How good are the Seahawks now?

Seahawks mailbag Q&A: Seaside Joe 1891

Does anyone else do the daily puzzles on The New York Times Games app? Seaside Jay got me a subscription a couple of months ago because I had started to do Sudoku as a non-negotiable daily habit and she knew I’d prefer the paid version without ads than the janky app I downloaded on my iPad. She was right, of course, but then I found out that I liked other puzzles (Spelling Bee, Wordle, Connections) even more than Sudoku and now I’m obsessed with getting better scores every day.

(I know, I should care about the NYT crossword, but I’m not there yet.)

The non-negotiable daily puzzle habit started last year when I decided that if I was ever going to win Survivor (answers to questions people always ask when you tell them that: yeah the TV show, yeah it’s still on the air, they’re on season 46 now), I needed to get better at solving puzzles. It’s part of the game and solving a puzzle can mean the difference between $1 million or eating bugs for free.

(How would I keep my daily newsletter streak alive if I’m on Survivor? I would pre-write 45 articles and schedule them in advance and you know that I would.)

But at the beginning of starting this daily habit I had a question: Can a person actually improve their puzzle-solving skills?

Of course, I’m not going to get smarter at age 41, but routinely working on puzzles every day does make me feel wiser.

In addition to Spelling Bee and Wordle and Sudoku, I’m also recently obsessed with the game 2048, a simple app for the phone that merely requires you to keep connecting the same numbers until they double up to 2048. For example: 2+2=4, 4+4=8, 8+8=16, and so on until you’ve matched them up to 2048. When you get to 2048, the next step is to get to 4096.

In the beginning, getting to 2048 seemed impossible but after putting in the reps for a couple of months getting to 2048 is now routine; 4096 is my new 2048. How did I get better? I learned what my most common mistakes are and then I found solutions to avoid those mistakes in the future. Same as with Spelling Bee or Sudoku or a basic jigsaw puzzle, it was more important to learn what not to do than what to do; for me at least, puzzling is about finding and mitigating your weaknesses more than it is about strengths.

Which is comforting because I know I’m not the smartest and I know I don’t work the hardest and I know that I’m not getting better at either of those things.

What these last six months of daily puzzling has taught me is that—and excuse me for putting on my cheesy Coach Carter had for a minute—the hardest part of doing a puzzle is making the attempt when you KNOW you’re going to fail.

Not that long ago, I didn’t know what 2048 or Spelling Bee were and I was terrible at both games when I started. Now I’m decent even though I’m not smarter or working harder. I just committed to accepting that I would fall short over and over again. Last week, I finally got to 4096 and on Friday I hit 100% on the Spelling Bee for the first time. One of the most common puzzles to see on Survivor is a slide puzzle and it wasn’t until this recent non-negotiable habit that I had even attempted to complete one before.

It seems impossible at first, now I know that there are strategies to beat them and I could at least finish not-last if tasked to complete one on the beach with Jeff Probst’s face on it.

Even though I’m sure I’ll never be cast on Survivor, I’m still somehow terrified of losing the game. That I won’t be good enough at the challenges, the social game, or getting people to vote for me if I make it to the end. That’s probably why I don’t apply very often, but it’s also why I started doing more to prepare to be on the show such as working to find puzzle strategies and growing out my hair…because have you noticed that TV shows seem to always cast guys if they have long or crazy hair?

We never know what we are capable of until we try and though losing never fails to feel like anything other than a devastating gut punch* it’s also a requisite part on the journey to becoming a champion.

*I haven’t lost Wordle yet but I know that one day I will and I’m petrified of that day coming

How good of a head coach did the Seattle Seahawks hire when John Schneider and Jody Allen handed the keys to Mike Macdonald?

That’s a question that doesn’t have an answer yet, but one thing the 2024 season will undeniably give Macdonald (and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, arguably just as important of a hire for the immediate future) is the first opportunity to find out what he sucks at and what strategies he will need to divise to avoid repeating his mistakes. This necessitates patience on the part of fans, Schneider, and Allen through moments in the near future that will warrant criticism, and it would be shocking if there weren’t more than a handful of those in his first season.

