Shore Things: QB Advantage in AFC...Again???

AFC in position to draft the QBs again, how does this keep happening? Seaside Joe 1506

Should the Seattle Seahawks draft a quarterback this year simply as a hail mary attempt to shift the balance of power in the NFC back into their favor by 2025? Because if Pete Carroll and John Schneider miss this opportunity, it may not come back around again in time to stop the Carolina Panthers from being the only team in the conference that even tried.

It’s amazing to see not how quickly the AFC became the gold standard for quarterbacks, but that once again it seems that the NFC will sit back and watch more talent go to “the other side”. It wasn’t something that hit me until last week—we’ve known for a while that with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen that the AFC had an advantage—but what’s shocking is that with the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts picking in the top-four, and the Las Vegas Raiders or Tennessee Titans rumored to be moving up, it appears that unless all of the prospects bust out that the other conference is getting even more jammed than it already is.

Let’s review how this happened so quickly.

AFC West - Patrick Mahomes (2017 draft), Justin Herbert (2020 draft), Russell Wilson (2022 trade), Jimmy Garoppolo (2023 FA)

The AFC West has two stars at the position, a former star (with an upgrade at coach this year), and a mediocre-but-steady option when healthy in Jimmy G. I buy that Las Vegas wants to draft a quarterback, if they get the chance. It’s been 16 years since JaMarcus Russell. The last time the Raiders picked a first round QB prior to JaMarcus was Todd Marinovich in 1991.

AFC South - Trevor Lawrence (2021 draft), Ryan Tannehill (2019 trade), Davis Mills (2021 draft), Gardner Minshew (2023 FA)

The two bad quarterbacks on this list could be replaced as soon as April 27th. There’s no guarantee that the replacements will be upgrades, but Houston and Indianapolis will have new starters one way or another. If the Texans or Colts decide not to draft a quarterback, don’t forget that the trade market is bubbling below the surface with names like Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Lamar Jackson.

AFC North - Joe Burrow (2020 draft), Lamar Jackson (2018 draft), Deshaun Watson (2022 trade), Kenny Pickett (2022 draft)

If Lamar doesn’t leave, this could be the most talented QB division, depending how situations in Cleveland and Pittsburgh develop. Interestingly, the Ravens might draft a quarterback and there is speculation that even if they trade Lamar that he could stay in the AFC by going to the Colts or Patriots.

AFC East - Josh Allen (2018 draft), Aaron Rodgers? (2023 trade), Tua Tagovailoa (2020 draft), Mac Jones (2021 draft)

Look at the big trades recently: Wilson from NFC to AFC. Rodgers from NFC to AFC. Watson from AFC to AFC. What has the NFC done? Derek Carr.

How can Seahawks respond?

The 2023 NFL Draft will feature the number one quarterback going to the NFC because the Panthers jumped over seven teams to go from nine to one. If Bryce Young pans out (or I guess, someone else), then Carolina will have a significant advantage in the conference, let alone the division: His current competition will be Desmond Ridder, Baker Mayfield, and Carr.

That is depending on if the Falcons, Bucs, or Saints do something, but Tampa and New Orleans are pretty far out.

The NFC North is now dominated by Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff, with Justin Fields and Jordan Love yet to prove themselves as passers.

The NFC East is Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones, and Sam Howell.

The situation in the NFC West is such that Geno Smith has become the best quarterback in the divsion, with Stafford, Kyler Murray, and Brock Purdy all on the mend in some form or fashion; Murray will miss half of the season, Purdy is questionable for Week 1, Lance is just “questionable”, and Stafford’s rumored to be on his last elbow.

I mean, Drew Lock could probably start for the other three teams in the NFC West.

But just imagine if the 2023 NFL Draft falls with QB2, QB3, and QB4 going to the Texans, Colts, and Raiders. It’s not only possible, it’s the betting favorite.

We know how hard it is for any quarterback prospect to succeed in the NFL, but that’s what we said about Mahomes, Herbert, Watson, and Lamar. The odds are more certain to go up that there’s going to be another premium QB in the AFC than the NFC; If just one of C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, or Anthony Richardson blows up for a team in the AFC, that’s one more “bad guy” in the gauntlet of those playoffs.

Meanwhile, what are the NFC playoffs going to look like in two years? Bryce Young, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Dimes Jones?

It makes the prospect of just throwing a dart at a quarterback that much more intriguing.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Seahawks should make a panicked decision and choose a quarterback who they really don’t like over Jalen Carter, Devon Witherspoon, or a prospect who they really do like. Look at Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson…teams have won Super Bowls with quarterbacks who they didn’t use first round picks on in the draft.

But at some point NFC teams will take notice of the fact that all the quarterback talent seems to be going that-a way instead of this-a way. It seems like the Panthers noticed and pounced before anyone else could think about the consequences of waiting.

