“This is strange because MVS has been on the same preseason plan as Seattle’s two starters, JSN and Kupp. This is how the starters are treated…”
Fair enough, except that JSN and Kupp are established starters whereas MVS is an established marginal talent. We’re talking about a guy who averages two receptions a game (including last year). That he may well make the team is more a comment on the other receivers than anything else.
I don’t get the pundit concern about the 50-50 ball, which is a synonym for “bad pass.” No QB in today’s NFL of 65-70% completion % and 2% interception % will deliberately put up a throw that has a 50% chance of being incomplete or intercepted.
No arguments on your rankings, except I would swap the Whites. Ricky is probably more valuable as a special teamer, but Cody is getting high praise coming out of camp. But I take that with a grain of (White) salt.
I've watched a handful of condensed games and MVS certainly had some drops as advertised. I almost wondered if it's a vision thing, and if he doesn't need lasik surgery or something. But I'm sure a professional football team would test basic things such as eye health. But look at some of these in a one minute video of "lowlights:" https://www.tiktok.com/@nasty.rice.sports/video/7304467011420261678?lang=en Maybe it's just concentration, but it feels like he doesn't see well. I remember that last one. It was Monday Night Football vs the Eagles with under 2 minutes left and would have been the go ahead touchdown. He has a highlight reel too, so I'm not suggesting that it's mostly "ooof" plays, but there are certainly too many of them.
Jake Bobo is the best blocker on the team and that's important in Kubiak's offense. Special teams matter too, and coverage is not looking like a strength through two preseason games. Surely we don't cut one of our better coverage guys. He also looks like the best contested catcher to me. The end zone fade he caught his second TD on was something Grubb tried but used Lockett or Metcalf for -when he had the right guy all along sitting on his bench. I know Bobo is limited due to his speed and athleticism, but he has a role. I think we about have to keep 6 WR again.
I still wonder if we cut Lock if he wouldn't be available if Darnold went down. That way we would only need to rely on Milroe for part of one game. Maybe Lock is in more demand than I think though. The squeeze on cut day is going to be something else on offense this year.
I think you have the receivers in the right order. I think MVS makes the roster. A few other thoughts.
- Kubiak is not going to scheme WR's open deep in the pre-season. He'll play that card starting week 1 at San Fran. He's not giving them anything ahead of that. So MVS won't 'pop' like some fans probably want him to. Patience.
- MVS biggest weakness (I think) is his lack of Special Teams value, well, and dropped balls. SSJ wrote about the changes in kick-off rules earlier in the week, and that will raise certain skills value this year. In an ideal world anything lower than WR2 should be adding some ST value. I don't think he does.
- The only world where MVS get dropped or traded and is not on the 53 is if; They have a younger talent they don't think they can get him to their practice squad, they want to keep that young talent, and that young talent adds a ton of value to ST's. That does sound a bit like Dereke Young, doesn't it? But has he done enough?
On an unrelated note, I went back and watched every snap Sundell played on Friday night, and he was very good for almost every one of them. Got to his targets, and moved efficiently to the second level on multiple occasions, and took good angles when getting there. He looked better than the Oakland game by far, and he didn't look bad in that game. Olu may have already lost his spot. We may hear this week from MacDonald the the starting 5 are Cross, Zabel, Sundell, Bradford (who also did very well), and Lucas (who looked amazing).
I'm telling you, Abe Lucas, if healthy all season, will be going to the Pro Bowl. Pay the man.
Since he is an X receiver, wouldn't it stand to reason he has a lower catch rate since most of the balls thrown his way are deep and more likely to be contested while sprinting down field? I'm not trying to answer my own question, I am really asking. My brain assumes that an deep threat receiver would have a lower catch rate due to higher margin of error.
I posted this in my post but look at some of these: https://www.tiktok.com/@nasty.rice.sports/video/7304467011420261678?lang=en There's not a bad pass among them, and all hit his hands. The 4th one was low and would have been a heck of a catch and the 5th one was contested but the other 4 were catches you expect an NFL reciever to make every time.
Yes, he does, and that rate is 8.9%. Drop Rate is based on "catchable" balls, which is subjective. It is even more subjective when many more routes are tightly covered 1v1 balls for him than other WRs because of how many more deep routes he runs. He almost runs them exclusively without as much benefit from crossing routes or schemed open shorter routes as most WRs. Also note that more NFL offenses, like this one, are moving to shorter routes and "taking what the defense gives us" because of the proliferation of deep shell coverages around the league to combat the high-powered modern offenses. His stats are the 1st to get muted because of these defensive schemes. But, we still need a threat down there to keep those defenses playing that style and giving us more short and intermediate route cushions. His presence are his presents, you might say.
