I think all quarterbacks are overrated as to their importance in winning. The all the teams that are doing well is a strong running game. A good example is the Steelers Wilson was in the trash bin, but he went to a team with a strong running game and a great defense. Guess what? He is back to the old Wilson.
I guess I am old school; builder top defense, get a good offensive line and the best running backs you can get. They are far cheaper than the quarterbacks.
Do you believe San Francisco would be as good as they have been without a strong running game?
Couldn’t agree more. Last line says it all. Who are we going to put into the current offense who will look better than Geno? If Goff or Purdy arrived tomorrow, I don’t think we’d be any better. Which then leads to the question - - $30M+ to keep DK? When we can’t find him open more than 3-4 times a game? Tough job constructing a good offense under the NFL salary cap, especially when the market expects you to drop $70-80M on a QB and WR. Doesn’t make sense.
Don't forget, DK draws double teams and often the opponents #1 shutdown corner if they have one. The Jets do have one, and when DK went out for a couple of plays, it is notable that Sauce Garner started following JSN around. When DK came back in, Sauce followed DK again. In spite of that, DK caught two very nice long gainers. One of them against Sauce Garner, who many believe is the best in the business. One of the reasons Geno can find Lockett in the past, and JSN now, is because of DK.
Agree and slightly disagree in that Tyler was found well before DK and after DK. Tyler length of longevity is likely due to DK but even with DK Tyler was the better receiver.
I'm seeing our Seahawks as the best structured team in the NFL. If JS has the Players bought into his structuring, we may see them making Seattle their Home, willing to offset immediate gain for longer term remuneration. How he does this is his Super Power. There are many subtle ways a financial genius can skin that cat. My bet is EVERYBODY will enjoy playing on a MacD team soon enough. Incorporate Honor and Loyalty into a system where clarity and fairness reigns- knowing when you are in the doghouse, and why. Knowing what needs to be done to work your way out of it or... retire. Take your winnings and the custom stock portfolio and go do what you always wanted. Raise your kids. Love your wife. Enjoy your neighbors and the community you settled into. Do first for yourselves. Fill your own damn potholes on your street. It's an old idea called Civics. The American Dream, hopefully without the permanent limp.
I agree they are well run, but to put JS on a pedastel , I think is very questionable- he has an extreme weakness in regard to the oline which in my opinion is backwards thinking. There is no other unit on offense (overall) other than the QB more important in that units success than the O-line! NONE! You can have all the skill players in the world and if you have a crap O-line it isn't going to work well or at least consistent. The proof is out there! Like on D build the line ( and a very good MLB) and go from there. ( Most builds) I think we have seen for quite a long time now that a consistent O without a good O-line is just that - Inconsistent!
As was the case with the Cardinals and the Jets just now, had them after their bye weeks, in consecutive weeks. Wonder how many average days of rest each team's opponents will have this year??
Yep. That's what I'm seeing. Certainly not fair. So what? No problem. Just win. As simple as scheduling should be, somebody still screwed it up. Welcome to the bloated NFL bureaucracy.
As this relates to the Seahawks, I have a hard time seeing JS go down this path. I don't think he ever wanted to pay RW what he was asking. I also think that JS sees the QB as more of a point guard than a superhero. Regardless of how good Geno has been.
Geno also doesn't have the upside of a Patrick Mahomes type deal that is so long that if the Cap keeps going up, then the deal gets better and better. Due to Geno's age.
For these reasons, I think if the season ended today, he would extend Geno on a similar type of deal to his last. My guess would be $35M-$40M a year with incentives and about $50-$60M guaranteed.
That would still put him below 15th highest paid QBs in the league. Give the team flexibility into the future.
However, if Geno and his agent want north of $50-$60M a year, I think JS would let him hit the market (or trade).
Overall, I have a hard time seeing JS fall into a $50M type of contract with huge dead cap hits if it doesn't work out. Just not really his style.
Really good article. This point really stands out "The best GM in the NFL won’t be the one who tries to copy history, it will be the one who makes it. The one who zigs." because funny, right before I read it, I was thinking of Moneyball. The team that does things differently and figures out how to use their cap dollars in a far more efficient way than most other teams, would have a big advantage. As it is a copycat league, the team would have to have an inventive team to keep ahead of the copycats. This would require 1) good (and patient) ownership 2) a good (doesn't have to be great) coach and 3) an innovative and extraordinary GM, one who hires the right type of people to support the decision making.
