After an evening to think about it. I think Kenneth is absolutely right when he points out that likely boiled down to an argument about quarterbacks. Over the years reporting has come out that John was actively trying to find the next generational quarterback. It was reported that he wanted to trade up to get Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Last year the Seahawks were in the position to trade up and get a QB. As Kenneth pointed out, the Seahawks could have, with less long-term pain offered the same or better deal than Carolina ultimately did to Chicago. My belief is Pete likely nixed that deal. Now if JOHN wanted to spend all that draft to take Young - Pete would look extremely smart. But if John wanted CJ Stroud then Seattle has passed on three franchise QBs. CJ is a John kind of QB cause he can throw the ball like very few in the NFL). How things played also backs this up. This is not to say that Pete wasn’t open to taking a quarterback. I suspect that Richardson was Pete’s compromise quarterback. Pete wants to run the ball and running consistently in the NFL requires a running QB. But the Colts took Richardson, and Pete got the player he really wanted. I think the player they got is a future All Pro but that is not going to win a championship.
I was sure they were going to keep Pete, but in hindsight, the signs were there. John wasn’t at the end of the year press conference. Peter King reported about a day before the firing that the Seahawks were trying to move up. I took that speculation, because it just didn’t sound like something Pete would do. But now I think it was what Peter was hearing from others.
I suspect that this began with giving John complete player control and Pete fought back. Over Monday and Tuesday I believe they had the same argument that many of us have had here about going all in for a franchise QB to build around or building a team. Pete competed but he didn’t win, John did. And Kenneth is absolutely right that the Seahawks went from being Pete’s team to being John’s. John went from being one of the least powerful GMs to one of the most powerful. That shape the Seahawks for the foreseeable future.
As an old white guy who loved Pete and his old school style of football- strong, punishing defense combined with balanced offense I’m hoping for something unusual from the Seahawks this time. I hope they find a young, energetic, positive African American coach. The league is dominated by African American players, but very few African American head coaches. Let’s put another crack in that glass ceiling. Maybe Jody can find a woman to add to the coaching team for good measure. Prove that an organization that won with a “fun” coach can also win with someone other than the usual boring white guy.
I know we’re just supposed to care about the wins and losses, but I don’t. I wished for another SB win, but never to trade Pete’s positivity for Bellicheck’s gloomy persona. I want the Hawks to be a franchise that young, talented men want to play for and I think many of those guys would relish the chance to play for an African American coach. Having said that, please not coach Prime!
Has anyone else read The Athletic article about Mike Vrabel's firing? He comes across as an arrogant, irritating mansplainer who wanted full control of the Titans because he "deserved" it. To the extent that the article is accurate, I can't see either Schneider or Jody Allen touching Vrabel with a 10-hundred foot pole.
Pete now gets the Grandad Role. Hangs around, tells exciting tales of bravery and heroism, beloved, but noone comes to him for genuine assistance.
John gets to be a true GM at last, and we'll see if all those past rumours were actually true or not. I'm looking forward to seeing how much he cuts loose, or if he's more conservative that we all realised and Pete was a cover.
Geno gets the benefit of an existing deal that isn't back breaking. I don't see him being cut by a new HC, however he should expect a more genuine camp battle and a shorter leash, especially as retaining him for 25 gets a chunk more costly.
No impact on a sale. The sale talk comes because now is when Jody doesn't pay additional fee to the State. There has been zero indication they want to actually sell. It's a low stress ownership and I expect it to run for a few more years - barring illness or major scandal.
Hurtt and Waldron are out, that seems clear. Not saying they'll land the same jobs elsewhere but I'd be astounded (and disappointed) if they remained. I can't see them taking lower assistance roles here.
Here are the dead cap numbers for players with an uncertain future:
Jamal Adams: $20.8M
Tyler Lockett: 19.8M
Geno Smith: 17.4M
Dre'Mont Jones: 13.3M
Quandre Diggs: 10.3M
I can't see the Seahawks using the post June 1 cut for any of these players other than Adams. Because of their ages, Jones would seem like the only candidate for renegotiation.
Still, this may be Schneider's one opportunity to rip off the Band-Aid. My thinking is that Lockett stays, Adams and Diggs are gone no matter what, Geno if Schneider expects to draft a QB, and that Jones gets another shot. What do you think?
Diggs and Dissly get cut unless they take a big pay cut. Geno is too limited , so John brings in a young, mobile QB.The bad drafts in 18, 19 , 20 and 21 that should have provide at least 8 good starters cost Pete his job. Hopefully John won't make the same mistskes..
Geno (31M), Lockett (28M), Adams (27M), and Diggs (22M) combine for an estimated 45% of the 2024 cap. None of them fit into the team’s long-term plans.
Over the last few days, I've been really curious about the draft "hit" rate. Turns out that it isn't very high overall, drops like a rock after about position 10 or 15 and again after about round 3.
The whole question is dominated by "heuristic" measures of "how do you measure 'hit'?" I'm still turning over rocks & throwing lots of salt over my shoulder. Your mileage may vary!
The numbers suggest that very few franchises (if any) consistently mange to "beat the curve", that "scouting" isn't a very objective concept, and that it would often make sense to trade down out of the late first round (after about pick 15 or so) for more picks in the second and third (and maybe the top of the fourth). It also suggests that "best player available" makes more sense in the top half of the first round, and "based on need" might become dominant after about round 2-ish.
