NFL Draft sleepers from Combine: Could this QB be the next Sam Howell?
Devin Leary headlines my list of potential offensive standouts at combine that didn't get enough attention: 3/4/2024
It is truly an act of bravery to have conversations about NFL players as if the draft never happened, for it is the context of where someone “ranks” as a prospect that will essentially the define their entire careers.
Everybody knows that Tom Brady was a sixth round pick and JaMarcus Russell was the first overall pick. Most people were far more skeptical of Russell Wilson’s rookie success than Andrew Luck or RGIII because the former was a third round pick. If Brock Purdy had been a top-10 pick and had exactly the same career play-for-play until now, his narrative would center on if he’s the greatest young QB of all-time instead of whether or not the 49ers should still consider signing Kirk Cousins in free agency.
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I would not downplay the importance of being a great football player in high school, then college, then testing as an elite athlete at the combine, and then becoming a first round pick because those things matter. But everything has context and context is everything.
You may have read today’s headline about “the next Sam Howell” and wondered why any writer would care to discover a quarterback like him, but let’s address his context and ask “Why wouldn’t you want the Seahawks to pick a quarterback like Sam Howell?”
A) Sam Howell was a fifth round pick in the 2022 draft and so far he has outplayed and outshined the five quarterbacks selected ahead of him: Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corral, and Bailey Zappe
B) At 21, Howell was the youngest quarterback in the 2022 draft class
C) Howell started all 17 games last season and led the NFL with 612 pass attempts, proving he wasn’t afraid of the challenge or an offensive line that allowed him to get sacked a league-high 65 times
D) With 500+ pass attempts and a completion% over 60, Howell has as many career seasons with those stats as Cam Newton, Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Mac Jones, Jordan Love, and Geno Smith. It’s an easy argument to say that Howell is “No Cam Newton”, clearly they have different styles, but is he really that much different than Mayfield or Geno? And those are just the QBs who had one such season, so it doesn’t include Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Lamar Jackson, or the many first round busts in the past decade+ who have zero.
E) He also rushed for 263 yards and five touchdowns, he only fumbled four times
I know that up until now this article has merely been a random defense of Washington’s soon-to-be-replaced quarterback and a player who led the NFL with 21 interceptions, but CONTEXT: If you can get a quarterback like Howell in the fifth round every year, you take that quarterback EVERY YEAR.
Prior to the 2022 draft, while others were debating Willis and Ridder, I endorsed only one quarterback for the Seahawks, that being Sam Howell. And about two weeks ago, as others ponder a trade for Fields, I wrote that I’d much rather take a swing at a cheaper, younger, better passer like Howell who could cost less to acquire. Because he’s worse? No. Because of context.
As hard as it is to believe right now, I don’t have a strong affinity for Howell or necessarily think he has a future as a starter, but his case for being the first or second quarterback picked two years ago is solid and if the NFL had gotten that right would we be so certain that Washington should draft his replacement next month?
But maybe the Seahawks don’t need to trade for Howell to get Howell. Instead, they could seek out the next version of a day three quarterback like him, someone who is cheap, under contract, would only cost a fifth or sixth round pick, and is buried beneath draft context that might not be entirely fair.
Someone like Devin Leary.
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Devin Leary, Kentucky/NC State
When I became a hardcore Grayson McCall supporter in 2021, one of my other favorite finds that year was Devin Leary. He hadn’t played much in his first two years at NC State (which was once a pre-transfer home to a notable sleeper QB in the 2012 draft that Seahawks fans are well aware of) but came alive in his third season with 35 touchdowns and only five interceptions.
And that’s all well and good, but stats are not really how I judge quarterback prospects. My system is far more rudimentary: I watch them and I decide how fond I am of their game: arm strength, accuracy, decision-making, mobility, pocket presence, awareness. Even that sounds more intricate than it really is, I’m no scout, I’m just going off of a feel and I’m happy enough with my track record so far to stick with it.
He just looks like he can play, and to me most college quarterbacks—even ones with great stats—do not.
An example of “do not” from Howell’s 2022 class would be Willis, a quarterback with great arm strength and mobility but clearly showed game after game that he still didn’t have a fundamental grasp on playing the position despite having spent five years on the college level. The fact that so many draft analysts with “credibility” were touting him as a first round pick disturbed me then, now, and every time they do it with another prospect…of which there are too many.
Leary is not a first round prospect. I DO NOT think Leary is worth a first round pick. He is not being talked about as a day two prospect either. Right now he’s being projected as a 7th rounder at NFL Mock Draft Database, or an undrafted free agent, so for most he’s not even as good of a prospect as Howell.
Good. He’ll be extremely cheap then.
But it’s only March 4th and Leary’s combine performance in the throwing session could change that perception and push the transfer QB to a team in the middle of day three. Though the top three names didn’t participate, Leary was more impressive over the weekend than quarterbacks getting first round buzz like J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix, and Bo Nix, according to some.
