JSN is the new Tyler Lockett
The Seahawks are giving Jaxon Smith-Njigba duties that used to belong to Tyler Lockett, but here’s the best part: JSN could end up being a better Lockett than Lockett, and Lockett could be a better JSN than JSN.
Their numbers appear similar, and Lockett has more yards than Smith-Njigba, but there’s a shift happening: Lockett’s snap count is down from 80% to 70%, while JSN’s is up from 64% to 86%. JSN has taken over the primary number two receiver role in 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR and 13.4% of Seattle’s plays) and as long as both are healthy, Smith-Njigba will play about 150-200 more snaps than Lockett this season.
This is fantastic news!
JSN has a higher ceiling in Lockett’s previous role than Lockett does, but Lockett is also a better “WR3” for the Seahawks than what Seattle got from JSN as a rookie. By reversing JSN and Lockett, the Seahawks are getting 2 upgrades at once.
The Seahawks still have to find out if Smith-Njigba can excel in that role (he’s averaging 37 YPG in the last 5) and based on his history I like his chances. Lockett is already having more success as Seattle’s WR3 than he did last season as the WR2: He’s coming off a season-best 2.4 yards per route against the Falcons and he’s 22nd in the NFL in yards at 384. With a bigger role last season, Lockett was 35th in yards. Now with DK Metcalf doubtful to play the Bills on Sunday, JSN has to do more with more.
The Vision Board will be a little different moving forward: Just as much intel on the Seahawks and their opponents as before, but it won’t take as much time to read it. Share with other Seahawks fans if you find the information to be useful.
Outwit (Coaching): When you blitz Josh Allen, you better be right
It’s not important how many times Macdonald blitzes. It only matters when he blitzes, because you can’t fail to sack Allen and then give him extra time to dice up a defense that only dropped six into coverage.
The league doesn’t want quarterbacks to be injured, sacked, or touched in the wrong way. They’ve already shot the trailer for the 2025 AFC Championship game between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, so those guys especially can’t get hurt. Mahomes uses this advantage as a weapon, and Allen is as difficult to sack as any QB because he’s built like a tight end, throwing like a quarterback, and running like a running back: Allen had the NFL’s lowest- sack rate last season and he’s seventh this season.
Mike Macdonald’s thing isn’t blitzing and Seattle has the 5th-lowest blitz rate on third downs, per Next Gen Stats. His thing is disguising where the rush is coming from to confuse QBs, giving the pass rush enough time to pressure, hence the Seahawks have the 7th-best pressure rate (49.3%) on third down. But Allen is as dangerous on third down as any QB.
Allen is averaging 3.51 seconds to throw on third down, which is the second-highest rate of any QB since at least 2016; the highest rate belongs to last year’s Super Bowl champion, Mahomes. These are not QBs you “pressure”, these are QBs that YOU NEED TO GET TO THE GROUND.
Outlast (4th quarter champion): TE Noah Fant
94% of players listed as “Doubtful” do not end up playing, so I’ll be shocked if DK Metcalf is available. Fant, not JSN or Lockett, could take his place.
My gut is telling me that for the Seahawks to beat the Bills, it’s going to require completing clutch passes in the fourth quarter. It’s been a Noah Fant week, so I’m going out on a limb for a player who hasn’t scored a touchdown in almost two years and saying he’ll come up with late-game heroics.
Fant is on a hot streak (21 straight catches) and he’s been the QB’s safety net recently, especially in the fourth quarter: Fant has four more targets and three more catches than any other quarter. This transition from a blocker to a receiver against the Falcons was a thing of beauty:
Outplay (MVP): DT Byron Murphy II
All due respect, the number of people saying that the Rams have “the best young defensive line” after Thursday night’s win was a little too much for me given that “L.A.’s four” are not even as promising as “Seattle’s three”. If we leave Leonard Williams out of it because “young”, I’d still rank all of Murphy, Derick Hall, and Boye Mafe above the entire Rams’ defensive line.
One of their sacks on TNF was famously an uncalled facemask!
We haven’t really seen what Murphy is capable of yet because he missed half of the season, plus when he plays he’s only about a 50-60% snaps player so far. His playing time will increase because he changes the field so much when he’s out there and Seattle’s best four games are the four he played in.
Seahawks 2024 pressure rate (Pressures per Pass Rush Snap) Leaders:
Boye Mafe, 21 pressures on 111 snaps (15.6%)
Derick Hall, 24/153 (14.5%)
Jarran Reed, 20/161 (12.2%)
Dre’Mont Jones, 20/161 (12.2%)
Leonard Williams, 17/145 (11.5%)
Byron Murphy, 7/66 (10.6%)
In Murphy’s return last week, Hall’s pressure rate was 28%, Jones’ was 24%, Reed’s was 19%, Williams’ was 18%, and Murphy was at 13%. Go back to his last healthy game in Week 2, Mafe was at 27%, Murphy at 22%, and Williams at 18%. (That’s the other half of comparing the Rams to the Seahawks: Seattle also has Williams, Reed, and Jones!)
Murphy isn’t just having an impact on his own, he’s opening those pass rush lanes for his teammates. As Bruce Irvin once told me, “It ain’t no fun if the homies can’t have none”.
As much as I wanted to give this to Ernest Jones in his debut, I think he will end up with a lot of tackles and plenty of film highlights on Twitter next week. Murphy’s impact is just more significant this week.
Jay’s Says
The hero of the week is Byron Murphy II. The Seahawks weren't doing so well while Murphy was out but once he returned to the field, the Hawks scored a win! I quit my job a couple weeks ago and my former co-workers told me that my department is now falling apart without me. Though, unlike Murphy, I'm not going back!
The zero of the week is... wait a minute! Buffalo Bill? Someone call Jodie Foster! A deranged serial killer is playing football! No, thank you!
(I don’t want to influence her picks so we don’t talk beforehand and doubly-good we both picked Murphy.)
Seaside Joe 2064
My vision for tomorrow is that somebody is going to run the routes DK would normally run and I have a feeling that person will be Shenault, who may have a surprising game.
I have had a vision of the running game getting going for WEEKS now and while K9 got two TDs last week we have yet to see a real dominate running game from the Seahawks… this could be the game where the Seahawks get 150+ on the ground from K9 and Charbs.
On D I have a vision that Allen’s turnover luck runs out and he gets picked twice… Witherspoon and Bryant. A late FG gives the Seahawks the win.
I'm glad you mentioned Fant and those types of plays; I noticed he's been used on, and found success with, slip releases and chip-to-flat stuff more and particularly on play-action. He's still getting work in the intermediate areas but the short stuff in space has looked particularly promising.