The best part about being a Chicago Bears quarterback is that it won’t take much to become the greatest passer in the history of the franchise. The worst part is being a Chicago Bears quarterback and joining that pantheon of failed projects. The Seattle Seahawks will face the latest (and greatest?) of those attempts when they host the Bears next Monday night.
Caleb Williams — the only quarterback ever drafted first overall by the Bears — stands a greater chance of breaking that mold than anyone who has started for the franchise since Sid Luckman, the Hall of Famer drafted in 1939. Maybe Williams will be the one who changes Chicago’s reputation at quarterback.
What won’t change is crowning a heavily-hyped high school and college quarterback as “elite” in the NFL before he’s even proven to be good.
Although Williams has made strides since his rookie season in 2023 — which is encouraging and not necessarily that common anymore — he was already overrated last year going into the playoffs after “leading” the Bears to an 11-6 record, including six fourth quarter comebacks; your team won’t have anything to come back from if they aren’t buried in a hole first.
Williams was exceptionally inaccurate, completing 58.1% of his passes and ranking 32nd in adjusted completion percentage per PFF. In two playoff games, Williams had five interceptions and a fumble and was even less accurate. In his defense, Williams had to learn a new offense from head coach Ben Johnson, going from 90 under-center throws as a rookie to 176 in year two, and doubling his rate of play action.
This season, Williams’ numbers are already better. Way better. He’s completing 71% of his passes, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, and has only thrown one interception. Play action has been much more of a potent weapon this year compared to last, as Williams has already thrown three touchdowns off of it. And Williams seems to have a better supporting cast this year, even after trading D.J. Moore, as Luther Burden and Colston Loveland have all got more comfortable in the offense.
So why the word of caution before declaring Williams as “elite”?
First, Williams has only played in four games so far because of a hamstring injury. In his only start against a great defense — the Vikings — he was just as bad as he was in his worst games last year. 57% completions, 0 TD, 1 INT, 5.3 Y/A, one fumble.
Second, Williams’ strides in accuracy are HEAVILY tied to the fact that Johnson has reined in the quarterback’s average depth of target: From 8.4 yards in 2025 to 6.2 yards in 2026. Williams is completing 74.5% of his throws under 10 air yards (70/94) and 56% of his throws 10-19 yards (14/25). He has only attempted five passes all season of 20+ yards.
Williams ranks 15th in intermediate completion rate and 19th in completion rate over expectation on those throws.
If we were being totally fair, is Williams having a better season than Kyler Murray? Than Tyler Huntley? Michael Penix? Jayden Daniels? The numbers and the context for those numbers wouldn’t say that he is, but Caleb is such an “of the moment” player because of how recently/how high he was drafted that he’s immediately vaulted into MVP conversations as soon as he’s just not bad anymore.
However, if you get pressure on Caleb, he’s bad. If you take away Chicago’s run game, he’s bad. If you make him throw past 10 yards, you take him out of the comfort zone that Johnson created just so he could get his completion rate over 60%.
Actually, he does remind me of Cam Newton in one way … Newton completed 52% of his passes in 2016, so the Panthers drafted Christian McCaffrey in 2017 and suddenly Newton’s completion rate went up to 59%, then 68% in 2018, a number he had never come close to before. Why? Because Carolina made a running back their number one receiver and shortened the distance Newton had to throw.
(Newton was on his way out of the league the next year.)
Williams is a lot better than Newton. He could even be the best quarterback in the league one day. That day just isn’t today.
Join Super Joes today, or upgrade from Regular Joes at a prorated annual rate, and you’ll get the Q&A newsletter next time!
Beezo: What are the Bears strengths on offense? What makes Ben Johnson such a good play caller? If I recall da Bears were most likely to regress to the mean this season based on many factors (come from behind wins, one score game wins and turnover differential). It seems like they have been bipolar this year, showing the regression then completing dominating teams - what’s the reality? Have they faced anyone as good as the Seattle D (this year and last)?
