The Week 4 Seaside Joe expectations survey is going to be a banger. Did you vote yet? Already we had a fan named “Rashid Shaheed’s hype man” vote for A.J. Barner to have the second-most receiving yards on the Seahawks behind JSN this week. Who will be the brave soul to go by “A.J. Barner’s #1 fan” vote for Shaheed?
Click here to go straight to the Expectations Survey!
I want to set a new 2026 record for total entries this season this week, so please throw your ballot in the mix. Trust me this data is going to get more interesting by the week!
For example, look at JSN’s expected yards vs. JSN’s actual yards:
JSN was expected to get 101 yards in Week 1, 109 yards in Week 2, and 121 yards in Week 3. He ended with 122 yards, 155 yards, and 128 yards. He’s exceeded already-high expectations every week!
How high will those expectations reach? I can tell you that the early returns on Week 4 are a new season-best.
Super Joes Q&A
Every week, I send an exclusive newsletter to our Super Joes subscribers ($10/month) asking for questions about the Seahawks. You can also leave comments that you want to share with the community!
Click here or here to upgrade to Super Joes:
Scott M: Are there any examples of really good running backs that fumbled early in career but cleaned it up and became reliable amazing running backs after a rough start?
Yes. Adrian Peterson had 20 fumbles in his first three seasons, but only averaged 2.4 fumbles per season over the rest of his career. That got even better over his last six seasons, averaging 1.8.
LaDainian Tomlinson had eight fumbles as a rookie, and aside from six in 2004, that was easily the worst season of his career.
I can’t say this example is as relevant, but Tiki Barber had horrible ball security for his entire career until he had only one fumble in year nine and that was his only All-Pro campaign. Barber credited holding the ball high and tight with his improvement.
Fumbles, like interceptions, are something that coaches have diligently worked on reducing over the past five decades.
—Jim Brown averaged one fumble for every two games.
—Over his first three seasons, Walter Payton had 36 touchdowns and 36 fumbles.
Ball security requires skill, meaning that ball security can be improved. Nobody is better at it than Kenneth Walker III, as evidenced by the clip here where he counters a peanut punch:
That’s INCREDIBLE running backing.
Jadarian Price can be put through gauntlet training (run through a line of players who are just trying to punch the ball out) and learn to carry the ball differently. He can work on “the five points of pressure” technique:
“The five points of pressure for a running back are fingertips, palms, forearms, biceps, and chest. These five points help ensure the ball is protected from defenders and reduce fumbles.
Fumbles occur when one of the pressure points is typically lacking, resulting in a turnover.”
The “problem” is that running backs do lose a tick of speed when they use proper technique due to the fact that they can’t swing their arms like they naturally want to do and can’t hit top stride length. It’s not hard to imagine why a guy properly holding a football for maximum security can’t run as fast as a guy holding a football in one hand.
Walker and other running backs have figured it out. Now it’s Price’s turn.
Chip Mac: What do you think is going on with the offensive line? I know MM wants to be a run first team, but they looked like (pick a bad word) most of the game. And, why use a running back on a first and gold at the one yard line? Why not Barnyard it until you score?
Here’s what Mike Macdonald said about not using A.J. Barner in that situation and though he doesn’t give a clear answer as to why Seattle didn’t do it, he implied that Washington isn’t good enough to use one of their secret weapons on:
“We do have a reason for it. I haven’t seen it yet. Not saying that we won’t be able to do it. Probably don’t want to say the reason publicly. It’s an option, it’s a viable option. It’s something that we might do. Probably will leave it at that. Understand the sentiment and it’s something that we’ll keep considering moving forward.”
What I gather from that is that it’s not as simple as two or three Barnyards in a row (for whatever reason) and that what options they do have weren’t worth using in Week 3.
Another interpretation of that statement is that the Seahawks don’t want opponents to know that they actually need Anthony Bradford to run the play? When Macdonald says he doesn’t “want to say the reason” could he be saying that he doesn’t want to say that Christian Haynes and Beau Stephens aren’t good enough right now?
What interpretations do you all have of that explanation?
