NFC West Preview: Are 49ers in trouble?

Kicker and QB troubles in Santa Clara? Seaside Joe 1626

The San Francisco 49ers have two potential problems that everyone is talking about, one of which is the NFL’s most important position, while the other is on special teams but at times can be just as important to winning the game.

The latter issue is at kicker.

I’ve felt for a while now that the 49ers’ draft success has been as exaggerated as the idea that the team plays “in San Francisco”. Sure, credit them with a few steals (George Kittle in the fifth, Fred Warner in the third, Deebo Samuel in the second, Talanoa Hufanga in the fifth, Brock Purdy in the seventh) but how can anyone reconcile those moves as “purposeful” when it’s the same organization that traded up for Trey Lance? The same team that picked Mike McGlinchey over Minkah Fitzpatrick, Daron Payne, and Derwin James? Or Solomon Thomas instead of Patrick Mahomes?

The most acceptable defense is, “Well, Joe, it’s ALL a crapshoot!” That’s fine, too. Then we don’t have to give general manager John Lynch too much credit.

However, does the “crapshoot” argument fall apart when an organization drafts a punter in the fourth round (and Mitch Wishnowsky has been far less interesting and impactful than fellow Aussie Michael Dickson) and a kicker in the third round?

I don’t want to be the guy who overstates the importance of one bad game (one of Jake Moody’s two missed attempts was from 58 yards), but we have seen the story of the highly-touted rookie kicker who crumbles under the pressure of being highly-touted. The Buccaneers drafted kicker Roberto Aguayo in the second round in 2016, cut him in 2017, and he never reappeared in the NFL. The Jets picked Mike Nugent in the second round in 2005 and though he had a fine career overall, struggled with New York and didn’t last long there.

The 49ers couldn’t wait to find a replacement for Robbie Gould, they had to make Moody the highest-drafted kicker since Aguayo. But two more preseason games like Sunday’s 34-7 loss to the Raiders and Kyle Shanahan may not comfortable keeping Moody over Zane Gonzalez, a veteran who the team traded for in March.

That would end up making Moody one of the most unique ways to waste a third round draft pick that I’ve ever heard about.

Where are they know? Bonus: Building a 53-man roster out of all former Seahawks currently on other teams!

The other, more important problem that San Francisco could be dealing with is whether they actually have three, two, one, or zero good quarterbacks. The upshot for Seahawks fans is that regardless of the right answer to that question, at least it’s entertaining to watch fans tear apart fans & beat reporters contradict other beat reporters over what the actual truth is about Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, and Sam Darnold.

^Trey Lance vs the Raiders (but TD should have been an INT)

My first thought as to how many good quarterbacks the 49ers have is that the number definitely isn’t three. You could argue that the 49ers haven’t had any “great” quarterback since Steve Young, no “good” quarterback since Jeff Garcia, and nobody who had the potential to be good since Alex Smith. At best, Jimmy Garoppolo was “good enough”. So I refuse to believe that San Francisco has three good quarterbacks all at once.

Darnold has never been good, so let’s leave that “comeback player of the year resurrected after disastrous start with Jets” story out as a narrative until he actually has a Geno Smith-like season.

Lance looks destined to sit behind Darnold, so the Niners couldn’t possibly have two good quarterbacks. By 2025, Lance is more likely to be starring in a Netflix documentary than on a football field.

That leaves Purdy and I’m going to ignore training camp reports and instead rely on what I remember of the player we saw for eight games last year…I remember that he was good enough.

Only time will tell if he can become good.

For some reason, the cautionary tale that came to my mind for what Purdy must avoid to have success is former Tigers pitcher Mark Fidrych. An out of nowhere success story, a 21-year-old Fidrych led the majors in ERA and complete games in 1976, won Rookie of the Year, and basically had a “Mr. Irrelevant” draft pedigree as a 10th round pick who wasn’t expected to be on the roster that season. Unfortunately, Fidrych suffered a torn rotator cuff in 1977 (not that this is the reason I think of Fidrych, but Purdy suffered a classic baseball-style injury to his elbow that typically impacts pitchers and not quarterbacks) and his career was essentially over.

I hope Purdy feels no ill effects from surgically repaired UCL and that he has 100% of the same ability that he had prior to the injury. That’s not why his first season reminded me of Fidrych. If Purdy fails, let it be for football reasons.

Specifically failing against Seattle’s defense.

Do you like supporting writers who are skeptical and critical of the 49ers??? Do you want more content that gives the truth about Shanahan and Lynch and San Francisco’s embarrassing shortcomings?! Then don’t forget to SUPPORT Seaside Joe with a subscription today! Click this link or hit the following button and become a paid Regular Joes member for $5 per month or $55 for the entire year and I promise that you will get to let your Niners hate flow through Joe:

Could the San Francisco 49ers collapse?

I think we all have fond memories of how the 49ers did in 2017 (6-10), 2018 (4-12), and 2020 (6-10), and that gives Seahawks and Rams fans a perennial hope that Shanahan is always an injury away from complete failure; objective embarassment; unpunished mediocrity.

However, I do think it would take more than a bad kicker or even a bad quarterback to keep the Niners from winning more than they lose in 2023.

The 2020 roster was so decimated by injury losses that it’s hard for me to say that San Francisco could go 7-10 or worse unless they had to play without most of their star players for half-to-most of the season. In 2020, Garoppolo missed 10 games, Nick Bosa missed 14, Deebo Samuel missed nine, George Kittle missed eight, Raheem Mostert missed eight, Brandon Aiyuk missed four, Richard Sherman missed 11, Jaquiski Tartt missed nine, and Kwon Alexander missed 11.

Every team has to deal with injuries, but I’ll allow the 2020 49ers to use it as an excuse because they’ve been the NFC Championship in three of the last four years.

