On top of that, looking at the balance of the second round, only 3 guys stick out. George Pickens (but none of us want that attitude) Trey McBride (yes he’s great) and Nic Bonitto, Denver’s very good LB. And James Cook, another RB.
On top of that, looking at the balance of the second round, only 3 guys stick out. George Pickens (but none of us want that attitude) Trey McBride (yes he’s great) and Nic Bonitto, Denver’s very good LB. And James Cook, another RB.
I've never believed the whole "running backs don't matter" theory. I'm not an analytics geek, but I have eyes. Walker is a better running back than Holani which isn't knock on Holani who filled in competently the other day (at least as a receiver/blocker)or Charbonett, who I love. Franco Harris was better than Rocky Bleier, Gale Sayers was better than Brian Piccolo, Emmitt Smith was better than his teammates, as was Shaun Alexander, Walter Payton, Marshawn, Barry Sanders, CMC, Saquon, etc. and most of those were first round picks. Of course there are a few later round success stories, but that's true at any position, Tom Brady springs to mind, or Puka currently. Those successes don't negate the fact that most of the greats at any position were higher round picks. The NFL is full of smart people whose livelihood depends on evaluating talent and potential of hundreds of young men each year so if they think a RB is the best available prospect when it's draft time then they should give him strong consideration (I know team roster/needs play a factor).
I might even be a contrarian who says a 1st round RB is more likely to contribute immediately than a QB who needs more time to learn the position. I applauded the selections of Walker and Charbonett in successive drafts and think the Hawks should probably make that type pick every 2-3 years.
I think I saw pff had Seattle moving up in round one to select RB Jerimiah Love...I couldn't be happier with that. It's still football and running backs Def matter. Great article. Watching a lot of patriot games this week, my over all take is they seem pretty good, but I think we match up well. I could see Maye running some successfully, but they don't look dominate like Seattle does. I would say this might be another blow out like the Denver bowl but I think it will be closer than that...but still could be over by halftime. Trying to be impartial and independent but these Seahawks look tough in all three phases. New england looks good and while they don't dominate, they barely win a ton of plays and if they can keep just barely winning plays they might be a tougher out than many of us think.
I definitely want to see Walker stay, and that's kinda nuts that PFF has the Seahawks trading up for a RB in the first round if true, but in this league you move onto the next very quickly. Definitely think some sort of RB talent is gonna be required.
"You pass to score, and run to win." Running is much much more than just gaining yards and as a change up to passing. Running is also about taking time off the clock, and giving your defense a chance to catch their breath.
And at the end of the game when we are ahead and have the ball, we want to run to run out the clock. If you can NOT run the ball for first downs at that point in the game, you either have to pass for first downs or you end up punting the ball back to the opponents. That's what it means to "run to win." i.e. running when they know you want to run. That wins games.
Especially when those defenses are built to defend the pass. Personnel and depth rotations are just now adjusting to a more run-centric attack, which means those offenses that focus on it hace stacked an edge
I think one reason for the devaluation of running backs has to be the perceived lack of longevity. For every Saquon Barkley, there seem to be a lot of Trent Richardsons, CJ Spillers, Todd Gurley's and Darren McFaddens. And that's just a few picked in the early first round that come to mind. When so few of them don't play out their 2nd contract due to injury, I'd think that's got to hurt their draft stock just by the position they play. I think it was Micheal-Shawn Dugar a few years ago who proposed that RBs get their own set of contracts that don't impact the cap the same, but I could have the details wrong. At any rate, in what's already a car crash sport, they're sitting on the hood without a seat belt. But as linebackers get smaller and faster to counteract the passing schemes, the RB value just goes up. They matter.
I think you're right that it has a lot to do with perception. Because I swear that CBs tear their ACLs and get wrecked at least as often as RBs. The fact that McCaffrey, Barkley, and Henry have had such long careers with some of their best work on their second contracts. I mean, that's rare for anybody and I think some of the best late-20s work is done by great backs. We'll probably see it with Jonathan Taylor and Kenneth Walker too.
Defensive backs are the most oft-injured positions, there's little doubt. I'm not sure who tracks things like injury by position per snap, but almost every team loses multiple DBs every year.