We have to stop looking at his value as only "caught balls". KK wants/ needs a guy who can be a downfield vertical threat to stretch the defense. Otherwise JSN and Kupp get blanketed horizontally in a defense compact to the line of scrimmage.
Just watched the video KenJoe provided. Am impressed with Mr. Marquez Vasquez-Scantling. He may well leave his drops behind 'n ball-out. His movements look very smooth.
Kupp - The Guru. With Bobo as his young Padawan. Both of these guys rely on craft. Bobo is taking extensive notes.
MVS with Horton competing to be the fastest pilot in the galaxy.
And frankly, if JSN is out Horton would need to fill the role.
This group of five might not be at the top of the national highlight reels, but they bring three distinct skill sets, and there’s enough redundancy to have depth. In addition, they won’t get a ton of volume. On most plays they will only be mentioned if they spring another player with a well-timed block. They’re here to create results in the real world, not to spin fantasies.
Excellent object lesson for us all. I was IDK, then No, then Yes. And I admit I agree with the last rational argument I hear. So I am gullible. I admit it. At least sometimes I am.
Truthfully, I have been going back and forth on this subject since MVS was signed. I did see in one practice he caught 4 TD's. Unless I dreamed that, I haven't seen it repeated by anyone else, including SSJ in today's article.
But I agree, the coaches are treating him like any veteran who has already made the team. Period. That seems undeniable, and I doubt they change their minds because of your last point, no one else can take their place because of the speed factor.
An added point not on subject: It seems to me if you remove the passes which are more like handoffs like that swing pass he throws to someone. But also, that throw to Bobo for a TD was a safe, near handoff type of pass. If you go through all the passes we might not have thrown more than 15 passes beyond the line of scrimmage. Maybe less.
Kubiak watched injuries ruin his season last year. He knows how deep his Trench Bench needs to be, so we can count these huge young bruisers as Must-Haves in the brutal Run Game he is delivering. We watched him spread the ball around to a dozen different Ballers, not one of which involved an explosive deep threat. I suspect our proven RBs won't make the transition to the practise squad before someone grabs them up. An MVS vacancy will allow him to fill one more spot crucial to the sustainable Run Game outcomes. And who's to say MVS will get snapped up elsewhere? How many WRs are eagerly waiting for a shot at deep threat plays used rarely by this team? How about our own bench slipped over to the practise squad?
I voted yes-no-no but meant to vote no-no-no. I think Bobo takes his spot because of his red zone usage not only for jump balls in the end zone, but also for his run blocking. Also, Bobo plays special teams.
When it comes to jump balls, I imagine that is where Arroyo will step in. Maybe not 50 yard bombs, but 25 to 30 yards catches against mismatched with added YAC.
The roster to me is leading to versatility. Players that can do more than one thing. And if they do one thing, it is exceptional. So if all MVS can do is run deep balls on PA, he's expendable.
I forgot to mention, MVS being seen as a starter like Kupp and JSN. I think its similar to the Noah Fant cut.
MM cut Fant because hes confident in the young TE room, especially Barner imo. In MVS' case, I think MM was waiting to see if someone would step up enough to boost that confidence enough to cut MVS. And I think Horton has. I think Dareke Young is even proving a case as backing up Horton in case of injury.
Let's see if I get this right...MVS drops 50 % of passes and Bobo catches every thing tossed his way, blocks well and is a stalwart on STs and he's on the bubble not MVS? Really.
After watching a slow Steve Largent's entire career, I would put getting open and actually catching the ball above a spreed reciever who drops half his passes!
If Horton keeps showing, he should be WR 3.I think there will be better speed WRs options after final roster cuts! After all, it's called reciever for a reason.
It's a matter of semantics, yes, but itnis important that the staistic is names correctly for the proper interpretation of the data. 42% catch rate is not the same as a 58% drop rate. These two metrics are not the opposite sides of the same measurement. They have different parameter definitions. Drop rate is based on throws that were "catchable", and that term is very subjective. Catch rate is simply the # of catches divided by the # of total targets, which is mostly objective.
Something to remember is that catch rate has almost a perfectly linear rate of decline for all receivers as distance of throw (air yards) increases, so the more deep routes someone runs, the lower their catch rate will be. He is almost exclusively a deep route runner, and anyone who runs as high a percentage of deep routes as he does will have a much lower catch rate.