Even Sean McVay, who got off to one of the best starts in history from 2017-2018, would admit that he couldn’t have won the Super Bowl in if not for first losing it in ugly fashion. He still made big mistakes in his first few seasons, faults that he corrected through both countless small changes and the groundbreaking ones like deciding that the Rams wouldn’t go where they needed to go with Jared Goff when L.A. traded for Matthew Stafford.

For Macdonald, like all head coaches, he will be largely judged based on Seattle’s win-loss record in 2024. As much as the Internet likes to pile on people for citing “QB Winz”, winning percentage and total career wins trumps all other metrics for ranking head coaches…even though I’m not sold that head coaches are more important than quarterbacks.

Everything else being equal, who would win more Super Bowls: Andy Reid with Geno Smith or Patrick Mahomes with almost any head coach?

(I didn’t want to say Mahomes+Macdonald because nobody knows how good Macdonald is going to be, but I also didn’t want to say Pete Carroll because he’s not “the Geno Smith of head coaches”.)

(I’m also not arguing for QB wins or anything, I’m just making an example.)

But maybe we shouldn’t be too fixated on how many games the Seahawks win in Macdonald’s first year at the helm. There are scenarios in which a 6-11 Seahawks team is actually more successful than a 10-7 Seahawks team, at least in terms of looking to the future. Plenty of bad head coaches have won 10+ games in their debut season: Chip Kelly went 10-6 in both of his first seasons as the Eagles head coach, but was fired before the end of year three.

Seattle could end up with a 1-5 record in games decided by four points or less, indicating that they might be better than their wins and losses suggest. The Vikings went 13-4 in Kevin O’Connell’s first season but 7-10 in his second season, yet Minnesota was largely the same team both years: Their first eight losses of 2023 were by six points or less.

Instead, did Mike Macdonald connect with the Seahawks young players and veteran leaders in a way that fans haven’t seen in Seattle recently? Are the players doing a better job of communicating with one another on the field?

Is the defense significantly better and can the Seahawks stop the run?

Is Macdonald holding players accountable for poor performances, regardless of how much money they got paid or where they were drafted and will that extend to the quarterbacks?

Does it seem apparent that Macdonald and Schneider are aligned even though they just met and this will be the first year that Macdonald is a head coach or that Schneider isn’t reporting to the head coach?

More and more, I see people judging head coaches by how many times they go for it on fourth down or whether or not the offense goes for two points, but the inclination to use those rare moments as the basis for an argument of “To fire or not to fire?” is based the emotions WE FEEL in high-pressures situations and entertainment value, not so much on things that really matter. Like building an environment that makes players and coaches the best versions of themselves and makes them want to keep getting better day after day.

And how do we get better every day? We commit to doing the things that we’re not good at, that we know we will struggle with, and we accept that sometimes losing is winning.

That’s easy for me to say as the guy who just plays with words and calls it an “accomplishment”, but at the end of the day aren’t we all just playing games?

Last week, I sent out a mailbag for Super Joes to send me questions and potential story topics that I can address here on the newsletter. If you want to be included on the next Super Joes email, you can upgrade here either from free or from the Regular Joes subscription at a prorated annual rate. Or click here:

I used the first question here from James as the jumping off point for today’s newsletter. I didn’t answer all of the questions sent in by Super Joes, but this won’t be the last newsletter created based off of what you sent in!

Super Defjames:

Many of us, including myself and you, still think the Seahawks are going to wind up a 9-10 win team. What would need to happen, and what might we see in training camp and pre-season to think we can do better? In 2012 the Seahawks were not predicted to do well and surprised everyone.

