to worry about more variables that is more risk to the team. Some are brighter red than others, but all are things a team has to be concerned about.

The injury flag has just barely been reported as he would be ready for opening day. I don’t think that has been known for long. Just bc someone heals from acl in 10 months doesn’t mean all do. New Seahawk Devin Bush was apparently just getting back to normal 2 yrs after an acl injury.

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PlasmaDragon's avatar

True, Hooker could have the benefit to a team that drafts him that doesn't need him to play right away to start the season on PUP or NFI and not have to carry 3 QBs

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Hooker has multiple concerns. Richardson and Levis have a long list of very concerning attributes as well. There are only 2 QBs in the top tier, probably even a 1A and a 1C for me.

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Scott B's avatar

Hooker fan here - my 3 observations:

-- Watch his tape -- I'm glad you mentioned the ALA game - go watch it if you have any doubts.

-- Played in strong SEC -- Every QB in SEC/B10 seems to have accelerated timing, a must for the NFL

-- Mechanics -- Strong pocket presence and overhead delivery - should work well for Waldron's "Shanihan/McVay" system.

As I would say with ANY 2023 QB: I'd hate to see him go to a team that needs him immediately.

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Charlie Swift's avatar

I’ve writing for a while that I think Hooker could definitely be on the Seahawks big board. I completely agree that he is likely a better prospect than Levis or Richardson. My thought was that they might pick him at 36 because I did not think he would fall past Tennessee, Detroit, and Los Vegas in the second. I also felt the Seahawks might trade down to take him at the end of the second or trade the 36 plus our 3rd to move up to the end of first to get the extra year. Now I am worrying about Detroit taking him at 18. Detroit has the same situation that we do and 18 is where teams generally start running out of players with a first round grade on their boards so why not take a QB? The only way to be sure of blocking Detroit is to take Hooker at 5. That being said I don’t think Seattle is going to take Hooker at 5. If the Seahawks stay at 5 and I believe they will then they are going to draft a player who will start immediately, which is why I don’t believe they will draft a QB at 5.

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doug Ballinger's avatar

at 5 hell no!

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PlasmaDragon's avatar

Why not?

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doug Ballinger's avatar

In my opinion he not worth drafting at 5, he'll be 27 if he sits for a year, I would consider him in round 2, just my opinion, I would be disappointed to say the least if they took him at 5.

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Jon's avatar

The only thing I know is that everyone is wrong about the QBs in one way or another. Everyone always mocks QBs so high. I'm skeptical of Hooker going in round one. I'm also skeptical of Levis going in the top 15. Bet you I'll be super wrong about something though, maybe it's my tacit assumption that Young and Stroud both go top 5.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Saw the CRAZIEST THING I'VE EVER SEEN WRITTEN IN A MOCK DRAFT the other day: I forget now who it was, one of the top guys, and he wrote "QBs always go earlier than the mock drafts say they will..."

WHAT??!?! Earlier???

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Scott B's avatar

I see the emphasis on drafting QBs similar to MLBs emphasis on drafting pitchers. I think teams get nervous and decide to swing-for-the-fences (if we only had a blue-chip QB!) instead of picking the best player available. Joe's article on TOP5 QBs (https://www.seasidejoe.com/p/nfl-draft-quarterback-rankings-2023-history) pretty much validates your comment.

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Stephen Pitell's avatar

The chances of the Seahawks taking any QB, other than possibly Anthony Richardson, with the #5 pick is really low. Don't forget Seaside Joe was not forecasting or predicting or even presenting his own personal wish, he was merely giving the pro's for drafting Hooker high for a QB needy team, and not many of the con's for the same proposition.

Richardson is different because he could be used as a wildcat QB right now for an extra win or two. And that would explain why they have already signed Drew Lock. A useful reason to carry 3 QB's on the 53 roster. Otherwise, not so much. And, LOL, DJ Dallas, who like so many football players, played QB in his past, is probably as good a passer as Richardson, and about equal as a runner. So even Richardson is a stretch to explain as a top five pick when they have already said they love Drew Lock as a future #1 QB.