Great article SSJ thank you. In particular the insight of value is relevant -- are there more than 3 current QB's or maybe even 10 in the last 20 years, that can justify tieing up 20%+ of a team's cap space? Sure doesn't seem like it, you make great points.
And our own Super Bowl win against the NFL's highest-scoring-ever offense, piloted by a HOF QB, kinda makes the point doesn't it? That defense, and Mr. Marshawn Lynch being paid Seattle's 2nd-highest cap hit (6% of its total cap) running behind an OL occupying 19% of the team's total cap, are why we won that Super Bowl, holding that offense to 8 POINTS!!!!! No offense intended to Russ or to Percy Harvin.
By comparison to that team, Walker III earns .9% of Seattle's 2024 cap and last week's starting OL earns 4% of Seattle's 2024 cap -- kinda says it all, doesn't it...what should we expect?? This has been your point consistently as to Seattle's OL woes, don't expect miracles when your entire starting 5 are being paid half of the % cap that just Russell Okung alone was pulling down in 2013.
Theoretically, Geno's relatively low cap hit should be allowing Seattle to invest more in its OL. Guess the potential condemnation of Schneider is where he's wasted the cap space Geno is giving him (such as dead money on overpaid safeties and Pro Bowl guard pay for Dre'Mont Jones)
I am convinced that John was trying to move Geno at the beginning of the 2024 offseason. There were no takers apparently. After THIS season ends, John is gonna bring in a flamethrower to clear up some serious CAP. I believe John is gonna move on from Geno and DK. Probably Dremont too. Lockett will retire. The new starter will be Howell. In case you all hadn't noticed, John thinks VERY highly of Howell. And I wouldn't be one bit suprised if Lock ends up back here in Seattle since we know John has a soft spot for Drew. My 2 cents.
I believe that getting rid of Geno would be a truly stupid move. At this juncture they need to try and find "the GUY" and let him sit a year and then move on and let the youngster go for it! But they need to fix some holes first if they ever think that most young QB's will succeed. Russ was kind of an anomaly because he had such good wheels and was truly a great deep ball thrower. Which fit exactly into what Pete wanted to do. Run the ball and take several big deep chances on O. The players that came into it ,under the Extreme help of one of the best D's ever just fit! Allot of that was also Pete knowing all the college players of the time , made it easier for Him and JS to get some of those guys that made the team Great!
I like Geno, don't get me wrong. Regarding your comment that they need to find " the guy ", they already have him in Howell. John is VERY high on Howell and purportedly John is a savant when evaluating QBs. Moving on from Geno, DK, Lockett, and Dremont will clear up a lot of CAP and probably net us some draft picks. Howell is only 22 yrs. old and is basically similar to Baker Mayfield but with a better arm. He is also a courageous and fearless leader. In Washington, his teammates loved him. With a young, cheap QB, John and Coach Macdonald can build up the surrounding team with quite a bit of freedom. As far as Russ goes, LOL. Russ's covert narcissism eventually became poisonous to the team on every level. I will not miss him.
Building excellent football teams is hard. I do like that we're further along on the defensive side of the ball, as I think that's a quicker path to success than focusing on a high powered offense, which becomes very expensive to keep together.
I don't have any clue what JS will do at QB over the next few years, but I'm comfortable with Geno at QB for now, and think he would be more than adequate if given a running game and more reliable pass protection. We might see better offensive production by focusing on those two things than stretching for the next great QB, while drafting in the middle of the 1st round again. The team needs to be ready for a young QB, and I don't think we're there yet, which is one of the point SSJ was trying to make I think.
Trevor Lawrence elevating the Jaguars? I'm not sure I'm buying that. Going from a garage sale to a flea market isn't a great upgrade. He's ok, but probably still bottom 3rd of the league, and certainly no better than average, all while pulling in elite QB money. That's an absolute killer.
Very well researched article. A family friend was a pro scout and witnessed the game that vaulted Leaf into the 2nd pick in the draft despite some serious character issues. The Cougars annual rivalry game against the Huskies was played in a snow storm in Spokane and Leaf was throwing pin point passes all over the field, hitting his recievers in the hands 50 yards down field. The pro scouts jaws were ajar. Leaf's arm strength was in a class by themselves. It was later noted that his coaches and team mates despised him. That all goes to show that what matters most In QBs is does he make his team better.
