Does Noah Fant have trade value?

Will Noah Fant be next year's Jonnu Smith or just a blemish on John Schneider's 2024 contracts?

The history of Seaside Joe’s takes on Noah Fant is at best mixed, but the dream has never changed: IF Fant ever realized his potential, he would become the Seahawks BEST all-around offensive weapon.

The issue is results, not potential.

Prior to last season, “Why I do and don’t think Noah Fant is going to have a breakout season” quickly became one of the most-commented newsletters in our history and that’s only because of the large gap that exists between what Fant could do and what Fant has actually done.

Fant is not just an alumni of Tight End U, he was:

• A much better prospect than George Kittle

• A slightly better prospect than Sam LaPorta

• Comparable to T.J. Hockenson, a former top-10 pick

Fant was teammates with Kittle and Hockenson, his measurables compare with the best tight end prospects in NFL Draft history, and the Broncos picked him 20th overall. As a piece of the Russell Wilson trade, Fant was expected to be at least as good as the 2023 first rounder that Seattle got in the deal (before we knew it would be fifth overall).

But even if Fant isn’t worse than he was in Denver, he’s also not better and that’s what should concern the Seahawks more than a slow career start: I think tight end is the second-hardest position to play in the NFL behind quarterback because it’s really two important jobs, not just one.

Said Tony Gonzalez:

“Tight end is one of the hardest positions to play in football. It’s right up there with quarterback and cornerback. You have to have the skills of a wide receiver and the strength of an offensive lineman, and it’s not easy to balance those two.”

Gonzalez didn’t break out until his third season in the NFL, while David Njoku, another former first round pick, took about seven years. Fant is going into his seventh season.

But this doesn’t mean that Fant’s slow development can be excused as the norm:

• Brock Bowers might already be the best tight end in football

• Third-year TE Trey McBride finished fourth in catches this season

• The really good tight ends that teams know they can depend on — which isn’t the late bloomers like Njoku or Evan Engram — were good early

And we can’t say that Fant is at least half of a great tight end either: He’s not a great blocker with underwhelming stats or a one-trick weapon who basically always lines up as a receiver like Travis Kelce. Fant’s blocking is at best acceptable, while his usage as a receiver borders on replaceable:

Former teammate Will Dissly had 50 catches for 481 yards and 2 touchdowns in 15 games during his first season with the Chargers. Their seasons were basically identical, but Dissly is considered a much better blocker and his cost to L.A.?

• $2.6 million in 2024

• $5.8 million in 2025

• $5.5 million in 2026

Fant’s cost to the Seahawks?

• $7.5 million in 2024

• $13.4 million in 2025

If up until this point of the article you were thinking to yourself, “No, no, Fant’s been great”, then maybe the financial nugget swayed your opinion slightly — I know that it did for me!

Just his 2025 cap hit alone is almost more than Dissly’s ENTIRE 3-year contract with the Chargers.

So the Seahawks are left with three options:

1 - The Seahawks can leave Fant alone, do nothing

2 - The Seahawks can cut Fant, saving $8.9 million in cap space

3 - The Seahawks can trade Fant

The first option is interesting because as noted earlier, there still might be some hope left that Fant becomes a Pro Bowl caliber tight end, which is even more important as we get closer to Tyler Lockett’s exit and a potential DK Metcalf trade. The fans worried that Metcalf draws too much attention away from Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be traded could actually have those concerned eased if Klint Kubiak knows how to use Noah Fant properly.

That opens the door to the question of whether or not Kubiak does want to feature Fant in the passing game more than Shane Waldron and Ryan Grubb did.

Specific to Kubiak, there are only two seasons we really care about:

• 2021, offensive coordinator of the Vikings

• 2024, offensive coordinator of the Saints

Yes, he’s had other important seasons and there’s a strong history of what we should expect dating back to the 90s, but these two seasons are still the most telling.