BNB Football’s Brady Balhorn, who has been tracking prospects for the last 10 years, didn’t mince words that Leary was better in drills than Penix and Nix:
The narratives I saw online were far from accurate of what actually went on during drills. The only quarterback who I thought had a really strong day was Devin Leary. He barely ever missed, with a ton a perfect throws that looked like he had worked with the receivers all year.
Michael Penix was solid, but not nearly as good as the internet seemed to think. He was accurate on about two-thirds of his throws, with good zip behind the ball consistently.
Balhorn had Penix second, but noted a stark difference between 1 and 2, while Nix was third and McCarthy didn’t place. This is only ONE data point in a much more involved process than simply throwing at the NFL Combine, there is no denying that Leary had the last five years to raise his draft stock and everything falls in place for a reason. I just ask everyone to keep the CONTEXT in mind:
What if Seattle is left searching for a late round QB?
If the Seahawks don’t draft a quarterback in the first round, if they don’t have the second-tier options when they’re next on the clock in the third round, then all of a sudden a potential sleeper on day three becomes far more attractive because as we’ve seen with Purdy and Howell, it can be extremely difficult to parse out the qualities that make for a potential starter in the draft.
Devin Leary is experienced
After his breakout year at NC State in 2021, Leary returned as a senior but had his season cut short with a torn pec. He transferred to Kentucky to replace Will Levis and in some ways he outplayed his predecessor, an early second round pick in 2023. (Somewhat ironically, if you’ve been following Seaside Joe for the last three years, McCall has since transferred to NC State.)
Leary has thrown 1,315 pass attempts and thrown 87 touchdowns with 28 picks. Purdy had 1,467 college attempts and threw 81 touchdowns with 33 picks. These are just counting stats, nothing more, but more teams will value experience with regards to quarterbacks because of examples like Purdy, especially on day three.
Physique won’t scare teams away
The first round of the draft is heavily based in unique physical traits as coaches are confident they can teach players how to do most things, but they’ll never teach them how to be bigger or faster. Anthony Richardson and Trey Lance were not experienced, didn’t really have much positive tape, yet were both top-4 picks.
Purdy was 6’1, 212 lbs, 29” arms, 9.25” hands and was the last pick of the seventh round. Sam Howell was 6’1, 218, 30.75” arms, 9.2” hands at the combine. Leary is listed at 6’1, 215 lbs, 31” arms, 9.5” hands.
And don’t worry too much about velocity, there’s been no proven correlation between velocity at the combine and NFL success, although Leary’s was quite good. Touch and accuracy matter way more than velocity.
BNB wasn’t the lone voice impressed by Leary
PFN was impressed by his “accuracy and touch” at the throwing session. On3 noted a “positive performance” as well, with quotes from Leary saying he wish he had done better at Kentucky, although again he wasn’t terrible: 25 TD, 12 INT. Rob Staton of SeahawksDraftBlog kept saying over and over again that Levis was a “stellar prospect” in part because he played in Kentucky’s “pro style offense” for Liam Coen in 2021, the same OC that Leary had in 2023. (Coen spent 2022 with the Rams and he’s now the OC of the Bucs.)
Mike Farrell wrote that Leary’s “footwork and mechanics were also shockingly good” in addition to his “legit” arm. The Draft Network called Leary “the cleanest, most efficient QB throughout on-field throwing drills…earned praise for clean lower and upper body mechanices…threw with terrific touch.”
Where does this leave Seahawks, Leary odds?
A couple of years ago, I had Leary as one of my top-5 NFL QB prospects in the entire country (for the 2023 draft class, not overall) and then he had his injury/downfall/transfer situation but that could still work to Seattle’s benefit if he’s left as a 5th-7th round pick. The list of names I was pondering in 2022 also included plenty of others who won’t be drafted like Phil Jurkovec, Tanner Mordecai, Brennan Armstrong, Kedon Slovis, and Taulia Tagovailoa.
We talk about a fifth round QB prospect as if he’s “terrible”, and yes most of them will be relatively bad compared to starting NFL QBs because few of them make it, but Devin Leary had to emerge from a group of at least 200+ power five QBs just to be in this position now. It says a lot to me that he’s not washed out, that he’s invited to the combine, and especially now that he might have had the best throwing session for all those who participated.
That’s the type of context I’m looking for in Seattle’s next QB draft pick.
Other Less Heralded NFL Draft Prospects
Now I’ll go over some other names at other OFFENSIVE positions who may have had a good combine but didn’t necessarily “stand out” unless you looked deep enough. To continue reading, join the Regular Joes premium club for as little as $5 per month or $55 for an entire year. You will get access to bonus articles, archives, and the comments section. Super Joes is if you want to support a little more.
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