Bobo is not comparable to MVS for things like catch rate because he isnt the same type of reveiver (see this article). Also, MVS' drop rate IS high, it just isn't near 50%. It's around 10%, which is high for an NFL receiver, but some of that can be explained by the fact that he runs more (higher %) deep routes than anyone else in the league. His career yards per catch is 17.4. If he had enough catches to qualify last year and had an average season, he would have been 2nd in the NFL. He has specialized in deep routes his whole career.
I don't think MVS is going anywhere just yet, his role just looks less clear given our pension for running the ball and Hortons ascension. I still think we need more depth at WR, but Bobo looks like he's ready to fill in if needed which helps. Can't wait for regular season games. Two preseason games is enough. Especially if we have a joint practice...just my opinion.
Damnit Kenny! That was a helluva an ankle breaker ride you took us on. I went from yes to no back to yes again. Brilliant writing and as usual, solid logic!
This shows that everything depends on context. With the info I had at the first poll, I was IDN. Then with the additional info before the 2nd poll, I voted MVS doesn't make the 53. After the additional info I had no doubt he makes the roster. Context!
I was "makes the team" in all the polls, simply because if he were anywhere near the bubble, he wouldn't have played so few preseason snaps. He sat out the entire Oakland game and I think played only the Darnold series against KC. Or said in other words, he and Darnold have had the same number of preseason snaps. Using that criteria, one could argue he's as certain on the 53 as Darnold is
Well, not as solid as Darnold, but I'll be surprised if MVS is cut, unless it's temporary and a handshake deal with JS. He's done that before to get past those first few days of cut downs. He needs to protect Bobo, but not Young. He needs to protect Ivey and Pili maybe and Bohanna maybe. I doubt they'd get past cut down waivers. That's why I'll be surprised they pick anyone up at cutdown, I don't think there is room.
“This is strange because MVS has been on the same preseason plan as Seattle’s two starters, JSN and Kupp. This is how the starters are treated…”
Fair enough, except that JSN and Kupp are established starters whereas MVS is an established marginal talent. We’re talking about a guy who averages two receptions a game (including last year). That he may well make the team is more a comment on the other receivers than anything else.
I don’t get the pundit concern about the 50-50 ball, which is a synonym for “bad pass.” No QB in today’s NFL of 65-70% completion % and 2% interception % will deliberately put up a throw that has a 50% chance of being incomplete or intercepted.
No arguments on your rankings, except I would swap the Whites. Ricky is probably more valuable as a special teamer, but Cody is getting high praise coming out of camp. But I take that with a grain of (White) salt.
I've watched a handful of condensed games and MVS certainly had some drops as advertised. I almost wondered if it's a vision thing, and if he doesn't need lasik surgery or something. But I'm sure a professional football team would test basic things such as eye health. But look at some of these in a one minute video of "lowlights:" https://www.tiktok.com/@nasty.rice.sports/video/7304467011420261678?lang=en Maybe it's just concentration, but it feels like he doesn't see well. I remember that last one. It was Monday Night Football vs the Eagles with under 2 minutes left and would have been the go ahead touchdown. He has a highlight reel too, so I'm not suggesting that it's mostly "ooof" plays, but there are certainly too many of them.
Jake Bobo is the best blocker on the team and that's important in Kubiak's offense. Special teams matter too, and coverage is not looking like a strength through two preseason games. Surely we don't cut one of our better coverage guys. He also looks like the best contested catcher to me. The end zone fade he caught his second TD on was something Grubb tried but used Lockett or Metcalf for -when he had the right guy all along sitting on his bench. I know Bobo is limited due to his speed and athleticism, but he has a role. I think we about have to keep 6 WR again.
I still wonder if we cut Lock if he wouldn't be available if Darnold went down. That way we would only need to rely on Milroe for part of one game. Maybe Lock is in more demand than I think though. The squeeze on cut day is going to be something else on offense this year.
I think you have the receivers in the right order. I think MVS makes the roster. A few other thoughts.
- Kubiak is not going to scheme WR's open deep in the pre-season. He'll play that card starting week 1 at San Fran. He's not giving them anything ahead of that. So MVS won't 'pop' like some fans probably want him to. Patience.
- MVS biggest weakness (I think) is his lack of Special Teams value, well, and dropped balls. SSJ wrote about the changes in kick-off rules earlier in the week, and that will raise certain skills value this year. In an ideal world anything lower than WR2 should be adding some ST value. I don't think he does.
- The only world where MVS get dropped or traded and is not on the 53 is if; They have a younger talent they don't think they can get him to their practice squad, they want to keep that young talent, and that young talent adds a ton of value to ST's. That does sound a bit like Dereke Young, doesn't it? But has he done enough?
