Horton-MVS battle finds clarity, but not in the way you think

What the Seahawks will do about Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Tory Horton, if you're listening to the coaches

Seaside Joe does not tend to root for players to make the Seahawks roster. In most cases, rooting is inconsequential. There’s no need to root for Leonard Williams or Jalen Milroe to make the roster because that train has already left the station. On the other end, about one-third of the team only has a realistic shot at making the practice squad.

That only leaves “bubble players” and there are barely more of those on the 90-man roster than there are fullbacks.

Mike Macdonald could have opened training camp with ~50 players slated to have jobs on the 53, give or take a couple, and many onlookers (including some of who have blogs or YouTube channels) have felt that 30-year-old veteran receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling is one of those bubble players. Before we go any further, what do you think:

The greatest sin committed by MVS is that he’s not that young, not that good, and not that versatile, meaning that he’s also not competing for a job as a kickoff or punt returner. These are also fair points!

• Veteran WRs constantly lose jobs to rookie contract WRs

• Seattle’s search for KR/PR options with Kenny McIntosh on IR and Steven Sims missing weeks of practice with a hamstring injury leaves coaches in need of keeping a number somewhere and MVS won’t help there

• $3 million paid to MVS is in the past; the team could call it a “sunk cost”

• MVS is not a starting WR: a career catch rate under 50%!

Over the past 20 years, a 49.5% catch rate is the seventh-lowest for any player with at least 400 career targets and over the past 10 years, MVS has the lowest catch rate of any receiver with 400+ targets; he trails the next-lowest mark (Kenny Stills, 53.9%) by a wide margin. MVS also has a success rate of 42% on his targets, the lowest for any wide receiver in the past 10 years, keeping company with players like Robbie Chosen, Hollywood Brown, and Nelson Agholor.

If the Seahawks are basing their final 53 decisions on age and past statistics, without regard that releasing MVS does little to help the cap space already allocated to him ($3.95), parting ways would make sense if the coaches also feel that Tory Horton and Jake Bobo deserve to be upgraded.

Now I wonder would any of you change your vote from the previous poll based on this new information:

Okay, now we’ve seen how a veteran receiver can be dismissed throughout training camp unless he’s Cooper Kupp. And as I said earlier, Valdes-Scantling making or not making the roster does not affect me in the slightest: I don’t root for players to make the Seahawks, I root for the Seahawks to win games and whether or not the players they keep will help them do that will be determined weeks from now, not at final cuts, and I can’t predict the future.

If I knew that Connor Williams would be bad and retire midseason, I would have rooted for him to be cut last year. I would have rooted for Jerome Baker to be cut. Oh all the things I “could have” known!

But instead of trying to predict the future, I read between the lines…and sometimes the lines require no detective work and so far everything done and said by Seahawks coaches points to keeping Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

The question of Valdes-Scantling’s place on the roster practically comes down to: Do you believe a blogger’s opinion that MVS won’t make the team because he seems boring or do you think the Seahawks coaches are lying to protect MVS’s feelings?

Coaches could be hiding the truth about MVS, situations like that do happen often. But the context clues and circumstantial evidence also point to MVS making the final 53-man roster out of training camp. Anything else would be fine with me, the objective observer, but are we being objective when we write him off because he’s less exciting on paper than Horton?

#1 - MVS early signing

This is not major evidence, but chronologically it makes sense to start here. The Seahawks signed MVS at the very start of free agency, implying a sense of urgency to get a receiver of his type before another team did. The connection to Klint Kubiak with the Saints in 2024 also says that MVS was vetted by the offensive coordinator and this was Kubiak’s X and deep shot receiver choice over many other available options.

#2 - Quality performance with Kubiak

MVS played the best football of his career when he signed with the Saints midseason to replace Rashid Shaheed (highlights). When Derek Carr was the quarterback, MVS caught 12-of-17 targets for 288 yards, 4 touchdowns, 17 yards per catch, 24 yards per catch. When asked why he signed with the Seahawks, MVS gave the credit to Kubiak:

“That was all Klint. When he took the job here, I think that was a great fit. They lost some really good receivers, so it kind of opened up the door for me to come in and step in for two hell-of-a-players. I’m very excited (to reunite with Kubiak) and I was able to put up big numbers in a short amount of time with two head coaches and three quarterbacks.

