I'm pivoting

Draft Rules: Be willing to change your opinions based on new information

Would you put your fate in the hands of a dream?

Without boring you over dream details, the short story is this: The Seattle Seahawks will draft Texas receiver Matthew Golden.

There are risks to using a first round pick on a receiver, and reasons to believe that the Seahawks would feel that they don’t have many targets left to spare after signing Cooper Kupp, but I never want to feel so committed to a belief that I can’t pivot at the last second when there’s new information.

Having a dream is at best “questionable” new information. However, the source is not as relevant as the potential outcome:

If the Seahawks do draft Golden or another receiver at 18, then what would be their reason for it? What would have justified that pick? If I can justify taking Golden at 18 before it happens, then it could happen.

Many of you have pushed back against my argument that Seattle wouldn’t draft a receiver in the first round, so I expect wide acceptance to the possibility that the Seahawks will look in that direction even if at the same time many of you do not want it to be Matthew Golden.

There are valid concerns related to Golden’s apparent late rise in the draft process after a college career in which he only averaged 55 yards per game. But after digging deeper into Golden’s history at Houston and Texas, as well as into reports that existed before his (questionable) 4.29 40-yard dash citing him as the best route runner with the best hands in the draft, I’m convinced that I could have been wrong about him and Seattle’s odds of picking a receiver in the first round.

Why the Seahawks WOULD draft Matthew Golden

Sam Darnold needs help

If you can be convinced that there are receivers worthy of being the 18th pick in this draft — today’s post might just as easily apply to Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden, and Emeka Egbuka — and that they are significantly better than the options at pick 50, then you could support the decision to draft one because Darnold really needs the help.

It is more likely that a first round receiver would elevate Darnold’s season in 2025 than it is that a first round guard or center would do the same.

On the Jets, Darnold had one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL and he failed. On the Panthers, Darnold D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey, but no depth behind them and he failed there too.

Finally, Darnold found success with the Vikings, at which point he had the number one receiver in the league (Justin Jefferson), a high-end number two (Jordan Addison), a good tight end (T.J. Hockenson), and a quality three (Jalen Nailor).

The Seahawks can’t be fooled into believing that Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Cooper Kupp could provide the same value to Darnold as Jefferson, which at best leaves Seattle holding a pair of Addisons. That feels similar to the situation in Carolina that resulted in Darnold being benched multiple times over two seasons.

Even though Golden is not the next Justin Jefferson, his value as a versatile weapon who can play all three receiver roles, including DK Metcalf’s vacant place as the X, makes him a viable option to start next to JSN and Kupp from Week 1. Should Kupp miss 5-6 games this season, and when Kupp departs the team in one or three years from now, Golden’s best case potential is that of a number one receiver.

He’s a coach’s dream

Speaking of dreams, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian spoke highly of Golden in a recent interview and explained that part of the reason he didn’t have bigger numbers is that the Longhorns didn’t immediately realize that he was actually their best weapon all along. There were also several setbacks:

• Golden was recovering from turf toe surgery in the spring

• He had to learn a new offense after going from air raid at Houston to Texas’ Pro Style offense

• Quinn Ewers didn’t realize that Golden was his golden ticket

Not even Sarkisian thinks that Golden plays like a “4.29 speed” receiver, saying he expected him to be 4.40-4.45, but that only emphasizes the fact that Golden didn’t need to be a 4.3 guy in order to be a first round pick.

As it pertains to the relationship between Golden and Sarkisian, the receiver told a the 3rd and Longhorn podcast that he would constantly hit up the head coach for advice because he wasn’t getting the offense right away.

Rather than relying on his athleticism or letting his ego get too big to accept that he wasn’t “getting it”, Golden sought help from his coaches so that he could give himself the best chance of success. Coaches probably love that.

I expected to find out that he was terrible at Houston and that he was transferring to escape accountability, like so many others do, but that wasn’t the case at all.

In reality, Golden was one of the best true freshmen in the country in 2022:

• 38 catches, 584 yards, 7 TD

He also did that while sharing the field with Tank Dell. After Dell went to the NFL, Golden was expected to become the number one, but the pressure may have led to a few early season drops and on top of that, Houston had upgraded from the American Conference to the Big 12. Golden missed three games that season and then Houston fired head coach Dana Holgerson, which is why he entered the transfer portal in 2024.

