Quarterbacks are overpaid, over-drafted, and underrated

What should the Seahawks do next at quarterback?

For the teams that have been paying attention, the Seahawks did more to break the cycle of overpaid quarterbacks than any other franchise in the NFL. But will John Schneider uphold Seattle’s half-century stance against over-valuing and over-drafting the position when the next opportunity arises, or will he also ignore how much better the Seahawks have been since they didn’t pay Russell Wilson?

There will be times when the best move is paying a quarterback “market value”. There will also be times when the best move is trading up for a quarterback in the first round.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson have all been paid market value and their teams traded up for them in the first round.

Schneider could also be the best-suited GM in the NFL when it comes to identifying who those unique exceptional quarterbacks are, if you believe every John Schneider draft rumor that you’ve ever heard.

But just because something “would be great if…”, it doesn’t mean that the ideal outcome is even a realistic possibility.

Is that why NFL teams — supposedly run by “smart business people who know football” — keep digging themselves into deeper holes involving quarterback contracts? If the Seahawks have any single cap advantage that has helped them lead the NFC West this season, it’s that they don’t have a quarterback on this list:

Is that an advantage that Seattle wants to keep the next time the opportunity to pay a quarterback comes up? How much draft capital should Schneider be willing to wager on a quarterback prospect if he think he’s found the next Aaron Rodgers or Mahomes?

Every week, the Super Joes subscribers send in questions and I post the answers in a newsletter. If you want to upgrade your subscription to be in on future mailbags, you can do so here or click here:

The first question took so long for me to thoroughly answer that I will only be covering this one today—but I will get to the others soon.

zezinhom400:

Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams last year are examples of "can't miss" guys you'd tank for in order to get the #1 pick. Mayfield and Goff maybe not, but still #1 overall picks. Are any of them objectively better than Geno Smith, esp isolating (if you can) the effect of respective OL's.

It's interesting to me to hear you on this, bc arguably Jacksonville has had the sort of opportunities to address the QB position via the draft and FA (as well as other positions) afforded to them by losing. Sometimes you wonder whether Seattle would be better off at 4-13 than 9-8 in order to stock the pantry with high draft picks (QB and otherwise) -- but then you look at the Jags (or the Panthers, or the Bears or or or) and you wonder if that's really the solution

I love all questions that people send into Seaside Joe, but these are things I think about a lot. I’m going to try and stay on track specific to your comments, but I may go on a tangent or two.

Is Trevor Lawrence better than Geno Smith?

We know that “perception is reality”, however we also know you only say “perception is reality” when it’s not and that’s when I really want to dig into the weeds of how much players like Lawrence get hyped up for being above-average because of where they were ranked as prospects and how high they got drafted.

Is Lawrence objectively better than Geno? Maybe not. But I think the Jaguars would be the first to admit that they’re in a whole lot of trouble if Lawrence doesn’t play ten times better next season because they paid $142 million guaranteed for mediocrity and not many thought that would be the case.

Is Jared Goff better than Geno?

Goff is a player I compared to Geno last week, and have noted in the past that you could probably drop Geno into the Lions offense and not miss a beat. As far as Caleb Williams, I don’t consider rookie quarterbacks to even be in the NFL yet, because we just have to close our eyes during a player’s first year most of the time and wait to make judgments.

Is Baker Mayfield better than Geno?

Whether he’s better, worse, or the same, this is the ONLY sweet spot teams should be looking for when acquiring and paying quarterbacks:

Baker Mayfield ranks 18th in QB salary, 18th in total guaranteed money, 18th in fully guaranteed money. His $6.9 million cap hit this season is LESS than JARRETT STIDHAM and ranks 26th overall. Geno ranks 19th in average salary.

Is it by accident then that a not-that-good Buccaneers team is contending for the NFC South title with wins over the Lions, Eagles, and Moons?

How BAD would Tampa Bay be right now if they were paying Mayfield a $45 million cap hit? They would have needed to create at least $30 million in cap space to afford him. And next year, when Baker’s cap hit rises to $35 million, Mayfield will still only rank 14th, while the Cowboys have to bring down Dak Prescott’s $90 million cap hit!!!