It’s a very similar offense to what I ran in Green Bay, same Shanahan family. I had a lot of success with that play action and taking shots down the field. That’s what I’ve done really well in my career. (KK) has also given me opportunities to show what I can do in other ways.”

So we know that the Seahawks wanted MVS and that they wanted him because Kubiak wanted him after having a lot of success together in a short period of time, largely due to his skillset and familiarity with the offense. Without overrating the differences in assignments or the learning curve, Tory Horton is coming out of an air raid, spread offense at Colorado State, which is to be expected of college receivers these days and could mean that he is not as prepared for a Sunday with Kubiak as MVS because that is much different.

#3 - Kubiak still likes MVS as a “big time player”

Four days ago, Klint Kubiak had this to say about Valdes-Scantling:

“He’s had a really good camp. He’s battling with a lot of guys, but his speed really shows up. Coach (Macdonald) has done a phenomenal job of keeping the top off of our offense with some of their coverage looks. Some of the stuff that he’s shined, hasn’t shown up as much, but I see the guy winning on his routes, see the guy with a great attitude, and see a big time player for us.”

This is where we get into the weeds of whether or not you think coaches are hiding the truth about MVS or if we should take them at face value. On one hand, Kubiak does say that MVS is “battling” with other guys, implying a competition. That could be for WR3 or that could be for a spot on the 53.

On the other hand, Kubiak says that MVS is going to be “a big time player” for the Seahawks. Kubiak highlights speed that stands out among his peers, winning routes, and that it’s not really fair to judge him based off of practices because of the defense they’re going against. This echoes what Macdonald said about MVS two weeks ago:

"He's doing a good job," Macdonald said of Valdes-Scantling. "The things that he does I think are going to show up more when we're live, with separating a defense, getting into that third level to open up some of those intermediate routes."

And Macdonald does say that MVS is competing with Horton, calling it “a fun competition to watch”. Macdonald was also challenging MVS to step up if he feels that the competition “doesn’t go your way initially”. But it also isn’t true that MVS has done nothing in camp, as some have implied, with ESPN’s Brady Henderson noting at one point that he made “the biggest play of camp” as of a couple weeks ago.

#4 - Treated the same as starting WRs

Some people have framed MVS’s lack of preseason reps as proof that he’s falling behind Horton and Bobo:

Two preseason games later, and the same fans are still waiting to see Valdes-Scantling make his first reception as a Seahawk. Valdes-Scantling didn’t play in last week’s game, and wasn’t targeted during the opening drive (his only appearance) of Friday’s game.

This is strange because MVS has been on the same preseason plan as Seattle’s two starters, JSN and Kupp. This is how the starters are treated: They didn’t play in the first preseason game, they played one series (with the starters) in the second preseason game, then they were pulled from the game. To say that it matters that MVS was not targeted on one series is to create a narrative that only applies to him and nobody else; Cooper Kupp was also not targeted. They had the same preseason!

I’ll say this for a third time because this is when some people might think I’m defending MVS: I don’t care if MVS gets cut. It would be advantageous for the Seahawks if Horton and/or Bobo and/or Young were better.

This is not the “Seaside Joe defends Marquez Valdes-Scantling” section of the article. This is the “What have we actually observed when we remove bias?” section and framing MVS’s preseason as a negative — when it’s the exact same as other starters — is a biased narrative to point in the direction you want, not a fact.

If MVS was in danger of being cut (and maybe he is!) it would actually be more logical to keep him in the game and target him than it would be to give him one target-less series and pull him. If MVS is having trouble standing out in practice, why not give him one or two opportunities on Friday to showcase what he can do? Worst case scenario, Seattle has a little bit of recent film to use as trade bait!

Conversely, Bobo played into the second half of the game, with the non-starters, and Horton played multiple series and would have continued if not for an ankle injury. Macdonald downplayed the severity of the ankle, noting Horton could have continued in a real game but they wanted to be cautious. He did not say that Horton had “played enough”. Young also played long after the starters were pulled and he’s actually having the same preseason that he had in 2022 and 2024.

The preseason evidence points towards MVS already having secured a role with the team, not away from it. If the Seahawks cut MVS anyway, that’s fine with me, but it would be contrary to the usual habits we see from coaches.

