The top-5 QBs from the last 15 NFL Drafts

We need a reminder of "perspective" on the odds of becoming a good QB: Seaside Joe 1483

Today’s NFL Draft newsletter is going to be more of a scrolly than anything else. One of the big words I’ve always preached in the subtext of everything I write is “perspective” and I think the results here will speak for themselves.

This week, I watched former Seahawks receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh (yes, former Seahawks receiver otherwise I would not have learned how to spell his name in 2009) share his thoughts on the 2023 QB class with Colin Cowherd. As players and media guests tend to do, he was very complimentary of every prospect with only a few “red flags” mentioned throughout the segment.

This is what we keep hearing over and over again about Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis, right:

“But Josh Allen was inaccurate…”

“But Drew Brees was undersized…”

“But Patrick Mahomes sat for a year…”

“But Joe Burrow had elite receivers in college…”

You know which names you NEVER hear during NFL Draft season?

“But Baker Mayfield had attitude concerns…”

“But Sam Darnold wasn’t as good as a junior as he was as a sophomore…”

“But Carson Wentz went to a small school…”

Why is it that draft analysis is always making exceptions for the best case scenario? Why are the so-called experts always bringing up the same flavor-of-the-week comparisons instead of the worst scenario outcomes that could get a GM fired or a head coach out of a job…permanently?

Why is there always such a concerted effort to try and make fans FORGET that the majority of first round quarterbacks will be busts. Not might be, not could be…I’d say that at least 75% of first round QBs WILL ultimately be disappointments.

That doesn’t mean GMs shouldn’t take the risk—as we discussed in Thursday’s Seaside Joe (which is over 100 comments!) about Pete Carroll’s open adoration for the top prospects in this year’s class, I’m wide open for an exciting draft pick or draft trade!!!—it just means that I see no reason for the media to put kid gloves on when they talk about the quarterback prospects.

I see nothing wrong with making the statement, “I want the Seahawks to draft Anthony Richardson…but damn if it doesn’t terrify me because he couldn’t string together one game’s worth of plays (out of only 13 games) without at least a few moments that will get him eaten alive in the NFL.”

I do see something wrong with saying, “I want the Seahawks to draft Anthony Richardson…he just needs more time to develop.”

“I want the Seahawks to draft Will Levis…he just didn’t have a good supporting cast last year.”

Statements that at best show a lack of perspective and at their most nefarious, show a lack of honesty. Those guys—and Stroud and Young—have hardly even started to overcome the odds that one must defeat in order to become a quality long-term starter in the NFL.

This scrolly is meant to give perspective on how long those odds actually are even after you get drafted.

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The following scroll is super simple: I went back to 2008 and looked at the entire DRAFTED QB class, then made a simple top-5 ranking of those players. Do not get distracted by the “ranking” part because I know that people can get very emotional about that word, but that part to me is very inconsequential to what we’re doing today: You’ll see there’s no point to argue because most of the names are no good.

The point I’m trying to make—and yeah, I do have one this time—is that while we’re sitting here talking about four or five first round QBs, remember that most draft classes won’t even supply three legitimate starting QBs into the NFL. A good class has two. A GREAT class has three, but those are RARE.

A lot of classes will have 0-1. Including years with four or five first rounders.

The number next to the name in parantheses is the order they were drafted in AT their position, not the overall number. So (1)=(1st QB taken) and 4=(4th QB taken)

You tell me how likely it is that the fourth QB in this class will become a starter in the NFL…

2008

1-Matt Ryan (1)

2-Joe Flacco (2)

3-Chad Henne (4)

4-Matt Flynn (12)

5-Josh Johnson (8)

2009

1-Matthew Stafford (1)

2-Mark Sanchez (2)

3-Josh Freeman (3)

4-Curtis Painter (11)

5-Pat White (4)

2010

1-Sam Bradford (1)

2-Colt McCoy (4)

3-Tim Tebow (2)

4-John Skelton (6)

5-Jimmy Clausen (3)

2011

1-Cam Newton (1)

2-Andy Dalton (5)

3-Colin Kaepernick (6)

4-Blaine Gabbert (3)

5-Christian Ponder (4)

2012

1-Russell Wilson (6)

2-Kirk Cousins (8)

3-Ryan Tannehill (3)

4-Andrew Luck (1)

5-Nick Foles (7)

2013

1-Geno Smith (2) (WOW!!!)

2-Mike Glennon (3)

3-E.J. Manuel (1)

4-Matt Barkley (4)

5-Landy Jones (8)

2014

1-Derek Carr (4)

2-Jimmy Garoppolo (5)

3-Teddy Bridgewater (3)

4-Blake Bortles (1)

5-A.J. McCarron (9)

2015

1-Jameis Winston (1)

2-Marcus Mariota (2)

3-Trevor Siemian (7)

4-Brett Hundley (6)

5-Sean Mannion (4)

2016

1-Dak Prescott (8)

2-Jared Goff (1)

3-Carson Wentz (2)

4-Jacoby Brissett (5)

5-Jeff Driskel (14)

2017

1-Patrick Mahomes (2)

2-Deshaun Watson (3)

3-Mitchell Trubisky (1)

4-C.J. Beathard (6)

5-Nathan Peterman (8)

2018

1-Josh Allen (3)

2-Lamar Jackson (5)

3-Baker Mayfield (1)

4-Sam Darnold (2)

5-Mason Rudolph (6)

2019

1-Kyler Murray (1)

2-Daniel Jones (2)

3-Drew Lock (4)

4-Gardner Minshew (10)

5-Jarrett Stidham (7)

2020

1-Joe Burrow (1)

2-Justin Herbert (3)

3-Jalen Hurts (5)

4-Tua Tagovailoa (2)

5-Jordan Love (4)

2021

1-Trevor Lawrence (1)

2-Mac Jones (5)

3-Justin Fields (4)

4-Davis Mills (8)

5-Zach Wilson (2)

2022

1-Brock Purdy (9)

2-Kenny Pickett (1)

3-Desmond Ridder (2)

4-Bailey Zappe (5)

5-Sam Howell (6)

Good for Geno Smith, he really saved that 2013 QB class…10 years later.

That’s it, I’m going to “without further commentary” on this one because either the names speak for themselves OR you’ll leave some great comments below. Join the conversation on Thursday’s article and remember that Seaside Joe has a ridiculous amount of not only free content, but bonus content, so PLEASE join the Regular Joes or gift a subscription to a Seahawks fan who can’t afford it!

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Will Seahawks benefit from draft mistakes of Panthers and Texans?

5 potential surprising picks for Seattle at pick #5

Seahawks cap savings based on positions picked in 1st round

Will Seahawks FA defensive rebuild go better than 2001?

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