It's a won-Dar-ful life
Seahawks come face-to-face with the team they didn't want to become when they haunt the Panthers on Sunday
The New York Giants currently hold the number one pick and if they lose their last two games (a loss to the Raiders this week would practically guarantee it) they must look to the Chicago Bears as all the incentive needed to trade down. In 2023, the Bears traded the first overall pick to the Carolina Panthers and the returns have put Chicago in the running to snipe the number one seed from the Seattle Seahawks:
WR D.J. Moore
9th pick in 2023 (traded down for RT Darnell Wright)
P Tory Taylor (pick acquired via trade down)
61st pick in 2023 (traded up for CB Tyrique Stevenson)
2024 first round pick (QB Caleb Williams)
2025 second round pick (WR Luther Burden)
The Bears turned one pick into three key starters on offense, including a quarterback — which may have also been the reason that Chicago was able to lure Ben Johnson over from Detroit to become the head coach — and an emerging talent in Burden plus a punter and a cornerback who, well, I’ve heard the name…
All because the Bears were one half-game better than a 3-13-1 Texans team that won two of its last three meaningful-meaningless games.
And the Carolina Panthers got Bryce Young to replace one quarterback who the Seahawks didn’t want (Baker Mayfield) and another who they’re now building their franchise around (Sam Darnold).
Young’s future with the Panthers still remains very much a question mark, given the fact that over the course of the last three seasons he’s already been benched for ineffectiveness and hasn’t exactly led the Panthers to the promised land. (Carolina has already won more games this season than Young’s first two combined.) But in the JV division that is the NFC South, Young is (potentially) good enough to keep Carolina in the hunt for a first-round playoff game.
Now with division titles in the balance for both franchises, Darnold meets his past, the Panthers face the team they want to be (former Seahawks at GM, HC, and a desire to turn Young into their Russell Wilson), and Seattle gets a chance to prove that the suit is only as cheap as the person who wears it.
Hopefully the Seahawks don’t need to go quarterback shopping for a very long time, but just in case they do, the Panthers wrote the book on how not to do it: Seattle spent fewer good picks on QBs in 50 years than Carolina would use on the position in under 5 years.
Carolina’s self-defeating efforts to find a replacement for Cam Newton were a topic of regular conversation between me and my Panthers fan friend:
3rd round pick on Will Grier in 2019 (career 0 TD/4 INT)
Signed Teddy Bridgewater to 3-year, $63m deal in 2020 (15 starts)
Traded 2nd+ for Darnold in 2021 (8-9)
Brought back Newton in 2021 (0-5)
3rd round pick on Matt Corral in 2022 (not even active for 1 game)
Traded for Mayfield in 2022 (1-5)
Traded all that for Young in 2023
The unofficial tally on how many draft picks the Panthers used on quarterbacks from 2019-2023 to finally land on Young: 2 firsts rounders (both top-9), 3 seconds, 2 thirds, several day three picks, plus Moore, plus tens of millions of dollars.
Do you realize how many first, second, and third round draft picks that the Seahawks have used on quarterbacks in their entire franchise history?
Three firsts (Mirer, McGwire, a trade for Stouffer), zero seconds (swapped seconds and traded a third for Whitehurst), four thirds (Wilson, Greene, Huard, Milroe).
And you could offset almost all of that by balancing it against the draft haul for Russell Wilson and the third round pick that Seattle got for Geno Smith.
The Panthers spent more resources to get one Bryce Young than the Seahawks have used to acquire any/all quarterbacks in the last 50 years.
The only real exception to that track record is Darnold, as Seattle finally stepped outside of its comfort zone to spend a little over $100 million on a free agent quarterback who was able to rebuild his career after leaving Carolina. Few times in franchise history have the Seahawks panicked at the position in the way that the Panthers were doing on an annual basis for five years, at times literally drafting players (Corral) and trading for players (Baker) that the media was at times criticizing Seattle for not acquiring.
Instead, the Seahawks exhibited faith in their ability to tread water with Geno (three winning seasons in three years proved them correct) and their ability to make the team even better without him by pouncing an opportunity to sign a quarterback who the Panthers had been blaming for their failures just a few years ago.
Darnold has now turned these career numbers:
21-35 record as a starter, 59.7% completions, 3.5 TD%, 3.1 INT%, 6.7 Y/A, 78.3 rating.
Into these numbers over the past two seasons:
26-6 record as a starter, 66.7% completions, 6.1 TD%, 2.6 INT%, 8.3 Y/A, 101.7 rating.
I’m sure Darnold has learned lessons along the way that have helped him improve as a player in recent years, including a season behind the scenes on the 49ers, but oftentimes the simplest explanation is the right answer:
Why is it that players like Darnold and Geno and Baker get better when they change teams but teams like the Jets, Panthers, and Browns don’t get better when they change quarterbacks?
Will Bryce Young break the mold?
After going 6-22 as a starter in his first two seasons, Young has helped the Panthers go 8-6 this season (they’re also 0-1 without him), including wins over the Rams, Bucs, Packers, and Cowboys. The Falcons would have a winning record if they weren’t swept by Carolina.
Young’s numbers have improved too and over the last five games he has 10 touchdowns, 2 picks, a passer rating of 107, 7.8 Y/A, and over 100 rushing yards as he’s also a fairly dangerous scrambler if defenders don’t get him down on their first try. Many have pointed to last season’s benching by head coach Dave Canales (a longtime Pete Carroll assistant) as the turning point:
But I also remember having conversations with that Panthers fan friend throughout this season that Carolina would have to go looking for a quarterback again in 2026. And that’s mostly coming from him.
During Young’s breakout campaign, he is tied with Cam Ward for the most games (9) this season with under 6 yards per pass attempt. Darnold has one such game.
Young has also probably been in the position to have a fourth quarter comeback or game-winning drive too often based on how he plays in the first half of most games:
7 TD/6 INT in the first half
14 TD/3 INT in the second half
Half-to-half, Carolina is extremely consistent as a rushing team. The reason they’re so often trailing (the offense has run 531 plays while behind compared to only 178 plays while ahead) can often be attributed to the passing game, especially the first half. That can’t all be put on Young (see Sam Darnold, etc.) but he’s anything but blameless.
The Seahawks have run 432 plays with the lead (over 2.5x Carolina’s) and 284 when behind. Believe it or not, Seattle’s played much better than the Panthers when they have the lead, as well as better when they’re trailing.
Hopefully the Seahawks will only have to test themselves with a lead on Sunday — and given the evidence we have that seems more likely than needing a comeback, although you can never be sure (as the Rams found out) — and not the other way around.
But should Sam Darnold look up at the scoreboard and see that for the sixth time this season the Seattle Seahawks are trailing in the fourth quarter or overtime, he should know one thing:
Don’t panic.