Sarkisian was anxious to get his second shot at Golden (Texas was late in the process to recruit him out of high school and Golden didn’t want to go back on his commitment to Houston) and that could say a lot about the reputation he had earned as an effort guy despite his setbacks as a sophomore.

There’s a gap between the first round and the second

This quote by James Palmer said a lot to me as far as why a team could take Golden in the top-25 rather than wait until round two on the position:

“A receivers coach told me, ‘When I watched Golden’s tape, I said he’s a good player, polished, I like him, but he’s not perfect and I don’t know if he’s a first rounder. Then I went and watched a lot more guys and I went ‘YUCK!’ I watched Golden again and felt that compared to the rest of the group in 2025, he’s really good.’.”

I do not know how good Matthew Golden’s going to be at the next level, nobody does (but Greg Cosell said that he reminds him of Brian Thomas in that he’s probably going to be the guy who sees his stock go up the most as a rookie), but I also don’t know how good the second round names like Savion Williams and Jaylin Noel and Jack Bech are going to be either.

It does seem that there’s at least some opinion out there that the day two crops of receivers has been overrated — which does happen a lot — and that Golden’s exceptional route running, hands, and ability to create separation are miles ahead of the options that Seattle would settle for at 50 and 52.

While it was easy for me to find sources who believe Golden is being overrated in the top-20 or as WR1 in the class like this video at Underdog:

Or PFF, where he ranked as WR7 and WR8:

Nobody thinks he’s overrated as a separator or as a route runner.

His run blocking has come into question (something that Cooper Kupp can help teach Seattle’s receivers) and there are those doubts about why he took so long to become the number one receiver in college — until he was arguably the best player on the field for Texas in the College Football Playoffs — but his strengths were strengths long before his 40-yard dash.

With “speed” not even ranking in his top-5 best traits:

Comparison have ranged from Stefon Diggs to Chris Olave, with the latter being relevant to the Seahawks given that offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was with the Saints last season. Nobody would know better than him if Golden could fit into Seattle’s offense similar to how he wanted to use Olave.

Don’t talk yourself out of being right

Golden would be another controversial prospect to mock to the Seahawks because the perception is that he’s a burner who wouldn’t have been on Seattle’s radar until he ran a 4.29 40-yard dash at the combine. That’s partially my fault because I was not really familiar with his game.

If I was a Golden fan who read my earlier dismissals of him as a possibility at 18, I would have been pretty pissed!

That does not mean the Seahawks will draft Golden, only that I didn’t appreciate the fact that some analysts had him as WR1 before the combine and that his value to NFL teams will be his route running, separation, obsessive film study, and his versatility, not 4.29 speed, which pretty much everyone believes is actually 4.40ish with a really fast get-off.

Clearly, I was sleeping on Matthew Golden. Is it time to hit the alarm?

Tell me why I should or shouldn’t expect the Seahawks to draft Matthew Golden or another receiver:

Seaside Joe origin stories

Rusty: So I was born in Tacoma, grew up in the tiny eastern WA town of Oroville, and have lived my entire adult life in the equally small WA town of White Salmon. Been a fan of the team from day one and will be one until the day I die.

I have a special place in my heart for everyone who has been a Seahawk…with the exception of those few players who were famous elsewhere and came to Seattle for a brief fling at the end of their careers. I’m looking directly at Franco Harris and Jerry Rice. Two great players who seemed to be just going through the motions to collect one last paycheck.

My wife describes me as a “long suffering Seahawk fan” but the suffering pretty much stopped when Mike Holmgren was hired. It’s been pretty great since then, with the exception of the Jim Mora “experience”.

I love to hear about your small towns. Please share all your small town stories because I’m sure you’re not the only person in this community who could be from there or nearby.

Defjames: I was born and raised in Houston TX, and grew up an Oilers fan. I have fond memories of Warren Moon, Haywood Jeffries, Lorenzo White. The 1992 loss to Buffalo sticks out for obvious (bad) reasons. Earl Cambell and Billy “White Shoes” Johnson’s were a bit before my time. Until that son of bitch Bud Adams moved my team to TN in 1994. May he burn in hell 🔥

I was an orphaned football fan and moved to Seattle in 1996 which is when I became a Seahawks fan. I remember the day they hired Holmgren and how that seems to change the trajectory of the franchise. I still have my Tatupu jersey (Ta-toooo-pooo) and attended every home game from 2006-2010.

I’ll be a Seahawks fan til the day I die.

May Bud Adams find the same hell that houses Clay Bennett and Howard Schultz.

Seaside Joe 2240