Right off the bat, I’ll just include that I don’t really see similarities between 2012 and 2024. At that point, Pete had benefited from three offseasons to rebuild the entire roster in his vision and certainly there was a sense that something special was brewing on defense: The Seahawks ranked 7th in points allowed and fourth in points allowed per drive in 2011, compared to 25th and 29th in 2023. You’re definitely 100% correct to say that Seattle’s talent explosion in the second half of the 2012 season was unpredictable, even among the most optimistic fans, but that wouldn’t be the bar I want to set for Mike Macdonald in his first year.

I don’t think anything that happens before the season will convince me that the Seahawks are significantly better or worse than I currently think. We didn’t even know the 2012 Seahawks were going to be as good as they were until after Week 12. It was cool that the 2012 preseason did something that preseasons almost never do—Russell Wilson’s dominance in a few exhibition appearances actually did foretell that Seattle had found one of the best draft steals of all-time—but what could really be the equal of that in 2024?

Even if Sam Howell won the starting quarterback job because he was just that impressive in camp, I’m still going to have the same questions about the defense. I’m still going to have the same questions about the offensive line. I’m still going to be waiting to find out how good Macdonald and Grubb are going to be at outsmarting the other NFL offensive and defensive coordinators during the regular season.

Look, the Seahawks could win 13 games and that would be great. I’m not going to say that Seattle couldn’t surprise everyone and win the division because that really could happen. But just in terms of what you’re asking about changing expectations before Week 1, I can’t see what would do that in a meaningful way or if it would even really matter if it did. People could predict 12 wins and the Seahawks win 5 games, or people could predict 5 wins and it could be 12.

If that feels like a not specific enough answer, I’ll add that if the Seahawks have the same starting 5 offensive linemen from the first day of training camp to the first day of the regular season, and do so because those 5 guys are clearly the best 5 options and also remain healthy, that will be as much of a win as anything else that could happen this summer.

Super Rusty:

What’s your take on the current rosters (post draft) of the 9ers, Rams and Cards?

By the time the Seahawks drafted two players, the Cardinals had drafted EIGHT players. If Arizona didn’t get better through the draft, it’ll be another short term tenure for a Cardinals GM and head coach. I’ll say that to Cardinals fans, head coach Jonathan Gannon is no different than how Seattle feels about Macdonald. So going back to what I wrote earlier, did Gannon learn enough in his 4-13 opening season to not repeat mistakes in 2024?

I can’t say, but his competency and Kyler Murray’s health seem to be the hinges that will tip Arizona one way or the other next season. It’s difficult to assess the quality of the Cardinals expected 53-man roster because so many of their key players are either rookies or second-year players.

The Rams have a few important strengths top to bottom, including Sean McVay’s rank among NFC coaches and Matthew Stafford’s rank against NFC quarterbacks; at times, either of those people could be the best in the conference at what they do. L.A. went 10-7 last season but lost Aaron Donald, so I’m kind of expecting their upgrades to sort of even out their losses.

When DefJames asked what could happen before the season to change expectations of the Seahawks, I didn’t have a great answer. It would be easier to do with the 49ers because Brandon Aiyuk is still on the team but still wants a new contract. If San Francisco trades Aiyuk before the season, that will seriously limit what Kyle Shanahan can do in the passing game because the 49ers don’t have another outside threat/blocker like him. Unless rookie Ricky Pearsall is NFL-ready, which isn’t likely to be the case.

When making predictions, it’s common to fall back on what happened last year and assume it’ll be the same even though NFL seasons never repeat like that. So I’m leaning towards the Rams to be the favorites, the 49ers to be next, and both the Seahawks and Cardinals are a little mysterious.

That’s just my gut reaction, but share your thoughts on the NFC West in the comments:

Super Nick T:

The question I keep coming back to is "How are all of these decisions shaped by the prospect of Jody selling the team in the next 2-5 years?"

