Re-visiting Free Agency Grades/Winners and Losers from 2021-2023

Why the Seahawks staying out of the Guard market was a good idea: Seaside Joe 1843

The narrative of the Seattle Seahawks 2024 free agency seems to be—and I could be wrong about this, maybe it’s only my point of view of “the Internet that is presented to me and only me”—that the team is suffering from a lack of activity. If that is the belief some fans hold, I strongly disagree.

As opposed to fairly inactive free agency periods of the past, specifically the first week, the Seahawks appear to be more involved without Pete Carroll than they were with Pete Carroll: John Schneider has already added SEVEN new players to Seattle’s roster, including a minimum of three defensive starters.

In the first week of free agency, the Seahawks added starters at linebacker (Jerome Baker, Tyrel Dodson) and safety (Rayshawn Jenkins) in addition to paying Leonard Williams a $21 million per year salary to remain on Seattle’s defensive line. Williams was essentially just a “premature” first wave free agent signing.

Offensively, the Seahawks traded for a QB (Sam Howell), and signed three trenches players in OL George Fant, iOL Nick Harris, and blocking tight end Pharoah Brown. If they’re not spending “gobs” of cash, they’re at least spending a couple of globs, if nothing else.

And I actually think that Seattle’s kind of doing a semi-push for 2024 because there will be a ton of changes next offseason if the Seahawks decide that they aren’t close to a Super Bowl with their current roster: Contract terms would allow the Seahawks to save $25 million on Geno Smith, $22 million on DK Metcalf, $17 million on Tyler Lockett, $14 million on Uchenna Nwosu, $9 million on Noah Fant, and $16.5 million on Dre’Mont Jones if they need to save cap space.

I guarantee at least a couple of those contracts will be terminated or moved in a year, as the Seahawks are going to be right up against the 2025 cap without changes.

So while others say that Seattle’s GM John Schneider is “kind of not doing anything”, the evidence tells me that he just has a higher opinion of the Seahawks roster than the popular mainstream narrative does. It wouldn’t be the first time that the Seattle Seahawks proved that popular narratives are often wrong, or the first time that we registered those miscalculations and then…IMMEDIATELY FORGET THAT’S WHAT WE DID when the next year comes around.

Luckily, the Internet has receipts.

The main story for Seattle’s free agency is that the Seahawks didn’t do anything at guard yet and that’s basically true. As I wrote on Sunday in addressing Seattle’s most important remaining need, Schneider certainly hasn’t shown his hand when it comes to the interior of Ryan Grubb’s offensive line. That doesn’t mean that Schneider isn’t holding any cards though.

Signing Fant and Harris gives the Seahawks seven offensive linemen on the roster, which is at least two or three short of a 53-man roster and only half of what you might want for training camp and OTAs. We should expect Seattle to add at least six or seven more offensive linemen between now and August, which includes second-year ERFAs McClendon Curtis and Raiqwon O’Neal.

On top of those nine, the Seahawks could draft one to two offensive linemen, sign two or three as undrafted free agents, and continue to scour bargain free agency. Bargain doesn’t just mean “cheap” though…it means bargain. As noted in the past, the Rams obtained Kevin Dotson for a day three pick swap and now he’s touted as one of the best guards in football less than a year later.

If Damien Lewis was a “bad loss” for Seattle, then what was he for four years as a third round pick? Abe Lucas was a third round pick. Of all of the Seahawks offensive linemen in the recent past who were considered “good”, it seems the value additions (J.R. Sweezy, for example) often out-paced the likes of free agent signees Robert Gallery and Luke Joeckel.

Coincidentally, as I had already written the reviews of past free agency grades before I saw his post, Bob Condotta tweeted out that PFF has given the Seahawks a “B-” for the first week of free agency.

Okay, sure, that’s their right to have a business and to create content that would be shared by team reporters and NFL fans at times like this. What PFF’s grade does not do is prove anything. It doesn’t mean anything. It doesn’t matter what PFF writers think—or think they think—about how any NFL team does in free agency or trades or the draft.

They, and all others like them, will be wrong more often than they are right.

Should the Seahawks have “done more” in free agency to upgrade the offensive line? I’m not sold that the Seahawks did NOT upgrade the offensive line: Lewis got overpaid by the Panthers, as all guards did last week, and Seattle’s ticking boxes by signing versatile players who didn’t cost as much. Fant could play right or left tackle, he has some experience at guard, and the Seahawks could toy with the notion that Lucas should move inside. Harris has experience with OL coach Scott Huff and could play center or guard.

