Sam Darnold's next contract will put Seahawks in toughest QB conundrum yet

In an NFL where more QBs look like "the old Darnold", the older Darnold becomes a unicorn opportunity on the market: What does Seattle do then?

Sam Darnold has two years left on his contract and the Seahawks have had a strict policy to not extend any player with multiple years remaining on his deal, a well-known fact that most national media members don’t seem to know well, including Mike Florio.

Even before Daniel Jones did his deal, Darnold deserved a new contract. He outperformed expectations.

If he had underperformed, the Seahawks would have cut him. That’s an example of the one-way nature of NFL contracts. The team can tear it up if the player doesn’t perform at a high enough level. If the player overshoots the value of the deal, he’s stuck.

Russell Wilson tested the strictness of this policy in 2022 and John Schneider said talk to the Broncos ‘cause the Seahawks ain’t listening. Geno Smith thought it was unfair that Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins were making more money than him so Seattle traded him too and now who’s laughing? Not fans of the Jets or the Falcons or wherever Cousins ends up.

So even if the Seahawks don’t extend Darnold in 2026 they are probably running into another potential stalemate in 2027 but this time there’s a snag that Seattle could plan for but not prevent:

Quarterbacks kind of suck now.

Does that make Darnold more valuable or less valuable in the 2020s?

Usually when people criticize the talent of the NFL there’s far more push back from fans and the media than when there are questions about the morality or the greediness of the league. You can say that Roger Goodell cares more about the bottom line than player safety but for some reason you aren’t allowed to safely say that the players are not as good as they used to be.

It shouldn’t be an opinion anymore: Today’s quarterbacks are worse than they used to be.

Well, those who have been warning fans for the last five years that there’s been a steep decline in the level of quarterback play and a dearth of talent being put into the league from college could unfortunately see their theories proven correct in the next couple of years with that same bottom line:

There’s almost no QB worth extending in 2026.

How often has that happened in a given year?

Before we look ahead, let’s review the recent past of QB contracts:

2023

• Bengals extend Joe Burrow for 5 years, $275 million

• Chargers extend Justin Herbert for 5 years, $262 million

• Ravens extend Lamar Jackson for 5 years, $260 million

• Eagles extend Jalen Hurts for 5 years, $255 million

• Giants sign Daniel Jones for 4 years, $160 million

• Seahawks sign Geno Smith for 3 years, $75 million

• Saints sign Derek Carr for 4 years, $150 million

• Raiders sign Jimmy Garoppolo for 3 years, $72 million

• Bucs sign Baker Mayfield for 1 year, $4 million

• 49ers sign Sam Darnold for 1 year, $4.5 million

Since that extension, the Bengals have not made the playoffs. The Chargers are 0-2 in the playoffs. The Ravens are 2-2 in the playoffs with two wild card wins. So those three teams are a combined 2-4 in the playoffs with Burrow, Herbert, and Lamar.

The Eagles have made the playoffs all three years, including a Super Bowl win, although Philadelphia did exit the postseason with a whimper in wild card losses in 2023 and 2025.

Garoppolo was released after one season, Carr retired, Jones was released before the end of his second season, and Geno was traded after two seasons. The best two contracts were the prove-it deals for Mayfield and Darnold, with Darnold obviously just being a backup that season.

2024

• Cowboys extend Dak Prescott for 4 years, $240 million

• Jaguars extend Trevor Lawrence for 5 years, $275 million

• Packers extend Jordan Love for 4 years, $220 million

• Lions extend Jared Goff for 4 years, $212 million

• Dolphins extend Tua for 4 years, $212 million

• Falcons sign Cousins for 4 years, $180 million

• Bucs extend Mayfield for 3 years, $100 million

• Vikings sign Darnold for 1 year, $10 million

Once again the cheaper deals come out looking like the better deals quarterbacks. Dallas hasn’t won anything with Dak, Green Bay is a regular wild card loser with Love, and T-Law looks far more like a stat-padder than a competent quarterback, plus he had a 60% completion rate last season.

Goff is really same old Goff who got traded by the Rams. Cousins and Tua were so bad that their teams released them to lose cap space.

Even if you argued that Darnold and Baker benefit from being on better teams, that is precisely the argument for not over-paying quarterbacks; but that probably won’t be so much of a problem in 2026-2027 as it has become so apparent that these upcoming classes just aren’t worth it.