The problem I have with Geno isn't the picks but when they occur, in the red zone at the worst possible time. He is a 500 QB. You don't pay a 500 QB 50 million plus. Tom Brady took a lot less so his teams cap space wasn't compromised.
Once you overpay any player with long term contracts they literally become untradable.
Geno is signed through 25 . That gives JS plenty of time to find a franchise QB.
"Is that why NFL teams — supposedly run by “smart business people who know football"
This is why you see bad teams with good/great players. Owners just want players people are going to pay to come see while coaches want players that are going to fit their philosophy. Obviously coaches want great players too but they have to work with the cards (picks) they're dealt.
When you have an owner and GM/HC that are on the same page is when you see a good team.
From Mike Sando who just posted his QB rankings. Tier 4 “4. Committed And Content, With No Guarantees
We like our QBs and have them signed beyond this season to deals containing little or no more guaranteed money. This gives us more flexibility to consider our options.” Is our own Geno Smith. Coincidentally with Stafford. APY Rank: 19 | QB EPA Rank: 23/40
I remember well the Leaf/Manning debate- I remember telling my brother-in -law that Leaf would melt down! He Did! It was there in college if people paid attention! I would not draft a QB to come in and start year one. The NFL is not College and as we have seen there isn't allot of that that flourish in there first few years right out of college. Sitting a year is better and I'll bet if someone did the math it is there. Secondly, many times when they come in they don't have what they need to succeed ( mainly a good O-line !) Secondly paying a QB that isn't proven ( truly) Big Bucks to me is ridiculous! Build your team ( O-line first) because regardless of all the skill players without the O-line nothing works or works right! Build your O-line / Build your D-line , get two Quality running backs and two decent receivers- then always have two good TE's that can truly block and away you go! Plus you must have a very Good MLB! ALWAYS!
I think all quarterbacks are overrated as to their importance in winning. The all the teams that are doing well is a strong running game. A good example is the Steelers Wilson was in the trash bin, but he went to a team with a strong running game and a great defense. Guess what? He is back to the old Wilson.
I guess I am old school; builder top defense, get a good offensive line and the best running backs you can get. They are far cheaper than the quarterbacks.
Do you believe San Francisco would be as good as they have been without a strong running game?
Great article on a complex subject.
Couldn’t agree more. Last line says it all. Who are we going to put into the current offense who will look better than Geno? If Goff or Purdy arrived tomorrow, I don’t think we’d be any better. Which then leads to the question - - $30M+ to keep DK? When we can’t find him open more than 3-4 times a game? Tough job constructing a good offense under the NFL salary cap, especially when the market expects you to drop $70-80M on a QB and WR. Doesn’t make sense.
Don't forget, DK draws double teams and often the opponents #1 shutdown corner if they have one. The Jets do have one, and when DK went out for a couple of plays, it is notable that Sauce Garner started following JSN around. When DK came back in, Sauce followed DK again. In spite of that, DK caught two very nice long gainers. One of them against Sauce Garner, who many believe is the best in the business. One of the reasons Geno can find Lockett in the past, and JSN now, is because of DK.
Agree and slightly disagree in that Tyler was found well before DK and after DK. Tyler length of longevity is likely due to DK but even with DK Tyler was the better receiver.
I'm seeing our Seahawks as the best structured team in the NFL. If JS has the Players bought into his structuring, we may see them making Seattle their Home, willing to offset immediate gain for longer term remuneration. How he does this is his Super Power. There are many subtle ways a financial genius can skin that cat. My bet is EVERYBODY will enjoy playing on a MacD team soon enough. Incorporate Honor and Loyalty into a system where clarity and fairness reigns- knowing when you are in the doghouse, and why. Knowing what needs to be done to work your way out of it or... retire. Take your winnings and the custom stock portfolio and go do what you always wanted. Raise your kids. Love your wife. Enjoy your neighbors and the community you settled into. Do first for yourselves. Fill your own damn potholes on your street. It's an old idea called Civics. The American Dream, hopefully without the permanent limp.