The Hawks have won a conference championship four times—three times with a starting running back drafted in the first round and once with the starting RB drafted in the second. Mike Holmgren, who did as much to influence the modern passing offense as any coach not named Coryell or Walsh, valued Shaun Alexander so much as a rusher that he took Shaun out of the passing offense even though he had caught 145 passes in three seasons.*
Anyway, the reason that whoever plays RB matters comes down to math—a concept that the analytics should grasp. Once the ball is handed off, the QB is out of the play. The leaves nine potential blockers on offense to account for eleven players on defense. Whoever is carrying the ball must be able to make at least one tackler miss. Oh, OCs can scheme a back into the open field a few times, but across the entirety of a game there is no way around the necessity of the RB being to make 1-2 tacklers miss. Unsurprisingly, the ones who are best at doing this get drafted early.
This is why PCJS took Rashad Penny: His feet were astounding, like he was born to make tacklers miss. Sadly, a player who didn’t miss a game in college couldn’t hold up in the pros, but there was no way of knowing that.
For a few seasons, RBs became devalued, which gave rise to the “don’t matter” argument as if it were an enduring truism. However, as DCs adapted to the modern passing game, RBs became important again. I.e., they matter.
* Shaun is arguably second only to John L. Williams as the best receiving RB in team history.
Ricky had no help from his OL and yet he treated every play as if it were life or death. I don’t know that I’ve ever personally seen a more committed player.
I stand by my assertion we should have drafted Bijan (because I had Witherspoon going to the Colts at 4, and we all see how AR and not a CB went for them, this year especially, never forget the Sauce trade!).
KW3 has won me over on a second contract DEPENDING on its size. I don't think he's a 3-down bell cow RB, he's a 2-down speed threat. I think he needs a Charbie around to shine, allowing him rest and to focus on being his best self rather than a role he isn't suited to.
Get him back. Get Shaheed back. Draft a WR early. Make this offence even stronger, scare the shit out of the NFL next year figuring out how to stop us.
If you REALLY want to scare the NFL, make your first two picks a CB and a WR (even though we get Horton back), and then sign Joel Bitonio and Trey Hendrickson
I have no idea how much gas Hendrickson has left in the tank, but this defense is a great edge rusher away from going from great to terrifying. Terrifying Trey has a good ring to it.
I keep arguing that positional value is a chimera. Or an analyst's crutch. Or a coward's refrain, if one is a GM. (I'm not necessarily right, and I do know our host argues otherwise most times. No disrespect meant.)
Difference-making players with demonstrated production matter. (In fact, I think that just crystalized my draft philosophy. Not that it matters.) At any position. At every position. Elite players at any position, even IOL, are levers which give good OCs options and opposing DCs fits.
I feel bad for Jeanty. He deserved better. I hope whoever takes the Raiders gig (god bless) does right by him (and Brock Bowers). Ah. A corollary. Skill players on either side of the balls cannot overcome bad line play.
Kudos to the team for its load management acumen this season, especially at RB. I think that's a big part of why Walker is closing strong.
I love Walker's explosiveness, ellusiveness, and toughness. I hope that coaching he's received the last year or so has cured him of the tendency to unnecessarily stop and change direction.
I feel like he needs be allowed to improvise when it makes sense, but we need to stay on schedule and for some time he would get a lot of negative plays.
He's a great player. I just want him to play somewhat within the offensive scheme rather than trying to hit a home run on every play
He looks like he's learning too -- hitting holes more quickly with just one move (although the two moves he laid on that Rams LB are going to go down in history, holy Barry Sanders!), and the smoother way he's flaring out for dump-offs or screens (can you believe it everyone, SEATTLE CAN RUN A SCREEN PLAY!!), think he's really improved his value to the team. Gonna be more expensive but gonna be worth it too.
Always been a K9 fan, have a soft spot for guys who look like they're shot from a cannon.
So Ken, didn't Hawks have a 5th yr K9 option they chose not to.exercize last yr?
Maybe the core injury a couple years ago. Like Charbonnet, guys that hurl their body into 1200 lbs of muscle going the other way (and K9 does push a 1200 lb pile occasionally) can end their season or career in a second.
Probably why the RBs don't matter theory (Gurley comes to mind and there's others) got some play.
Other K9 attribute is dual threat pass catching hands. There's one other I won't mention bc don't wanna jinx it ;-)
Look how much the NFL has changed since 2018. What guys like Ben Baldwin miss is that the NFL is constantly changing and evolving.
