Sam Darnold questionable, but 49ers face the biggest question about injuries

Will the 49ers be able to attract free agents after this?

The most interesting injury news related to this Saturday’s NFC divisional game is not Sam Darnold’s oblique that has the Seahawks QB listed as questionable (Mike Macdonald told the media on Friday afternoon that he’s optimistic that Darnold will play).

It’s the viral EMF story out of Santa Clara that could have every free agent questioning the 49ers as a team they want to play for at all.

It has occurred to me that it actually doesn’t matter if the power station next to the Niners practice facilities is legitimate or fake news: It only matters if players think it could be legitimate, and you know what? We already know that players think it’s legitimate.

On the Bussin’ with the Boys podcast, former 49ers tight end Delanie Walker said that players have been questioning the power station for years (they’ve been next to it since 1988, a potential clue that it’s not real) and the other players in the panel, especially Clay Matthews, were eager to believe in the conspiracy theory too.

Other former Niners have acknowledged that the proximity of the power station to the practice facility has been an ongoing “joke” on the team for years. In fact, this isn’t even a new story: Chase Senior attempted to make this story go viral in October with credit to former 49ers guard Jon Feliciano, but the post didn’t take off until George Kittle’s Achilles injury on Sunday and virtually the exact same tweet going out from a “scientist”. Feliciano continues to push the narrative that the facility is dangerous to players:

If it wasn’t for the Kittle injury this story would have probably never gained any traction. Now the Niners have to be legitimately concerned that free agents will be raising their prices and their injury guarantees if San Francisco wants their services and that draft prospects will be inquiring with their agents if it’s even safe to play for that team.

The 49ers biggest free agent is Jauan Jennings, the team’s leading receiver other than Christian McCaffrey. Jennings was listed with calf, shoulder, ankle, and rib injuries in 2025. That was just in 2025. He also missed two games last season with a hip injury.

Jennings isn’t a star, but the team loves him and San Francisco is all but certain to part ways with top receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who has not played since tearing his ACL and MCL in 2024.

When the Niners go out on the market looking for a new top receiver in 2026, which they’ll need to do given what I just said and Kittle’s probable start on PUP or IR next season, how many of those free agents and trade targets will be questioning the fact that Aiyuk and Kittle suffered major injuries (and the 49ers also voided Aiyuk’s guarantees), Ricky Pearsall can’t stay on the field either, Christian McCaffrey missed almost all of 2024, and Deebo Samuel was constantly injured prior to being traded?

I mean, you play football. Injuries are not hard to explain.

But these days it seems like nothing is more powerful than a narrative and this is one story that only seems to be getting worse for San Francisco.

Will Sam Darnold miss the game?

Macdonald told the media that he echoes what Darnold said on Thursday, which is that he’s “optimistic that he’s going to play” and that the team is only being hesitant to guarantee it because things can change day-to-day.

To be fair, Macdonald could have been a lot more emphatic of confidence than he was, but I’m just really not that worried about Darnold’s availability because the Seahawks are NOT a quarterback-driven #1 seed.

While the most basic analysts out there are predicting that Seattle’s chances come down to Darnold proving himself in a playoff game, the far more likely reality is that the quarterback doesn’t matter that much. The Seahawks are 1-1 when Darnold throws 4 touchdowns and 2-1 when Darnold throws multiple interceptions. They’re a field goal away from being 3-0!

You could split Darnold’s season in half from being an MVP candidate in the first eight games …

To being one of the bottom-10 QBs in the league (statistically…I’m just saying statistically) in the last nine games and the Seahawks have been MORE successful since the midpoint.

I’m not hating. I like Sam Darnold. He was there in the clutch against the Colts and the Rams.

But in terms of what the Seahawks will need to beat the 49ers, it’s probably not “outstanding quarterback play” and Drew Lock would be a perfect Nick Foles. The Eagles were so cohesive in 2017 that when they had nothing to play for in Week 18 and pulled Foles out of the game early, third-stringer Nate Sudfeld went 19-of-23 passing and the defense held the Cowboys to six points.

(The Eagles lost 6-0, but that was backups against starters.)

Foles went 5-0 as the starter in 2017, including playoffs, and Philadelphia’s defense was not as good as Seattle’s defense is right now. By DVOA, the Seahawks rank 26 spots ahead of San Francisco’s:

The Seahawks were somewhat aggressive in making sure that Drew Lock returned to Seattle in the offseason, signing him to a two-year contract after one season with the Giants. Lock made two starts for the Seahawks in 2023, including one against the 49ers, but those were much different versions of both teams despite only being two years ago.

Lock returned the next week and threw a game-winning touchdown pass against the Eagles. He was able to shake rust off last year with five starts for New York, so while he does have a prolonged absence since starting, it’s not as bad as it could have been.

I really believe that when you look at it in terms of Lock being asked to hand the ball off and throw it 20-25 times without an interception (Lock’s teams are 6-4 in his career when he throws under 30 passes), it’s a relatively simple job for a quarterback. The situation would be much different if Lock was starting for the Bears or the Bills this weekend, but he’s potentially facing a start for the team that literally relies on its quarterback less than any team in the league.

• The Seahawks ranked 29th in pass attempts, fewest of team left in the playoffs.

Seattle had 40 rushing attempts (6 by Darnold) and only 26 pass attempt in their win over the 49ers in Week 18. San Francisco would have to prove that they can stop Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, which doesn’t seem likely for a defense that has allowed 110+ rushing yards in 5 of their last 6, including 180 yards in Week 18.

And that’s just when the Seahawks have the ball.

If you just told me that the Seahawks didn’t have a turnover—which is probably more likely with Darnold than Lock—that alone should make Seattle a heavy favorite. Don’t gift points to the Niners and it’s hard to imagine at what point the Seahawks would need a fourth quarter comeback, which is typically where a $30-$50 million quarterback becomes a need.

I hope Darnold starts. I think that he will start. I don’t think the oblique will be a story we even remember by Saturday night.

But in the event that I’m wrong about Darnold’s availability, it doesn’t really change my expectations.

Are you still just as confident?

The results of Thursday’s surveys show that a) we know that the Seahawks are the better team:

And only about 15% of you shifted your confidence down based on the any given sunday principle:

Has your confidence changed at all based on Darnold’s injury?

Seaside Joe 2510