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The top-5 QBs from the last 15 NFL Drafts
We need a reminder of "perspective" on the odds of becoming a good QB: Seaside Joe 1483
Today’s NFL Draft newsletter is going to be more of a scrolly than anything else. One of the big words I’ve always preached in the subtext of everything I write is “perspective” and I think the results here will speak for themselves.
This week, I watched former Seahawks receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh (yes, former Seahawks receiver otherwise I would not have learned how to spell his name in 2009) share his thoughts on the 2023 QB class with Colin Cowherd. As players and media guests tend to do, he was very complimentary of every prospect with only a few “red flags” mentioned throughout the segment.
This is what we keep hearing over and over again about Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis, right:
“But Josh Allen was inaccurate…”
“But Drew Brees was undersized…”
“But Patrick Mahomes sat for a year…”
“But Joe Burrow had elite receivers in college…”
You know which names you NEVER hear during NFL Draft season?
“But Baker Mayfield had attitude concerns…”
“But Sam Darnold wasn’t as good as a junior as he was as a sophomore…”
“But Carson Wentz went to a small school…”
Why is it that draft analysis is always making exceptions for the best case scenario? Why are the so-called experts always bringing up the same flavor-of-the-week comparisons instead of the worst scenario outcomes that could get a GM fired or a head coach out of a job…permanently?
Why is there always such a concerted effort to try and make fans FORGET that the majority of first round quarterbacks will be busts. Not might be, not could be…I’d say that at least 75% of first round QBs WILL ultimately be disappointments.
That doesn’t mean GMs shouldn’t take the risk—as we discussed in Thursday’s Seaside Joe (which is over 100 comments!) about Pete Carroll’s open adoration for the top prospects in this year’s class, I’m wide open for an exciting draft pick or draft trade!!!—it just means that I see no reason for the media to put kid gloves on when they talk about the quarterback prospects.
I see nothing wrong with making the statement, “I want the Seahawks to draft Anthony Richardson…but damn if it doesn’t terrify me because he couldn’t string together one game’s worth of plays (out of only 13 games) without at least a few moments that will get him eaten alive in the NFL.”
I do see something wrong with saying, “I want the Seahawks to draft Anthony Richardson…he just needs more time to develop.”
“I want the Seahawks to draft Will Levis…he just didn’t have a good supporting cast last year.”
Statements that at best show a lack of perspective and at their most nefarious, show a lack of honesty. Those guys—and Stroud and Young—have hardly even started to overcome the odds that one must defeat in order to become a quality long-term starter in the NFL.
This scrolly is meant to give perspective on how long those odds actually are even after you get drafted.
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The following scroll is super simple: I went back to 2008 and looked at the entire DRAFTED QB class, then made a simple top-5 ranking of those players. Do not get distracted by the “ranking” part because I know that people can get very emotional about that word, but that part to me is very inconsequential to what we’re doing today: You’ll see there’s no point to argue because most of the names are no good.
The point I’m trying to make—and yeah, I do have one this time—is that while we’re sitting here talking about four or five first round QBs, remember that most draft classes won’t even supply three legitimate starting QBs into the NFL. A good class has two. A GREAT class has three, but those are RARE.
A lot of classes will have 0-1. Including years with four or five first rounders.
The number next to the name in parantheses is the order they were drafted in AT their position, not the overall number. So (1)=(1st QB taken) and 4=(4th QB taken)
You tell me how likely it is that the fourth QB in this class will become a starter in the NFL…
2008
1-Matt Ryan (1)
2-Joe Flacco (2)
3-Chad Henne (4)
4-Matt Flynn (12)
5-Josh Johnson (8)
2009
1-Matthew Stafford (1)
2-Mark Sanchez (2)
3-Josh Freeman (3)
4-Curtis Painter (11)
5-Pat White (4)
2010
1-Sam Bradford (1)
2-Colt McCoy (4)
3-Tim Tebow (2)
4-John Skelton (6)
5-Jimmy Clausen (3)
2011
1-Cam Newton (1)
2-Andy Dalton (5)
3-Colin Kaepernick (6)
4-Blaine Gabbert (3)
5-Christian Ponder (4)
2012
1-Russell Wilson (6)
2-Kirk Cousins (8)
3-Ryan Tannehill (3)
4-Andrew Luck (1)
5-Nick Foles (7)
2013
1-Geno Smith (2) (WOW!!!)
