I couldn't agree more as I reflect back to the Steelers/ Seahawks super bowl that was decided by the refs, clipping my butt, that wasn't clipping! He is a quarter back!
The NFL isn’t rigged and it doesn’t need to be. I suspect the levels of steroids, corruption inside organizations, and general behavior among the elite players and team insiders would sadden the most jaded among us; but the refs aren’t deciding games and the players aren’t taking dives. There might be individuals cheating (beyond PEDs) but no way is there orchestrated deciding of game results.
The no call on obvious PI in the New Orleans play off game that kept the Saints from the Super Bowl made a lot of fans question the integrity of the NFL.
While I don't think that games are overtly rigged, I believe that they are impacted by refs' calls over a long term. Anywhere there are massive amounts of money, there will be people who will do everything they can to figure out how to get a piece of it. Corruption abounds everywhere. Whether it be scammers trying to steal unemployment monies from people, companies that cross the line of the law to obtain a municipal contract, people in high places that accept bribes, boxers that take the fall and lose deliberately, all manner of grift, con games, deceit, and fraud, surely sports has all of that. Are the refs in on it, too? Yes. Here's my theory.
Gambling is a multi-billion dollar industry. There is a whole industry of people doing everything to affect the odds in their favor, and cheating is part of that like everything else that has big bucks. There have been many instances of refs being caught involved with cheating scandals in the past. Is it still happening? Of course it is. We don't know until something gets outed and makes the news. My theory is that certain refs are tasked with doing something that can affect the point spreads of the games. Not every ref is involved. But perhaps there are some refs in each game like just one, a couple, or a few that are supposed to make a key call or non-call at some key point in time to affect the outcome of the game. Again, I don't think that the games are overtly rigged. There are too many factors and variables in a game that will not guarantee with one hundred percent certainty a desired outcome. But, over a period of time, if some refs are influencing the game in a certain way, the results will play out statistically over the long term. We tend to think of gambling as this quick and fast play drama. You win big or lose big. But, parties with big money who are privy to the workings of certain games affected by their "guys" can win over the long term. It's like the casino always comes out ahead. The house always has a statistical advantage over the people that play. Probably the bad calls or non-calls that these compromised refs do may not tilt the game overtly for one game. But over a period of time, their influence will show up statistically and those in the know can be assured that their bets will pay off big time.
If the NFL was rigged I'd imagine they would've wanted a show down between Russ and mahomes in the afc playoffs, and in the nfc, it would've been the rams running it back, showing this new dynasty with Stafford. As you said, based on the scheduling, those were the story lines they seemed to have felt would've been most compelling.
I wonder what NFL officiating would look like if the referees were full time NFL employees with a salary and benefits and all that comes with it. Would we get a superior product on the field if these guys and gals were dedicated to a full time and long-term career? Could there be full time offseason work that would improve the in-season product? Could their gametime performance be used to evaluate future opportunities for advancement? I don't think the NFL is rigged, but I do think that an organization that makes this much money can afford to invest in the quality of its officiating instead of another few million dollars to its commissioner.
As interesting as that query is, it's not like refs are working at fast food restaurants. Many of them are lawyers or they have high-paying gigs and the NFL is fully just their weekend hobby. I say that just because it's like, I have no idea why these people want these jobs, but I don't necessarily think that people who dedicate their lives to being refs will be better at these jobs than people who find it to be a good path for them as a side gig.
This is interesting, because whilst NFL Ref's are technically part time, during the actual season itself they are functionally full time. This is also reflected in their wage's, which on average is ~$200k (This is average for all Refs, from veteran Head Refs to rookie Sideliners, but i'd be shocked if the low end was far below 150k, and the high end topping out at 250k), this wage is topped up with per-game fees as well.
So the Ref's do not need a 9-5 Mon-Fri Job. They can live, comfortably, off their "part time" pay packet. Their CBA does also entitle them to a lot of expenses for travel, training and medical and other insurances that will make 99% of us envious. [Current Ref-CBA runs through 2026 i believe].
This does allow the Reds time in the week to work on their fitness, and with ther union and support groups they will 100% go back and review their games and performances.
This is very similar in structure to most other global top end leagues. Technically not "full-time" but have zero need to work a normal job, and we might as well just classify they as full time in our minds.
In terms of then thinking, how do we then get them to improve their performances? Well i think this rests on the NFL and it's rule books. Defining things like Pass Interference or Holding will always be nightmarish, compared to Offsides or Delay of Game. You add in a messy Play Review system where only a fraction of things are reviewable, less are challengeable, and only at certain times. - Long point made short, the NFL Rule book is messy with so many grey areas, and the NFL seems unwilling to expand their review capabilities to cover this.
