What you didn’t address was the accumulation of risks. You mention multiple red flags, age, injury, scheme and why each is also a flag for someone else.
What is missing is how the accumulation of these flags likely skews the overall ranking. If I have to worry about more variables that is more risk to the team. Some are brighter red than others, but all are things a team has to be concerned about.
The injury flag has just barely been reported as he would be ready for opening day. I don’t think that has been known for long. Just bc someone heals from acl in 10 months doesn’t mean all do. New Seahawk Devin Bush was apparently just getting back to normal 2 yrs after an acl injury.
I’ve writing for a while that I think Hooker could definitely be on the Seahawks big board. I completely agree that he is likely a better prospect than Levis or Richardson. My thought was that they might pick him at 36 because I did not think he would fall past Tennessee, Detroit, and Los Vegas in the second. I also felt the Seahawks might trade down to take him at the end of the second or trade the 36 plus our 3rd to move up to the end of first to get the extra year. Now I am worrying about Detroit taking him at 18. Detroit has the same situation that we do and 18 is where teams generally start running out of players with a first round grade on their boards so why not take a QB? The only way to be sure of blocking Detroit is to take Hooker at 5. That being said I don’t think Seattle is going to take Hooker at 5. If the Seahawks stay at 5 and I believe they will then they are going to draft a player who will start immediately, which is why I don’t believe they will draft a QB at 5.
The only thing I know is that everyone is wrong about the QBs in one way or another. Everyone always mocks QBs so high. I'm skeptical of Hooker going in round one. I'm also skeptical of Levis going in the top 15. Bet you I'll be super wrong about something though, maybe it's my tacit assumption that Young and Stroud both go top 5.
The chances of the Seahawks taking any QB, other than possibly Anthony Richardson, with the #5 pick is really low. Don't forget Seaside Joe was not forecasting or predicting or even presenting his own personal wish, he was merely giving the pro's for drafting Hooker high for a QB needy team, and not many of the con's for the same proposition.
Richardson is different because he could be used as a wildcat QB right now for an extra win or two. And that would explain why they have already signed Drew Lock. A useful reason to carry 3 QB's on the 53 roster. Otherwise, not so much. And, LOL, DJ Dallas, who like so many football players, played QB in his past, is probably as good a passer as Richardson, and about equal as a runner. So even Richardson is a stretch to explain as a top five pick when they have already said they love Drew Lock as a future #1 QB.
I believe the odds favor the Hawks taking a defensive player at 5 or trade down if they can, but anything is on the table, including drafting Levis. I will cheer whoever is picked. I'm not in love with anything but trading down, and that's not always possible. Fun.
One comment was talking about the questions asked of Hendon Hooker 'n could very well be about the cuy-'n-paste group : "Goes to show these people legitimately don’t watch football. They know what they are told or what they hear. They don’t actually do research."
I would love to see Hooker taken at 5. I think they should pair him with his receiver Hyatt too in a later round. Dude's highlights speak for themselves.
There is still a month to go and Hooker keeps climbing into more first round and top ten conversations. It won't take long before he's consistently mocked before pick 20 and even at pick 4 to the Colts. I haven't even watched him play and have zero opinions on his abilities. It's just watching the draft stock market.
I'd be disappointed if Seattle took Hooker at 5 but not because I know he's not gonna be worth it or that he'll be less valuable than Levis or Richardson. Rather, it's because I think he could be gotten a lot lower and it would be a waste of draft capital. Do I know that? Of course not. But usually there is consensus about where guys belong on draft boards and I don't think a team should get such a huge man crush on one of these guys that they stop playing the percentages.
Right now, my bet is we land Carter at 5 or trade down. Of course I don't know; it's just a guess.
Joe has the experience to know all these shanigans that playout around draft time. But I wanted to look back and try to see what the Mock's had around this time last year, especially with someone like Stingley Jr (went 3rd overall in 2022):
Overall the picks ranged from 11-23 and he ended up going 3rd overall. This is to the point that Joe is making ... these mock drafts can be total group think tanks. Where no one is willing to step out on a limb so instead of having a bunch of different opinions you get the same opinion regurgitated multiple times because no one wants to get flack for it.
In the end? Stingley goes 3rd everyone proclaims "What a surprise! no one could see that coming!" Then they do it all over again next year.
Point is: could Hooker go 5 or in the top 10? ABSOLUTELY. And no, that would not be some crazy event that would actually be typical of things that happen every year.
Personally, I think the case for him as QB3 is quite compelling.
Where does the information for prospect draft profiles come from? I always read them when interested in a player but does the information come from actual scouts or just guys repeating cliche football phrases? Obviously I'm not going to spend the time (or money) to watch hours of game film on these guys and even if I did I wouldn't know what I was looking at/for, but it would be nice to know if what I'm reading has any merit. The one time I'm really skeptical is when the strengths and weaknesses have things that contradict each other.
