All QBs regress, Darnold included: Lower your floor, raise your expectations

Can Sam Darnold defy the regression trend for TD-leading QBs? Seahawks aren't banking on it, they just want the status quo

The number of quarterbacks with at least 29 passing touchdowns has gone down in the past two seasons, which is not what you would expect of a league that is allegedly doing everything in its power to increase the statistics and star power of its passers. Sam Darnold was one of the lucky six to hit the mark in 2024, notching 35 touchdowns to his belt in one season with the Vikings, which is a better-than-50-percent increase to his previous career total.

If Darnold fails to replicate that level of success in Seattle this season, people will say its because “the Seahawks aren’t as good as the Vikings” and “Darnold is a one-hit wonder”.

The truth is that either or both of those statements could be true, but there is a far simpler explanation for a regressive season by Darnold than blaming the quarterback or team in isolation:

Quarterbacks who throw 35+ touchdowns in a season do not tend to throw 35+ touchdowns the next year. It’s a lot of touchdowns and the most probable outcome — by far — is that Sam Darnold will not have as good of a statistical season in 2025 as he had in 2024.

Regression doesn’t care if you are Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, or a former draft bust enjoying a career-breakout on your fourth team in your seventh season. It comes for every player and I can prove that regression has been nastier and grimier than EVER during the 17-game season era.

If Darnold is as good or better in 2025 as he was last year, he’ll deserve a raise. If Darnold’s numbers drop a little — or sometimes a lot — he won’t be doing anything that Mahomes or Burrow haven’t done recently.

Here are some illuminating reasons why Seahawks fans should give Darnold the appropriate slack if he’s not on pace to reach 30 touchdowns after the first month or two of the season. Share Seaside Joe with other Seahawks fans if you think they’d enjoy these daily posts about the team in 2025:

QBs with 29+ touchdowns

As I said earlier, touchdown totals have actually been decreasing recently. Here are the number of QBs to throw at least 29 in the past five years:

• 2020: 10 QBs (all had 31+ TD passes)

• 2021: 9 QBs (all had 33+)

• 2022: 6 QBs (only 3 had over 30 TD)

• 2023: 6 QBs (only 3 over 30)

• 2024: 6 QBs (5 over 30)

So from 2020-2021, 19 quarterbacks had a season with at least 31 TD passes, but then only 6 players hit that mark over the next two seasons. For the record, these are the six quarterbacks:

• 2022: Mahomes, 41 TD

• 2022: Burrow, 35 TD

• 2022: Josh Allen, 35 TD

• 2023: Dak Prescott, 36 TD

• 2023: Jordan Love, 32 TD

• 2023: Brock Purdy, 31 TD

Let’s set the Hall of Fame caliber quarterbacks aside for right now. We know that the first three names will be in the MVP conversation at the start of every season, but the three guys from 2023 probably won’t be. What are the seasons on either side like for Dak, Love, and Purdy?

• Prescott: Threw 23 TD/15 INT in 2022 (missed 5 games), 11 TD/8 INT in 2024 (missed 9 games)

• Love: Was the backup in 2022, threw 25 TD/11 INT in 2024 (missed 2 games)

• Purdy: Threw 13 TD/4 INT in 5 starts in 2022 (rookie), threw 20 TD/12 INT in 2024 (missed 2 games)

All three quarterbacks were far worse the next year, including Dak, who was already playing poorly before an injury cost him half of the season. Purdy and Love were at best serviceable quarterbacks. All three QBs could also have great seasons in 2025, as it is well established that a career is like a rollercoaster, not a mountain; you don’t climb, climb, climb and then gradually descend in the other direction.

QBs go up and down, up and down, up and down, then they fall off of a steep cliff.

Three other QBs threw at least 29 touchdowns in 2023 and they were Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, and Allen. We know that Allen won MVP the next season, although he actually threw 28 touchdowns (down 1) and 12 rushing TDs (-3) while decreasing his interceptions from 18 to 6 (-12). Goff posted career-highs in almost every category, including 37 touchdowns, and he finished fifth in MVP voting.

But Tua had 19 touchdowns in 11 starts and has had a decrease in TD% (6.3 to 5.2 to 4.8) and Y/A (8.9 to 8.3 to 7.2) in both of the past two seasons.

So of the 6 TD leaders in 2023 that I mentioned before:

• 4 of them were much worse and/or injured the next year

• Allen won MVP while scoring less often

• Goff got better and was in his fourth season with an offense that kept adding pieces (that hit) every year

These follow-up campaigns from 2023 to 2024 are not a blip or an outlier. And they do not miss MVP caliber quarterbacks, let alone Sam Darnold. Let’s look at a season that hits far closer to Seahawks fans: 2022.

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2022 TD leaders

There were six 29+ TD passers in 2022, about a 33% decrease from the previous two seasons despite the fact that the NFL added a game to the schedule in 2021. (Choosing 29 wasn’t totally abritrary, as I was going for the top-5 leaders and 29 has been a tie for fourth or fifth recently.)