This also goes with a massive increase in broadcast coverage, so we can watch 3-4 angles in slo-mo of every play and player at any moment in the game. The Refs, they get one angle, at full speed. I myself was a soccer Ref for several years and my god, trying to judge whether a contact was or was not a foul, whilst also watching two players off the ball grabbing each other, and if the ball went out, and so on and so on. It's really f*cking hard!
Ok in the NFL each ref has their kind of one section to monitor, but again that still contains a metric sh*t ton of action, hands, feet, lines, noises etc to filter, interpret, and decide upon.
The best way for the NFL to improve officiating, in my opinion:- Expand the video review system. Simplify the rule book. Quantify those rules where possible. Filter their investment down into College, HS, Grass Roots etc football refs as well, with expanded trainings and support networks so we can guarantee a steady string of NFL ready Refs for the future. (Also we as fans need to chill out on Refs, never throw abuse at them, accept that humans can make mistakes, understand we get a privileged vision and time to make our armchair calls, and we should be impressed they get such a high % of calls correct as it is)
Anyway long post :p But yeah, as former Ref i'm always very hot on this topic in any sport and want to try and help us all be more understanding and supportive of Referees.
Great insight, thanks! But how do the refs get into the NFL - what’s the development path? Can you start young and quickly progress the ranks? Because I see a lot of NFL officials out there who look like they would be otherwise be retired in any other line of work, and it staggers me that the majority are not in their 30s/40s. With so much at stake, it’s baffling that NFL officiating is still run in such an amateurish fashion.
I'll be slightly guessing here as i'm not fully sure. My expectation is you start at low level grassroots games with kids, move up to HS games, move up to College games, and onwards to the NFL - all based on your ability to do your job well. Because that's how it works in other sports, you start at a low amateur level, get better, move up, get better and so on. Whilst there isn't an overall US American Football sanctioning body, there are lots of local groups - and maybe even a regional NFL dev centre/org - who can get you started and trained.
One of the things with being an American Football ref, physical fitness is not a big factor. Certainly in comparison to Soccer or Rugby (my primary touchstones and experiences). The stop/start nature means endurance fitness is not a defining factor, and with the number of officials you only need to move maybe 20-30yards per play, then rest for 30", repeat. So you could Ref for far longer than equivalent in a much more continuously mobile sport. (Think why Golfers play far later into their lives than NFL players do - less wear & tear = longer career)
Had to make my first comment count - reader for a couple of months via links from FieldGulls, today finally made me commit to the subscription. So bonus thank you!
Thanks K, this is a great response to my comment/questions. I really appreciate your perspective as a former official. I like your suggestions on how to improve officiating, and in particular the idea of expanding training and support to every level of football. It's a thankless job (other than the paycheck), and I hope the NFL spares no expense in preparing its referees to do the best job they can every Sunday (and Monday night, and Thursday night, and sometimes Saturday).
No idea if it's rigged, but with the money in the NFL it's rather difficult to think there's no manipulating going on for the benefit of the more influential owners. That's not a conspiracy, it's how wealthy people operate. The change in rules during off-seasons is a manipulation of what they saw as a place where they could play with the calls and penalties after a season where some teams may have complained they would have won if only X hadn't happened.
Wealthy influential people aren't known for playing fair if a tweak and a cheat will enhance their bottom line. Let's see how this next off-season changes things to help the Broncos now that the Waltons own them.
I am not saying it's rigged, But I have what I believe to be a serious question. The Seahawks get at Least two bad calls every single game, and they actually or could or have made a difference in the outcome of their games! If I was the Head Coach I would be letting the Honcho's at the NFL know that I am fed up with this Sh*t! And this is not something New!!!
I would never say never, but I believe there is no corruption to speak of in the NFL. Certainly no conspiracies that include more than two people as even one person has trouble keeping a secret. Two creates problems of trust, and three guarantees that the secret will spread like wildfire.
It’s not rigged. Too many variables and too many people would have to be “in the know” for it to remain a secret. All you need is one disgruntled guy to say “fuck it” and get a multimillion dollar book deal or other expose.
I couldn't agree more as I reflect back to the Steelers/ Seahawks super bowl that was decided by the refs, clipping my butt, that wasn't clipping! He is a quarter back!
The NFL isn’t rigged and it doesn’t need to be. I suspect the levels of steroids, corruption inside organizations, and general behavior among the elite players and team insiders would sadden the most jaded among us; but the refs aren’t deciding games and the players aren’t taking dives. There might be individuals cheating (beyond PEDs) but no way is there orchestrated deciding of game results.