#5 - Coaches care about types, not stats

I’ve seen some chatter about how “I’ve never wanted Valdes-Scantling on my fantasy team” which is a great place to start the conversation for how much fantasy football has negatively impacted the perception of quality football players because they aren’t in the top-25 for yards or touchdowns. But coaches need receiver types, they don’t need 5-6 receivers who will all be targeted 100+ times per season and help your fantasy team.

• JSN and Kupp are similar types, with Kupp getting most of his work in the slot (Y) and JSN trending to play outside like Tyler Lockett (Z)

• They are slower and won’t take the top of the defense

• Jake Bobo is even slower than those two and more of a swiss army knife than a well-defined X, Y, Z receiver; he’s no threat to MVS’s role

• Young is also not like MVS; Cody White and Ricky White III are well outside of the competition

This is why everything has boiled down to one-vs-one: MVS and Horton.

Horton is fast and he’s pretty tall, albeit about 1.5” shorter than MVS and Lance Zierlein says Horton struggles on the 50/50 balls expected of a deep shot threat:

"Big press corners are likely to slow him and take a bite out of his effectiveness, but motion and bunch formations could solve that problem. He can knife through the heart of zone defenses and is competitive at the catch point but can be overtaken on 50/50 balls by length and size. If healthy, Horton has WR3 upside."

It’s impossible to say who is faster between Horton and MVS today, but we know that both of them have more of it than the others in camp.

While both receivers have head-to-head advantages, many of Horton’s positives are more externally-praised (age, rookie, hope, fantasy football) and many of MVS’s positives are more coach-favored (experience, knows Kubiak playbook, less need for coaching + can help teach it to others, unique skillset specific to important role). Michael Bumpus highlighted what that will role will be a couple of weeks ago:

“I think the bigger plays in the pass game this year are going to be made by MVS,” former NFL wide receiver Michael Bumpus said during the Four Down Territory segment on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy. “He’s gonna be the sniper in this whole deal – the big-play guy.

“He’s still fast,” Bumpus said. “… He looks good out there….I’m talking about bombs – throwing that thing deep over the top. I think MVS will, and should, be the leader when it comes to that.”

If Horton can step in from day one and fill that role, regardless of how replaceable it seems to find a receiver who can put up 400 yards on 20 catches, then yes he was drafted three rounds too late.

Furthermore, and probably most important of all, Horton suffered a major knee injury in 2024:

• The Seahawks are not cutting Horton at all, so if MVS starts the season poorly or gets hurt, they have Horton behind him.

• But if the team cuts MVS and then Horton plays poorly or gets hurt, they have nobody else to go to to fill that role.

Nobody has to argue if Valdes-Scantling is good in order for the case to be made that he’s slated to have a role on the Seahawks. MVS is exactly “as good” today as he was when the Seahawks signed him in March. None of the reasons that they signed him back then would have changed by today unless that reason is that at 30/31 he’s not as fast as he used to be. That could be the only reason, which Kubiak and Macdonald say has not changed. Are they telling the truth? That’s for you to decide.

Which WRs will the Seahawks keep?

Based on the objective evidence, I would rank the likelihood of making the team as a wide receiver like this:

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba

2. Cooper Kupp

3. Tory Horton

4. Marquez Valdes-Scantling

5. Jake Bobo

6. Dareke Young

7. Steven Sims

8. Ricky White III

9. Cody White

I did not struggle putting Horton over MVS, but did with putting MVS over Bobo. Again, Horton is making the team regardless. MVS is not as clear, but all of the evidence suggests that he will make the 53 and continue to compete for playing time with Horton through the start of the season. If Horton is clearly outplaying MVS after a month, the Seahawks have the exact same option to cut him then as they do right now, but at least by October they’ll have far better evidence to use in the decision making process.

Bobo’s place at 5 has less to do with the probability that he’ll have a big role on the offense in the regular season (a major uptick from his first two seasons is still unlikely) and more to do with his jack-of-all-trades fungibility and special teams value. Sims suited up for Friday’s game but then removed his pads before kickoff and didn’t play. Regardless, the team is having a competition for a kickoff returner and nobody except the coaches know where Sims stands there because that’s what he was signed to do.

Sims could make the roster at the cost of Young or someone else. That’s maybe one of the rare cases where I actually am rooting for someone to make — more accurately to not make — the Seahawks.

I’m not rooting for MVS to make the Seahawks. I just think that the coaches keep trying to tell us that he’s going to.

Seaside Joe 2357