I believe the odds favor the Hawks taking a defensive player at 5 or trade down if they can, but anything is on the table, including drafting Levis. I will cheer whoever is picked. I'm not in love with anything but trading down, and that's not always possible. Fun.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

I definitely don't think QB at 5

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Paul G's avatar

It will be interesting if the bottom drops out of the QB market, which could happen. What if the first three picks are Stroud > Anderson > Carter? What would the Colts do?

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Stephen Pitell's avatar

Mocks keep giving me the option to pick Stroud or Young or both of them in lots of my mocks. Tyree is moving up, and once two CB's followed Will Anderson, 1,2,3. The Colts took Richardson or Levis. Has the world gone crazy?

I'd give even money that it goes Stroud and then Young or visa versa. But it sure is a more mysterious draft than last year. What if The Panthers moved up to take Will Anderson, but was counting on Texas being willing to move up and help defray the cost? Seems crazy.

If we were not talking about the bottom feeders I would say such ideas were preposterous, but with this group of owners almost anything is possible. Normally, no team would spend a fortune moving up for a non-QB. The mystery continues.

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Charley Filipek's avatar

One comment was talking about the questions asked of Hendon Hooker 'n could very well be about the cuy-'n-paste group : "Goes to show these people legitimately don’t watch football. They know what they are told or what they hear. They don’t actually do research."

Similar to what someone we know says.

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Bill's avatar

I would love to see Hooker taken at 5. I think they should pair him with his receiver Hyatt too in a later round. Dude's highlights speak for themselves.

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Grant's avatar

There is still a month to go and Hooker keeps climbing into more first round and top ten conversations. It won't take long before he's consistently mocked before pick 20 and even at pick 4 to the Colts. I haven't even watched him play and have zero opinions on his abilities. It's just watching the draft stock market.

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Parallax's avatar

I'd be disappointed if Seattle took Hooker at 5 but not because I know he's not gonna be worth it or that he'll be less valuable than Levis or Richardson. Rather, it's because I think he could be gotten a lot lower and it would be a waste of draft capital. Do I know that? Of course not. But usually there is consensus about where guys belong on draft boards and I don't think a team should get such a huge man crush on one of these guys that they stop playing the percentages.

Right now, my bet is we land Carter at 5 or trade down. Of course I don't know; it's just a guess.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Something Pete really admires in John is his ability to read the draft. If JS posted a mock draft, he might blow us away like nobody we've ever seen. I don't think they necessarily get it as accurate as Pete says and they'll often say "Well, we thought a guy would be there and he wasn't" or they take a guy early and we just have to trust that they heard he was going to go right after that...but generally I trust that JS has good intel.

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zezinhom400's avatar

Yeah and I’ll never forget the looks on Pete and John’s faces right before the LJ Collier pick. Was the only time I can recall where they clearly misread the picks ahead of them, boxed into a corner and ended up with Collier. They were dumbfounded, is the word that comes to me. But last yr reading Walker and Lucas and Woolen, brilliant

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Parallax's avatar

With Collier they were drafting for need. Had they not traded down, they could have had Sweat.

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Doug's avatar

"The more you pay, the more it's worth."

If Hooker is taken at 1.5 he will be forever known as a 'top 5' QB pick in the draft, and if he does ok everyone (after the fact) will nod sagely and say, "yes we knew he was going to be a good one."

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Parallax's avatar

Maybe so but it would be nuts to draft him at 5 when the consensus is second round or lower. Really bad use of draft capital unless he pans out as a star. Makes more sense to take a chance on Carter in my opinion. Of course with the draft one never knows who will pan out.

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Doug's avatar

I get what you are saying but the "waste of draft capital" sticks in my craw a bit. Who knows who else might be interested and if PCJS really think he is 'the guy" then why not? Ex post we can say Sauce Gardner was a "waste of draft capital" when someone just as good could be taken in the fifth round.

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Joel's avatar

A year ago Woolen was considered an athletic freak who would be a project with a high potential ceiling but also a potentially low floor. I don't think most people really expected him to start Week 1 or be anywhere near as good as he was from training camp on (for instance, Sherman didn't start WK 1 of his rookie year). Gardner was a known quantity who paid off exactly as expected, which is why he went so high. Fair price for solid high-level talent.