Top passers Yards/Game 2018
1) 320 yards
2) 318 yards
3) 308 yards
16) 266 yards
Offenses had exploded back then primarily due to rule changes. But that was then this is now:
Top passers Yards/Game 2025
1) 277 yards
2) 269 yards
3) 268 yards
16) 225 yards!
The Seahawks drafted a RB at pick 41 at a great time to buy. In 2025, passing has gone back down due primarily to advances in defenses. Those advances largely driven by exotic looks and pressure. Linebackers have gotten smaller. So, one way to counter that? Running
Also, always less turnovers when running the ball especially with the two guys we drafted.
Exactly. As things shift one way ,the pendulum always swings back and the league is favoring offenses that are built to overpower the smaller defensive end pass rushers. Which perhaps is why the Seahawks rank #1 in run D with your bigger LWill, BMur, Dlaw types.
"...argument stopped evolving from the day it was popularized about eight years ago by Ben Baldwin on the very site I was running"
Another favorite from the article:
"...or that they are any more dependent on a good offensive line than quarterbacks are. It’s the ultimate team sport: Every player is depending on their teammates.
You would also hope that the purpose of analytics is to CONTINUOUSLY move a conversation forward with new information and advanced data"
You would hope! But sometimes even analytics gets stuck and their creators continually dig their heals in deeper.
On top of that, looking at the balance of the second round, only 3 guys stick out. George Pickens (but none of us want that attitude) Trey McBride (yes he’s great) and Nic Bonitto, Denver’s very good LB. And James Cook, another RB.
On top of that, looking at the balance of the second round, only 3 guys stick out. George Pickens (but none of us want that attitude) Trey McBride (yes he’s great) and Nic Bonitto, Denver’s very good LB. And James Cook, another RB.
I know for a fact that SSJ has a folder on his PC titled "Computer Cowboy Compromat".
Well, almost a fact. Stunt on him, Ken.
I've never believed the whole "running backs don't matter" theory. I'm not an analytics geek, but I have eyes. Walker is a better running back than Holani which isn't knock on Holani who filled in competently the other day (at least as a receiver/blocker)or Charbonett, who I love. Franco Harris was better than Rocky Bleier, Gale Sayers was better than Brian Piccolo, Emmitt Smith was better than his teammates, as was Shaun Alexander, Walter Payton, Marshawn, Barry Sanders, CMC, Saquon, etc. and most of those were first round picks. Of course there are a few later round success stories, but that's true at any position, Tom Brady springs to mind, or Puka currently. Those successes don't negate the fact that most of the greats at any position were higher round picks. The NFL is full of smart people whose livelihood depends on evaluating talent and potential of hundreds of young men each year so if they think a RB is the best available prospect when it's draft time then they should give him strong consideration (I know team roster/needs play a factor).
I might even be a contrarian who says a 1st round RB is more likely to contribute immediately than a QB who needs more time to learn the position. I applauded the selections of Walker and Charbonett in successive drafts and think the Hawks should probably make that type pick every 2-3 years.
I think I saw pff had Seattle moving up in round one to select RB Jerimiah Love...I couldn't be happier with that. It's still football and running backs Def matter. Great article. Watching a lot of patriot games this week, my over all take is they seem pretty good, but I think we match up well. I could see Maye running some successfully, but they don't look dominate like Seattle does. I would say this might be another blow out like the Denver bowl but I think it will be closer than that...but still could be over by halftime. Trying to be impartial and independent but these Seahawks look tough in all three phases. New england looks good and while they don't dominate, they barely win a ton of plays and if they can keep just barely winning plays they might be a tougher out than many of us think.
I definitely want to see Walker stay, and that's kinda nuts that PFF has the Seahawks trading up for a RB in the first round if true, but in this league you move onto the next very quickly. Definitely think some sort of RB talent is gonna be required.
"You pass to score, and run to win." Running is much much more than just gaining yards and as a change up to passing. Running is also about taking time off the clock, and giving your defense a chance to catch their breath.
And at the end of the game when we are ahead and have the ball, we want to run to run out the clock. If you can NOT run the ball for first downs at that point in the game, you either have to pass for first downs or you end up punting the ball back to the opponents. That's what it means to "run to win." i.e. running when they know you want to run. That wins games.
So true.
Big Time Rrec, Stephen.
I think a punishing run game physically wears out the opposing defenses as well. Walker has been absolutely dealing punishment on those short runs.
Especially when those defenses are built to defend the pass. Personnel and depth rotations are just now adjusting to a more run-centric attack, which means those offenses that focus on it hace stacked an edge
True that.
