Back to 'back' defense

Another argument in defense of drafting Kenneth Walker III in the second round

The 2025 Seattle Seahawks are headed to the Super Bowl with the deserved label of being an elite “defensive team” thanks to ranking first in points allowed per game and per drive, first in yards per carry allowed, first in DVOA, and second in yards per pass allowed.

Bonus article: Seahawks film studies!

At 25th in yards per carry, the Seahawks are decidedly NOT defined by their rushing offense. However, it is their run game and oftentimes their best running back that has helped Seattle go from a wild card team in mid-December to the best team by late January.

Who said that Kenneth Walker III “doesn’t matter”?

Defense does win championships

Of the 10 times that the Seahawks have had a top-7 scoring offense, they only won the division twice (2005, 2025) and those are also the best two rankings in franchise history for point scored.

But of the 11 times that the Seahawks have had a top-7 scoring defense, they won the division SIX times: 2005, 2007, 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2025. Of the five times Seattle had the number one scoring defense, they reached the Super Bowl three times and won a playoff game in each of the other two seasons.

A great defense can stand on its own. A great offense needs help. (Like the probably underrated 2005 defense.) But if there’s an idea complement to a great defense, it’s a rushing attack and a premier running back.

• The 2005 and 2007 division-winning Seahawks had Shaun Alexander.

• The 2013 and 2014 Super Bowl Seahawks had Marshawn Lynch.

• The 2025 Seahawks have Kenneth Walker III.

Four years after the Seahawks received more criticism for drafting a running back than the backlash for every other pick on this list:

Walker is mastering the art of being a hot hand at the exact right time. In his last 5 games, Walker has 80 carries for 426 yards (5.3 YPC), 5 touchdowns (4 in the playoffs), 16 catches on 16 targets for 184 yards, 15 broken tackles, and 28 first downs.

That would be a full season pace of 2,087 total yards. That’s important for a reason:

The argument that you shouldn’t draft running backs in the first or second round is heavily dependent on evidence that 2,000-yard seasons are common from players in any round. However, in the last 25 years there have only been five such examples and all five backs were drafted in the third round. Barely outside of the second. None from the 4th-7th rounds. The most recent player to do it was David Johnson in 2015.

In the same time frame, there have been six times as many (31 examples) 2,000+ yard seasons by first and second round backs and the truly elite ones were drafted in the top-10.

Is Walker an elite running back? Maybe not. But he has clearly been the best running back during the playoffs and the Seahawks are proving that teams CAN win the Super Bowl on the back of their backs. (Drafted in the top-50.)

They said that 41 was too soon for Kenneth Walker III

The Seahawks didn’t catch any flak for drafting an edge rusher at pick 40 in 2022, but the running back they chose at 41 was unfortunately subjected to the analytics debate that “anyone could do that job because offensive linemen exist”.

Who gets more credit for getting the Seahawks to the Super Bowl: Walker or Boye Mafe?

I’m sorry that I have to frame it like that, as if Mafe did something wrong, but just remember that certain people were already framing Walker and all running backs and all GMs who draft running backs as “bad guys” before the draft even happens. A GM is allowed to do almost anything he wants in the draft (like taking Kenny Pickett at 22 just because he’s a local QB) … just don’t take a running back before day three.

Well, I no longer ascribe to the theory that running backs are replaceable, or that they are any more dependent on a good offensive line than quarterbacks are. It’s the ultimate team sport: Every player is depending on their teammates.

You would also hope that the purpose of analytics is to CONTINUOUSLY move a conversation forward with new information and advanced data, like how running backs 1) create their own yards, 2) create first downs, and 3) create touchdowns in spite of offensive line play.

2025 playoff stats

Instead, the “running backs don’t matter” argument stopped evolving from the day it was popularized about eight years ago by Ben Baldwin on the very site I was running…because I asked him to write it based on a tweet of his that I saw. (I don’t take any credit for Ben’s article or the impressive following he’s created, nor do I think that it’s a wholly original or new idea to presume that run blocking helps and hinders runners.)

New O-Line Committee video on Walker.