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Doug's avatar

I bring Woolen into this conversation because CB is a premium position, and simply based on his measurables and combine performance Woolen should have been drafted higher than he was, or alternatively with "50-50 hindsight" Sauce was overdrafted in comparison because, hey--Woolen!

We *never* know until the players have a chance to play whether drafting player x at position y is a reasonable use of draft capital. QBs routinely go too high because of the FOMO (and hype). But on the flip side of that, given that QBs routinely DO go "too high" drafting Hooker at #5 would not be a misuse of draft capital if PCJS were convinced he is a good fit schematically for the Seahawks and could be QB1 in 2024.

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Parallax's avatar

Tortured logic, Doug. If Schneider takes him that high, he'd better be really good. GM's lose their jobs over botched top-of-the-draft picks. Collier ain't nothing by comparison. Same for McDowell.

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Parallax's avatar

There are surprise guys like Woolen who are way better than expected. In now way, in my view, does that make Gardner a bad pick. In fact, I'd say he was an excellent pick. Stingley is an example of someone who was over-drafted. If he performed as well as Woolen and Gardner, fans would be alright with it. But that rarely happens. That's why you have to keep an eye on value -- because there's no way to know who will be the next Woolen. It's fine to take a chance on someone as long as one doesn't overpay.

I think we reached a bit on Maffe. He was projected to go early on day three. He may still pan out but I think it's generally best to stay close to the consensus.

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PlasmaDragon's avatar

Wow! There are over ten things in this stack that I would Like it for...

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Mike McD's avatar

Joe has the experience to know all these shanigans that playout around draft time. But I wanted to look back and try to see what the Mock's had around this time last year, especially with someone like Stingley Jr (went 3rd overall in 2022):

Jeremiah (3/22/2022 https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-3-0-packers-nab-2-receivers-in-round-1-after)

Pick 20: Stingley

Lance Zierlein (3/8/2022 https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2022-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-steelers-nab-kenny-pickett-travon-walker-)

Pick 12: Stingley

Jason McIntyre (3/9/2022 https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2022-nfl-mock-draft-four-ots-climb-into-top-six)

Pick 23: Stingley

Mel Kiper (3/22/2022 https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2022/insider/story/_/id/33561330/nfl-mock-draft-2022-mel-kiper-new-predictions-all-32-first-round-picks-filling-team-needs-free-agency)

Pick 11: Stingley

Todd McShay (3/9/2022 https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2022/insider/story/_/id/33422215/nfl-mock-draft-2022-todd-mcshay-predictions-all-32-first-round-picks-following-combine-workouts-russell-wilson-trade)

Pick 15: Stingley

Overall the picks ranged from 11-23 and he ended up going 3rd overall. This is to the point that Joe is making ... these mock drafts can be total group think tanks. Where no one is willing to step out on a limb so instead of having a bunch of different opinions you get the same opinion regurgitated multiple times because no one wants to get flack for it.

In the end? Stingley goes 3rd everyone proclaims "What a surprise! no one could see that coming!" Then they do it all over again next year.

Point is: could Hooker go 5 or in the top 10? ABSOLUTELY. And no, that would not be some crazy event that would actually be typical of things that happen every year.

Personally, I think the case for him as QB3 is quite compelling.

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Parallax's avatar

Typically boneheaded move by the Texans. I'd like to think we wouldn't be that stupid. Of course I know we could revert to form. So maybe I can only hope and pray we follow last year's script and stay within the consensus on where guys should get taken.

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Bob Johnston's avatar

Not only did they overdraft Stingley they took the wrong cornerback.

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Greg Taylor's avatar

Where does the information for prospect draft profiles come from? I always read them when interested in a player but does the information come from actual scouts or just guys repeating cliche football phrases? Obviously I'm not going to spend the time (or money) to watch hours of game film on these guys and even if I did I wouldn't know what I was looking at/for, but it would be nice to know if what I'm reading has any merit. The one time I'm really skeptical is when the strengths and weaknesses have things that contradict each other.