On an unrelated note, I went back and watched every snap Sundell played on Friday night, and he was very good for almost every one of them. Got to his targets, and moved efficiently to the second level on multiple occasions, and took good angles when getting there. He looked better than the Oakland game by far, and he didn't look bad in that game. Olu may have already lost his spot. We may hear this week from MacDonald the the starting 5 are Cross, Zabel, Sundell, Bradford (who also did very well), and Lucas (who looked amazing).
I'm telling you, Abe Lucas, if healthy all season, will be going to the Pro Bowl. Pay the man.
I’m not an O line expert but Sundell looked good to me too. What a great season if the O line played all season together!, fingers crossed.
MVS has a skill set that can be a tool for the Hawks so he will make the team. It appears to to his inconsistency that is holding back his
Since he is an X receiver, wouldn't it stand to reason he has a lower catch rate since most of the balls thrown his way are deep and more likely to be contested while sprinting down field? I'm not trying to answer my own question, I am really asking. My brain assumes that an deep threat receiver would have a lower catch rate due to higher margin of error.
Very good point, Tim. If'n a receiver catches 50% of bombs campared to 80% of screens, coaches will take the long distance.
I posted this in my post but look at some of these: https://www.tiktok.com/@nasty.rice.sports/video/7304467011420261678?lang=en There's not a bad pass among them, and all hit his hands. The 4th one was low and would have been a heck of a catch and the 5th one was contested but the other 4 were catches you expect an NFL reciever to make every time.
Well, you're correct, Chuck.
You are correct, but he also has a higher drop rate than any starting WR, too.
Yes, he does, and that rate is 8.9%. Drop Rate is based on "catchable" balls, which is subjective. It is even more subjective when many more routes are tightly covered 1v1 balls for him than other WRs because of how many more deep routes he runs. He almost runs them exclusively without as much benefit from crossing routes or schemed open shorter routes as most WRs. Also note that more NFL offenses, like this one, are moving to shorter routes and "taking what the defense gives us" because of the proliferation of deep shell coverages around the league to combat the high-powered modern offenses. His stats are the 1st to get muted because of these defensive schemes. But, we still need a threat down there to keep those defenses playing that style and giving us more short and intermediate route cushions. His presence are his presents, you might say.
We have to stop looking at his value as only "caught balls". KK wants/ needs a guy who can be a downfield vertical threat to stretch the defense. Otherwise JSN and Kupp get blanketed horizontally in a defense compact to the line of scrimmage.
Just watched the video KenJoe provided. Am impressed with Mr. Marquez Vasquez-Scantling. He may well leave his drops behind 'n ball-out. His movements look very smooth.
You had me thinking and chuckling at the same time. Terrific writing SJ.
I’m a Yes, Yes, and Yes.
JSN - The Star. He stands alone.
Kupp - The Guru. With Bobo as his young Padawan. Both of these guys rely on craft. Bobo is taking extensive notes.
MVS with Horton competing to be the fastest pilot in the galaxy.
And frankly, if JSN is out Horton would need to fill the role.
This group of five might not be at the top of the national highlight reels, but they bring three distinct skill sets, and there’s enough redundancy to have depth. In addition, they won’t get a ton of volume. On most plays they will only be mentioned if they spring another player with a well-timed block. They’re here to create results in the real world, not to spin fantasies.
So, you're these ARE the droids we're looking for. Got it. ✅️
Supposed to say "so you're SAYING..." SMH @ myself
Excellent object lesson for us all. I was IDK, then No, then Yes. And I admit I agree with the last rational argument I hear. So I am gullible. I admit it. At least sometimes I am.
Truthfully, I have been going back and forth on this subject since MVS was signed. I did see in one practice he caught 4 TD's. Unless I dreamed that, I haven't seen it repeated by anyone else, including SSJ in today's article.
But I agree, the coaches are treating him like any veteran who has already made the team. Period. That seems undeniable, and I doubt they change their minds because of your last point, no one else can take their place because of the speed factor.
An added point not on subject: It seems to me if you remove the passes which are more like handoffs like that swing pass he throws to someone. But also, that throw to Bobo for a TD was a safe, near handoff type of pass. If you go through all the passes we might not have thrown more than 15 passes beyond the line of scrimmage. Maybe less.
Sam looked sharp.