I agree they are well run, but to put JS on a pedastel , I think is very questionable- he has an extreme weakness in regard to the oline which in my opinion is backwards thinking. There is no other unit on offense (overall) other than the QB more important in that units success than the O-line! NONE! You can have all the skill players in the world and if you have a crap O-line it isn't going to work well or at least consistent. The proof is out there! Like on D build the line ( and a very good MLB) and go from there. ( Most builds) I think we have seen for quite a long time now that a consistent O without a good O-line is just that - Inconsistent!
I just realized we will play Green Bay after they get 10 days rest...
As was the case with the Cardinals and the Jets just now, had them after their bye weeks, in consecutive weeks. Wonder how many average days of rest each team's opponents will have this year??
Yep. That's what I'm seeing. Certainly not fair. So what? No problem. Just win. As simple as scheduling should be, somebody still screwed it up. Welcome to the bloated NFL bureaucracy.
As this relates to the Seahawks, I have a hard time seeing JS go down this path. I don't think he ever wanted to pay RW what he was asking. I also think that JS sees the QB as more of a point guard than a superhero. Regardless of how good Geno has been.
Geno also doesn't have the upside of a Patrick Mahomes type deal that is so long that if the Cap keeps going up, then the deal gets better and better. Due to Geno's age.
For these reasons, I think if the season ended today, he would extend Geno on a similar type of deal to his last. My guess would be $35M-$40M a year with incentives and about $50-$60M guaranteed.
That would still put him below 15th highest paid QBs in the league. Give the team flexibility into the future.
However, if Geno and his agent want north of $50-$60M a year, I think JS would let him hit the market (or trade).
Overall, I have a hard time seeing JS fall into a $50M type of contract with huge dead cap hits if it doesn't work out. Just not really his style.
Amen. I suspect this is Home to Geno. He won't be looking to leave.
An amen from the choir to SJ’s concluding sentence.
Really good article. This point really stands out "The best GM in the NFL won’t be the one who tries to copy history, it will be the one who makes it. The one who zigs." because funny, right before I read it, I was thinking of Moneyball. The team that does things differently and figures out how to use their cap dollars in a far more efficient way than most other teams, would have a big advantage. As it is a copycat league, the team would have to have an inventive team to keep ahead of the copycats. This would require 1) good (and patient) ownership 2) a good (doesn't have to be great) coach and 3) an innovative and extraordinary GM, one who hires the right type of people to support the decision making.
That last paragraph threw me for a loop. Almost O. Henryesque.
Great article SSJ thank you. In particular the insight of value is relevant -- are there more than 3 current QB's or maybe even 10 in the last 20 years, that can justify tieing up 20%+ of a team's cap space? Sure doesn't seem like it, you make great points.
And our own Super Bowl win against the NFL's highest-scoring-ever offense, piloted by a HOF QB, kinda makes the point doesn't it? That defense, and Mr. Marshawn Lynch being paid Seattle's 2nd-highest cap hit (6% of its total cap) running behind an OL occupying 19% of the team's total cap, are why we won that Super Bowl, holding that offense to 8 POINTS!!!!! No offense intended to Russ or to Percy Harvin.
By comparison to that team, Walker III earns .9% of Seattle's 2024 cap and last week's starting OL earns 4% of Seattle's 2024 cap -- kinda says it all, doesn't it...what should we expect?? This has been your point consistently as to Seattle's OL woes, don't expect miracles when your entire starting 5 are being paid half of the % cap that just Russell Okung alone was pulling down in 2013.
Theoretically, Geno's relatively low cap hit should be allowing Seattle to invest more in its OL. Guess the potential condemnation of Schneider is where he's wasted the cap space Geno is giving him (such as dead money on overpaid safeties and Pro Bowl guard pay for Dre'Mont Jones)
I am convinced that John was trying to move Geno at the beginning of the 2024 offseason. There were no takers apparently. After THIS season ends, John is gonna bring in a flamethrower to clear up some serious CAP. I believe John is gonna move on from Geno and DK. Probably Dremont too. Lockett will retire. The new starter will be Howell. In case you all hadn't noticed, John thinks VERY highly of Howell. And I wouldn't be one bit suprised if Lock ends up back here in Seattle since we know John has a soft spot for Drew. My 2 cents.
Thanks for the great article.
Go Hawks
Solid speculations! I love it.