The no call on obvious PI in the New Orleans play off game that kept the Saints from the Super Bowl made a lot of fans question the integrity of the NFL.
While I don't think that games are overtly rigged, I believe that they are impacted by refs' calls over a long term. Anywhere there are massive amounts of money, there will be people who will do everything they can to figure out how to get a piece of it. Corruption abounds everywhere. Whether it be scammers trying to steal unemployment monies from people, companies that cross the line of the law to obtain a municipal contract, people in high places that accept bribes, boxers that take the fall and lose deliberately, all manner of grift, con games, deceit, and fraud, surely sports has all of that. Are the refs in on it, too? Yes. Here's my theory.
Gambling is a multi-billion dollar industry. There is a whole industry of people doing everything to affect the odds in their favor, and cheating is part of that like everything else that has big bucks. There have been many instances of refs being caught involved with cheating scandals in the past. Is it still happening? Of course it is. We don't know until something gets outed and makes the news. My theory is that certain refs are tasked with doing something that can affect the point spreads of the games. Not every ref is involved. But perhaps there are some refs in each game like just one, a couple, or a few that are supposed to make a key call or non-call at some key point in time to affect the outcome of the game. Again, I don't think that the games are overtly rigged. There are too many factors and variables in a game that will not guarantee with one hundred percent certainty a desired outcome. But, over a period of time, if some refs are influencing the game in a certain way, the results will play out statistically over the long term. We tend to think of gambling as this quick and fast play drama. You win big or lose big. But, parties with big money who are privy to the workings of certain games affected by their "guys" can win over the long term. It's like the casino always comes out ahead. The house always has a statistical advantage over the people that play. Probably the bad calls or non-calls that these compromised refs do may not tilt the game overtly for one game. But over a period of time, their influence will show up statistically and those in the know can be assured that their bets will pay off big time.
Gambling is a reasonable concern.
AMEN
If the NFL was rigged I'd imagine they would've wanted a show down between Russ and mahomes in the afc playoffs, and in the nfc, it would've been the rams running it back, showing this new dynasty with Stafford. As you said, based on the scheduling, those were the story lines they seemed to have felt would've been most compelling.
An even better reason to hand it to Lynch. I hate Goodell
Goodell is a tool. Period.
I wonder what NFL officiating would look like if the referees were full time NFL employees with a salary and benefits and all that comes with it. Would we get a superior product on the field if these guys and gals were dedicated to a full time and long-term career? Could there be full time offseason work that would improve the in-season product? Could their gametime performance be used to evaluate future opportunities for advancement? I don't think the NFL is rigged, but I do think that an organization that makes this much money can afford to invest in the quality of its officiating instead of another few million dollars to its commissioner.
As interesting as that query is, it's not like refs are working at fast food restaurants. Many of them are lawyers or they have high-paying gigs and the NFL is fully just their weekend hobby. I say that just because it's like, I have no idea why these people want these jobs, but I don't necessarily think that people who dedicate their lives to being refs will be better at these jobs than people who find it to be a good path for them as a side gig.
This is interesting, because whilst NFL Ref's are technically part time, during the actual season itself they are functionally full time. This is also reflected in their wage's, which on average is ~$200k (This is average for all Refs, from veteran Head Refs to rookie Sideliners, but i'd be shocked if the low end was far below 150k, and the high end topping out at 250k), this wage is topped up with per-game fees as well.
So the Ref's do not need a 9-5 Mon-Fri Job. They can live, comfortably, off their "part time" pay packet. Their CBA does also entitle them to a lot of expenses for travel, training and medical and other insurances that will make 99% of us envious. [Current Ref-CBA runs through 2026 i believe].
This does allow the Reds time in the week to work on their fitness, and with ther union and support groups they will 100% go back and review their games and performances.
This is very similar in structure to most other global top end leagues. Technically not "full-time" but have zero need to work a normal job, and we might as well just classify they as full time in our minds.
In terms of then thinking, how do we then get them to improve their performances? Well i think this rests on the NFL and it's rule books. Defining things like Pass Interference or Holding will always be nightmarish, compared to Offsides or Delay of Game. You add in a messy Play Review system where only a fraction of things are reviewable, less are challengeable, and only at certain times. - Long point made short, the NFL Rule book is messy with so many grey areas, and the NFL seems unwilling to expand their review capabilities to cover this.
