Good article Kenneth. You have a good football mind.
November. Sorry fans, 0-3. Unless Lock suddenly GETS the game and gains accuracy, 2nd and 3rd read ability and throws a ton of completions to DK, Tyler and Fant. Don't see this happening.
Another spot on analysis, Kenneth. I'd only add that I was, along with a lot of other Seattle fans, holding my breath during the draft. I'm pretty sure you were too. Thank God Carroll and Schneider didn't blow this year's draft capital. Had they done one of their typical "I'm smarter than you" drafts, we'd be kicking ourselves over the lost opportunity.
That's true but it wouldn't be fair, in my view, to assess their performance based on 20/20 hindsight. Knowing what we know now, it seems they made smart picks. Guys who are good bets to perform well at positions where we clearly need help. That includes Walker.
Blaming them for not seeing into the future with accuracy is like expecting them to be God. No one can do that. I was just concerned, as many fans were, that they'd make picks like in recent years where everyone's scratching their head saying, "Really?" or "Who?"
Jun 6, 2022·edited Jun 7, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe
After a sizzling October that sees the ‘Hawks going 2-3, they get off to great start in November before falling to earth.
@Arizona: As bad as Seattle can look at home against the Cards, they often play decently in Phoenix. The defense rises to the occasion, the Cards continue their recent history of back-half fades, and the ‘Hawks win their second straight game. 1-0/4-5
“@“Tampa Bay: Hopefully, the players get to enjoy a few rounds of German beer. Because that’s all they are going to like about this trip. 1-1/4-6
Las Vegas: The Raiders may have lost to the Bengals in the post-season, but they did get to the playoffs and came close to tying the game. The second in a string of games where we may have to face the fact that the other team is just plain better. 1-2/4-7
Really good explanations on the Russell trade. Seahawks could have ended up like the Patriots when Brady simply didn't extend, went to the Bucs and the Patriots got nothing for him. Brady also left while he was still winning with no indication his abilities were at risk of changing, other than because of his age. (If I'm wrong about that, I welcome a correction.)
I think of the Patriots' loss of Brady as a self inflicted wound. They got used to Brady going easy on them in contract negotiations. He never demanded top dollar, didn't insist on having the kind of contract that resets the field for future QB negotiations.
Here's where things get tricky. Bellichick has a reputation for cutting guys loose too early rather than playing or paying them too long. As an example, he'd not have given Chancellor that third contract. He'd have asked him to sign a one-year deal. The money line would have been the going rate but he'd not have wanted to guarantee future years.
There were times that strategy looked smart. But when it came time to ink Brady to a new contract, he tried the same thing and Brady said "No thanks". This surprised everyone. There never seemed to be any major challenge in the relationship between coach/GM and QB. But Bellichick wasn't willing to alter his strategy and Brady called his bluff, ultimately marring Bellichick's reputation as a genius.
It seemed to come out of nowhere because it didn't have to happen. Tom wanted to end his career where it began. He just wanted a reasonable contract offer, the kind he could get from several other teams. Bellichick chose to let him go. He got nothing because he didn't anticipate this outcome. Another big mistake, though I doubt he'd have wanted to lose even one year of Tom Brady even if the payoff was one or more first round picks.
Thank you. I appreciate the expansion of the topic since I'm still learning how all this works. I was really only focused on the value Russ was to a trade when he's been on the decline vs Brady giving no value to the Patriots because of the way he moved teams. Your analysis of the Patriots being too comfortable, and why, is a piece I hadn't considered. Again, thanks :)
It will be interesting to see how Belichick the GM performs without Brady. My take is that he was good at signing and trading for players who complemented Brady well, but has a middling draft history. FWIW, the Pats last SB win (2018) was also their last post-season win.
Yes, their draft this past year reminded me of recent Seahawks drafts. Like Carroll, Belichick doesn't pay attention to what the "experts" are saying. Both Carroll and Belichick have really benefited from having a great QB. It's a lot easier to be thought a great coach when you have a great QB.
I think Belichick is a great coach. He got the best of the QBs in last year's draft, at least the one with the highest floor, and used him well. But it's not clear if Mac Jones can carry the team long term.
Do-do occurs in both directions and the 'Hawks could win one of the three I suppose (probably AZ) but not two, and certainly not all three. I'm predicting 0-3 in November, 3-8 overall.
"will be an early odds on favorite to have one of the earliest draft picks in 2023." There's a song in Japan many kindergarteners sing called, "I Believe In Future" ... that's what i'm talking about.
I remember Pete's first two years here, where we went 7-9 in both of them. I remember that despite those 7-9 seasons, I could see that the team was getting tougher, faster, better. I had hope. Now, that may have been special "time and place" magic, not to be repeated. But maybe not. I will watch and hope for something similar.
Plus - I will enjoy whatever happens. If they somehow rally to have an unforeseen good record (say, 9-8) it will be exciting to see how they did that. And if they drop to some terrible 3-14 season, then it will make nabbing one of the rookie QBs that much easier.
I saw them play in St Louis during Carroll’s first season. They won the game with TJ at QB. The offense was forgettable, but the defense swarmed and had some big rangy players who could really move (especially #50; KJ Wright had me reaching for my program by the second quarter). I came away thinking that the for the first time, I could see where Pete wanted to go.
November is gonna be a rough month. 1 less football game due to the bye, 1 game basically unwatchable because of how early it is, and tough slate of opponents.
Good article Kenneth. You have a good football mind.
November. Sorry fans, 0-3. Unless Lock suddenly GETS the game and gains accuracy, 2nd and 3rd read ability and throws a ton of completions to DK, Tyler and Fant. Don't see this happening.
