Jarran Reed has had bad timing, but maybe now it's perfect

What are the Seahawks getting in Reed's return? Seaside Joe 1541

It feels to me like 2020 never actually happened because for whatever reason anything that really did happen that season seems to feel like it was at least 30 to 60 years ago. For example, a lot of people think “Let Russ Cook” happened a few seasons ago, but no… That was a conflict of ideas between Jim Zorn and Jack Patera.

Zorn had just seen the movie The Thing and wanted to “cook” defenses like Kurt Russell using a flamethrower against the alien.

Other fallacies and misconceptions about the 2020 season are that “Tom Brady won the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers” (What?), “the Seahawks lost a playoff game to Jared Goff’s Rams” (That Lions guy?), “Deshaun Watson led the league in passing yards for the Texans” (I haven’t seen that guy since he died 35 years ago…tonight!), and “Geno Smith was Russell Wilson’s backup” (according to my recent Pro Bowl record-keeping… I doubt that.).

Maybe it’s only me but I do have a hard time accepting certain 2020 Seahawks facts including Chris Carson led the team in rushing, Carlos Hyde was the backup, Jacob Hollister had the most targets at tight end, Greg Olsen was second, David Moore was the punt returner, K.J. Wright was second in tackles, Mike Iupati was the starting left guard, Brian Schottenheimer and Ken Norton were the coordinators, and Jamal Adams was Seattle’s best pass rusher.

Second on the team in sacks was Jarran Reed, posting 6.5 in 16 games, plus 14 QB hits.

Read Next: Sunday Bonus Joe on 2023 position battles—

Reed, who seems to have mastered “bad timing”, is back with the Seattle Seahawks after two seasons away from the team. He joined the Seahawks in 2016, which is basically the year that Seattle stopped being a legitimate Super Bowl threat in the NFC, and then joined the Kansas City Chiefs in 2021 (the only time in the last four years that they failed to reach the Super Bowl), and the Green Bay Packers in 2022 (only the second time since 2009 that Aaron Rodgers failed to make the playoffs without missing significant action).

Hopefully 2023 marks the year that Reed’s timing is perfect. Who are the Seahawks welcoming back after his two (25???) seasons away?

I always think the best opinions come from the locals, so I looked for quotes on Reed’s last two seasons away from Seattle.

Kansas City Chiefs (2021)

17 games, 43 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 FF, 2 TFL, 12 QB hits, 19 pressures, 713 snaps

Teammate Derrick Nnadi on November 11:

“I really feel like he’s a real team guy,” Nnadi said of his fellow lineman. “He sees how us as a D-line, how us as a defense can improve. I feel like with him, he’s a real student of the game, trying to find out what we can do to add more, improving our D-line as a defense. He just keeps learning and learning trying to help us be better.”

“I feel like it all goes back to really just gelling as a defense,” He explained. “In the beginning of the year, it’s always going to be a little shaky at times. Sometimes as the year progresses, you see more improvement, you see more improved technique. I think it just goes back to just the guys keep working.”

Teammate Chris Jones when Reed was credited with part of one of his sacks against the Cowboys:

"I love Jarran but I think I had four tonight," Jones said jokingly. "If he earned it, I'm all for giving it to him. But I think I had four."

Jones may be half-joking, but he’s also half-serious, and crediting Reed with the proper amount of “deserved” sacks has followed him throughout his career. We often frame “good vs bad pass rushers” based on having sacks, especially when they hit double-digits in a single season, which is what Jarran Reed did in 2018.

That year, Reed had 24 QB hits and 10.5 sacks but once again he had terrible career timing: If he had signed a contract in 2019, he would have been paid a lot. Instead, he was suspended for six games (and had two sacks) and only got a two-year deal to return to Seattle in 2020.

Arrowhead Addict after the season was over:

If Reed is “onto the next chapter,” it’s a solid loss for the Chiefs. Reed definitely needed time to adjust to what the defense asked of him in 2021, but he came on strong in the second half of the season and proved himself to be a valuable starter along the defensive front. He was also a very reliable performer who didn’t miss a single game for the Chiefs. Reed finished the year with 43 total tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 19 pressures, 10 quarterback hits, and 2.5 sacks in 17 games.