Consistently getting two good starters out of every draft, year after year, would be a pretty good achievement. Keeping 100% of them for more than the first contract might also have been pretty special.
Pete made reference to his and John's relationship being a "marriage" several times in his speech. He stood up for John, but it didn't sound like John had his back. I haven't noticed John at the games where he often was on the sidelines before. I wish they didn't feel the need to protect anyone and could come out with exactly what the final straw was. I will always try to figure it out myself if they don't spill it.
I will know that the Seahawks have Finally turned the corner if they hire an offensive coach. Not that is in a guarantee of success, but offensive coaches are by their very nature aggressive.
Going up against the Sean McVay‘s, and Kyle Shanahan‘s of the NFL you better be aggressive or you’re going to have your lunch money taken from you.. I wish them well,for the NFL is high stakes poker at its finest.
As clearly evidenced here, I think, I am a JSPC supporter. As a 20yr manager in the hospitality industry and related sales field, I appreciate the organization Pete created and the way he treats people. I always list JSPC with JS first because I believed he was integral in the success and implementation of Pete's system. I am sad for Pete, and will accept nothing less than his successor treating people in the same honest, fair, respectful way, and I'm glad John will oversee the transition. It is his time.
To those ends, I can't see Jim Harbaugh as our coach. I am admittedly concerned with having a likeable good person as HC more so than a previous "winner" to keep our organization as one other players would love to come to. I'd be ok with John Harbaugh, if that shocker could happen. Lol. Also, I think Quinn's lack of success with ATL and inability to build a defense there will preclude him from being the next choice, too.
I am buckled in and excited to see where we go from here, but if Jim Harbaugh is involved, I will be initially quite angry and disappointed. It will take a lot of work for him to win me over. I am fully capable of loving my team and hating my coach, ask Mora.
Keep up the keeping us up, Ken! We'll see where the ride takes us
I am overjoyed that Schneider is giddy-upping. I think that just the fact that the hire has to be able to work with him, as a person and GM, and his level of control bestowed by the organization will naturally land us on a guy with the right stuff. John will look for the right fit and find him. Now, they just have to want the job.
It sounds like Schneider is firmly in the saddle (for some reason). I doubt that Seattle can offer Harbaugh the degree of control that he will demand. Same with Vrabel (and DeBors, for that matter).
I'd like to see Schneider take a good hard look at Brian Flores--there are a lot of reasons to like him--but he's going to hire an OC. I'd bet a Social Security payment that Eric Bienemy and Ben Johnson are at the top of the list. Are there any out there with one previous stint as a head coach? That may be interesting to Schneider as well.
I agree with your take on these coach candidates. Ben Johnson jumps out to me as the guy we'd love to get. He's an outsider, he's young, he's an offensive coach, he won't undermine John Schneider's leadership role (probably). He's everything that Harbaugh and Quinn wouldn't be. He is the perfect combination of talent/potential and lack of actual head coaching experience. This seems like what we should be hoping for rather than a guy who wants to come in and impose his will/culture on the organization from day one. If not Johnson, then someone with a similar portfolio.
I promise I'm going to keep track of Ben Johnson. Is he going to be the next Sean McVay or just one more looser thrown to the side of the road? We'll check back in five or nine years.
When Paul Allen hired John Schneider, John was a first time general manager, who had been climbing the corporate ladder under the best in the business in Green Bay. John moved to Seattle to take the promotion to GM - a job that he might have had to wait decades for in Green Bay.
By contrast, Pete came to Seattle with 15 years’ head coaching experience in college and the NFL, multiple championships and a brilliant resume. Pete fell naturally into the senior role, but was wise enough to frame the relationship as a partnership.
Jody/the Trustees aren’t football people. They’re business people. John is both a business person and a football person. Pete is a football person. John is the natural bridge.
It would be typical and prudent corporate governance for Jody/the Trustees to engage in succession planning for all three key employees (President Chuck Arnold, VP/GM John Schneider, VP/HC Pete Carroll). They must have seen Pete Carroll’s retirement on their sooner-rather-than-later horizon some time.
I think the decision to let John hire Pete’s successor was probably made a while back, as was the decision to expand John’s GM portfolio to include oversight of coaching when Pete retired. If you think about it, you can see that the organization has been increasing John’s public profile in preparation for this bigger role.
So, why make a move now?
I don’t think it’s because vocal fans have been calling for Pete’s replacement or because the team didn’t make the playoffs or even because the defense was embarrassingly bad.
I think it’s possible there’s a successor available to hire now that represents a special opportunity for the Seahawks, and they didn’t want to miss out on their next franchise leader for timing reasons.
And I think it’s possible that those closest to Pete realized he was never going to leave the game voluntarily - and it was time for those closest to him to blow the whistle and congratulate him on his incomparable HOF career.
As for Pete’s as yet undefined advisory role, it signifies that the Hawks will be paying him the balance of his existing contract. They have him on retainer, essentially. But more than that, Pete’s persona is woven into the Seahawk brand, and I don’t think Jody/John/the Trust want to diminish that in any way. Maybe Pete will become a Trustee - although I am not convinced he’d enjoy it
What I do think he’d like - love really - is to work on his idea of supporting retired NFL players. He talked about it during the press conference. He’s pitched it to the NFL, but got stonewalled. He’s absolutely right about the unexplored potential for good his idea has - and he’s right about the long term obligations the NFL has to its players. I hope the Hawks will partner with Pete to get this idea off the ground.
