Peter King's 2022 NFL Mock Draft

Seaside Joe 1147: What we've learned from it and why the answer is "Not much"

Peter King posted a mock draft on Monday and he gave some insights based on things he’s heard around the league leading into Thursday’s main event. Here are some words written by FMIA’s Peter King:

“The best thing I can say about my mock draft: I am cautiously optimistic about hitting my first two picks.”

“There’s a lot of mystery, and will be till Thursday.”

“A record number of teams want to go down. “I’d say 35 to 75 is the hotbed of this draft,” one GM trying to move down from the twenties told me Sunday.”

“Trades near the top of the draft could be limited this year.”

“Surprises? Keep an eye on Atlanta. I can’t predict any bombshells. But a few things would not surprise me.”

“It won’t surprise me if the Niners make Jimmy Garoppolo more available than he’s been. In other words, instead of trying to get a first-round pick for him, maybe considering taking a two for him.”

On wide receivers: “My feeling is the second-rounders, in total, are better. I’m not trying to say any of the top receivers won’t be good pros, although history says at least one won’t be.”

Now here’s something fun for Seaside Joe readers to consider when obsessively reading rumors, narratives, and mock drafts this week: These are sentences that King wrote about the draft… in 2021!

Despite the 2021 and 2022 NFL Draft classes being different in so many ways, little seems to have changed in how this draft can be sold, packaged, and framed—but most importantly, mock drafts, rumors, and narratives are not useful tools as far as being predictive of what will happen on Thursday. King’s 2022 NFL Mock Draft will carry weight (King wrote this week that the Jaguars will make a “surprise” pick at 1) but let’s consider his 2021 NFL Mock draft that came out at this time last year:

• He had the 49ers taking Mac Jones at pick 3 (full disclosure: I was 100-percent with Peter King in this belief. I lost a bet so large that I will never bet on the draft again).

• From picks 8-32, Peter King got 22 of 25 picks incorrect (Correct: Slater to the Chargers, Phillips to the Dolphins, Harris to the Steelers he got right) and yes, he was attempting to mock what teams will do, not what he thought they should do.

• Giants fans would’ve never guessed that New York would pass on both Devonta Smith and Micah Parsons based on what King had heard about their intentions.

And, ya know, more examples…

I don’t want to pick apart Peter King. That’s not my intention here, I am only using King as an example of how the big picture on the draft this week will be so full of errors, holes, an weaknesses that you’d think rumors and narratives were the 2022 quarterback class. You know who has two thumbs, including one forever damaged in a game of dodgeball, and will be wrong about much of what he’s said about the Seattle Seahawks’ intentions on Thursday and Friday?

Seaside Joe.

But I’m doing my best out here to read the tea leaves and so are a few others. All we can ask for from our prognosticators is a little effort and 100-percent honesty. I see the effort. The tough part is wading through the sea of rumors and narratives to find the honesty.

Here’s some of what Peter King wrote about the 2022 NFL Draft on Monday:

• “Expect a surprise, I heard out of Jacksonville recently. Hmmm. That would eliminate Aidan Hutchinson here.” Well, if we eliminate Hutchinson, then won’t that make him a surprise pick again?

  NFL Rumors  @nflrums

  Some front office drama for the #Jaguars Trent Balkee wants to draft Travon Walker and Owner wants Adian Hutchinson.

• “Hutchinson is a different cat. He’s been journaling—hand-writing, not typing—since he was 4.” I demand to see Hutchinson’s handwriting now. It must be impeccable.

• “But what many don’t know is the Giants put Cross through some work to judge whether he’d be a good right-tackle candidate and came away happy that he would be.” What many don’t know is that if you’re the worst team in the NFL, like the Giants could be, you don’t draft a right tackle in the top-five. And that’s the same message I have for the Seahawks in regards to drafting anyone who could be a right tackle and the number nine pick.

• “I don’t know what Carolina will do.” I feel you, Peter. To be fair, you could have written this sentence about all 32 teams.

• “Also, the Giants would love to deal this pick and recoup a 2023 first-round pick and go down, say, 10 to 12 spots so they still could get a strong prospect plus be in prime position in the ’23 first round.” I’ll be shocked if a team can go down from 7 to 17 and add a 2023 first round pick. The “trade value chart” is useless right now and overrated overall. People are always looking for a shortcut with abstract conceptual values like draft picks and offensive lineman value, but shortcuts do not exist.

*13. Seattle Seahawks: Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon *Projected Trade: Texans trade the 13th pick overall and an early third-round pick, 68th overall, to the Seahawks for the 9th selection.

King has the Seahawks trading down four spots, adding a third, and still coming away with Thibodeaux. This would be an unbelievable, Micah Parsons-level win for Seattle. I haven’t heard a single Seahawks fan say they’d be upset if Seattle comes away with Thibodeaux. Not one. There’s a complaint about every prospect except maybe Thibodeaux and Sauce Gardner. I still think Thibodeaux is a top-three pick.

• “If Jordan Davis is here, I bet the Chargers are tempted. Brandon Staley loves very big, very athletic people on his front seven.” I just think that it’s interesting that Staley has “loves” at this point… Staley was a career FCS college assistant until 2017, he was an NFL outside linebackers coach from 2017-2019, he’s spent one year as a defensive coordinator and one year as a head coach. Not even Brandon Staley knows what he loves yet. Mock drafts are about writers making pick for themselves, then trying to find ways to justify it for someone else (GM, head coach, coordinator, owner…) involved with the team.

• “This is what I’d do.” Literally moments earlier Peter had said that this mock was specifically what he thinks the team will do, not what he would do. I’m not picking on Peter, this is what everyone does when they mock. This is what I do when I mock. We are imperfect beings.

• “Raimann is one of the best stories in this draft, by far.” I love Bernhard Raimann’s story. But I think that’s it is fair to say who the fastest players in the draft are “by far.” I don’t think it’s fair to compare stories. What I love about the NFL Draft is that everyone has their own special story of how they made it here.

• “23. Arizona Cardinals: Jermaine Johnson, edge, Florida State” Same day, different Jermaine Johnson reports:

  Jordan Raanan @JordanRaanan

  A player who will go higher Thursday than most seem to expect is FSU edge rusher Jermaine Johnson. Some I spoke with believe he will ultimately be best pass rusher in this draft. Seems to be a Top 10 lock. Maybe even sneaks into Top 5? #nfldraft

• “Shaq Barrett due to be 31 next year” Does this imply that there’s a chance Barrett won’t be 31 next year?

• “This has shades of a late-first-round Penn State riser at edge from last year, Odafe Oweh.” I hate when we do this. There’s no process here. It’s meaningless. It’s no different than saying that the Patriots selecting Bernhard Raimann “feels like when they drafted Sebastian Vollmer” even though that was 13 years ago. There’s no chemistry to that, it’s just pasting a narrative over a pick you like for your own wants.

Notice that I don’t come here to criticize King’s picks. I think it is lame to say that mock drafts are wrong because “Ugh, Trey McBride won’t be a first round pick!” Eh, the whole point is nobody knows shit right now and I don’t fault people for not being to predict the future, or for not going along with popular narratives. I love when mock drafts go against popular narratives! As long as there is an understandable process involved there.

What I do think we can learn from King’s mock is that there’s not always a whole lot of exclusive insight to glean from these exercises, even when you’re Peter King and you’ve been a respected journalist in this field for over 40 years.

So what did we learn from the Football Morning in America mock draft this year? Jimmy Garoppolo could be had for a second round pick. Again.