If the Seahawks draft Richardson or Levis, it could be a mistake. I’m not comfortable with either of those prospects. When I say, “That’s what the teams said when they passed on Mahomes and Josh Allen,” it’s not me trying to justify picking Richardson or Levis.

It’s just…true.

Share your thoughts on the NFC QB race and what you’ll think if the Seahawks throw their draft pick at a quarterback this year. Leave a comment and vote in Saturday’s Seahawks Fan Survey if you haven’t already. Results to come! Become a subscriber to not miss any episodes of Seaside Joe.

This post is a “Shore Things” where I just try to quickly go through some smaller thoughts that I have or videos I want to share, so I’ll get to those now and hopefully not take up too much of your time.

New Mock Draft with 2 different scenarios posted on Sunday morning for bonus subscribers. It’s worth every penny! I will post more mocks before the big day.

Jalen Carter is “the best non-QB I’ve ever scouted”

Setting aside the off-field concerns, I can’t remember any prospect in the last three or four years who had as much of a consensus “YES” on his name than Jalen Carter. The confounding thing about “Carter doesn’t like to practice” is that he’s CLEARLY coachable because he’s not just winning by being a freak of nature. Carter has a blend of power and technique that makes him unblockable to a degree that analysts just don’t see very often from any prospect, especially an interior defensive lineman. But by all accounts, Carter could play 5-technique and be just as dominant.

The fact that Carter is an elite defensive tackle prospect who comes with a “character concerns” label reminds me of Chopped. Yes, the cooking competition show. I’ll explain.

Every single time on Chopped, Top Chef, Masterchef, Cutthroat Kitchen, Next Level Chef, you name it, when a chef forgets a required ingredient, what do the judges say? “Oh my God, this is the BEST dish I’ve EVER had!!! If you had not left the capers off, you would have DEFINITELY won this round. Unfortunately though, you have been Chopped.”

For TV drama, it can never just be, “Oh you forgot the capers AND this dish sucks anyway.” No, it has to be that the dish was fantastic, otherwise there would be no drama. It feels like Carter’s off-field issues are the missing ingredient and we just can’t have a perfect prospect.

Maybe that will be to Seattle’s benefit.

In his analysis of Carter last week, YouTuber Alex Rollins referred to him as “the best non-QB I’ve ever scouted” and noted that while great prospects tend to have three or four great plays per game, Carter has a tendency to string together three or four great plays…in a row.

Even Cam Heyward has high praise for Carter.

Jeff Bezos, please be a good Seattle Seahawks owner

Bezos won’t be owning the Washington team, so he continues to wait for his opportunity. It’s not a matter of “if” Bezos will buy the Seahawks, it’s only “if he wants to”. Nobody will outbid Bezos if he decides to buy the Seahawks and nobody in the NFL will stand in his way. The stars are aligning for Bezos to hold the most important position in any NFL organization: Using money to become the sole controlling power of a football team regardless of whether that person is qualified to do so or not.

Paul Allen was a good owner because he didn’t want to have anything to do with the football decisions. Hopefully, that’s Bezos. If he wants the job.

TV show recommendation: Jury Duty on Freevee

Awesome.

Random Prospect: TE Dalton Kincaid

I wrote about Kincaid as maybe a surprise pick for the Eagles at #10, but what if he makes it to the Seahawks at #20? Kincaid could be an elite pass catcher and route runner at tight end, but he’s a poor blocker. It wouldn’t be the first time that Pete Carroll used a first round pick on a tight end like that…

There are so many ways for Seattle to go with their other first round pick. If they can get a team to trade up, I think they would do that unless someone drops who are they shocked is still on the board.

WR Jonathan Mingo: Overrated?

Who knows which prospects are overrated, underrated, or properly rated at this point…any prospect who goes after the first round and becomes a star is being “underrated” right? Well, everyone’s looking for “that guy” at WR right now because the 2023 class is so divisive and I know that Ole Miss’s Mingo is a common one to throw around because of his size and speed combination.

After watching this video though, I’m skeptical.

This is just one analysis of a game, but not what you’re expecting out of someone who is “being slept on”. Usually the people being slept on aren’t just size/speed athletes, but players who do everything right but maybe don’t have the size/speed of guys like Mingo.

Jim Nagy takeaways

I heard Senior Bowl director Nagy make these notes on the Fantasy Points podcast: TE Will Mallory is better than Michael Mayer, Tyjae Spears is the third-best back in the class, Stanford’s Michael Wilson is a mature person who will be well-liked and respected at the next level, “Pete Carroll didn’t budge on character in the 2022 draft and it paid off”, he loves brothers Chase Brown and Sydney Brown, he thinks receiver Tank Dell is really good.

NFL Network’s James Palmer on Jalen Carter’s pro day:

“I talked to 4 coaches on the field that day and they didn’t think it was nearly as bad as they say. They worked him hard on purpose. He was the first guy back in line for the drill even though he was getting his ass kicked.”

As told to Steve Smith on the Cut To It podcast.