Kubiak watched injuries ruin his season last year. He knows how deep his Trench Bench needs to be, so we can count these huge young bruisers as Must-Haves in the brutal Run Game he is delivering. We watched him spread the ball around to a dozen different Ballers, not one of which involved an explosive deep threat. I suspect our proven RBs won't make the transition to the practise squad before someone grabs them up. An MVS vacancy will allow him to fill one more spot crucial to the sustainable Run Game outcomes. And who's to say MVS will get snapped up elsewhere? How many WRs are eagerly waiting for a shot at deep threat plays used rarely by this team? How about our own bench slipped over to the practise squad?
I voted yes-no-no but meant to vote no-no-no. I think Bobo takes his spot because of his red zone usage not only for jump balls in the end zone, but also for his run blocking. Also, Bobo plays special teams.
When it comes to jump balls, I imagine that is where Arroyo will step in. Maybe not 50 yard bombs, but 25 to 30 yards catches against mismatched with added YAC.
The roster to me is leading to versatility. Players that can do more than one thing. And if they do one thing, it is exceptional. So if all MVS can do is run deep balls on PA, he's expendable.
I forgot to mention, MVS being seen as a starter like Kupp and JSN. I think its similar to the Noah Fant cut.
MM cut Fant because hes confident in the young TE room, especially Barner imo. In MVS' case, I think MM was waiting to see if someone would step up enough to boost that confidence enough to cut MVS. And I think Horton has. I think Dareke Young is even proving a case as backing up Horton in case of injury.
Let's see if I get this right...MVS drops 50 % of passes and Bobo catches every thing tossed his way, blocks well and is a stalwart on STs and he's on the bubble not MVS? Really.
After watching a slow Steve Largent's entire career, I would put getting open and actually catching the ball above a spreed reciever who drops half his passes!
If Horton keeps showing, he should be WR 3.I think there will be better speed WRs options after final roster cuts! After all, it's called reciever for a reason.
It's a matter of semantics, yes, but itnis important that the staistic is names correctly for the proper interpretation of the data. 42% catch rate is not the same as a 58% drop rate. These two metrics are not the opposite sides of the same measurement. They have different parameter definitions. Drop rate is based on throws that were "catchable", and that term is very subjective. Catch rate is simply the # of catches divided by the # of total targets, which is mostly objective.
Something to remember is that catch rate has almost a perfectly linear rate of decline for all receivers as distance of throw (air yards) increases, so the more deep routes someone runs, the lower their catch rate will be. He is almost exclusively a deep route runner, and anyone who runs as high a percentage of deep routes as he does will have a much lower catch rate.
Bobo is not comparable to MVS for things like catch rate because he isnt the same type of reveiver (see this article). Also, MVS' drop rate IS high, it just isn't near 50%. It's around 10%, which is high for an NFL receiver, but some of that can be explained by the fact that he runs more (higher %) deep routes than anyone else in the league. His career yards per catch is 17.4. If he had enough catches to qualify last year and had an average season, he would have been 2nd in the NFL. He has specialized in deep routes his whole career.
Dareke Young is a 4.4 receiver who along with Horton and Arroyo as an occasional X receiver can make you forget all about MVS in a hurry.
One of the fun-est things of the pre-season games for me was Bobo the kick returner.
Jack of all trades indeed. If you didn’t smile when that happened, there’s something wrong with you 😁.
I don't think MVS is going anywhere just yet, his role just looks less clear given our pension for running the ball and Hortons ascension. I still think we need more depth at WR, but Bobo looks like he's ready to fill in if needed which helps. Can't wait for regular season games. Two preseason games is enough. Especially if we have a joint practice...just my opinion.
Damnit Kenny! That was a helluva an ankle breaker ride you took us on. I went from yes to no back to yes again. Brilliant writing and as usual, solid logic!
This shows that everything depends on context. With the info I had at the first poll, I was IDN. Then with the additional info before the 2nd poll, I voted MVS doesn't make the 53. After the additional info I had no doubt he makes the roster. Context!
Yeppers, i went from Don't know > Yes > No. It Does show that KenJoe is persuasive.
Did the same thing
I was "makes the team" in all the polls, simply because if he were anywhere near the bubble, he wouldn't have played so few preseason snaps. He sat out the entire Oakland game and I think played only the Darnold series against KC. Or said in other words, he and Darnold have had the same number of preseason snaps. Using that criteria, one could argue he's as certain on the 53 as Darnold is
Well, not as solid as Darnold, but I'll be surprised if MVS is cut, unless it's temporary and a handshake deal with JS. He's done that before to get past those first few days of cut downs. He needs to protect Bobo, but not Young. He needs to protect Ivey and Pili maybe and Bohanna maybe. I doubt they'd get past cut down waivers. That's why I'll be surprised they pick anyone up at cutdown, I don't think there is room.