2025

• Bills extend Josh Allen for 6 years, $330 million

• 49ers extend Brock Purdy for 5 years, $265 million

• Jets sign Justin Fields for 2 years, $40 million

• Seahawks sign Darnold for 3 years, $100 million

• Giants sign Wilson for 1 year, $10 million

I can be a Josh Allen fan (as I am) and still point to a monumental problem with paying a quarterback that much money. Just look at who Buffalo lost to in the playoffs: A Broncos team, which was finally free of Wilson’s dead money, led by a rookie contract quarterback who is not one-third as good as Allen.

Every time I point out that Bo Nix isn’t yet a beacon of hope for the future of the quarterback position I get some push back, so let me say this:

You can love Nix at $4.2 million (his 2025 salary).

Do you even like Nix at $42 million?

Because that’s Denver’s future if the NFL continues to pay “adequate” like it’s “unequivocal”, just as the Dolphins did for Tua and the Packers did for Love.

Jalen Hurts is coming into $51 million this year. As a Seahawks fan, how does that make you feel?

It makes you feel a little less worried about the Eagles, doesn’t it?

By the way have you noticed a trend already?

• There were four $250 million+ QB deals in 2023

• There were five $200 million+ QB deals in 2024 (none over $250)

• There were only two contracts over $100 million in 2025

• And none so far in 2026

The NFL had 12 QB contracts of $150 million+ from 2023-2024. But only two last year. Just a blip? A glitch? A coincidence? This year would imply that it’s a trend.

2026

• Dolphins sign Malik Willis for 3 years, $67.5 million

• Colts extend Daniel Jones for 2 years, $88 million

• Falcons sign Tua for the vet minimum (a contract loophole)

• Vikings sign Kyler Murray for vet min (loophole)

Think about it:

-Three years ago, the Saints signed Carr for $37.5 million per season and he had recently been benched by the Raiders. The Raiders signed Garoppolo for almost $25 million AAV and he wasn’t starting for the Niners anymore.

-Two years ago, the Falcons gave Cousins $45 million a year and he had just torn his Achilles. Miami was extending mediocrity because they just felt like “that’s what you’re supposed to do”.

-And last year, Seattle scooped up Darnold for a little over $33 million per year.

Cut to this offseason and yes Willis got overpaid (in my opinion) but it does feel like teams are hesitant to screw over their future selves (maybe owner intervention when in the past GMs may have felt like “who cares? i’m going to be fired anyway”) by over going insane on the quarterback market.

Especially when Kyler and Tua cost nothing because their previous teams overpaid them.

But does the QB market stop there?

“Aren’t you forgetting about the upcoming extensions?”

For who? There hasn’t been a lack of big money contracts because teams are just cheaper now. (They’re less cheap than ever.) It’s because the DRAFT has produced fewer near-ready QB prospects than ever before.

You pay QBs 3-5 years after they are drafted so today’s lack of news is because of yesterday’s QB classes lack talent:

• 2021: Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Fields, Mac Jones

• 2022: Kenny Pickett, Willis, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell, Purdy

• 2023: Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis

There were not extensions in 2025 because the 2022 class is historically bad. We knew it then and it’s only more apparent now with Mr. Irrelevant Purdy and now Willis being the only two to have serious jobs.

Then we look at 2023, what we should all know now to be an overrated class and which of those quarterbacks would you give $50 million AAV to:

Extending Stroud would be an even better mistake than Tua. Why? The Texans know about Tua and all these huge contractual errors. How could Houston justifiably repeat that mistake with Stroud coming off of one of the worst playoff performances in NFL history? I also like to point this out:

Stroud has made 46 career regular season starts and he once had a 5-TD game and he once had a 4-TD game. Without those two games, Stroud’s career TD:INT ratio would be 53 TD/25 INT.

TD:INT ratio is an overrated stat, but three years in when does Stroud prove that he can be the quarterback of a top-10 scoring offense?

If the answer is “Next season” then great…the Texans should pay him after next season. And maybe next season the Texans won’t get blown out in the divisional round again.

Do the Panthers pay Bryce Young? No.

Do the Colts trade Richardson? Probably.