Absolutely spot on! I loved Pete’s answer about empowering players after their career. I think it’s one of the things that makes him special and I hope the Seahawks find a way to let him model such a program. Doug Baldwin would be a great partner in such an endeavor.
You're right about vocal fans--that is so much howling into a void. Also, great points about how a responsible, successful organization is run at the senior level--fans don't give that much thought, but it's critical.
Even given all of this, Pete Carroll would still be coaching if the defense hadn't declined and if Seattle had been able to build a good offensive line (this dogged Carroll's entire tenure--he never did start an above-average OL). In the end, just too much churning for the same results--a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing, as it were. The last three seasons have also made apparent the great extent to which Russell Wilson carried the team from 2017-2020.
I recognize that many people share your opinion about Russ, the OL, and the declining defense. I don’t.
You are referring to operational details that corporate governance strictly leaves to the corporate officers to manage. There is a division of labor between the top two levels in a corporation. The Board of Trustees (or in this case, The Paul Allen Trust) hire, fire, evaluate, compensate, and contract with the corporate officers. They do not concern themselves with the day to day operational details. Instead, they concern themselves with the long-term survival and prosperity of the corporation itself.
The transition from one top leader (public face, brand icon, culture setter, and keeper of the majority of a corporation’s relationship capital) to the next is a transition that has serious risks. It is only undertaken when there is an urgent need (corporate malfeasance, serious illness), retirement (applies here), gross negligence, or notice that your leader is planning to move on. This has nothing to do with the OL, defense or Russell Wilson.
So we disagree about your second paragraph.
As I stated, the Trust has known for years that Pete’s retirement would need to be managed at some point in the near future. To be clear: his contract runs through ’24, with an option for ‘25. (John’s contract runs through ‘27, which indicates the Trust has planned for John to stay after Pete for some time.) It now looks clear that the Trust didn’t intend to extend Pete to another long-term contract, which means they were on the clock to find his successor.
The Trust also knows that Pete, as a HOF coaching legend, one of one human being, would necessitate a rare individual as successor head coach.
Elevating John Schneider to the top leadership position in Pete’s place is the best of all possible outcomes for this Trust. John will ensure continuity with the Trust, enhance the brand, and preserve relationship capital. Pete made it clear that John’s elevation convinced him to embrace the change. From a corporate governance standpoint, this is as good as it gets.
Many bloggers and posters have argued with me about whether the Trust has contingency succession plans - despite the fact that this is common and necessary practice. (The Trust undoubtedly has succession plans in place for Chuck Arnold and John Schneider, too.) Late yesterday, we learned that Schneider had been updating the contingency plans for Pete over the past 2 months.
It’s possible John Schneider uncovered a candidate he thought was too good to pass up. It’s also possible that the Trust were ready to align the personnel decision process more traditionally, where the GM hires and fires the coach.
Without direct insight into the workings of the Trust, much of what is here phrased as descriptive is actually prescriptive and (in some cases) inferential. A Board of Directors SHOULD be rational. It SHOULD undertake change for the general reasons laid out here...but I've seen too many Boards that ran themselves into the ditch for bad reasons to go along with that notion as "descriptive". It turns out that egos get in the way at all levels of human endeavor.
Especially in the comments section. Except for me, of course, because I am a self-declared Idiot.
As I noted several days ago in another thread here by the Seaside: every manager SHOULD always have a succession plan for their subordinates at all times...you never know when somebody will get hit by a truck...but that notion is honored at least as often in the breach as in the observation.
As for Paul G's second paragraph: if the Fleahawks were still dominant on defense, and the OL could run block worth a hoot (as PC often stated was his philosophy), then PC probably (note the non-assertion of definitive prognostication) would have been allowed to "retire" at the end of his contract period...in part, because it would have been good corporate management to do so. It would have encouraged future hires into an expectation of really good treatment at the hands of the organization.
As for Paul G's notion that the "last three seasons have also made apparent the great extent to which Russell Wilson carried the team from 2017-2020"? Well...the last TWO seasons have exposed a profound uncertainty in that assertion. It might have been that the Seattle coaching staff knew how to use his skill set and abilities to his best advantage. I'm guessing we'll never really know for sure: there are too many degrees of freedom in that model to accurately ascertain the probabilities for the secondary contrasts in that experiment.
P.S. Don't get me wrong...I thought both of your recent comments were outstanding, being both thoughtful and well-framed. I'm glad you weighed in!
Thank you for your valuable feedback about my writing!
Yes, you are absolutely correct that Boards are composed of imperfect humans who are fallible - some are certainly far better than others at the job. I take your note, and will attempt to point out when I am drawing inferences from public information vs when I am drawing on general knowledge/life experience.
(As you noticed, I was trying to shed light on the fundamentals of corporate governance - something I understand a little from past nonprofit board membership and even more from board training. I have also carried a dual title much like Pete and John do, corporate officer + operational responsibility.)
"But there are a lot of intriguing names on the market, which may have been a catalyst towards Seattle making the decision now and not hesitating when the market could be worse off in 2025."
Exactly. Great point, KenJoe. May well be the big impetus to do so right now rather than later.
So a quick heads up to all who think this is great news. Please look at the track record on team management and operations at the other sports franchise run by Jody Allen and Vulcan.
I fear the Seahawks becoming the Trail Blazers of the NFL. Can’t draft, can’t get decent free agents, can’t get good coaches.