Sometimes “regression” is a safe word for overrated. If the Bears had beaten the Rams in the divisional round, the NFC Championship wouldn’t have been close. Seattle would have won that by 20+. Have they improved though?
Mike Macdonald last faced Ben Johnson in 2024 when he was the offensive coordinator of the Lions, and it did not go well. That’s the game in which Jared Goff went 18-of-18 for 292 yards, and Detroit also rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns. Needless to say, the Seahawks defense has grown a lot since then and warrants little comparison to today’s team.
I have no doubt that Bears fans will follow the exact same formula as last week’s Chiefs fans:
“The Seahawks may be a good defense, but they can’t stop this offense.”
“This offensive genius is the best offensive genius.”
“Seattle hasn’t faced a rushing offense as good as this one.”
And hey, maybe there’s even some truth to that. Maybe it’s fair. Yes, the Bears are ranked first in rushing yards this season. Yes, the Bears are seventh in scoring. Yes, Caleb Williams missed three games.
I’m sure that of all the offenses, Chicago’s is one that might frustrate Macdonald more than most. I’m also skeptical of the Bears for a few reasons.
The 2 best defenses the Bears have faced — the Vikings and Packers — held Chicago to a combined 10 points
Williams hasn’t played enough this season to prove that he’s improved on some of the things setting him back last season
He played most of the Vikings game — and was terrible
Since scoring 59 against the Panthers in Week 1 — the worst defense Chicago faced all year — they’re only averaging 20 points per game
Roschon Johnson is no substitute for Kyle Monangai, whose status for Week 8 is uncertain
The last point may be the most relevant for Monday: The Bears averaged 196.25 rushing yards per game with Monangai. Since they lost Monangai, they’ve averaged 98.3 rushing yards per game.
Monangai has been out with a toe injury but did not go on IR. Monitoring his practice status this week will be important. And their rushing production was cut in half against teams that had above-average run defenses, not a top-ranked unit like Seattle’s.
Outside of their two worst games, the Bears offense has performed above-average against those other defenses compared to common opponents. Even so, their Week 1 game against the Panthers is doing a lot of heavy lifting for their season averages, so I wouldn’t go as far as to say that the Bears have a “special offense” other than to say that maybe when they’re full-strength they are capable of being unpredictably explosive.
Defensively, the Bears have seen the fewest pass attempts per game of any team, but they’ve allowed more passing touchdowns than they’ve thrown and they rank 31st in net yards per attempt allowed. They have also seen the fewest rushing attempts because Chicago controls time of possession and is ranked first in third-down conversion rate allowed.
However, part of the reason for a higher time of possession is the manner in which offenses have been able to quickly move the ball against them. Only the Dolphins allow more yards per pass than Chicago.
And as far as their third-down defense:
5 of the 7 teams they’ve faced rank 20th or worse in third-down conversion rate
The Panthers have the best third down offense they’ve faced and they only rank 12th (41% on the season, 44% against Chicago)
The 4 worst teams went 9/41 on third down, but the 3 best teams went 9/28
Not saying Seattle can repeat the third down night they just had against Kansas City, but the Seahawks improved their season numbers dramatically and now rank 19th. I will give credit where it’s due: Teams are on average worse against the Bears than they are against other teams this season.
Put it together, the Bears are neither spectacular nor bad on either side of the ball, but how can anyone confidently rank a single NFC North team at this point? The best team could be in last place and the worst team could be in first place … right now Chicago is in second place. To prove that they are actual Super Bowl contenders, the Bears must perform at a high level against a GOOD-to-GREAT defense like Seattle’s, otherwise they’ll be 0-for-3 against the three toughest teams on their schedule thus far.
Which offensively should come down to a) Can the Bears run the ball against an elite run defense and will Monangai be back? and b) can the Seahawks put pressure on Caleb Williams?
Williams is 73/83 (88%) for 854 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT under no pressure, but 15/41 (36.6%) for 166 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT under pressure.