Do the Titans release Levis? Maybe.

The most likely extension to come—and probably the biggest mistake of all this year—is Lamar Jackson. The Ravens may need to do something to work around a contract that looks like this:

If that’s hard to read: $84.5 million cap charge in 2027 with $75 million in dead money if released.

The Ravens still shouldn’t even talk to Lamar’s agent (his mother) about an extension this year, but it appears that’s exactly what they’re going to do. I don’t see many other QB contracts impacting the market this offseason, although Mayfield is hitting his contract year a year before Darnold and that could impact his future.

Why are there fewer huge contract extensions? Who deserves it?

• The league average passer rating in 2025 was 91.4

• Of the 18 qualifying QBs over the line, 4 were under 27

• Drake Maye (who was #1), Purdy (who is 26), plus Stroud (#17) and Jaxson Dart (#18)

I’m not even talking about great QB performances last season, but the majority of COMPETENT quarterbacks last season were veterans.

Darnold. Matthew Stafford (who does an annual dance with the Rams where he still has a relatively low cap number). Allen. Dak. Herbert.

You even had quarterbacks like Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, and Jacoby Brissett running circles around Cam Ward, Michael Penix, and J.J. McCarthy, also known as “the signs of impending doom” when it comes to a lack of QB extensions in 2027 and beyond.

The $50 million QBs

I mean, if you have to pay $55-$60 million per season for a good quarterback is it worth it to just go seek out a $30 million quarterback who is adequate?

That’s more than what Seattle did when they traded Russ and let a competition play out between Geno and Drew Lock. It’s essentially what the Seahawks did when they traded Geno and signed Darnold.

So then what’s the next step if Darnold is merely good in 2026 and wants a $260 million contract in 2027?

If history is any indication here then it depends on how far Seattle goes in the playoffs.

The Seahawks did just part ways with a Super Bowl MVP but not-franchising a running back is a different beast than trading a Super Bowl-winning quarterback. Seattle was not afraid of extending Wilson to a monumental contract after the second Super Bowl, or doing it again in 2019 even in spite of not winning a divisional playoff game in the previous four years.

However, those contract numbers were huge but they weren’t necessarily the “5-year, $300 million” variety that Darnold’s agent might ask for in a supply-and-demand QB market:

• Willis got $22m/year and he has NEVER been a regular starter

• Jones got $44m/year and he tore his Achilles

• Lamar is probably asking for over $60m/year

Jackson just posted the first losing season of his career and clearly can’t run the ball like he used to. But he might get that much because now Baltimore feels pot-committed post-free agency and running out of options for who could replace their most popular player.

(Paying players because they’re “popular” is also one of the biggest reasons for why teams making these GIGANTIC mistakes.)

If Darnold was a free agent this year, does it stand to reason that the Cardinals or Jets would have tried to swoop in with an overpay in the range of $55m or more per year? As unreasonable as that sounds financially, it sounds realistic to me.

And I really like Darnold. I have a LOT of great things to say about him. That’s different though than asking if Seattle would struggle to put another Super Bowl-winning team around him if he was making $60 million. Ask Josh Allen.

Teams haven’t overpaid as often recently. But that’s only because there’s a shorter supply, which has created a greater demand.

Leaving Seattle in the trickiest position they’ve ever been in at the QB position before, assuming that Sam Darnold repeats his 2025 season and wants to cash in at the highest amount possible:

• Pay Darnold what he wants and hope for the best

• Trade Darnold to the team that will pay him and hope for the best

This is where preparation meets perspiration: Could Jalen Milroe be the answer with two years of behind-the-scenes development?

Milroe could be the X-factor in this Z/Y equation and nobody knows how realistic that future is right now.

What will the Seahawks do about Darnold?

If Schneider sticks to his policy then this isn’t even a topic until 2027. Unless Darnold tries to “Russ” his hand and push a decision this offseason, Seattle can sit on it and Darnold’s take-home pay will be $27.5 million. Or Schneider feels the situation is so unique that he’s willing to make an exception this time and hope to catch Darnold on a good day when he’ll extend his contract for $45 million per season.

For now, we put in a pin in Darnold.

But if Schneider acts too soon and overpays, then we’ve seen from past mistakes that it could be the team that ends up getting stuck.

Seaside Joe 2565