Except that Walker was drafted in the second round — probably still a good 20 or so picks later than he would have gone a decade earlier — because he is a special creator:

• Walker’s 6 broken tackles in the playoffs is two more than any other player despite Seattle only playing two games + 2 broken tackles on receptions in the NFC Championship

• His broken tackle every 6.3 attempts in the playoffs is twice as good as Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson

• Walker had the fourth-most broken tackles in the regular season, but had fewer rushing attempts than the three players ranked ahead of him

In 2023, the Falcons were criticized for drafting Bijan Robinson eighth overall despite universal praise for Robinson as one of those special dual-threat talents who could generate 2,000 yards on any offense. Yahoo’s Charles Macdonald said that there’s no need to draft Robinson when Atlanta already has Tyler Allgeier; CBS’s Pete Prisco said that running backs don’t help teams win Super Bowls; The Athletic compared Robinson to Hall of Famers…and then gave the pick a D+.

What amazes me is that the media is allowed to continue this charade without any blowback for being wrong every year:

• Robinson led the NFL in total yards (2,298) in 2025 and had over 1,400 rushing yards for the second year in a row without a good team

• Allgeier is clearly a backup running back

• Saquon Barkley clearly led the Eagles to a Super Bowl last season

Most of the NFL’s top running backs have consistently come out of the first and second round in the past 10 years (McCaffrey, Barkley, Henry, Chubb, Jacobs, Taylor, D Cook, Elliott, Bijan, Gibbs, J Cook) and 10 of the top-12 players in rushing yards this season were first or second round picks; exceptions were third rounder De’Von Achane and Kyren Williams.

And when someone says that Kyren was a fifth rounder, ask why that matters more than Brock Purdy being a seventh rounder or Puka Nacua being a fifth rounder or Tariq Woolen being a fifth rounder or Danielle Hunter being a third rounder.

If you watch every Walker game and every Kyren game (like I do), it’s been obvious during all four seasons why they were drafted over 120 picks apart. Kyren is good. He is a steal. He’s NOT Kenneth Walker. He’s not as fast, not as twitchy, doesn’t have as good vision, and doesn’t put the Rams on his back the way that Walker can go to Seattle’s coaches and say “put this one on me, I got it from here”. This stuff is insane but normal for Walker:

Walker has 10 first down runs in two playoff games.

That’s the most by any running back in the playoffs and he’s only had 38 runs. Walker’s contributions to get the Seahawks to the Super Bowl are INDISPUTIBLE and HE’S A RUNNING BACK and HE’S A SECOND ROUND PICK. In the range of the draft where it’s “okay” to draft a center or a situational run-stopping defensive tackle or Christian Hackenberg, it’s a D+ draft grade to take someone who touches the ball 20 or 25 times per game!

Not for nothing but the few running backs who are SO GOOD that fans from any city will tune into watch (Gibbs, Bijan, Saquon, McCaffrey) were drafted in the top-half of the first round; and the second round gave us Walker, Henry, Cook, and Taylor. They weren’t seventh round picks.

Admittedly, Walker hasn’t been undeniable for the entirety of his four year career. Neither was Bijan or Barkley. Putting Ashton Jeanty on the Raiders was a miscalculation too, but history suggests that he’s only getting started. Which other position tends to have a lot of first or second round draft picks who have bad rookie seasons and are inconsistent and sometimes maddening?

ALL OF THE POSITIONS!

It is only because of the “running backs don’t matter” label that running backs are the only ones constantly scrutinized for negatives that happen to every kind of draft pick. Four years into Kenneth Walker’s career he is arguably the BEST player from Seattle’s (very good) 2022 class and that’s not a knock on Cross, Lucas, Bryant, or Woolen…but if you just said “show me the best FOOTBALL PLAYER here”, wouldn’t Walker be the top choice for a lot of us?

He’s better than the 10 players drafted ahead of him with the exception of one (S Jalen Pitre) and maybe one other guy…a running back (Breece Hall). Certainly he’s doing more than Boye Mafe.

Given the injury to Zach Charbonnet, there has never been a better time for a team to have two second round running backs. Given that the Super Bowl will be Walker’s last game with the Seahawks unless they sign the impending free agent to a new contract after the season, there’s never been a better time to appreciate what a great draft pick really looks like while he’s doing all the carrying.

Seaside Joe 2522