Quick confession: I have zero $5 billion assets in my portfolio, but if I did, I would want to spruce 'em up before putting them up for sale. I'm not even sure what all that could mean for the team's strategy. Maybe it means we clear out any long-term contracts and make sure the balance sheet is pristine by 2028. Or maybe we invest heavily to "win now" so the actual football product is at its best and the Seahawk Brand (TM) is at its strongest.

Or Jody, just keep the team!

On keeping the team, Jody Allen is legally obligated to sell the Seahawks and donate the proceeds to charity, so this will not end up being an Allen family tradition forever. However, she could still wait another 10 years if she wanted to and that’s almost the same as what you’re saying about keeping the team. I just wanted to clarify that point, she can’t keep the team indefinitely.

As to the $5 billion number you threw in here, I’ll just add that the Dolphins owner reportedly wouldn’t sell the team for $10 billion. That’s $4 billion more than any NFL team has ever been sold for, but that does sound like numbers we’re going to hear soon on sale. Maybe Jody sees no reason to sell the team in the next 2-3 years when she could wait until a time when NFL teams might be going for sale at $15 billion or more. Even if she doesn’t get to keep the money, it’s still that much more going to charity and in the meantime she gets to own an NFL team.

I’m not expecting an imminent sale, therefore I’m not expecting the Seahawks to make any decisions based on a sale, at least in terms of the things fans talk about like rosters and contracts.

Did it make ANY sense for the Broncos to trade for Wilson and pay him $245 million weeks before selling the team? If I was buying a team, the last thing I would want is for the previous owner to do my shopping and yet that’s exactly what Denver did anyway…and the Broncos were still sold for a record amount at the time.

As far as clearing out long-term contracts, you won’t have to do much work. The Seahawks barely have any of those (the only vets signed past 2025 are Leonard Williams and Uchenna Nwosu) and it’s not like any of us think Seattle should avoid rewarding their good players who will be due extensions in 2025 or 2026 or 2027. All the Seahawks can do is operate like a normal NFL franchise that isn’t for sale: If they aren’t for sale, they’re just doing what they do and if they are for sale, they’re still trying to be the best and most attractive versions of themselves that they can possibly be.

Ultimately, all “Seahawks sale topics” come down to this: If I don’t know when it’s happening, it might not as well be happening at all. I wouldn’t recommend using up energy on something that is mostly uncertain and totally out of our control.

Super Roger Woitte:

Your nonstop output is really impressive! What’s your daily routine?

I wish I could say that writing Seaside Joe was more regimented, as if “I start exactly at this time and I end exactly at this time” but really it’s more that I know I have to write something each day and then when I get an idea for a newsletter, I start working on it until it’s done. It would be great if that only took 20-30 minutes, but I’ve never been good with brevity and I’m always worried that I didn’t put enough meat on the bone…so Seaside Joe is more like 2-3 hours per day and it’s never usually planned.

Instead of a routine, my day is a checklist. I have 20 non-negotiable daily habits plus one weekly habit, which is to exercise three times for 30 minutes. When I think of the fact that I have to do about 20 non-negotiables per day, the number sounds daunting, but now that I’ve been on it for over five years without any missed assignments I’m comforted by the knowledge that whatever I have to do, I know it’s getting done. It’s only a matter of time.

Non-negotiable daily habits have helped me appreciate five minutes in a way that I never had before: Instead of five minutes that I used to spend doing whatever I want (usually just watching reality competition shows), that’s five minutes that I’m investing into doing something I need. And don’t worry, Seaside Jay will tell you there’s no shortage on time spent watching TV.

Usually when I’m finished with writing Seaside Joe and completed the first of two 20-minute meditative sits, at that point I feel like the rest of the day is cake. In actuality, I still have about 2.5 more hours of work to do, but I’m okay with it because of how great it feels to get to the end of each day feeling like I accomplished all the goals I had set for myself. And I get that every day.

Now I can’t imagine my life without non-negotiable daily habits or without writing a new episode of Seaside Joe every day. Unless I have to schedule out about 45 of them in advance, in which case I’ll solve that puzzle when I get there.