Anyone standing back, especially coaches who wish to win, will observe a tremendously talented group of athletes here pawing at the earth to be cut loose to show what they can do. Unlike the situation in Denver, I can expect any current Coach or coach-wannbe's will be sending resumes to Jody Allen. But I fully expect the decision was made with Pete Carroll fully aware of what was being done. The man is a Master at hiding his intentions and plans. These are honorable and straight-dealing folks. If he said he doesn't know, it is because he asked not to be told. They are experts at avoiding chaotic drama's that always negatively affect the bottom line. I see no reason the formula which brought Carroll to us could easily be repeated with Coach Harbaugh. It appears the drama surrounding his character is as much a fabrication as most news we get from corporate media. Let's recall that all such important decisions will be a huge surprise, as always happens with this outfit. Whatever is coming will be damn exciting, in any event. I don't see my subscription to Seaside Joe will have any opportunity to lapse. Truth is, I will stick around just to keep Ken out of the soup kitchens.
I feel like they'll be looking for a head coach who can run his (or her) own staff, but will ultimately answer to John Schneider. The next person won't likely be executive vice president of stuff and things. Is someone like Harbaugh more likely to except a job that gives him full control. I image some other teams out there will be willing to give that (as the Seahawks were 14 years ago).
I was confused by the evolution to advisor statement, but it seems clear now that it's just a gesture. I think they're saying, "we're contractually obligated to pay you anyway, so until you decided what you're going to do next, we'll keep your number handy."
It seems PC was a mix of angry and sad. He will try and land maybe with the chargers or raiders as HC. Who knows; Pete kept saying how young he feels.
I suspect a lot of the terse bad draft picks and trades were at Pete’s choice. Just a gut feeling as John seems to have wanted to makes moves and PC stopped him ( like earlier Wilson trades )
New coach = new QB, no question. The first job of a new coach is to be Not Pete, and the easiest way to be Not Pete is find someone else to run the offense. Hurtt is surely gone, and a new coach will likely want to hire his own staff in any case. Waldron might get a look from a new HC, or not, maybe depending on what the HC wants to do with Lock. Is Lock the new Geno as a bridge to a draft pick QB? If so, then maybe keep Waldron, too. If there is a new OC, likely neither Geno nor Lock are back.
I've said a few times before, Geno is under contract and Drew isn't. Drew will sign with a team willing to let him compete to be the starter, as in NOT Seattle, and we have Geno for one more year. We could draft what's his name from Coastal Carolina or somebody else but either way, Geno is the starter next year. I've been wrong before, but that's the way I see it.
I disagree with this. The Seahawks save $31 million by moving on from Geno. Lock would cost $4 million again and hasn't shown anything yet that would persuade a team to take him to start. Lock uses the middle of the field better than Geno and Is rather see what he does in a rebuilding year than watch a man with no real future play for money that would be better used on retaining Leonard Williams for a few more years.
We know Geno's limits, whereas Lock's are unknown. He may very well hold some big upsides. He'll be a huge proponent for properly prepping a rookie QB. Geno has said he hopes to become a QB coach. Maybe that will happen here.
Keep in mind too, now that John gets to make the personnel decisions, that he was the one who got Lock in the deal with the Broncos. John may want to bring back the cheaper Lock and give him the opportunity to compete with a new guy (draft pick).
I think there's no QB available with a better value than Geno, except in the draft. It would be malpractice to release a competent an inexpensive QB without a better option, and if you look at the free agent QBs, the best of the bunch is probably Lock.
Unless the new coach wants to tank. If he does, I'll hate him from day 1.
Other option is trading Geno. If Canales becomes a head coach somewhere, he may want to get either Geno or Mayfield (or Lock, but not Trask).
It would be like cutting Eric Hipple or Teddy Bridgewater. I just don't see Geno's by-the-book competence as an issue if Schneider wants to go in a different direction. He may never have a freer hand than right now.
You never want to be fired for someone else's choice at a key position. If you fail as a HC you want to have given yourself every chance first to make it.
As I mentioned on the other article, I think ownership wanted changes, maybe at QB, OC, or DC, or multiple, and Pete didn't want to make those changes (they have families, etc) so they decided to move on.
Pete is an incredible person, no doubt about it. The way he views coaching and personal relationships is unique and simply wonderful. IMHO that didn't jive with the results, changes were in order but Pete wasn't willing to make those changes.
After an evening to think about it. I think Kenneth is absolutely right when he points out that likely boiled down to an argument about quarterbacks. Over the years reporting has come out that John was actively trying to find the next generational quarterback. It was reported that he wanted to trade up to get Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Last year the Seahawks were in the position to trade up and get a QB. As Kenneth pointed out, the Seahawks could have, with less long-term pain offered the same or better deal than Carolina ultimately did to Chicago. My belief is Pete likely nixed that deal. Now if JOHN wanted to spend all that draft to take Young - Pete would look extremely smart. But if John wanted CJ Stroud then Seattle has passed on three franchise QBs. CJ is a John kind of QB cause he can throw the ball like very few in the NFL). How things played also backs this up. This is not to say that Pete wasn’t open to taking a quarterback. I suspect that Richardson was Pete’s compromise quarterback. Pete wants to run the ball and running consistently in the NFL requires a running QB. But the Colts took Richardson, and Pete got the player he really wanted. I think the player they got is a future All Pro but that is not going to win a championship.
I was sure they were going to keep Pete, but in hindsight, the signs were there. John wasn’t at the end of the year press conference. Peter King reported about a day before the firing that the Seahawks were trying to move up. I took that speculation, because it just didn’t sound like something Pete would do. But now I think it was what Peter was hearing from others.