Highly interesting article. Not the Hendon Hooker is the #3 QB in this years' draft part of the article, though that in itself is highly interesting, but that is just the example you are using to make your case for the false narrative the media likes to employ en masse over or whatever other way one could name as thesis for your article.
Highly interesting article to me regarding the evolution of your style and or "voice". You were a celebrated writer at FG's when I first read one of your articles. It had that typical of your writing style of mixing what you had with breakfast and your musings on some football related subject. It had humor and humanity, and football all mixed together in a charming way. In some ways, I think that was Peak Kenneth, up until perhaps now.
Since then your writing has been slightly more mainstream journalism. Like your Rolling Stone gig. Then you got stuck managing FG's and that was what it was. It was good, but your writing might have been taking second place. You sort of disappeared to me for a while, and then showed up again as Seaside Joe, and I've been a loyal reader for a couple of years now, but only about one as a paid up Seaside Joey.
Today's article following yesterday's article feels sort of like a seminal moment in your career. You combined most of what I have liked about your philosophy and took it to the max. You took some chances, and you were as honest as you could be about a touchy subject yesterday. Today you put all of your anti-twitter, anti-clickbait, and anti-false narrative ideas into a neat story about Hendon Hooker and I just feel it was your best effort, and maybe even an identity growing and separating from the pack moment has arrived.
I posted a comment earlier today that Hooker was an interesting prospect but mocking him at 5 was ridiculous. I wish I had put more thought into my post after reading your article.
I can't wait to see how this all plays out on draft day. It is so great to sit back and say ... wait why do people think Levis is better than Hooker? Or whatever other narrative is being pushed.
What you didn’t address was the accumulation of risks. You mention multiple red flags, age, injury, scheme and why each is also a flag for someone else.
What is missing is how the accumulation of these flags likely skews the overall ranking. If I have to worry about more variables that is more risk to the team. Some are brighter red than others, but all are things a team has to be concerned about.
The injury flag has just barely been reported as he would be ready for opening day. I don’t think that has been known for long. Just bc someone heals from acl in 10 months doesn’t mean all do. New Seahawk Devin Bush was apparently just getting back to normal 2 yrs after an acl injury.
Hooker fan here - my 3 observations:
-- Watch his tape -- I'm glad you mentioned the ALA game - go watch it if you have any doubts.
-- Played in strong SEC -- Every QB in SEC/B10 seems to have accelerated timing, a must for the NFL
-- Mechanics -- Strong pocket presence and overhead delivery - should work well for Waldron's "Shanihan/McVay" system.
As I would say with ANY 2023 QB: I'd hate to see him go to a team that needs him immediately.
I’ve writing for a while that I think Hooker could definitely be on the Seahawks big board. I completely agree that he is likely a better prospect than Levis or Richardson. My thought was that they might pick him at 36 because I did not think he would fall past Tennessee, Detroit, and Los Vegas in the second. I also felt the Seahawks might trade down to take him at the end of the second or trade the 36 plus our 3rd to move up to the end of first to get the extra year. Now I am worrying about Detroit taking him at 18. Detroit has the same situation that we do and 18 is where teams generally start running out of players with a first round grade on their boards so why not take a QB? The only way to be sure of blocking Detroit is to take Hooker at 5. That being said I don’t think Seattle is going to take Hooker at 5. If the Seahawks stay at 5 and I believe they will then they are going to draft a player who will start immediately, which is why I don’t believe they will draft a QB at 5.
at 5 hell no!
The only thing I know is that everyone is wrong about the QBs in one way or another. Everyone always mocks QBs so high. I'm skeptical of Hooker going in round one. I'm also skeptical of Levis going in the top 15. Bet you I'll be super wrong about something though, maybe it's my tacit assumption that Young and Stroud both go top 5.
The chances of the Seahawks taking any QB, other than possibly Anthony Richardson, with the #5 pick is really low. Don't forget Seaside Joe was not forecasting or predicting or even presenting his own personal wish, he was merely giving the pro's for drafting Hooker high for a QB needy team, and not many of the con's for the same proposition.
Richardson is different because he could be used as a wildcat QB right now for an extra win or two. And that would explain why they have already signed Drew Lock. A useful reason to carry 3 QB's on the 53 roster. Otherwise, not so much. And, LOL, DJ Dallas, who like so many football players, played QB in his past, is probably as good a passer as Richardson, and about equal as a runner. So even Richardson is a stretch to explain as a top five pick when they have already said they love Drew Lock as a future #1 QB.
I believe the odds favor the Hawks taking a defensive player at 5 or trade down if they can, but anything is on the table, including drafting Levis. I will cheer whoever is picked. I'm not in love with anything but trading down, and that's not always possible. Fun.