I believe that getting rid of Geno would be a truly stupid move. At this juncture they need to try and find "the GUY" and let him sit a year and then move on and let the youngster go for it! But they need to fix some holes first if they ever think that most young QB's will succeed. Russ was kind of an anomaly because he had such good wheels and was truly a great deep ball thrower. Which fit exactly into what Pete wanted to do. Run the ball and take several big deep chances on O. The players that came into it ,under the Extreme help of one of the best D's ever just fit! Allot of that was also Pete knowing all the college players of the time , made it easier for Him and JS to get some of those guys that made the team Great!
I like Geno, don't get me wrong. Regarding your comment that they need to find " the guy ", they already have him in Howell. John is VERY high on Howell and purportedly John is a savant when evaluating QBs. Moving on from Geno, DK, Lockett, and Dremont will clear up a lot of CAP and probably net us some draft picks. Howell is only 22 yrs. old and is basically similar to Baker Mayfield but with a better arm. He is also a courageous and fearless leader. In Washington, his teammates loved him. With a young, cheap QB, John and Coach Macdonald can build up the surrounding team with quite a bit of freedom. As far as Russ goes, LOL. Russ's covert narcissism eventually became poisonous to the team on every level. I will not miss him.
Building excellent football teams is hard. I do like that we're further along on the defensive side of the ball, as I think that's a quicker path to success than focusing on a high powered offense, which becomes very expensive to keep together.
I don't have any clue what JS will do at QB over the next few years, but I'm comfortable with Geno at QB for now, and think he would be more than adequate if given a running game and more reliable pass protection. We might see better offensive production by focusing on those two things than stretching for the next great QB, while drafting in the middle of the 1st round again. The team needs to be ready for a young QB, and I don't think we're there yet, which is one of the point SSJ was trying to make I think.
Trevor Lawrence elevating the Jaguars? I'm not sure I'm buying that. Going from a garage sale to a flea market isn't a great upgrade. He's ok, but probably still bottom 3rd of the league, and certainly no better than average, all while pulling in elite QB money. That's an absolute killer.
Very well researched article. A family friend was a pro scout and witnessed the game that vaulted Leaf into the 2nd pick in the draft despite some serious character issues. The Cougars annual rivalry game against the Huskies was played in a snow storm in Spokane and Leaf was throwing pin point passes all over the field, hitting his recievers in the hands 50 yards down field. The pro scouts jaws were ajar. Leaf's arm strength was in a class by themselves. It was later noted that his coaches and team mates despised him. That all goes to show that what matters most In QBs is does he make his team better.
The problem I have with Geno isn't the picks but when they occur, in the red zone at the worst possible time. He is a 500 QB. You don't pay a 500 QB 50 million plus. Tom Brady took a lot less so his teams cap space wasn't compromised.
Once you overpay any player with long term contracts they literally become untradable.
Geno is signed through 25 . That gives JS plenty of time to find a franchise QB.
I knew some people that knew Leaf , and hey also told me back in the day he was an ass-H
"Is that why NFL teams — supposedly run by “smart business people who know football"
This is why you see bad teams with good/great players. Owners just want players people are going to pay to come see while coaches want players that are going to fit their philosophy. Obviously coaches want great players too but they have to work with the cards (picks) they're dealt.
When you have an owner and GM/HC that are on the same page is when you see a good team.
From Mike Sando who just posted his QB rankings. Tier 4 “4. Committed And Content, With No Guarantees
We like our QBs and have them signed beyond this season to deals containing little or no more guaranteed money. This gives us more flexibility to consider our options.” Is our own Geno Smith. Coincidentally with Stafford. APY Rank: 19 | QB EPA Rank: 23/40
I remember well the Leaf/Manning debate- I remember telling my brother-in -law that Leaf would melt down! He Did! It was there in college if people paid attention! I would not draft a QB to come in and start year one. The NFL is not College and as we have seen there isn't allot of that that flourish in there first few years right out of college. Sitting a year is better and I'll bet if someone did the math it is there. Secondly, many times when they come in they don't have what they need to succeed ( mainly a good O-line !) Secondly paying a QB that isn't proven ( truly) Big Bucks to me is ridiculous! Build your team ( O-line first) because regardless of all the skill players without the O-line nothing works or works right! Build your O-line / Build your D-line , get two Quality running backs and two decent receivers- then always have two good TE's that can truly block and away you go! Plus you must have a very Good MLB! ALWAYS!