Great article K1.
The tweet by Jon Bois.. “.. great, but you didn’t get the first down”
🤣
Thanks!
I think one reason for the devaluation of running backs has to be the perceived lack of longevity. For every Saquon Barkley, there seem to be a lot of Trent Richardsons, CJ Spillers, Todd Gurley's and Darren McFaddens. And that's just a few picked in the early first round that come to mind. When so few of them don't play out their 2nd contract due to injury, I'd think that's got to hurt their draft stock just by the position they play. I think it was Micheal-Shawn Dugar a few years ago who proposed that RBs get their own set of contracts that don't impact the cap the same, but I could have the details wrong. At any rate, in what's already a car crash sport, they're sitting on the hood without a seat belt. But as linebackers get smaller and faster to counteract the passing schemes, the RB value just goes up. They matter.
I think you're right that it has a lot to do with perception. Because I swear that CBs tear their ACLs and get wrecked at least as often as RBs. The fact that McCaffrey, Barkley, and Henry have had such long careers with some of their best work on their second contracts. I mean, that's rare for anybody and I think some of the best late-20s work is done by great backs. We'll probably see it with Jonathan Taylor and Kenneth Walker too.
Defensive backs are the most oft-injured positions, there's little doubt. I'm not sure who tracks things like injury by position per snap, but almost every team loses multiple DBs every year.
Agree with this... The days of every team having a bell cow ringing up 250-300 carries per season seem to be a thing of the past.
The Hawks have won a conference championship four times—three times with a starting running back drafted in the first round and once with the starting RB drafted in the second. Mike Holmgren, who did as much to influence the modern passing offense as any coach not named Coryell or Walsh, valued Shaun Alexander so much as a rusher that he took Shaun out of the passing offense even though he had caught 145 passes in three seasons.*
Anyway, the reason that whoever plays RB matters comes down to math—a concept that the analytics should grasp. Once the ball is handed off, the QB is out of the play. The leaves nine potential blockers on offense to account for eleven players on defense. Whoever is carrying the ball must be able to make at least one tackler miss. Oh, OCs can scheme a back into the open field a few times, but across the entirety of a game there is no way around the necessity of the RB being to make 1-2 tacklers miss. Unsurprisingly, the ones who are best at doing this get drafted early.
This is why PCJS took Rashad Penny: His feet were astounding, like he was born to make tacklers miss. Sadly, a player who didn’t miss a game in college couldn’t hold up in the pros, but there was no way of knowing that.
For a few seasons, RBs became devalued, which gave rise to the “don’t matter” argument as if it were an enduring truism. However, as DCs adapted to the modern passing game, RBs became important again. I.e., they matter.
* Shaun is arguably second only to John L. Williams as the best receiving RB in team history.
I would add Ricky Watters to the list as well. All great receiving backs.
Ricky had no help from his OL and yet he treated every play as if it were life or death. I don’t know that I’ve ever personally seen a more committed player.
I really liked Ricky's play all the way back to his Niner days. The guy was a baller.
KENNETH WALKER the III ! ! ! Gratitude.
I stand by my assertion we should have drafted Bijan (because I had Witherspoon going to the Colts at 4, and we all see how AR and not a CB went for them, this year especially, never forget the Sauce trade!).
KW3 has won me over on a second contract DEPENDING on its size. I don't think he's a 3-down bell cow RB, he's a 2-down speed threat. I think he needs a Charbie around to shine, allowing him rest and to focus on being his best self rather than a role he isn't suited to.
Get him back. Get Shaheed back. Draft a WR early. Make this offence even stronger, scare the shit out of the NFL next year figuring out how to stop us.
Bijan would have been a really fascinating pick and a heck of a weapon on this team.
If you REALLY want to scare the NFL, make your first two picks a CB and a WR (even though we get Horton back), and then sign Joel Bitonio and Trey Hendrickson
I have no idea how much gas Hendrickson has left in the tank, but this defense is a great edge rusher away from going from great to terrifying. Terrifying Trey has a good ring to it.
Yeah.
"Do you have a good pass rush?""
"Trey bien!"
Well-said and well-reasoned, sir.
I keep arguing that positional value is a chimera. Or an analyst's crutch. Or a coward's refrain, if one is a GM. (I'm not necessarily right, and I do know our host argues otherwise most times. No disrespect meant.)