And I have no reason to believe that Seattle is done adding to their offensive line (they’re obviously not done, this is indisputible) or that they missed out on “the best guards” because they didn’t pay $17 million for Jonah Jackson or $20 million for Robert Hunt.

Let’s review how accurate NFL free agency grades and Winners and Losers columns have been from the previous three offseasons.

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2023

SB Nation: Winners include Panthers, Jets, Bears, and 49ers. Losers include Chiefs, Packers, and Chargers. So a “winner” had the worst record in the NFL and a “loser” won the Super Bowl.

Gregg Rosenthal said: The Giants helped Daniel Jones enough to live up to his contract and that “Eagles haters” must be mad. Rosenthal tried to stay relatively neutral though without making any firm statements in the fear that one day an article like this one would come around.

CBS gave props to: The Commanders, Broncos, Bears, and Eagles. A team that fire its head coach, two teams that parted ways with their franchise QB, and the most disappointing team in the NFC.

Yahoo! Sports felt that: Javon Hargrave was a great signing for the 49ers, Derek Carr would tip the balance of power in the NFC South to the Saints, and the Falcons were dumb for not trying to sign/trade for Lamar Jackson.

Recent articles call Hargrave one of the worst moves of the 2023 offseason. The 49ers gave $40 million guaranteed to a defensive tackle who might be marginally better than Jarran Reed (if at all), who the Seahawks signed to a two-year, $9 million deal. Is there a GM in the NFL today who thinks $21 million/year for Hargrave is a better deal than $4.5/year for Reed?

And the Saints could have just “sat this one out” and tried to get back to even with the salary cap, but instead they’re paying Carr for at least another year. If the Saints cut Carr next year, they’ll be left with a $40 million dead cap hit. Aren’t they an 8-9 team with or without Derek Carr?

2022

NFL.com’s Marc Sessler says: The Broncos could hoist a Lombardi again now that they have Russell Wilson and Ravens signing of Marcus Williams was the best move of free agency. Sessler’s take on Williams could have been on the nose, but he has missed 13 games in two seasons so it is tough to really evaluate. I wonder if Baltimore doesn’t part ways with him in 2025 because we’ve seen what the NFL thinks of high-paid safeties now.

I don’t think “everyone” was wrong about Wilson, some of us couldn’t picture the move getting Denver to the Super Bowl, at least not right away. But to be fair, the situation dissolved and imploded much faster and louder than anyone expected.

CBS Grades: Broncos A, Chargers A, Rams A-, Jets A-, Bucs A, Titans A-, Raiders B+ Seahawks C, Lions C+, Vikings C+, Packers D+, 49ers C-

The Rams collapsed to 5-12 after winning the Super Bowl, the Vikings went 13-4, the Lions and Packers were setting themselves up for the future, the Seahawks got a much worse grade than the Broncos and then did much better than they did after trading Wilson. I’m selectively choosing grades and ignore others becase more than anything I just want to emphasize how pointless it is to grade free agency without the benefit of multiple seasons to evaluate the moves with hindsight.

2021

PFF notes: The Browns are “winners” and safety John Johnson “may be the best single signing any team has made”; Broncos did “Excellent”, especially by making Justin Simmons the highest-paid safety in the NFL; Washington also had an “Excellent” free agency period as the signing of Curtis Samuel would make Football Team a difficult spread offense to defense.

Johnson was released two years into his contract and didn’t even sign with any team in 2023 until the Rams brought him back just before the season. Cleveland’s “excellent” free agency resulted in 8-9 and an owner so desperate he traded three first round picks for Deshaun Watson’s $230 million contract. Simmons was released because of that contract and so far hasn’t signed with a new team. Washington’s offense was boring and bad—as it always is—and Samuel and corner William Jackson (for $40 million) were both free agency busts.

Marc Sessler wonders: What would have happened if the Bears traded for Russell Wilson?

Kind of off-topic, kind of not, but Sessler brings up that Chicago reportedly tried to trade three firsts, a third, and two players (allegedly including Khalil Mack) to the Seahawks for Russ. If true, Seattle would have had the 20th pick in the 2021 draft (and $39 million in dead money), an extra third (83rd overall), and it’s anyone’s guess how many games Chicago would have won that season. They ended up trading from 20 to 11 for Justin Fields, sending the seventh overall pick in the 2022 draft to the Giants, which they used on OT Evan Neal.