• Patrick Mahomes, 41/12

• Joe Burrow, 35/12

• Josh Allen, 35/14

• Geno Smith, 30/11

• Kirk Cousins, 29/14

• Jared Goff, 29/7

Since winning MVP and the Super Bowl in 2022, Mahomes has averaged 26.5 touchdowns per season, roughly a 36% decrease in scoring. Between 35 TD in 2022 and 43 TD in 2024, Burrow missed 7 games in 2023 and aside from that was also playing his worst football when he was “healthy” enough to start that year. Allen averaged 36 touchdown passes per year from 2020-2022, but that number is down to 28.5 TD in the past two seasons even though he posted a career-best 77.3 QBR in 2024 en route to MVP.

Those are the QBs that we all agree teams are chasing in the NFL Draft every year. What about the other three?

• Even though the team added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2023 and tried an OC change in 2024, Geno’s averaged 20.5 TD in the past two seasons, a 33% decrease from his breakout season

• Cousins missed half of 2023 (although his TD% increased from 4.5 to 5.8) and then completely flamed out with the Falcons in 2024

• We addressed Goff already and maybe some of the advantages he’s had in Detroit, but all due respect yada yada yada

Still, all things totaled we again have 5 out of 6 QBs — including three of the best of the modern era — who did not replicate their scoring success from 2022 to 2023. In a way, it is so concentrated to recent seasons (Mahomes and Burrow were more consistent before) that we have to ask if defenses have made better adjustments recently, if the run game is back, etc…

But whatever the case may be, Seahawks fans and non-Seahawks fans who are watching Sam Darnold have to be cognizant of the fact that a 30% drop in touchdowns would not only be acceptable, it should be expected.

The average rate of TD regression

Here are the average numbers by every quarterback who has thrown at least 29 touchdowns in a season from 2020 to 2023. These are MVP caliber numbers posted by everyone from Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow to Geno, Tua, and Goff.

29+ TD season from 2020-2023:

• Average Touchdowns: 34.6

• Average Interceptions: 11.3

• Average Passing Yards: 4,489

• Average Yards per Pass: 7.7

• Average Passer Rating: 102.2

These are pretty elite numbers and coincidentally very close to the 2024 season by Darnold: 4,319 yards, 35 TD, 12 INT, 7.9 Y/A, 102.5 passer rating.

But for some weird reason — weird because we know this is NOT what happens based on decades of NFL history — there’s an expectation that said quarterbacks should/will post 35 touchdowns and be in the MVP conversation the next year. That’s NOT what happens!

Average Follow-Up for the 29+ QBs (2021-2024):

• Average Touchdowns: 26.7

• Average Interceptions: 10.6

• Average Passing Yards: 4,380

• Average Yards per Pass: 7.4

• Average Passer Rating: 96.9

That is almost a 23% decrease in touchdown passes from one season to the next. We should not be surprised — or even disappointed — if Darnold has 25 touchdown passes in 2025. A 25/12 season would actually be good. Of the 14 occassions when a Seattle QB hit 25 TDs:

• 8 by Russell Wilson

• 2 by Matt Hasselbeck

• 2 by Dave Krieg

• 1 by Warren Moon

• 1 by Geno Smith

Anything over 21 touchdown passes would tie Sam Darnold with Geno for the same number of career 22+ TD seasons with the Seahawks.

Isn’t that sort of ironic, that Darnold could post the exact same numbers in 2025 that Geno had in 2024 (4,320 yards, 21 TD, 15 INT, 7.5 Y/A, 93.2 passer rating) and instead of saying that he maintained the status quo, they’ll say that Darnold “fell off”?

And Darnold has to do this with a brand new offensive coordinator, a new playbook, a new teammate at every position compared to last year, and a new city/home stadium. If Darnold maintains the status quo while costing less guaranteed money than Geno, as the significantly younger player, while allowing Seattle to trade Geno for a third round pick that in a roundabout way allowed them to draft Jalen Milroe, that is a WIN.

I’m not pre-loading excuses for Darnold either. This is not an excuse, this is reality: Regression is REAL.

Anything better than what the Seahawks have produced as an offense in the passing game over the past two seasons, whether that’s 35 touchdowns or 25 touchdowns, is a successful and above-average return from the quarterback(s) in 2025. Anything above 30 touchdowns would be one of the best seasons by a quarterback in franchise HISTORY.

The only Seahawks QB to throw more than 30 touchdowns and fewer than 24 interceptions in a single season (thanks, Dave) is Russell Wilson and he did it five times. Just throwing random numbers out there, a 29 touchdown/14 interception season by Darnold would be really good right now with the caveat that context does matter: Sometimes players are great for five games, okay for five games, and terrible for seven games.

That’s not what we’re looking for either.

But just know that Darnold probably isn’t anymore special than the bulky center of the NFL’s starting QBs (at this point, about half of the league’s starters will either be a Pro Bowler, an All-Pro, a playoff starter, a top-10 finisher in MVP voting, or a Comeback Player of the Year) and he’s not in that very small top tier of quarterbacks either. Even if he was, he would still be due for some regression.

“They” are expecting Darnold to fall off. Make sure “they” know what falling off actually means.

Seaside Joe 2356