I suspect that this began with giving John complete player control and Pete fought back. Over Monday and Tuesday I believe they had the same argument that many of us have had here about going all in for a franchise QB to build around or building a team. Pete competed but he didn’t win, John did. And Kenneth is absolutely right that the Seahawks went from being Pete’s team to being John’s. John went from being one of the least powerful GMs to one of the most powerful. That shape the Seahawks for the foreseeable future.
As an old white guy who loved Pete and his old school style of football- strong, punishing defense combined with balanced offense I’m hoping for something unusual from the Seahawks this time. I hope they find a young, energetic, positive African American coach. The league is dominated by African American players, but very few African American head coaches. Let’s put another crack in that glass ceiling. Maybe Jody can find a woman to add to the coaching team for good measure. Prove that an organization that won with a “fun” coach can also win with someone other than the usual boring white guy.
I know we’re just supposed to care about the wins and losses, but I don’t. I wished for another SB win, but never to trade Pete’s positivity for Bellicheck’s gloomy persona. I want the Hawks to be a franchise that young, talented men want to play for and I think many of those guys would relish the chance to play for an African American coach. Having said that, please not coach Prime!
Has anyone else read The Athletic article about Mike Vrabel's firing? He comes across as an arrogant, irritating mansplainer who wanted full control of the Titans because he "deserved" it. To the extent that the article is accurate, I can't see either Schneider or Jody Allen touching Vrabel with a 10-hundred foot pole.
In John we trust. I think we will come to love this new hire if everything we have heard and know about John is true.
Schneider isn't blameless in the fall to mediocrity by a long shot. He's going to be on a short leash and under a lot of pressure to find a QB.
That’s for sure.
Pete now gets the Grandad Role. Hangs around, tells exciting tales of bravery and heroism, beloved, but noone comes to him for genuine assistance.
John gets to be a true GM at last, and we'll see if all those past rumours were actually true or not. I'm looking forward to seeing how much he cuts loose, or if he's more conservative that we all realised and Pete was a cover.
Geno gets the benefit of an existing deal that isn't back breaking. I don't see him being cut by a new HC, however he should expect a more genuine camp battle and a shorter leash, especially as retaining him for 25 gets a chunk more costly.
No impact on a sale. The sale talk comes because now is when Jody doesn't pay additional fee to the State. There has been zero indication they want to actually sell. It's a low stress ownership and I expect it to run for a few more years - barring illness or major scandal.
Hurtt and Waldron are out, that seems clear. Not saying they'll land the same jobs elsewhere but I'd be astounded (and disappointed) if they remained. I can't see them taking lower assistance roles here.
Here are the dead cap numbers for players with an uncertain future:
Jamal Adams: $20.8M
Tyler Lockett: 19.8M
Geno Smith: 17.4M
Dre'Mont Jones: 13.3M
Quandre Diggs: 10.3M
I can't see the Seahawks using the post June 1 cut for any of these players other than Adams. Because of their ages, Jones would seem like the only candidate for renegotiation.
Still, this may be Schneider's one opportunity to rip off the Band-Aid. My thinking is that Lockett stays, Adams and Diggs are gone no matter what, Geno if Schneider expects to draft a QB, and that Jones gets another shot. What do you think?
Diggs and Dissly get cut unless they take a big pay cut. Geno is too limited , so John brings in a young, mobile QB.The bad drafts in 18, 19 , 20 and 21 that should have provide at least 8 good starters cost Pete his job. Hopefully John won't make the same mistskes..
Geno (31M), Lockett (28M), Adams (27M), and Diggs (22M) combine for an estimated 45% of the 2024 cap. None of them fit into the team’s long-term plans.
Over the last few days, I've been really curious about the draft "hit" rate. Turns out that it isn't very high overall, drops like a rock after about position 10 or 15 and again after about round 3.
The whole question is dominated by "heuristic" measures of "how do you measure 'hit'?" I'm still turning over rocks & throwing lots of salt over my shoulder. Your mileage may vary!
The numbers suggest that very few franchises (if any) consistently mange to "beat the curve", that "scouting" isn't a very objective concept, and that it would often make sense to trade down out of the late first round (after about pick 15 or so) for more picks in the second and third (and maybe the top of the fourth). It also suggests that "best player available" makes more sense in the top half of the first round, and "based on need" might become dominant after about round 2-ish.
Consistently getting two good starters out of every draft, year after year, would be a pretty good achievement. Keeping 100% of them for more than the first contract might also have been pretty special.
Pete made reference to his and John's relationship being a "marriage" several times in his speech. He stood up for John, but it didn't sound like John had his back. I haven't noticed John at the games where he often was on the sidelines before. I wish they didn't feel the need to protect anyone and could come out with exactly what the final straw was. I will always try to figure it out myself if they don't spill it.
For my money, the Steelers game--getting manhandled at home in a game that they just had to win. Other factors:
* 2-4 in the division and noncompetitive in three of the losses
* the Williams trade, because as the season progressed it showed how wrong Carroll’s assessment of the team was
* inability to dominate at home
* inability to win decisively
I will know that the Seahawks have Finally turned the corner if they hire an offensive coach. Not that is in a guarantee of success, but offensive coaches are by their very nature aggressive.
Going up against the Sean McVay‘s, and Kyle Shanahan‘s of the NFL you better be aggressive or you’re going to have your lunch money taken from you.. I wish them well,for the NFL is high stakes poker at its finest.