2-Mike Glennon (3)
3-E.J. Manuel (1)
4-Matt Barkley (4)
5-Landy Jones (8)
2014
1-Derek Carr (4)
2-Jimmy Garoppolo (5)
3-Teddy Bridgewater (3)
4-Blake Bortles (1)
5-A.J. McCarron (9)
2015
1-Jameis Winston (1)
2-Marcus Mariota (2)
3-Trevor Siemian (7)
4-Brett Hundley (6)
5-Sean Mannion (4)
2016
1-Dak Prescott (8)
2-Jared Goff (1)
3-Carson Wentz (2)
4-Jacoby Brissett (5)
5-Jeff Driskel (14)
2017
1-Patrick Mahomes (2)
2-Deshaun Watson (3)
3-Mitchell Trubisky (1)
4-C.J. Beathard (6)
5-Nathan Peterman (8)
2018
1-Josh Allen (3)
2-Lamar Jackson (5)
3-Baker Mayfield (1)
4-Sam Darnold (2)
5-Mason Rudolph (6)
2019
1-Kyler Murray (1)
2-Daniel Jones (2)
3-Drew Lock (4)
4-Gardner Minshew (10)
5-Jarrett Stidham (7)
2020
1-Joe Burrow (1)
2-Justin Herbert (3)
3-Jalen Hurts (5)
4-Tua Tagovailoa (2)
5-Jordan Love (4)
2021
1-Trevor Lawrence (1)
2-Mac Jones (5)
3-Justin Fields (4)
4-Davis Mills (8)
5-Zach Wilson (2)
2022
1-Brock Purdy (9)
2-Kenny Pickett (1)
3-Desmond Ridder (2)
4-Bailey Zappe (5)
5-Sam Howell (6)
Good for Geno Smith, he really saved that 2013 QB class…10 years later.
That’s it, I’m going to “without further commentary” on this one because either the names speak for themselves OR you’ll leave some great comments below. Join the conversation on Thursday’s article and remember that Seaside Joe has a ridiculous amount of not only free content, but bonus content, so PLEASE join the Regular Joes or gift a subscription to a Seahawks fan who can’t afford it!
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The top-5 QBs from the last 15 NFL Drafts
For those of you wondering Rob Staton has finally "answered" the Levis vs Lock question:
"Drew Lock is, currently, a second round flop who has achieved nothing since entering the league."
Uhhhwhat? What kind of answer is that? That is what is called a non-answer (because there isn't a good one).
Even if you take that answer ... is Levis not a total flop? He couldn't win the starting job at Penn State and then had a decent season at Kentucky and then a terrible senior year. And don't give me the "SEC", pretty sure the defenses in the NFL are substantially better than the SEC.
Even the leader of the Levis fan club can't give a good answer.
I interpreted it to be for any class, at best a 10% chance 4 quality starters will come out of any one draft and close to zero that 4 franchise QB’s will be in any one draft
That’s the perspective Joe is putting on all the hype — for example if someone were to trade up with AZ, you could get 4 straight QB’s at 1/2/3/4. Will all 4 be worth the picks they were betrothed?
If they are, will be the first time in at least 15 yrs and this will be known as the greatest or near-greatest QB class ever.
Right up there with 1983 (Elway, Marino, Kelly and Ken O’Brien) and 2004 (Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Rivers, Matt Schaub).
That’s what teams would be expecting if this QB class went 1/2/3/4. Joe is just alerting that history would argue someone is likely to be disappointed.
Although there’s a first time for everything
And he himself acknowledges the potential benefit is worth the risk given positional value.
Just buyer beware. Someone at 1/2/3/4 will be wrong.