Isn’t Baker better than Dak? (The cherry on top for Mayfield is that the Browns owe Deshaun Watson a $73 million cap hit next season, and the Panthers traded two first round picks and D.J. Moore for Bryce Young after they had also given up on him.)

It’s not a talent competition; it’s a NET VALUE competition

But the lesson that a lot of people take from these numbers is that quarterbacks like Baker and Geno should be paid MORE to match their overpaid peers because it’s perceived as unfair, completely ignoring the part about being “overpaid” and hurting their teams chances of competing for the playoffs.

The Seahawks paying Geno Smith a $26 million cap hit this season plays a part in Seattle overachieving and leading the NFC West. Here are the NFL’s best records and the 2024 cap hit for their starting QB:

• 11-1 Lions: Jared Goff, $27.2 million (9th)

• 11-1 Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, $37 million (4th)

• 10-2 Eagles: Jalen Hurts, $13.5 million (16th)

• 10-2 Bills: Josh Allen, $30.3 million (6th)

• 10-2 Vikings: Sam Darnold*, $5 million (31st)

• 9-3 Steelers: Russell Wilson*, $1.2 million (58th)

• 9-3 Packers: Jordan Love, $20.7 million (12th)

*Kirk Cousins, $28.5 million dead money

*Justin Fields, $3.2 million

The only two quarterbacks higher than Goff are Mahomes and Allen, probably 2 of the 3 most individually-important quarterbacks in the NFL next to Lamar Jackson. Then you look at Jackson, maybe a bargain at $32.4 million this season, BUT…

The 8-5 Ravens spend the 5th-most money on quarterbacks.

The 9-3 Steelers spend the 30th-most money on quarterbacks…almost $30 million less than Baltimore.

(I brought this up on Twitter and someone replied “That’s only because the Broncos are paying Wilson.” Sure but of what consequence is that to the topic at hand: The Steelers are benefiting tremendously from Denver’s contractual nightmare and that’s the only point being made.)

If you’re looking for reasons why Pittsburgh is ahead of Baltimore in the AFC North despite the Ravens having a quarterback who could win his THIRD MVP AWARD this season, that’s one of them. Yeah, Lamar is paid fairly for an MVP quarterback, but at what cost?

Jackson was a HISTORIC draft steal at 32nd overall — a quarterback you can’t keep out of Canton if he wins another MVP — and he has a 2-4 career postseason record, has never reached the Super Bowl, and most likely needs to go on the road for all three playoff games if the Ravens are going to make it back for the first time in 12 years.

So they just come back and rebuild stronger next year, right?

Jackson’s upcoming cap hits:

• 2025: $43.6 million

• 2026: $74.6 million

• 2027: $74.6 million

Even after the Ravens lower his cap hits (because they have to), it’s only pushing those commitments into the future and reducing flexibility for moves, acquisitions, and extensions.

So…draft then, right?

“Sometimes you wonder whether Seattle would be better off at 4-13 than 9-8 in order to stock the pantry with high draft picks”

Even more remarkable than teams paying most quarterbacks at least 2-3 times what they’re actually worth is the fact that there’s no historical evidence supporting the idea that “a number QB will lead you to the Super Bowl!” and it all comes back to a former Coug….

The Peyton Manning-Ryan Leaf draft in 1998 literally changed everything.

Prior to ‘98, it actually wasn’t that common to draft a quarterback first overall:

• 6 of the previous 7 #1 picks weren’t QBs

• From 1991-1997 more defensive tackles (Maryland, Wilkinson) went first than QBs (Bledsoe)

• Between ‘91-’97, there were as many RBs (Carter) and WRs (Keyshawn) picked first as there were QBs

Since 1998, 20 of 27 first overall picks have been quarterbacks: 74%.

If teams were truly drafting the best player, instead of the best quarterback, that number would be somewhere in between 20%-50%, on the high-end because teams would probably break a tie by choosing the more valuable position, which is quarterback. Let me know in the comments if you think I’m off the mark:

What I think happened: The Manning vs. Leaf narrative became the biggest story in the history of the NFL Draft. This brought more attention to the draft than anything to ever come before it and it is only logical that the league has been attempting to repeat that narrative ever since, to the point now where owners and GMs completely forgot that it was just a story…And also that Leaf was a horrible disaster.