The 2021 Vikings only used one TE in the passing game and Tyler Conklin had 61 catches for 593 yards and 3 TDs. (Again, for some perspective here because I think Fant’s draft status does a lot of heavy lifting for how good people think he is, that’s a better season than any that Fant has had in Seattle.)

The 2024 Saints mixed in three tight ends:

• Juwan Johnson: 50/548/3

• Foster Moreau: 32/413/5

• Taysom Hill: 23/187/0

But Kubiak was kind of forced into a situation here because Chris Olave missed half of the season and let this sink in:

No receiver on the 2024 Saints played in more than 35% of the team’s snaps, which was Cedrick Wilson at 35%.

Given what is about to happen with Seattle’s receiver room, it becomes that much more apparent that the Seahawks could be one JSN injury away from having a very similar situation.

Still, the Seahawks could use the $9 million they would save by parting with Fant to address those concerns, including a receiver and including a different tight end. One such player is Juwan Johnson, as he will be a free agent and the only thing we know for sure is that Kubiak knows him better than he knows Fant.

Of course, there is going to be the question of whether or not Fant — who I’ve always said looks like a graceful moose* when he gets the ball in his hands — is the next Jonnu Smith.

*haven’t always said this, but will now

A player who was clearly talented during his four seasons with the Titans, Smith was a free agent bust for the Patriots in 2021-2022, traded to the Falcons for a seventh round pick in 2023, then went to the Dolphins in 2024. Two seasons after he had 27/245/0 with the Patriots, and coming off of a 50/582/3 season with the Falcons, Smith broke out for 88 catches, 884 yards, and 8 touchdowns in Miami.

He led the Dolphins in touchdowns, success rate, and receptions, while averaging more catches and yards per game than Jaylen Waddle, as well as more yards per target than Tyreek Hill.

The Dolphins snatched him up for only a two-year, $8.4 million contract.

This is the reason the Seahawks would keep Fant, but it is important to remember that is it not good enough for him to just be decent or above-average like he’s always been. Fant has the ninth-highest tight end cap hit in the NFL, yet he went almost two full seasons between touchdowns.

So if the Seahawks decide that they don’t have a place for Fant, what can they expect to get for him in trade?

Unfortunately, any deal might look underwhelming to Seahawks fans if it does happen.

What a team would be trading for

As noted, a team wouldn’t just be trading for Fant, but also the $9 million he’s owed, all of which transfers to the new team. That’s the 14th-most cash going to a tight end this year (so far) and for a lot of franchises that would be like Fant being their top addition of the 2025 offseason.

Again, kind of a tough sell for a tight end who was 83rd in catches, 91st in yards, and only scored one touchdown — as impressive as the play itself was, did Fant have to wait until Seattle was playing a team that was resting for the postseason?

The Patriots could only get a seventh for Jonnu Smith when it seemed his career was teetering on its conclusion.

And then there aren’t many other examples I can draw from that would be tight ends similar to Fant. The Ravens somehow got a second round pick for Hayden Hurst in 2020 (also to the Falcons), but that was five years ago and Hurst still had two years left on his rookie contract.

As I noted a month ago, I think John Schneider should focus more on the 2026 draft than the 2025 draft, so maybe in a very lucky world he could compel a team to trade a fourth round pick in next year’s draft. If we didn’t know anything else about Fant besides what we’ve seen of him on the field, he’s an expensive tight end who has been in the NFL for six years and yet to really break out as a receiver or a blocker.

Under those circumstances, a 2026 fourth round pick wouldn’t be bad.

It is also why the Seahawks may just mull over whether they want to keep Fant and find a way to make him less expensive. See if Kubiak can unlock his potential and throw a bunch of incentives on his next deal to motivate some better production.

Absent that, Seattle would probably take the best trade offer they can get rather than straight up releasing him. If the Seahawks release Fant, it says that no team really sees him as a $9 million tight end and there must not have been anything on the table.

Seaside Joe 2164