As clearly evidenced here, I think, I am a JSPC supporter. As a 20yr manager in the hospitality industry and related sales field, I appreciate the organization Pete created and the way he treats people. I always list JSPC with JS first because I believed he was integral in the success and implementation of Pete's system. I am sad for Pete, and will accept nothing less than his successor treating people in the same honest, fair, respectful way, and I'm glad John will oversee the transition. It is his time.
To those ends, I can't see Jim Harbaugh as our coach. I am admittedly concerned with having a likeable good person as HC more so than a previous "winner" to keep our organization as one other players would love to come to. I'd be ok with John Harbaugh, if that shocker could happen. Lol. Also, I think Quinn's lack of success with ATL and inability to build a defense there will preclude him from being the next choice, too.
I am buckled in and excited to see where we go from here, but if Jim Harbaugh is involved, I will be initially quite angry and disappointed. It will take a lot of work for him to win me over. I am fully capable of loving my team and hating my coach, ask Mora.
Keep up the keeping us up, Ken! We'll see where the ride takes us
I am overjoyed that Schneider is giddy-upping. I think that just the fact that the hire has to be able to work with him, as a person and GM, and his level of control bestowed by the organization will naturally land us on a guy with the right stuff. John will look for the right fit and find him. Now, they just have to want the job.
It sounds like Schneider is firmly in the saddle (for some reason). I doubt that Seattle can offer Harbaugh the degree of control that he will demand. Same with Vrabel (and DeBors, for that matter).
I'd like to see Schneider take a good hard look at Brian Flores--there are a lot of reasons to like him--but he's going to hire an OC. I'd bet a Social Security payment that Eric Bienemy and Ben Johnson are at the top of the list. Are there any out there with one previous stint as a head coach? That may be interesting to Schneider as well.
I agree with your take on these coach candidates. Ben Johnson jumps out to me as the guy we'd love to get. He's an outsider, he's young, he's an offensive coach, he won't undermine John Schneider's leadership role (probably). He's everything that Harbaugh and Quinn wouldn't be. He is the perfect combination of talent/potential and lack of actual head coaching experience. This seems like what we should be hoping for rather than a guy who wants to come in and impose his will/culture on the organization from day one. If not Johnson, then someone with a similar portfolio.
In my reply, I should have just said, "yeah, what he ^ said." to yours.
I would be ok with Quinn.... as DC
I promise I'm going to keep track of Ben Johnson. Is he going to be the next Sean McVay or just one more looser thrown to the side of the road? We'll check back in five or nine years.
That's the issue. Probability says that Johnson (or anyone else) will be a lot closer to Josh McDaniels that Sean McVey.
Right. But you never get the next Sean McVay unless you're willing to risk hiring the next Josh McDaniels.
No doubt about it. The chances of winding up with a McDaniels are a lot greater, though.
When Paul Allen hired John Schneider, John was a first time general manager, who had been climbing the corporate ladder under the best in the business in Green Bay. John moved to Seattle to take the promotion to GM - a job that he might have had to wait decades for in Green Bay.
By contrast, Pete came to Seattle with 15 years’ head coaching experience in college and the NFL, multiple championships and a brilliant resume. Pete fell naturally into the senior role, but was wise enough to frame the relationship as a partnership.
Jody/the Trustees aren’t football people. They’re business people. John is both a business person and a football person. Pete is a football person. John is the natural bridge.
It would be typical and prudent corporate governance for Jody/the Trustees to engage in succession planning for all three key employees (President Chuck Arnold, VP/GM John Schneider, VP/HC Pete Carroll). They must have seen Pete Carroll’s retirement on their sooner-rather-than-later horizon some time.
I think the decision to let John hire Pete’s successor was probably made a while back, as was the decision to expand John’s GM portfolio to include oversight of coaching when Pete retired. If you think about it, you can see that the organization has been increasing John’s public profile in preparation for this bigger role.
So, why make a move now?
I don’t think it’s because vocal fans have been calling for Pete’s replacement or because the team didn’t make the playoffs or even because the defense was embarrassingly bad.
I think it’s possible there’s a successor available to hire now that represents a special opportunity for the Seahawks, and they didn’t want to miss out on their next franchise leader for timing reasons.
And I think it’s possible that those closest to Pete realized he was never going to leave the game voluntarily - and it was time for those closest to him to blow the whistle and congratulate him on his incomparable HOF career.
As for Pete’s as yet undefined advisory role, it signifies that the Hawks will be paying him the balance of his existing contract. They have him on retainer, essentially. But more than that, Pete’s persona is woven into the Seahawk brand, and I don’t think Jody/John/the Trust want to diminish that in any way. Maybe Pete will become a Trustee - although I am not convinced he’d enjoy it
What I do think he’d like - love really - is to work on his idea of supporting retired NFL players. He talked about it during the press conference. He’s pitched it to the NFL, but got stonewalled. He’s absolutely right about the unexplored potential for good his idea has - and he’s right about the long term obligations the NFL has to its players. I hope the Hawks will partner with Pete to get this idea off the ground.
Anyone who had to lay off someone begging to stay on will know the pain it causes to both involved. Pete will be working to address that. No doubt.
Absolutely spot on! I loved Pete’s answer about empowering players after their career. I think it’s one of the things that makes him special and I hope the Seahawks find a way to let him model such a program. Doug Baldwin would be a great partner in such an endeavor.