The Seahawks have the second-highest pressure rate in 2026, only behind the Vikings, and they held Chicago to three points. Getting to former top-10 pick right tackle Darnell Wright may be the key there, as he allowed the second-most pressures at his position prior to Week 7:
Offensively, Seattle must adhere to a committed ground attack, specifically hitting the edges as the Bears are one of the worst teams stopping the run outside of the tackles and one of the best teams inside. And as always a heavy dose of Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Perhaps the game most similar to this one so far would be the 49ers game. Which means if the Seahawks don’t turn it over four times, they should be able to win.
IdahoFred: Everyone did pretty well in the KC game. Do you think we still need to trade for extra bodies?
I might be slightly more hesitant to give every player a passing grade on Sunday night because the Seahawks had 13 points prior to Emanuel Wilson’s touchdown run with under 4 minutes remaining. I wasn’t really even surprised by anything that happened on Sunday — other than Wilson hitting 100 yards — so I wouldn’t have much reason to change an opinion from last week because I expect the Seahawks to beat the Chiefs almost exactly in the manner that they did.
There was no improvement from Rashid Shaheed or proof that Seattle knows how to use him, plus he’s now injured or hurt. Cooper Kupp is, as usual, good for an important play or two per game. Charles Cross is injured. There was nothing I saw from the offensive line that was necessarily “proof” that the Seahawks are now going to consistently protect Darnold against better defensive lines than Kansas City’s.
Did we reach a point where the phrase “The Seahawks couldn’t add Quenton Nelson because of Anthony Bradford” is not punishable by banishment?
Seattle would still 100% be a better team with Jonathan Taylor and Nelson. Should they/could they/will they? We’re not listening to those GM conversations so we don’t know how smart or realistic those talks could get, but in a vacuum of course they would make the Seahawks better.
The Seahawks won the Super Bowl last year with Shaheed and Kupp and this same offensive line (and I would’ve still made changes in the offseason) so Seattle could do nothing and win a lot of games again. It doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t be even better and more bulletproof if they did though.
There’s just nothing that could happen in the next two weeks that would convince me that the Seahawks couldn’t improve their roster before the trade deadline — and you better believe the 49ers and Rams are just as likely to make a move as Seattle. The Rams once added Von Miller before the deadline and won the Super Bowl; the 49ers once added Christian McCaffrey before the deadline.
It’s a time of year to embrace a change.
Samuel Garfield: Weird thing I noticed about the schedule: starting on 12/7 the Seahawks have THREE short weeks (6 days between games) in a ROW. They play on Monday, then Sunday then Saturday then finally Friday (Christmas). Then they have a ten day gap between Christmas and their next game Monday January 3rd.
This feels like it’s gotta be very uncommon? Any idea how much playing with a 6 day break instead of 7 affects teams’ performance? How much do you think this will affect the Seahawks’ performance? I imagine it being a logistical nightmare since players & coaches need days off but you also need to cram in 7 days worth of prep into 6 days thrice in a row.
You’re right it is unusual, mainly because the NFL has crammed Seattle’s together in December. Perhaps they feel less bad about it because three of the games are at home and three of the games are in primetime and none of the games are in the morning.
However, the Bears and Bills both have more “short weeks” than Seattle overall, with six each, the most in the NFL.
For example, Chicago has two Thursday night games after playing on Sunday, two Sunday games after playing on a Monday, and they play the same 12/13 to 12/19 to 12/25 month as the Seahawks do, as does Buffalo.
Mike Florio recently mentioned that the NFL has this oddity of teams playing three consecutive primetime games this year (including Seattle right now) and theorized that the league is testing out ways to get teams prepared for Tuesday and Wednesday games in the future. That the NFL wants to start dominating five nights a week, not just Thursday, Sunday, and Monday.
Your keen eye for Seattle’s short weeks is perhaps further proof of that theory holding weight.
If the league is looking at Tuesday and Wednesday games, I sure hope they add a couple of weeks to the schedule without adding games. We already see Thursday games are much sloppier than Sunday or Monday games. Adding more mid-week games without adding some downtime is gonna result in a lesser product.