Or that Manning had a 3-6 playoff record in his first nine seasons with the Colts; if Manning was drafted into a similar situation today, he’d be so overpaid by his fifth season that I’m not sure his team could EVER reach the Super Bowl. He might even be traded before he got to one, similar to Matthew Stafford’s career arc.

But another false narrative: #1 QBs are “bad”

It is worth pointing out that while #1 QBs are overrated and over-drafted, they’re usually GOOD. If you take “Peyton Manning” out of your image of a #1 QB and replace him with Alex Smith, you’re on the right track. You can win with Alex Smith if you have a good team. Most #1 QBs fall in this range and the only major busts would be:

• 1999: Tim Couch, Browns

• 2002: David Carr, Texans

• 2007: JaMarcus Russell, Raiders

• 2015: Jameis Winston, Bucs

Is it any coincidence that the Browns have NEVER been to a Super Bowl, the Texans have never even been to an AFC Championship game, and the Raiders haven’t had a real playoff run in 22 years? Those are terrible franchises, of course they should be associated with terrible number one picks. They played a huge part in their demise!

And Winston went to a Bucs team that had not won a playoff game since 2002, was 6-28 the two years prior to his draft, and he’s still playing nine years later because he’s serviceable, if not occasionally good.

#1 QBs and first round QBs are not typically “bad”, they’re just not as good as most make them out to be.

zezinhom400 also mentioned the best of the best prospects—which I think in the last 20 years would qualify Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Lawrence, and Caleb—and are even these players worth it?

No, they’re not.

Those first three names elevated really bad franchises (the Colts were masquerading as a good team because of Manning and being in an AFC South division of losers) to be better than usual, but here’s the end result:

• Lions had an 0-3 playoff record in 12 years with Stafford

• Colts mopped that bad division for a while, but at best could have only ever gotten lucky in the playoffs if they had avoided the Patriots

• In his only career playoff win, Lawrence had to overcome a 27-0 deficit at home and he threw four interceptions

It is fitting that the best of the three didn’t really want to play football as badly as most NFL players do, and that the most value Stafford ever provided to Detroit was when he got traded for two first round picks and Goff.

Mahomes, Allen, Jackson aren’t just exceptions: THEIR DESTINATIONS ARE

You have to have a team, you can’t just have a quarterback, and that’s why the NFL Draft, though well-intentioned, is also kind of a messed up, backwards situation. Just look at the 3 quarterbacks who have probably done the most to separate themselves from the rest of the league this season:

• Lamar Jackson (Ravens were a good team already, last pick of first round)

• Josh Allen (Bills were a decent team, they traded up for him)

• Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs were a good team, they traded up for him)

Other than the Bengals and Joe Burrow (currently 4-8), when is the last time that a team with the number one pick became a Super Bowl contender because of the player they picked number one?

While you could make arguments for Cam Newton, Luck, Burrow, and Eli Manning, I would take it all the way back to Peyton.

That was 27 years before the next draft and the league is completely different now than it was then. The best GM in the NFL won’t be the one who tries to copy history, it will be the one who makes it. The one who zigs. The one who tells his franchise quarterback, after the player demands “market value”, that he respects it but maybe this franchise isn’t the team that’s going to pay.

The way the Seahawks saw it, the leaguewide dearth of quality offensive linemen meant that the best ones who hit free agency got vastly overpaid, making them a luxury Seattle couldn't afford with Wilson's contract and those of their other stars taking a huge chunk of their cap.

Over Wilson's first three seasons, while he was playing on his rookie contract, the Seahawks ranked between fourth and ninth in percentage of cap dollars spent on their offensive line, according to Roster Management System. In the seven seasons since he signed his first megadeal in 2015, they've ranked in the top 20 once and were among the bottom five three times.

If fans want the Seahawks to have a better offense, which I do think is imperative for Seattle to become a legitimate Super Bowl contender after this season, it is only logical to circle the most important position.

However, maybe the answer is not who you pay, but how you pay, when you pay, and why you pay.

There’s a lot of debate going around about whether or not the Seahawks have the right “Who”…I’m more inclined to focus on the how, when, and why…I think I can tell you the when…

Not now. Not next year. Not until the Seahawks are a lot better suited to adquately support one.

Seaside Joe 2105