You're right about vocal fans--that is so much howling into a void. Also, great points about how a responsible, successful organization is run at the senior level--fans don't give that much thought, but it's critical.
Even given all of this, Pete Carroll would still be coaching if the defense hadn't declined and if Seattle had been able to build a good offensive line (this dogged Carroll's entire tenure--he never did start an above-average OL). In the end, just too much churning for the same results--a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing, as it were. The last three seasons have also made apparent the great extent to which Russell Wilson carried the team from 2017-2020.
I recognize that many people share your opinion about Russ, the OL, and the declining defense. I don’t.
You are referring to operational details that corporate governance strictly leaves to the corporate officers to manage. There is a division of labor between the top two levels in a corporation. The Board of Trustees (or in this case, The Paul Allen Trust) hire, fire, evaluate, compensate, and contract with the corporate officers. They do not concern themselves with the day to day operational details. Instead, they concern themselves with the long-term survival and prosperity of the corporation itself.
The transition from one top leader (public face, brand icon, culture setter, and keeper of the majority of a corporation’s relationship capital) to the next is a transition that has serious risks. It is only undertaken when there is an urgent need (corporate malfeasance, serious illness), retirement (applies here), gross negligence, or notice that your leader is planning to move on. This has nothing to do with the OL, defense or Russell Wilson.
So we disagree about your second paragraph.
As I stated, the Trust has known for years that Pete’s retirement would need to be managed at some point in the near future. To be clear: his contract runs through ’24, with an option for ‘25. (John’s contract runs through ‘27, which indicates the Trust has planned for John to stay after Pete for some time.) It now looks clear that the Trust didn’t intend to extend Pete to another long-term contract, which means they were on the clock to find his successor.
The Trust also knows that Pete, as a HOF coaching legend, one of one human being, would necessitate a rare individual as successor head coach.
Elevating John Schneider to the top leadership position in Pete’s place is the best of all possible outcomes for this Trust. John will ensure continuity with the Trust, enhance the brand, and preserve relationship capital. Pete made it clear that John’s elevation convinced him to embrace the change. From a corporate governance standpoint, this is as good as it gets.
Many bloggers and posters have argued with me about whether the Trust has contingency succession plans - despite the fact that this is common and necessary practice. (The Trust undoubtedly has succession plans in place for Chuck Arnold and John Schneider, too.) Late yesterday, we learned that Schneider had been updating the contingency plans for Pete over the past 2 months.
It’s possible John Schneider uncovered a candidate he thought was too good to pass up. It’s also possible that the Trust were ready to align the personnel decision process more traditionally, where the GM hires and fires the coach.
Without direct insight into the workings of the Trust, much of what is here phrased as descriptive is actually prescriptive and (in some cases) inferential. A Board of Directors SHOULD be rational. It SHOULD undertake change for the general reasons laid out here...but I've seen too many Boards that ran themselves into the ditch for bad reasons to go along with that notion as "descriptive". It turns out that egos get in the way at all levels of human endeavor.
Especially in the comments section. Except for me, of course, because I am a self-declared Idiot.
As I noted several days ago in another thread here by the Seaside: every manager SHOULD always have a succession plan for their subordinates at all times...you never know when somebody will get hit by a truck...but that notion is honored at least as often in the breach as in the observation.
As for Paul G's second paragraph: if the Fleahawks were still dominant on defense, and the OL could run block worth a hoot (as PC often stated was his philosophy), then PC probably (note the non-assertion of definitive prognostication) would have been allowed to "retire" at the end of his contract period...in part, because it would have been good corporate management to do so. It would have encouraged future hires into an expectation of really good treatment at the hands of the organization.
As for Paul G's notion that the "last three seasons have also made apparent the great extent to which Russell Wilson carried the team from 2017-2020"? Well...the last TWO seasons have exposed a profound uncertainty in that assertion. It might have been that the Seattle coaching staff knew how to use his skill set and abilities to his best advantage. I'm guessing we'll never really know for sure: there are too many degrees of freedom in that model to accurately ascertain the probabilities for the secondary contrasts in that experiment.
P.S. Don't get me wrong...I thought both of your recent comments were outstanding, being both thoughtful and well-framed. I'm glad you weighed in!
Thank you for your valuable feedback about my writing!
Yes, you are absolutely correct that Boards are composed of imperfect humans who are fallible - some are certainly far better than others at the job. I take your note, and will attempt to point out when I am drawing inferences from public information vs when I am drawing on general knowledge/life experience.
(As you noticed, I was trying to shed light on the fundamentals of corporate governance - something I understand a little from past nonprofit board membership and even more from board training. I have also carried a dual title much like Pete and John do, corporate officer + operational responsibility.)
I agree with and appreciate your insight.
In short, I agree.
Excellent comment. Great points in there and I hope you are right!
"But there are a lot of intriguing names on the market, which may have been a catalyst towards Seattle making the decision now and not hesitating when the market could be worse off in 2025."
Exactly. Great point, KenJoe. May well be the big impetus to do so right now rather than later.
So a quick heads up to all who think this is great news. Please look at the track record on team management and operations at the other sports franchise run by Jody Allen and Vulcan.
I fear the Seahawks becoming the Trail Blazers of the NFL. Can’t draft, can’t get decent free agents, can’t get good coaches.
One thing that calms me a bit is that they retained Schneider.