As far as the offensive line, they’re still really good in pass protection and that’s not surprising because they’re mostly built for pass protection. Charles Cross and Abe Lucas came up in Mike Leach programs that ranked last or near-last in the country in rushing attempts.
Seattle’s offensive line isn’t built like a road grading offensive line, especially not with Haynes in there. On the other side, Dan Quinn has built a strong defensive run-stopping front and the only player to gain any yards on the ground against the Moons this season is Saquon Barkley.
I think the run game will be more dependent on speed, outside zone, hitting the edge of the defense, and really good play design by Brian Fleury. So Price may be in the dog house, but he won’t be for long. The Seahawks need him.
Gavin: How were we doing in the rankings for offense, defense, and special teams last year at this time?
After losing to the 49ers in Week 1, the Seahawks outscored the Steelers and Saints by a combined 75-30.
By DVOA, the Seahawks ranked 5th on offense, 6th on defense, and 1st on special teams. By scoring, Seattle ranked 5th on offense and 2nd on defense.
Gavin: John Schneider often makes midseason splash trades for a veteran that makes a significant impact for our team. What position would you suggest John Schneider go hunting for this season?
It’s never what we expect. Leonard Williams, Ernest Jones, and Rashid Shaheed were all great trades and also very unexpected.
If I saw any needs on offense, I think they would come in the form of a road-grading offensive tackle. That’s not going to happen given that extensions for Charles Cross and Abe Lucas were signed within the last year. I did advocate for drafting an offensive tackle in the 2024-2025 years and although I have no complaints for who Seattle ended up taking, I am not surprised that there could be some questions about right tackle at the end of the season.
That being said, I see no needs on offense. I bet some fans would suggest receivers because they’re only looking at production, but Cooper Kupp and Shaheed aren’t losing their jobs any time soon. Kupp is serving a role in run blocking and on third downs/red zone plays. Unless the Seahawks had to address an injury, I don’t think a wide receiver makes any sense.
Hypothetically, if Seattle traded for Brian Thomas Jr or Marvin Harrison Jr, when and where would he play? Those guys would make the offense worse.
So, I’m looking at defense and I’m looking at edge rusher. How about Lukas Van Ness? Green Bay’s first-round pick in 2023, Van Ness has the fifth-year option in 2027 and with as much as the Packers are paying Micah Parsons, maybe they can’t afford both edge rushers. Van Ness is off to a good start this season (2.5 sacks, 6 QB hits) even though Green Bay isn’t. If they Packers start to sell the farm, that’s a name I’d keep an eye on.
scottula: what corner of hell did the NFL schedulers put us in to suffer through watching DC followed by Bolt Up!?!?! pure evil.
A couple of weeks ago, a friend asked me “What’s up with the Chargers?” and it really got me thinking…why were most of us so high on them to begin with?
I’ve been a big fan of Justin Herbert since he was drafted. I incorrectly predicted that he would win an MVP and/or a Super Bowl within his first five seasons. Recalculating after six seasons, Herbert hasn’t done much beyond putting up impressive stats and we’ve seen those quarterbacks plenty of times before.
He doesn’t have any game-changing weapons around him. Mike McDaniel has been a disastrous hire thus far. And the defense is reminiscent of the Seahawks a few years ago, in that their reputation preceded their actual talent. Who do they have who is good and not at least 30? Tuli Tuipulotu? He’s more of a sack totals guy than an all-around edge threat.
The Chargers need a major infusion of talent and that might only come with tanking and trading Justin Herbert for three first-round picks.
(If this goes like last week after I said I hated the Moons, then I apologize in advance.)
This is Part I of Super Joes Q&A, Part II to follow! Don’t forget to make your EXPECTATIONS!
"but Cooper Kupp and Shaheed aren’t losing their jobs any time soon" - agree re Kupp, disagree re Shaheed. I think Horton will pass him quickly. And maybe Barner/Arroyo. Shaheed just doesn't look great out there.
* Not running the Barnyard may have less to do with Bradford per se and more to do with not having a replacement for his 335lbs
* In Green Bay, it might come to selling the farm. The Packers are so desperate that the signed Laken Tomlinson off of the Dallas practice squad and won’t rule out the possibility of him playing this Sunday