Another spot on analysis, Kenneth. I'd only add that I was, along with a lot of other Seattle fans, holding my breath during the draft. I'm pretty sure you were too. Thank God Carroll and Schneider didn't blow this year's draft capital. Had they done one of their typical "I'm smarter than you" drafts, we'd be kicking ourselves over the lost opportunity.
I think you right but we don't know that just yet. None of the draft picks has played a down and haven't proven a thing either positive or negative.
That's true but it wouldn't be fair, in my view, to assess their performance based on 20/20 hindsight. Knowing what we know now, it seems they made smart picks. Guys who are good bets to perform well at positions where we clearly need help. That includes Walker.
Blaming them for not seeing into the future with accuracy is like expecting them to be God. No one can do that. I was just concerned, as many fans were, that they'd make picks like in recent years where everyone's scratching their head saying, "Really?" or "Who?"
We should be rolling pretty good by now. Running hard, hitting the tight ends over the middle, scaring the safeties with occasional deep shots.
I’m really hoping one of these QBs really takes off. Sucking just to get a shot at one of the top picks in next years draft is no guarantee.
I think we win 2 out of 3 in November.
After a sizzling October that sees the ‘Hawks going 2-3, they get off to great start in November before falling to earth.
@Arizona: As bad as Seattle can look at home against the Cards, they often play decently in Phoenix. The defense rises to the occasion, the Cards continue their recent history of back-half fades, and the ‘Hawks win their second straight game. 1-0/4-5
“@“Tampa Bay: Hopefully, the players get to enjoy a few rounds of German beer. Because that’s all they are going to like about this trip. 1-1/4-6
Las Vegas: The Raiders may have lost to the Bengals in the post-season, but they did get to the playoffs and came close to tying the game. The second in a string of games where we may have to face the fact that the other team is just plain better. 1-2/4-7
Really good explanations on the Russell trade. Seahawks could have ended up like the Patriots when Brady simply didn't extend, went to the Bucs and the Patriots got nothing for him. Brady also left while he was still winning with no indication his abilities were at risk of changing, other than because of his age. (If I'm wrong about that, I welcome a correction.)
I think of the Patriots' loss of Brady as a self inflicted wound. They got used to Brady going easy on them in contract negotiations. He never demanded top dollar, didn't insist on having the kind of contract that resets the field for future QB negotiations.
Here's where things get tricky. Bellichick has a reputation for cutting guys loose too early rather than playing or paying them too long. As an example, he'd not have given Chancellor that third contract. He'd have asked him to sign a one-year deal. The money line would have been the going rate but he'd not have wanted to guarantee future years.
There were times that strategy looked smart. But when it came time to ink Brady to a new contract, he tried the same thing and Brady said "No thanks". This surprised everyone. There never seemed to be any major challenge in the relationship between coach/GM and QB. But Bellichick wasn't willing to alter his strategy and Brady called his bluff, ultimately marring Bellichick's reputation as a genius.
It seemed to come out of nowhere because it didn't have to happen. Tom wanted to end his career where it began. He just wanted a reasonable contract offer, the kind he could get from several other teams. Bellichick chose to let him go. He got nothing because he didn't anticipate this outcome. Another big mistake, though I doubt he'd have wanted to lose even one year of Tom Brady even if the payoff was one or more first round picks.
Thank you. I appreciate the expansion of the topic since I'm still learning how all this works. I was really only focused on the value Russ was to a trade when he's been on the decline vs Brady giving no value to the Patriots because of the way he moved teams. Your analysis of the Patriots being too comfortable, and why, is a piece I hadn't considered. Again, thanks :)
It will be interesting to see how Belichick the GM performs without Brady. My take is that he was good at signing and trading for players who complemented Brady well, but has a middling draft history. FWIW, the Pats last SB win (2018) was also their last post-season win.
Yes, their draft this past year reminded me of recent Seahawks drafts. Like Carroll, Belichick doesn't pay attention to what the "experts" are saying. Both Carroll and Belichick have really benefited from having a great QB. It's a lot easier to be thought a great coach when you have a great QB.
I think Belichick is a great coach. He got the best of the QBs in last year's draft, at least the one with the highest floor, and used him well. But it's not clear if Mac Jones can carry the team long term.
Do-do occurs in both directions and the 'Hawks could win one of the three I suppose (probably AZ) but not two, and certainly not all three. I'm predicting 0-3 in November, 3-8 overall.
"will be an early odds on favorite to have one of the earliest draft picks in 2023." There's a song in Japan many kindergarteners sing called, "I Believe In Future" ... that's what i'm talking about.
I am serene for this season.
I remember Pete's first two years here, where we went 7-9 in both of them. I remember that despite those 7-9 seasons, I could see that the team was getting tougher, faster, better. I had hope. Now, that may have been special "time and place" magic, not to be repeated. But maybe not. I will watch and hope for something similar.
Plus - I will enjoy whatever happens. If they somehow rally to have an unforeseen good record (say, 9-8) it will be exciting to see how they did that. And if they drop to some terrible 3-14 season, then it will make nabbing one of the rookie QBs that much easier.
So - a serene season for me, anyways.
I saw them play in St Louis during Carroll’s first season. They won the game with TJ at QB. The offense was forgettable, but the defense swarmed and had some big rangy players who could really move (especially #50; KJ Wright had me reaching for my program by the second quarter). I came away thinking that the for the first time, I could see where Pete wanted to go.
November is gonna be a rough month. 1 less football game due to the bye, 1 game basically unwatchable because of how early it is, and tough slate of opponents.
Must not have kids, because 630am is a normal wake up, and I work till 1am! I'll try a mimosa!
This newsletter is a true hidden gem of Seattle sports coverage! There you go. Just trying to get you from tens to hundreds.