Anyone standing back, especially coaches who wish to win, will observe a tremendously talented group of athletes here pawing at the earth to be cut loose to show what they can do. Unlike the situation in Denver, I can expect any current Coach or coach-wannbe's will be sending resumes to Jody Allen. But I fully expect the decision was made with Pete Carroll fully aware of what was being done. The man is a Master at hiding his intentions and plans. These are honorable and straight-dealing folks. If he said he doesn't know, it is because he asked not to be told. They are experts at avoiding chaotic drama's that always negatively affect the bottom line. I see no reason the formula which brought Carroll to us could easily be repeated with Coach Harbaugh. It appears the drama surrounding his character is as much a fabrication as most news we get from corporate media. Let's recall that all such important decisions will be a huge surprise, as always happens with this outfit. Whatever is coming will be damn exciting, in any event. I don't see my subscription to Seaside Joe will have any opportunity to lapse. Truth is, I will stick around just to keep Ken out of the soup kitchens.
Didn’t want to be told or wanted to come up with a position he could be passionate about and feel certain would be of value to the most people.
I feel like they'll be looking for a head coach who can run his (or her) own staff, but will ultimately answer to John Schneider. The next person won't likely be executive vice president of stuff and things. Is someone like Harbaugh more likely to except a job that gives him full control. I image some other teams out there will be willing to give that (as the Seahawks were 14 years ago).
I was confused by the evolution to advisor statement, but it seems clear now that it's just a gesture. I think they're saying, "we're contractually obligated to pay you anyway, so until you decided what you're going to do next, we'll keep your number handy."
It seems PC was a mix of angry and sad. He will try and land maybe with the chargers or raiders as HC. Who knows; Pete kept saying how young he feels.
I suspect a lot of the terse bad draft picks and trades were at Pete’s choice. Just a gut feeling as John seems to have wanted to makes moves and PC stopped him ( like earlier Wilson trades )
Confused and sad, but I didn’t see angry at all.
Me neither. Pete Carroll doesn't have an angry bone in his body.
Russ may be happy now since he tried to get Jodi to fire Pete a few years back. I hope the new regime doesn't bring him back.
Russ has nothing to gloat about. He’s looking at his own release.
That would be hilarious and finally confirm, once and for all, that the NFL is scripted.
"...the NFL is scripted." This upcoming game with the Lions and Rams comes to mind... (Goff meets Stafford)
The Lions are my playoff crush, and I hope they smoke the Rams!
I've got a hundred on them making the SB (22 to 1)
Good luck!!
New coach = new QB, no question. The first job of a new coach is to be Not Pete, and the easiest way to be Not Pete is find someone else to run the offense. Hurtt is surely gone, and a new coach will likely want to hire his own staff in any case. Waldron might get a look from a new HC, or not, maybe depending on what the HC wants to do with Lock. Is Lock the new Geno as a bridge to a draft pick QB? If so, then maybe keep Waldron, too. If there is a new OC, likely neither Geno nor Lock are back.
I've said a few times before, Geno is under contract and Drew isn't. Drew will sign with a team willing to let him compete to be the starter, as in NOT Seattle, and we have Geno for one more year. We could draft what's his name from Coastal Carolina or somebody else but either way, Geno is the starter next year. I've been wrong before, but that's the way I see it.
This may be Schneider's one opportunity to rip off the dead cap bandage. If they expect to draft a QB, I would think that Geno is gone.
I disagree with this. The Seahawks save $31 million by moving on from Geno. Lock would cost $4 million again and hasn't shown anything yet that would persuade a team to take him to start. Lock uses the middle of the field better than Geno and Is rather see what he does in a rebuilding year than watch a man with no real future play for money that would be better used on retaining Leonard Williams for a few more years.
We know Geno's limits, whereas Lock's are unknown. He may very well hold some big upsides. He'll be a huge proponent for properly prepping a rookie QB. Geno has said he hopes to become a QB coach. Maybe that will happen here.
Keep in mind too, now that John gets to make the personnel decisions, that he was the one who got Lock in the deal with the Broncos. John may want to bring back the cheaper Lock and give him the opportunity to compete with a new guy (draft pick).
Great catch. Hmmm
The way Geno left the press conference showed definite concern for his own future.
I think there's no QB available with a better value than Geno, except in the draft. It would be malpractice to release a competent an inexpensive QB without a better option, and if you look at the free agent QBs, the best of the bunch is probably Lock.
Unless the new coach wants to tank. If he does, I'll hate him from day 1.
Other option is trading Geno. If Canales becomes a head coach somewhere, he may want to get either Geno or Mayfield (or Lock, but not Trask).
It would be like cutting Eric Hipple or Teddy Bridgewater. I just don't see Geno's by-the-book competence as an issue if Schneider wants to go in a different direction. He may never have a freer hand than right now.
Trading Geno is a possibility. I think a new coach can not tank and get rid of Geno.
Maybe we get Canales as HC... or interview him, at least
I agree. Each new coach seems to want their guy.
You never want to be fired for someone else's choice at a key position. If you fail as a HC you want to have given yourself every chance first to make it.
We live in interesting times.
As I mentioned on the other article, I think ownership wanted changes, maybe at QB, OC, or DC, or multiple, and Pete didn't want to make those changes (they have families, etc) so they decided to move on.
Pete is an incredible person, no doubt about it. The way he views coaching and personal relationships is unique and simply wonderful. IMHO that didn't jive with the results, changes were in order but Pete wasn't willing to make those changes.
The 12s sure seemed quiet in our last game...
To be fair to the fans, it was pretty awful watching the Steelers run away with the game.