Raiders-Geno Smith trade is highly unlikely
3 reasons the Seahawks may not get any trade offers
Pete Carroll is Geno Smith’s biggest fan, so the Raiders became a logical destination for the quarterback when they hired Pete to be their head coach.
It is still improbable that Las Vegas — a team that has multiple rebuild seasons ahead — would trade for Geno just because they hired his biggest fan.
Why the Raiders would want Geno Smith in 2025
The Raiders need a QB
LV’s two main quarterbacks are under contract for next season, but Gardner Minshew is more likely to be released than he is to collect the $12.5 million he’s owed. Aidan O’Connell had a superior season to Minshew and is under contract for two more cheap seasons, but is better suited as a backup. Even on a rebuilding team.
Desmond Ridder is a restricted free agent, so he could be kept at a low cost, but Ridder has played at a practice squad level over the past two seasons.
So the team is “in the market” and they hold the sixth overall pick in a QB class expected to be at least as bad as 2022. In the most simple terms, Pete going to the GM and asking for Geno Smith is logical because Geno could start for the Raiders in Week 1.
The Raiders have a lot of cap space
Money is no object:
The Raiders are projected for the second-most cap room in the NFL ($93 million)
The Raiders are also projected for the second-most “effective” cap room ($86 million)
They will have even cap space more when they release Minshew
In theory, if there was an expensive quarterback on the market who the Raiders wanted to have, they could afford almost any number. For example, Deshaun Watson is owed $46 million guaranteed in 2025; if the Raiders actually wanted Watson (nobody does) and he was healthy (he isn’t) they could do the deal.
Geno is owed a total of $31 million: $16 million as a roster bonus and the rest as his base salary. That’s affordable to Las Vegas.
But they wouldn’t pay it.
Pete likes Geno
Pete Carroll likes Geno more than any other head coach in the NFL, including (in my opinion) Mike Macdonald. Pete wanted Geno to start in 2022 when no other team saw him as a starter. Pete wanted to re-sign Geno in 2023 even though his contract implies that there were not expected to be a lot of competitive offers on the table if he hit free agency.
Fans and media have only talked this much about Geno in the past three years because Pete believed in him. If Pete and only Pete was making the decisions in Las Vegas, it would be logical to connect Geno to the Raiders.
However, there are significant — probably insurmountable — obstacles between the Seahawks and Pete’s desire to hand the reins to Geno Smith as a “bridge quarterback” in Las Vegas.