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Stephen Pitell's avatar

Scouting begins in Little League for baseball, so I assume it's Pop Warner for football. As soon as players demonstrate talent scouts start their evaluations. You can look up the draft rankings for next years' crop of football players right now.

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Stephen Pitell's avatar

Highly interesting article. Not the Hendon Hooker is the #3 QB in this years' draft part of the article, though that in itself is highly interesting, but that is just the example you are using to make your case for the false narrative the media likes to employ en masse over or whatever other way one could name as thesis for your article.

Highly interesting article to me regarding the evolution of your style and or "voice". You were a celebrated writer at FG's when I first read one of your articles. It had that typical of your writing style of mixing what you had with breakfast and your musings on some football related subject. It had humor and humanity, and football all mixed together in a charming way. In some ways, I think that was Peak Kenneth, up until perhaps now.

Since then your writing has been slightly more mainstream journalism. Like your Rolling Stone gig. Then you got stuck managing FG's and that was what it was. It was good, but your writing might have been taking second place. You sort of disappeared to me for a while, and then showed up again as Seaside Joe, and I've been a loyal reader for a couple of years now, but only about one as a paid up Seaside Joey.

Today's article following yesterday's article feels sort of like a seminal moment in your career. You combined most of what I have liked about your philosophy and took it to the max. You took some chances, and you were as honest as you could be about a touchy subject yesterday. Today you put all of your anti-twitter, anti-clickbait, and anti-false narrative ideas into a neat story about Hendon Hooker and I just feel it was your best effort, and maybe even an identity growing and separating from the pack moment has arrived.

Anyways.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Wow, thanks! I think your analysis of me is pretty good although I do not feel I was very "good" at FG, and I'm really not fishing for compliments...I feel now that I was far too wacky and uncontrolled. And I'm grateful that this newsletter was kind of underground for the first 3 years because it allowed me to get better with daily reps without being read by too many people. I feel like these reps are helping a lot though and I'm still trying to find that balance between journalism and humor, etc. But don't want to over-do the humor anymore!

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Grant's avatar

I think Seaside Joe has great vision and makes excellent reads, but his excess height and unconventional movie choices make me a bit uneasy. If you make Joe a top 5 selection, however, your life won't be boring.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

I'm just glad I stopped sharing my music preferences!!!

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Grant's avatar

I actually watched "Too Old to Die Young" recently after you mentioned it and ended up loving it. I was on the fence after the first couple episodes, but once I committed to finishing it I did not regret the decision.

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Rozone's avatar

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

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Stephen Pitell's avatar

I wouldn't pass judgement until I find out if he puts pineapple on his pizzas.

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KHammarling's avatar

Is it worse to put Pineapple on Pizza, or Mayo in Coffee?

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Stephen Pitell's avatar

Mayo in coffee sounds disgusting, and I cannot pick it out of the coffee, but I can remove pineapple from a pizza.

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Bob Johnston's avatar

I just this second put my "topped with pineapple" pizza in the oven. I won't eat the crust but that pineapple adds just a touch of sweetness that makes the pizza.

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Stephen Pitell's avatar

Love pineapple. Love pizza like I love breath, but pineapple on a pizza is an abomination of galactic proportions. However, enjoy your pizza.

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Scott B's avatar

I know it requires a refined palate, but Canadian bacon & pineapple on a Chicago thick crust pizza, with thick, rich, tangy (not sweet) tomato sauce is a treat only the most discerning amongst us can appreciate. ;,O

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steve illman's avatar

An abomination is anything green on pizza. Basil, green pepper, etc..🤮

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Steve Nelsen's avatar

I posted a comment earlier today that Hooker was an interesting prospect but mocking him at 5 was ridiculous. I wish I had put more thought into my post after reading your article.

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Mike McD's avatar

Another excellent article.

I can't wait to see how this all plays out on draft day. It is so great to sit back and say ... wait why do people think Levis is better than Hooker? Or whatever other narrative is being pushed.

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