Seahawks Fan Survey: Pre-Draft
It's your chance to speak your mind on Jalen Carter, Anthony Richardson, and trade scenarios: Seaside Joe 1505
Seattle Seahawks fans only have to wait 12 more days to find out what Pete Carroll and John Schneider do with their two first rounds picks, fifth and 20th overall. And 13 days until using their three day two picks, officially finalizing the Russell Wilson trade…unless they trade for future picks.
Which they very well could.
Today is the 1,505th day in a row of the Seaside Joe newsletter for Seahawks fans, let’s jump right into it this time. I have five poll questions for you about five key topics on the 2023 NFL Draft and I’ll post five results when the surveys close in three days. Don’t be afraid to give your thoughts because as I always say with polls: There is no wrong answer! I even added “I don’t know” options for some questions to keep you enticed, plus relevant Seaside Joe articles for the topics at hand.
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Before the combine, Seahawks fans were not even allowed to dream of Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter because he was expected to be off the board before Seattle’s choice at #5. Since then, Carter is rarely projected to go in the first four picks because of reported character concerns and off-field issues. The Seahawks have met with Carter and 99% of people would be stunned if that was because Seattle expects him to be available at #20.
None of us know exactly what Jalen Carter is like in person or as a teammate or as an employee, but know you have your right to feel however you want to feel about the possibility that he could become a member of the Seahawks in two weeks. This question is not about if you think Seattle will pick Carter, it’s about how you’d feel—you—if the Seahawks do pick Jalen Carter. Too risky?
If Carter is an excellent player who could have a short career because of character concerns, then Richardson is a bad player who could have a stellar career because of elite athleticism and arm strength. Or Carter could be a bad character who has a Hall of Fame career because of coaching and management, and Richardson is a phenomenal athlete who never starts an NFL game because he’s the dream of defensive coordinators and not offensive coordinators.
These are the risks of the NFL Draft!
Richardson started 13 games in college and none of them were great start to finish. But he’s got a chance to be too good of an athlete to fail and there is a timeline in which Anthony Richardson is the best player in the league. Seattle has a rare opportunity to get immediate help with a high floor and a high ceiling for a defensive prospect, would you be upset if they took a chance on a quarterback project instead?
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John and Pete
Now I know this is one you can answer.
I have a feeling that this draft will return the most surprises and shocks of any class in the 14-year history of the Pete Carroll and John Schneider regime. Not just because they have the most draft capital since 1977. It seems like they are throwing us some change-ups lately and…it’s probably about time.
I’ve long been the writer who has had to say “No, I don’t expect that, sorry” when it comes to Pete investing in the interior of the offensive line. As I just said, that may change this year and the Seahawks had an interesting meeting with one of the top center prospects in the draft this week.
I have never mocked a center or guard to the Seahawks in the top-50. Could that change? Maybe. How would that make you feel, especially given the current state of the roster and opportunities to land someone at a different position with Seattle’s second pick of the first round?
I know the Seahawks could trade down first, but let’s pretend that they didn’t get any offers and had to make the pick at #20.
Finally, I am not ruling out that the Seahawks could trade down from #5 and it all depends on how the top-four of the draft falls, which I think will have at least one shocking surprise to fans.
Pete and John didn’t trade down in 2010 or 2022, the other two times that they held a top-10 pick. They did trade down in 2012, from 12 to 15. They didn’t trade down in 2010, when they had the Earl Thomas pick at 14.
But with this particular draft class and the opportunity to maybe change out some 2023 capital for 2024 capital, I could see it if there’s a team willing to go all-in on a quarterback prospect out of desperation. Linked above are five “most-likely” trade down partners, but I came up with a sixth one to really make it difficult for you to decide. I hope, at least.
The Saints signed Derek Carr, but New Orleans loves to be aggressive and maybe they’d be the team that thinks they can get the most out of Anthony Richardson with a three-year plan. I also wanted to pick a trade spot in the draft that would really make you question if you were okay with the Seahawks falling that far: What if New Orleans offered pick 29 (from the Broncos in the Sean Payton deal), pick 40 in the second round, their 2024 first round pick, and Alvin Kamara? Seattle would only have to pay Kamara $1 million this year, so he’d easily fit under the cap.
The issues: Kamara could be facing a six-game suspension for involvement in a battery case (assaulting a man in Las Vegas, allegedly), he’ll turn 28 in the summer, and he has a $10 million base salary in 2024, then an inflated $22.4 million salary in 2025 that he will never EVER get. The flip side is that the Seahawks could add an elite complementary back to Ken Walker III that joins the team in October. Kamara isn’t the same player he once was, but I could see him as equal to Christian McCaffrey, who was traded for second, third, and fourth round picks.
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Hard no on the trade with the Saints. Like that we get a high R2 and a 2024 R1, don't like that we move back TWENTY-FOUR spots in Round 1, and absolutely HATE the inclusion of Alvin Kamara. Aside from the off-field stuff (which is bad enough) and the strong possibility of him facing a 6-game suspension, he'd really only be a 1-year rental. Cap hit in 2023 (via trade) = $1.08M (yay!). Cap hit in 2024 (via trade) = $11.8M ($10.2M base + $1M roster bonus + $500k in per-game roster bonuses + $100k workout bonus). No thanks. 2025 cap hit = $25M !!!!!!! ($22.4M base + $2M roster bonus + the same per-game and workout bonuses as 2024). NO, NO, NO, NO, NO !!!!!!
Even if the trade was a good idea (which it's not), how would the Saints even make it work?
Right now, per OTC, the Saints have $14,659,642 in available cap space. That's before they sign their draft picks, field a practice squad, etc. Kamara's cap hit in 2023 is slated to be $8.157M, but . . . there's $24.292M in dead money on it that would hit the cap the second the Saints made that trade (since the draft is before June 1st and the Saints couldn't push any of the dead money to 2024). That means the Saints would instantly LOSE $16.135M in cap space and $16.135M is more than they currently have.
On top of that, swapping #29 + #40 for #5 would INCREASE the cost of signing their 2023 draft class by $2,186,239 which means the Saints would be even further underwater.
The Sure Thing...
Well, it is pretty clear that we cannot draft Troy Palamalu. He is not available, nor is Reggie White or Bobby Wagner (because we already have Wags!). What I am looking for early on from this draft are Career 'Gold Jacket worthy' players.
Too many marginal QBs have come through the turnstiles WAY too soon to be in their draft position. Thus I am more focused on what I do not want in this year's draft. Reaching for marginal talent is OK late in the first round or later on, but in No way am I cool with being the team that passed on Generational talents.
Hoping for a QB who had a marginal college career to be worthy of a top-5 pick just seems so - well I do not want to come off as an elitist, but it screams not understanding the game. IF a career difference-maker at QB can be had later on, why give up the chance for an Game-wrecking defender?
The Hawks must have 2 interior D-line positions filled. Since we already have QB-1 and QB2, drafting a 'down the road' QB can be done down the road some...maybe even in this very draft - but Not at the top. Nope.
Not unless PC/JS are looking John Cusack-style at a 'Sure Thing'. For that matter, let this 80's movie be the lesson here - maybe the Seahawks sure thing is the less obvious choice.