Difference-making players with demonstrated production matter. (In fact, I think that just crystalized my draft philosophy. Not that it matters.) At any position. At every position. Elite players at any position, even IOL, are levers which give good OCs options and opposing DCs fits.
I feel bad for Jeanty. He deserved better. I hope whoever takes the Raiders gig (god bless) does right by him (and Brock Bowers). Ah. A corollary. Skill players on either side of the balls cannot overcome bad line play.
Kudos to the team for its load management acumen this season, especially at RB. I think that's a big part of why Walker is closing strong.
Totally agree. If Kubiak goes to LV, Jeanty may get his chance to shine.
Cannot underestimate the difference of having Cross, Lucas and Zabel (and maybe Sundell?), WOW
I love Walker's explosiveness, ellusiveness, and toughness. I hope that coaching he's received the last year or so has cured him of the tendency to unnecessarily stop and change direction.
I feel like he needs be allowed to improvise when it makes sense, but we need to stay on schedule and for some time he would get a lot of negative plays.
He's a great player. I just want him to play somewhat within the offensive scheme rather than trying to hit a home run on every play
He looks like he's learning too -- hitting holes more quickly with just one move (although the two moves he laid on that Rams LB are going to go down in history, holy Barry Sanders!), and the smoother way he's flaring out for dump-offs or screens (can you believe it everyone, SEATTLE CAN RUN A SCREEN PLAY!!), think he's really improved his value to the team. Gonna be more expensive but gonna be worth it too.
Always been a K9 fan, have a soft spot for guys who look like they're shot from a cannon.
So Ken, didn't Hawks have a 5th yr K9 option they chose not to.exercize last yr?
Maybe the core injury a couple years ago. Like Charbonnet, guys that hurl their body into 1200 lbs of muscle going the other way (and K9 does push a 1200 lb pile occasionally) can end their season or career in a second.
Probably why the RBs don't matter theory (Gurley comes to mind and there's others) got some play.
Other K9 attribute is dual threat pass catching hands. There's one other I won't mention bc don't wanna jinx it ;-)
My understanding is that the 5th year option is only for first round picks.
K9 has been awesome. And I think having him split carries with Charbs has proven to be smart as he looks very fresh right now.
Ok thanks. I'm sure SSJ and others explained this. I'll file in special memory to retain for 10 minutes instead of 5...
Maybe Hawks re sign K9 to, among other things, keep him away from Rams, 49rs. Don't want to face what McVay, Stafford et al would do w/K9!
And even though McCaffrey getting up there, a K9/McCaffrey combo would be nasty too...
Yeah what Mike McD said is correct.
I think/hope K9 is staying!
This is true. Only 1st round have a 5th year option. So it wasn't an option for Walker.
Quick follow up:
Look how much the NFL has changed since 2018. What guys like Ben Baldwin miss is that the NFL is constantly changing and evolving.
Top passers Yards/Game 2018
1) 320 yards
2) 318 yards
3) 308 yards
16) 266 yards
Offenses had exploded back then primarily due to rule changes. But that was then this is now:
Top passers Yards/Game 2025
1) 277 yards
2) 269 yards
3) 268 yards
16) 225 yards!
The Seahawks drafted a RB at pick 41 at a great time to buy. In 2025, passing has gone back down due primarily to advances in defenses. Those advances largely driven by exotic looks and pressure. Linebackers have gotten smaller. So, one way to counter that? Running
Also, always less turnovers when running the ball especially with the two guys we drafted.
Exactly. As things shift one way ,the pendulum always swings back and the league is favoring offenses that are built to overpower the smaller defensive end pass rushers. Which perhaps is why the Seahawks rank #1 in run D with your bigger LWill, BMur, Dlaw types.
Thanks Joe!
Inspired by this from the article:
"...argument stopped evolving from the day it was popularized about eight years ago by Ben Baldwin on the very site I was running"
Another favorite from the article:
"...or that they are any more dependent on a good offensive line than quarterbacks are. It’s the ultimate team sport: Every player is depending on their teammates.
You would also hope that the purpose of analytics is to CONTINUOUSLY move a conversation forward with new information and advanced data"
You would hope! But sometimes even analytics gets stuck and their creators continually dig their heals in deeper.
There are four new breakdowns of parts of the NFC Championship at All_22’s YouTube channel.
https://m.youtube.com/@all_22_films/videos
Thank you, Rusty. Good watch.
Thanks Rusty!
Thanks for this, Rusty.