This also goes with a massive increase in broadcast coverage, so we can watch 3-4 angles in slo-mo of every play and player at any moment in the game. The Refs, they get one angle, at full speed. I myself was a soccer Ref for several years and my god, trying to judge whether a contact was or was not a foul, whilst also watching two players off the ball grabbing each other, and if the ball went out, and so on and so on. It's really f*cking hard!
Ok in the NFL each ref has their kind of one section to monitor, but again that still contains a metric sh*t ton of action, hands, feet, lines, noises etc to filter, interpret, and decide upon.
The best way for the NFL to improve officiating, in my opinion:- Expand the video review system. Simplify the rule book. Quantify those rules where possible. Filter their investment down into College, HS, Grass Roots etc football refs as well, with expanded trainings and support networks so we can guarantee a steady string of NFL ready Refs for the future. (Also we as fans need to chill out on Refs, never throw abuse at them, accept that humans can make mistakes, understand we get a privileged vision and time to make our armchair calls, and we should be impressed they get such a high % of calls correct as it is)
Anyway long post :p But yeah, as former Ref i'm always very hot on this topic in any sport and want to try and help us all be more understanding and supportive of Referees.
Great insight, thanks! But how do the refs get into the NFL - what’s the development path? Can you start young and quickly progress the ranks? Because I see a lot of NFL officials out there who look like they would be otherwise be retired in any other line of work, and it staggers me that the majority are not in their 30s/40s. With so much at stake, it’s baffling that NFL officiating is still run in such an amateurish fashion.
I'll be slightly guessing here as i'm not fully sure. My expectation is you start at low level grassroots games with kids, move up to HS games, move up to College games, and onwards to the NFL - all based on your ability to do your job well. Because that's how it works in other sports, you start at a low amateur level, get better, move up, get better and so on. Whilst there isn't an overall US American Football sanctioning body, there are lots of local groups - and maybe even a regional NFL dev centre/org - who can get you started and trained.
One of the things with being an American Football ref, physical fitness is not a big factor. Certainly in comparison to Soccer or Rugby (my primary touchstones and experiences). The stop/start nature means endurance fitness is not a defining factor, and with the number of officials you only need to move maybe 20-30yards per play, then rest for 30", repeat. So you could Ref for far longer than equivalent in a much more continuously mobile sport. (Think why Golfers play far later into their lives than NFL players do - less wear & tear = longer career)
much better put than what I said! please enjoy some premium Joe.
Had to make my first comment count - reader for a couple of months via links from FieldGulls, today finally made me commit to the subscription. So bonus thank you!
Thanks K, this is a great response to my comment/questions. I really appreciate your perspective as a former official. I like your suggestions on how to improve officiating, and in particular the idea of expanding training and support to every level of football. It's a thankless job (other than the paycheck), and I hope the NFL spares no expense in preparing its referees to do the best job they can every Sunday (and Monday night, and Thursday night, and sometimes Saturday).
Sorry about your Seaside Toe.
thank you! haha
Chargers because of LA. Dallas most years, always been America's team.
Russell could have called an audible
No idea if it's rigged, but with the money in the NFL it's rather difficult to think there's no manipulating going on for the benefit of the more influential owners. That's not a conspiracy, it's how wealthy people operate. The change in rules during off-seasons is a manipulation of what they saw as a place where they could play with the calls and penalties after a season where some teams may have complained they would have won if only X hadn't happened.
Wealthy influential people aren't known for playing fair if a tweak and a cheat will enhance their bottom line. Let's see how this next off-season changes things to help the Broncos now that the Waltons own them.
I am not saying it's rigged, But I have what I believe to be a serious question. The Seahawks get at Least two bad calls every single game, and they actually or could or have made a difference in the outcome of their games! If I was the Head Coach I would be letting the Honcho's at the NFL know that I am fed up with this Sh*t! And this is not something New!!!
I brain cramped and voted who I thought would win, not who would win if it was rigged. I need to change my NFC vote from Eagles to Cowboys.
I would never say never, but I believe there is no corruption to speak of in the NFL. Certainly no conspiracies that include more than two people as even one person has trouble keeping a secret. Two creates problems of trust, and three guarantees that the secret will spread like wildfire.
It’s not rigged. Too many variables and too many people would have to be “in the know” for it to remain a secret. All you need is one disgruntled guy to say “fuck it” and get a multimillion dollar book deal or other expose.
If it's not rigged,, then why did Russell Wilson throw that garbage pass, and not just turn around and hand it to Lynch???
Because Goodell hates Marshawn for all his press conference shenanigans!
Because Darrell Bevel got cute.