Instead, Seattle waited a year and got what they got from the Broncos, which I don’t think leaves them any regrets like the Panthers have for turning down two first rounders to trade Brian Burns, only to settle for a 2 and a 5 from the Giants.

What would the Seahawks have looked like in 2021 without Wilson? Would they have turned the team over to Geno Smith a year sooner? Probably not, as Geno’s three-game stint in 2021 is what convinced Pete Carroll he could handle the job.

We’ll never know, but did the Bears “screw up their whole offseason” by not trading for Russ? Probably not. If anything, they screwed up to give up two firsts for Fields, a move that was widely praised by the mainstream at the time and was never mentioned again.

Free agency lessons

The “worst moves” of free agency will ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS come from the players who are paid the most. They have to because that’s where all the risk is for teams.

Some of the “best moves” can also come from the top, but many of them will come from the middle and bottom-tiered contracts. Because the best moves are not just based on how good the player is under the deal, but how valuable he is: Jarran Reed was probably a more “valuable” addition than Dre’Mont Jones.

This year, we’re seeing people praise the Panthers for upgrading their guard positions by paying $20 million AAV to Robert Hunt and $13.25 million AAV to Damien Lewis, while the feeling in Seattle is one of panic at worst and uncertainty at best for not paying anyone. However, look at the highest-paid OL contracts of 2023 free agency: The Chiefs paid $20 million AAV to Jawaan Taylor, the Broncos paid $17.5 million for Mike McGlinchey, and the Bengals paid $16 million for Orlando Brown.

At most, these teams paid for competence. A Broncos blog called McGlinchey “the biggest issue up front” until a late season resurgence. Taylor became a meme for his frequency of false starts/non-called false starts. These tackles survive cut days in 2024, but I won’t be surprised if any or all three of them are available in 2025.

The same could well be said about 2024’s overpaid free agent guards in the near future. Denver also gave guard Ben Powers $13 million per year, similar contract to Damien Lewis, and the Broncos blog thinks he’s like a low-B/high-C guard. Should a team pay $13 million—5% of its salary cap—for a guard who is maybe marginally better than a player who costs $5 million or could be had in the middle rounds of the draft? Lewis and Powers and Hunt—none of them were first round picks.

I haven’t heard one person say that the Panthers got a game-changing guard for $20 million per season and the reason the Seahawks couldn’t compete for a guard in the free agent market is that they’re not as willing to overpay as the teams that got ridiculed for pass protection in 2023 and had money to spend. Carolina wasn’t going to let the offseason pass without upgrading virtually every position around Bryce Young, so Seattle was in no position to compete with that.

Will the guards who sign for $3-$6 million be so much worse than Hunt and Lewis that the Seahawks become the next team that can’t protect? I don’t see that as a consistent trend and Seattle didn’t need to overpay just for competence. As Chris Cluff noted on Twitter on Monday, the Seahawks are regularly ranked near the bottom of paying guards: 30th in 2015, 32nd in 2016, 30th in 2023, and currently 32nd going into this week.

And if the Seahawks did pay their guards as much as other teams, then people would simply change the position and keep the context: “The Seahawks signed Damien Lewis and Jonah Jackson but let Leonard Williams leave for nothing! They don’t pay defensive line!”

Seattle seems to have a goal—whether you agree or disagree with it, this is their philosophy, not my own—of saving on the offensive line to spend on other positions. Up until now, one of those positions was safety. The Seahawks spent way more on safeties than any other team in the NFL. Now that they have Jenkins and Julian Love instead of Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams, it would seem like they’re shifting that money elsewhere…the Seahawks are paying more money to wide receivers than any team in the NFL and are almost top-5 in spending on defensive tackles because of Williams and Jones.

Enter to win: Subscriber giveaway to win the ‘W’ glasses as seen in the Seahawks 2024 season

The Seahawks could draft a guard in the first round—I’m not here to tell you that I know what they will do or won’t do—but it would be a shift in organizational philosophy in the post-Pete era based on historical trends; Seattle doesn’t (intentionally) draft guards and centers in the first two rounds.

No matter what Schneider does in the draft, we know he’ll get a grade. Based on what usually happens with the Seahawks, he will get a poor grade for it anyway. And it still won’t matter.