We need a reminder of "perspective" on the odds of becoming a good QB: Seaside Joe 1483
For those of you wondering Rob Staton has finally "answered" the Levis vs Lock question:
"Drew Lock is, currently, a second round flop who has achieved nothing since entering the league."
Uhhhwhat? What kind of answer is that? That is what is called a non-answer (because there isn't a good one).
Even if you take that answer ... is Levis not a total flop? He couldn't win the starting job at Penn State and then had a decent season at Kentucky and then a terrible senior year. And don't give me the "SEC", pretty sure the defenses in the NFL are substantially better than the SEC.
Even the leader of the Levis fan club can't give a good answer.
I interpreted it to be for any class, at best a 10% chance 4 quality starters will come out of any one draft and close to zero that 4 franchise QB’s will be in any one draft
That’s the perspective Joe is putting on all the hype — for example if someone were to trade up with AZ, you could get 4 straight QB’s at 1/2/3/4. Will all 4 be worth the picks they were betrothed?
If they are, will be the first time in at least 15 yrs and this will be known as the greatest or near-greatest QB class ever.
Right up there with 1983 (Elway, Marino, Kelly and Ken O’Brien) and 2004 (Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Rivers, Matt Schaub).
That’s what teams would be expecting if this QB class went 1/2/3/4. Joe is just alerting that history would argue someone is likely to be disappointed.
Although there’s a first time for everything
And he himself acknowledges the potential benefit is worth the risk given positional value.
Just buyer beware. Someone at 1/2/3/4 will be wrong.
Having caught up on Mayo-Man's ProDay, i highly doubt we'll look back in 5 years and say he was one of the Top5 QB's in this class. When everything is ideally set to make you look perfect, he just didn't... Concerned about his base mechanics, which yes you can train, but at this point he should have absolutely locked. Putting his ProDay tape up side-by-side with Young & Stroud he looks two or three tiers behind them to my very much non-professional eyes.
My guess when we look back at this year, it'll be #1 Stroud, #2 Hooker, #3 Bennett, #4 Young, #5 AR - but Bennett will be the one with a Superbowl ring, and Young the most "what if's" having been stuck on bad teams/with bad coaches. AR makes the list as he flashes insane talent but never elevates a team to the next level. Stroud takes home the OROY, gets a solid set of Playoff wins, but never the big prize. Hooker just becomes a Cousins type, super solid, winning record after winning record but never quite the elite.
From the first classes i thought 'the first QB taken had been good at least'...Then came E.J. Manuel and Blake Bortles.
Selfies are fun! Data about failed QBs is not fun. Mock drafts are fun! Sober analysis is not fun. Having said that, last season it was fun to be a Seahawks fan again! Everything feels new and exciting! Let’s go!
Frightening that the million dollar GM's are wrong most of the time & get to keep their top 5% paying jobs.
So . . . we have the BEST quarterback from the 2013 draft, the 3rd-best quarterback from the 2019 draft, and history will show that we're going to select the BEST quarterback from the 2023 draft . . . it's a GREAT time to be a Seahawks fan!! Go, us! (and Go Hawks!)
A great reminder of the serious risk that goes with taking a QB high in the draft. Personally, I think Young and Stroud will go near the top -- likely 1-2 -- and then we'll see. I'd not be surprised to see Richardson and Levis fall to the second round or beyond. In 2021 we saw five QBs go in round one, three at the very top of the board. As it turns out, only Lawrence appears to have been clearly worth taking and he was seen as a generational talent at the time.
I don't think any of this year's class can be called a sure thing. If Young was four inches taller and 20 pounds of muscle heavier, he'd be the clear guy (and a no-brainer, given his chances of success in the NFL). But size risk is real and Stroud had all of one great game in college. Richardson and Levis didn't even have that.
Over 100 comments! Great to see, but poor Joe getting less time in the day due to reading them all 😛.
Florida love to pick QBs! Dolphins x4, Buccs x4, Jags x4. Jets, 49ers, Eagles & Pats also with four entries on the list.
The Aaron Rodgers Packers made 3 QB picks. Same as the Steelers, Rams, Broncos, Bengals & Bills.
Only the Lions, Seahawks, Moons, Cowboys, Chiefs, Giants & Chargers are there once.
Thats seven teams picking one QB, and seven teams picking 4 QBs. The 4QB teams have won five titles, the 1QB teams have won four. If you added the 3QB teams this becomes eitght titles to four.
So f*ck knows what any of this means - that picking more QB's in the draft means you win more Superbowls? That actually you just need to find the one GOAT pick? That this isn't really analysis and i'm wasting my Friday? The best way to win the QB lottery is actually to draft Bijan at #5?
You can't win the lottery if you don't play. However, I don't think Pete is exaggerating when he says we can win a Super Bowl with Geno (as long as he's cheap is the unsaid part of that statement). He and John know the odds drafting the next elite NFL passer, and I think they'll take more frequent swings at it than we're used to, but building a great team in spite of a QB instead of around one makes a lot of sense given what this history tells us.
Statistics don't predict outcomes when there are SO many variables involved. All of this review has an underlying "all things being equal" assumption built in. Every individual QB, or any person for that matter, is unique, with unique circumstances and exposure to coaching, competition, technology, etc. ad infinitum... this is why I love JSPC so much. They examine the individual, eschew trends and outside noise, and make their choices. After all, if you look at them in a particular way, don't statistics say that another 1983 QB class is due to hit?
2015 Hawt garbage, 2010 kinda gross, 2022 too early to say but maybe not far from 2010. So then I look at Young, Stroud, Richardson, Levis, Hooker - just doesn't feel like this class would be one those years. Theres a big fall off perhaps from BY/CJS to the others but thats in alignment with the other years where there was at least one or two who had some modicum of success in the league.
Feels to me that if Anderson is gone which dang near every mock has him going to AZ, that the Hawks hope Richardson is there. I was an absolute Stan for Carter for a long time- until his Pro Day debacle. The issue with racing and that- that of itself is forgivable. But the hot mess from his Pro Day is not. Then maybe you put the two together and that makes my spidey senses tingle a bit too much. I would rather have raw athletic ability of Richardson as a wild card than some potential character flaws of Carter at this point.
So if Richardson is there at 5, I am quite ok with taking him. I am not in favor of trading #5 even for a 2024 first because you may only get a mid or later first for it not knowing how that team may play out the season. They should take the next best athlete regardless at that point.
Ack! There are sure a lot of bad QBs drafted. A LOT!
My main takeaway is that if the first five picks in the 2023 draft are all QBs, the Seahawks aren’t worried about whether all five picks are hits. All that matters is that their guy becomes a top QB in the league. The other four simply don’t matter.
So all they need to think about is who they really like who is still on the board when they pick and whether they believe that he would still be on the board if they pick someone else or trade down.
Like the Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson picks showed, it’s not about who the press or other teams like. It’s about who PCJS likes and where they expect them to be available.
Just an excellent article.
This QB debate I have often. It also reminds me of the revolving door Head Coach debate about whether to fire a coach or not.
Also, if we drafted Richardson ... I would be mentally prepared for him never to see the field. If Pete lives up to his compete model, what if he never improves and beats out Lock/Geno? It sounds crazy ... but it was also "crazy" to start a too short 3rd round draft pick while paying a guy $20M to hold a clipboard. But that's Pete.
Thanks for a little dose of reality Joe!