ChiefsWire echoed that sentiment:

Reed wasn’t very productive early on in his tenure in Kansas City, but he seemed to settle into things later on. It’s tough to tell if he’s done enough to warrant a contract extension with the team, but he certainly contributed to some winning moments down the stretch, including a sack in the divisional round against the Buffalo Bills. At the right price, I think the Chiefs would like to bring Reed back, but they could also let him walk and hope to fetch a compensatory pick in 2023.

Reed did not return to Kansas City and instead signed a one-year deal for $4.5 million with the Green Bay Packers. The deal included four void years so that the Packers could afford to fit him under the cap.

Wisconsin Sports Heroics did a film study on his time with the Chiefs and Seahawks and I’m ripping a ton of content out of that article, so read the entire piece, it’s worth it:

Reed originally caught my attention before the 2021 season. In a May 2021 article, Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire mentioned him as the NFL’s best pass-rusher from the 4i alignment. The 4i – where the lineman is aligned on the inside shoulder of the tackle – is an important position within the Packers’ 3-4 fronts.

Run Defense

However, his impact in the run game goes beyond the stats. Against single blocks, Reed typically does a fantastic job controlling his blocker, using excellent strength, hand placement, leverage, and extension to dominate OL. Although he wasn’t often called upon to do it in Kansas City’s defense, Reed is able to effectively play primary-to-secondary gap in the run game using a blend of quickness, strength, and ball-carrier awareness.

Reed also shows an excellent capability to handle double teams, especially from positions outside the guard. It should be noted that, during his stint with the Chiefs, he struggled at times to recognize and absorb double teams from the 0t, 1t, and 2i techniques (the 0t plays directly over the center, the 1t plays on the shoulder of the center, and the 2i plays on the inside shoulder of the guard). However, his block reaction seemed to improve as the year went on. It’s possible that it just took some time for Reed to adjust to his role in the Chiefs defense.

When he is aligned at wider positions like the 4i or 3t (on the outside shoulder of the guard), Reed demonstrates the capacity to absorb and split double teams.

Multiple times while I was watching him, Reed demonstrated outstanding block recognition and football IQ. 

Pass Rush

Reed has multiple tools in his pass-rush inventory. He primarily wins when he can use his speed to threaten the edges of a blocker. One of his main moves is the club-rip. The speed of his first step often influences guards and centers to open their hips, giving Reed a good angle to rip through to the QB. He is capable of finishing the rep with power through contact, allowing him to get pressure even when he doesn’t cleanly beat the offensive lineman.

When he feels lineman blocking down on him, Reed displays an excellent spin countermove.

One of the most intriguing elements of Reed’s game is his ability to instinctively string together counters. He flashes active hands and a great understanding of how to attack blockers. 

Green Bay Packers

17 games, 52 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 FF, 5 TFL, 14 QB hits, 18 pressures, 705 snaps

From the end of December, “Reed helped set Packers comeback win in motion”:

The defensive turning point came when defensive lineman Jarran Reed combined with All-Pro linebacker De'Vondre Campbell on a forced fumble of Mostert, marking the first of four takeaways the Packers generated in the final 31 minutes, 55 seconds.

"That was a big one for us because we needed that stop," said cornerback Rasul Douglas after Reed's takeaway. "This was like the biggest defensive series we're going to have. J-Reed came and got the fumble, him and (Campbell)."

Asked about what changed for the defense in the second half, Alexander pointed directly to Reed's forced fumble and recovery providing a lift for the defense. The seventh-year veteran finished with six tackles and a sack to go along with his forced fumble. It's the first time a Green Bay defensive lineman recorded a sack, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery in the same game since Aaron Kampman vs. New Orleans on Sept. 17, 2006.

"Man, we needed that," Alexander said. "When I saw (Reed) on it, I was like, 'Let's go.' We can win this thing, for sure."

Reed has brought a quiet and steady presence to the Packers' defense since he signed as an unrestricted free agent in March. The 6-foot-3, 307-pound defensive lineman has played in all 15 games this season, recording 48 tackles, 2½ sacks and 11 quarterback hits.

If the takeaway in Miami wasn't enough, Reed filled a major void as the five-technique defensive end in the Packers' base defense in Miami after Dean Lowry exited with a calf injury in the first half. 