Who is the star of 49ers training camp?

Probably wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. The 25th overall pick in 2020, Aiyuk isn’t as good as classmates Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb, but probably doesn’t get enough credit for at least maybe being as good as Tee Higgins.

If Aiyuk can be a legitimate number one, Purdy’s supporting cast could have three All-Pros (Trent Williams, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey) and at least three Pro Bowlers (Aiyuk, Samuel, Kyle Juszczyk) and even one of the interior offensive linemen could challenge for some honors.

How do the Seahawks match up on defense?

That’s the biggest question, right? McCaffrey had 26 carries for 108 yards and six catches for 30 yards in the regular season, then 15 carries for 119 yards and 17 receiving yards (with a TD) in the wild card round. Seattle’s playoff defeat was their worst defensive performance of the season, by Expected Points Added.

All I can say is that Pete Carroll hopes his changes were the right ones: Dre’Mont Jones, Jarran Reed, Mario Edwards, Cameron Young, and Mike Morris overhauled the defensive front; Bobby Wagner, Devin Bush, Derick Hall added at linebacker; Julian Love, Devon Witherspoon are among the notable additions in the secondary.

Could the 49ers have the number one defense again?

Teams don’t often repeat as defensive champions (although the Seahawks did it…from 2012-2015) and the 49ers ranked first in points allowed, yards allowed, points per drive allowed, DVOA, and interceptions; second in yards per carry allowed and rushing yards allowed.

Can San Francisco do that again?

Though defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans (Texans head coach) is a big loss, Steve Wilks is the perfect replacement.

The 49ers didn’t lose any players who they wanted to keep, but then they added defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, rated by some as the top free agent in the league at any position. By training camp reports, Hargrave has been as advertised and would create another outmatched assignment for Seattle’s interior linemen unless Evan Brown or Olu Oluwatimi prove to be a massive upgrade to Austin Blythe.

This is their depth chart, but one key name missing is Nick Bosa, who will be back:

If it seems contradictory to criticize GM John Lynch right before giving the roster its due for being “stacked”, let me emphasize that the Niners wouldn’t be nearly as special if not for two names: Trent Williams and Nick Bosa. If the 49ers top two players were Warner and Kittle, they’d be better than some teams but maybe not held in any higher regard than, say, the Carolina Panthers.

Well, Bosa was a default reward for being terrible in 2018. Only the stupidest team (in this case, the Cardinals) would have passed on Bosa. Getting Williams was also the byproduct of stupidity, except instead of a GM’s incompetency, it was former Washington owner Dan Snyder.

Is there a chance Nick Bosa doesn’t return?

No. Bosa is holding out and getting fined $50,000 per day, but the 49ers will eventually give him the richest contract for any defensive player who isn’t Aaron Donald and waive his fines. (They can do that because he’s on his rookie deal still. Cowboys guard Zack Martin is holding out but can’t have his fines waived.)

Bosa was credited with 48 QB hits in 2022, 12 more than second place and 19 more than third place. Bosa also missed one game. He was probably the best player in football last season besides Patrick Mahomes and it will be up to the development of Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross to give Geno Smith a little more time in the pocket against the 49ers this year; Bosa had three sacks and eight QB hits in two regular season games against Seattle.

How the Seahawks beat the 49ers

However, more than anything else I’d rather see the Seahawks be able to run the ball efficiently against the 49ers in 2023. Seattle had 36 rushing yards in Week 2, 70 rushing yards in Week 15, and 104 rushing yards in the wild card.

San Francisco had a top-two run defense and they might only be getting better, but the Seahawks need to find a way to be able to play their brand of football against Kyle Shanahan.

What will the 49ers record be?

11-6

I like to say that record predictions should always come with a two-game swing in either direction. So 11-6 means that San Francisco’s record could be anywhere from 9-8 to 13-4.

The biggest obstacle that the 49ers need to overcome is a difficult schedule and a target on their backs. San Francisco has to go to Pittsburgh, they have to go to Minnesota, they have to go to Jacksonville, they have to go to Philadelphia, and they have to go to Cleveland. They host the Cowboys, Bengals, and Ravens.

If they’re really good then they could split those eight games and be 4-4. If they sweep the Rams and Cardinals, that’s another four wins. If they beat the Moons, Giants, and Buccaneers, that puts the 49ers at 11-4. The other two games I haven’t mentioned yet are against the Seahawks.

I’m not trying to tally wins and losses, this is all hypothetical. It’s not easy to go 7-0 against seven teams that you just seem better than on paper. I just see San Francisco right around that 11-6 range; too good to be bad, but in a situation where the schedule might be too competitive for them to be great.

The NFC West could be decided by those two Seahawks-49ers games between Week 12-Week 14. Let me know what you think of the 49ers in the comments:

What’s next?

I was going to preview all three other teams in the NFC West. Clearly I failed and couldn’t be brief enough to get through the San Francisco 49ers in a single newsletter with any room or time left over. Like their next playoff appearance, the Rams and Cardinals will have to wait.

Sunday’s newsletter “Where are Seahawks fans from???” has had an INCREDIBLE showing and FANTASTIC response with over 100 comments and though I haven’t had the chance to read them all yet, am looking forward to doing so on Monday. If you didn’t get in there yet, I suggest you do so now. Take the survey and tell us where you’re from!

If you’ve enjoyed Seaside Joe, please consider supporting this Seahawks endeavor by upgrading your subscription to premium Regular Joes. This is the 1,626th day in a row of sending out a Seahawks newsletter and I would love to keep going for at least another 1,626 days in a row beyond today. The support from this community has been the fuel to keep going without a pit stop:

Where are they know? Bonus: Building a 53-man roster out of all former Seahawks currently on other teams!