One comment was talking about the questions asked of Hendon Hooker 'n could very well be about the cuy-'n-paste group : "Goes to show these people legitimately don’t watch football. They know what they are told or what they hear. They don’t actually do research."
Similar to what someone we know says.
I would love to see Hooker taken at 5. I think they should pair him with his receiver Hyatt too in a later round. Dude's highlights speak for themselves.
There is still a month to go and Hooker keeps climbing into more first round and top ten conversations. It won't take long before he's consistently mocked before pick 20 and even at pick 4 to the Colts. I haven't even watched him play and have zero opinions on his abilities. It's just watching the draft stock market.
I'd be disappointed if Seattle took Hooker at 5 but not because I know he's not gonna be worth it or that he'll be less valuable than Levis or Richardson. Rather, it's because I think he could be gotten a lot lower and it would be a waste of draft capital. Do I know that? Of course not. But usually there is consensus about where guys belong on draft boards and I don't think a team should get such a huge man crush on one of these guys that they stop playing the percentages.
Right now, my bet is we land Carter at 5 or trade down. Of course I don't know; it's just a guess.
Wow! There are over ten things in this stack that I would Like it for...
Joe has the experience to know all these shanigans that playout around draft time. But I wanted to look back and try to see what the Mock's had around this time last year, especially with someone like Stingley Jr (went 3rd overall in 2022):
Jeremiah (3/22/2022 https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-3-0-packers-nab-2-receivers-in-round-1-after)
Pick 20: Stingley
Lance Zierlein (3/8/2022 https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2022-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-steelers-nab-kenny-pickett-travon-walker-)
Pick 12: Stingley
Jason McIntyre (3/9/2022 https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2022-nfl-mock-draft-four-ots-climb-into-top-six)
Pick 23: Stingley
Mel Kiper (3/22/2022 https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2022/insider/story/_/id/33561330/nfl-mock-draft-2022-mel-kiper-new-predictions-all-32-first-round-picks-filling-team-needs-free-agency)
Pick 11: Stingley
Todd McShay (3/9/2022 https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2022/insider/story/_/id/33422215/nfl-mock-draft-2022-todd-mcshay-predictions-all-32-first-round-picks-following-combine-workouts-russell-wilson-trade)
Pick 15: Stingley
Overall the picks ranged from 11-23 and he ended up going 3rd overall. This is to the point that Joe is making ... these mock drafts can be total group think tanks. Where no one is willing to step out on a limb so instead of having a bunch of different opinions you get the same opinion regurgitated multiple times because no one wants to get flack for it.
In the end? Stingley goes 3rd everyone proclaims "What a surprise! no one could see that coming!" Then they do it all over again next year.
Point is: could Hooker go 5 or in the top 10? ABSOLUTELY. And no, that would not be some crazy event that would actually be typical of things that happen every year.
Personally, I think the case for him as QB3 is quite compelling.
Where does the information for prospect draft profiles come from? I always read them when interested in a player but does the information come from actual scouts or just guys repeating cliche football phrases? Obviously I'm not going to spend the time (or money) to watch hours of game film on these guys and even if I did I wouldn't know what I was looking at/for, but it would be nice to know if what I'm reading has any merit. The one time I'm really skeptical is when the strengths and weaknesses have things that contradict each other.
Highly interesting article. Not the Hendon Hooker is the #3 QB in this years' draft part of the article, though that in itself is highly interesting, but that is just the example you are using to make your case for the false narrative the media likes to employ en masse over or whatever other way one could name as thesis for your article.
Highly interesting article to me regarding the evolution of your style and or "voice". You were a celebrated writer at FG's when I first read one of your articles. It had that typical of your writing style of mixing what you had with breakfast and your musings on some football related subject. It had humor and humanity, and football all mixed together in a charming way. In some ways, I think that was Peak Kenneth, up until perhaps now.
Since then your writing has been slightly more mainstream journalism. Like your Rolling Stone gig. Then you got stuck managing FG's and that was what it was. It was good, but your writing might have been taking second place. You sort of disappeared to me for a while, and then showed up again as Seaside Joe, and I've been a loyal reader for a couple of years now, but only about one as a paid up Seaside Joey.
Today's article following yesterday's article feels sort of like a seminal moment in your career. You combined most of what I have liked about your philosophy and took it to the max. You took some chances, and you were as honest as you could be about a touchy subject yesterday. Today you put all of your anti-twitter, anti-clickbait, and anti-false narrative ideas into a neat story about Hendon Hooker and I just feel it was your best effort, and maybe even an identity growing and separating from the pack moment has arrived.
Anyways.
I posted a comment earlier today that Hooker was an interesting prospect but mocking him at 5 was ridiculous. I wish I had put more thought into my post after reading your article.
Another excellent article.
I can't wait to see how this all plays out on draft day. It is so great to sit back and say ... wait why do people think Levis is better than Hooker? Or whatever other narrative is being pushed.