Packers Film Study from Acme Packing Company:

It was a much-needed 26-20 upset win for the Packers, with Reed playing a key role on Green Bay’s defense. He finished the game with six total tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. According to Pro Football Focus, Reed was nearly the team’s highest-graded defender in the game, finishing with an 89.9 overall grade, far and away his best grade of the season.

Reed was a positive asset as a pass rusher on Sunday. His four pressures on 34 snaps were the most he’s generated in a single game this season. The 30-year-old was able to dominate his one-on-one matchups, having a plan of attack and executing it with aggressiveness.

When taking on the run, it didn’t seem to matter who Reed was facing. The veteran line had a good feel for how to control the point of attack, keep his eyes in the backfield, then work to fill gaps on either side of the blocker to meet the ball carrier. This actually showed up a handful of times against the Dolphins.

And from Zone Coverage, “The importance of Jarran Reed’s Reliability”:

Once again, Brian Gutekunst has struck gold with a thrifty veteran deal, and Reed has been a solid No. 2 defensive lineman. He hasn’t missed a game yet in Green Bay and hasn’t missed a game in general since 2019. Reed’s 61.6 PFF grade is his highest since 2018. He leads the Packers’ defensive line with 11 QB hits.

The Packers need Reed to keep elevating his play in these final regular-season games. It’s no secret that Green Bay’s pass rush hasn’t been the same since losing Rashan Gary, and the run defense has been leaky most of the year. The Packers’ last two opponents are divisional rivals, the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions, and both feature powerful offenses.

Green Bay lost their previous matchups with both rivals. They looked unprepared against Minnesota in Week 1, and the offense laid an egg against Detroit’s league-worst defense. Reed had pedestrian days in those matchups. He had four total tackles, one tackle for loss, and no QB hits against the Vikings. And he had two tackles and one QB hit against Detroit.

After the season, Dairyland Express said the team wouldn’t re-sign Reed:

To put a bow on the previous section, Reed can likely earn a larger role and payday by playing elsewhere. It’s time for Wyatt and Slaton to take on a larger share of the snaps. Green Bay should, however, still add to the interior defensive line room but can do so through the draft or with a more cost-efficient free agent option.

Same as with Kansas City, the reports were stronger in the second half of the season than the first:

Reed was playing his best during the final month of the season, which, not coincidentally, coincided with the interior defensive line and the defense as a whole playing their best football as well. Now, of course, Reed wasn’t the sole reason for any of that, but improved run defense and more regular pressure from the interior were two key contributors to the defense’s success. As we look for ways that this defensive unit can bounce back in 2023, consistent play from the trenches will be an important factor.

Back with the Seattle Seahawks

At a time of need for a defensive line overhaul, the Seahawks re-signed Jarran Reed to a two-year, $9 million contract with $4.19 million guaranteed. By all accounts from his two seasons away from the team, Reed’s been a very good player despite switching cities and defensive coordinators two times. Even though Reed didn’t play for defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt, perhaps his familiarity with Pete Carroll and the Seahawks will massage away those “slow starts” that he had with the Chiefs and Packers.

I think that asking Reed to be an elite pass rusher, or even a good one, is a foolish endeavor. That’s not what he’s going to excel at after seven seasons of bring very little to the game as a pass rusher, at least when it comes to finishing off sacks on his own; Reed had a 10.5-sack season based heavily in stunts and a 6.5-ack season in 2020, but he’s averaged two sacks per season in his other five campaigns.

That’s fine, we don’t want to overrate sack totals, but I think it’s important to remind folks that they shouldn’t judge Reed’s value this year based on whether he gets more than three sacks. He might not get that many sacks. He probably won’t.

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The Seahawks are likely to lean on Reed for at least 700 snaps and he’s been a very reliable player when not suspended. He’s only missed two career games apart from that suspension in 2019. His 700 snaps in each of the past two years would have led Seattle’s entire defensive line in 2022: Poona Ford led the way with 642 snaps.

Now there’s no Poona, no Quinton Jefferson, no Shelby Harris, and no Al Woods. Reed will pair with Dre’Mont Jones to potentially have two premier run-stoppers who can handle double-teams and maybe one of those guys (Jones) will be freed up to attack the quarterback in part because he has a running mate like Reed, described as a “great teammate” at all of his stops.

It’s almost like he’s been gone for decades. It’s almost like he never left.