Seahawks 2023 draft re-visit

How Devon Witherspoon, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Seahawks other picks are looking in comparison to their peers so far: Seaside Joe 1753

This week, we found out that Seaside Clark is 50% Yorkshire Terrier, 40% Pomeranian, and 10% Volpino Italiano. In other words, he’s a college student who is finding himself by backpacking around Europe.

That’s a little bit of background on where this pup came from, which leads me into an exploration of where the Seahawks pups originated and re-living those decisions as Seattle sits in between games against the teams that picked Jalen Carter and Will Levis; two heavily-discussed prospects prior to the 2023 draft.

And speaking of origin stories, I turn 41 today. So for anyone who was waiting out for a special occasion to join the Regular Joes premium club, I’ll run a one-time Birthday offer today: $11 off the annual subscription.

Yes, I’ll work birthdays, Christmas, Thanksgiving, New Year’s, 4ths, and all the eves. No days off at Seaside Joe.

Seahawks 2023 Draft

Top-5

The question people will ask for now is whether or not teams will regret not trading up for C.J. Stroud because the Chicago Bears were willing to trade the number one pick, which they eventually did do with the Carolina Panthers. Stroud’s most recent game was the worst of his season, both statistically and because he suffered a concussion that is causing him to miss time, but he remains one of the top quarterbacks of the league this year.

In fact, Stroud’s 1.1% rate of interceptions is the lowest in the NFL (20 TD:5 INT), his 8.2 Y/A is third-best, and the Texans are 7-6 with him as the starter after only winning three games in 2022.

So after Pete Carroll’s entire wrecking crew made a big show of meeting with Stroud and the other top quarterback prospects, will the Seahawks regret not pushing all-in for a trade to go up and get him? Their only real excuse is that they did not want to give up whatever it is that the Bears wanted, which tells me that Seattle’s front office didn’t believe that a transcendent quarterback was available in this year’s draft.

They could still be right about that.

I speculated at the start of the season that the Seahawks may have needed to give up pick 5 (obviously) in addition to a 2023 second, a 2024 first and second, and a 2025 second and third, plus Noah Fant. I know Seattle also had pick 20, but I tried to push that back to soften the blow on Seahawks fans.

If Seattle had done that, and if they had actually wanted Stroud over Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson, they would have a quarterback and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but they wouldn’t have Zach Charbonnet or their first two picks next year, or day two picks the year after that, or Fant. They also probably wouldn’t have Leonard Williams.

The Seahawks could have the same 7-7 record that they have right now (if not worse) and a depleted future without draft picks. Just look at the Panthers: They have Young, but they’re probably going to be losing the first overall pick in 2024 because of that deal. At best, it’s gonna be a top-3 pick.

Even knowing what we know of Stroud, and he’s been super impressive, I’m not close to thinking that the Seahawks blew a chance to get a franchise quarterback.

Not to blow one game out of proportion, but is it a coincidence that Stroud’s worst performance came after another rookie—third round receiver Tank Dell—went on injured reserve? Dell has also been phenomenal and he could be doing a lot to raise Stroud’s stock. It’s been a great rookie class for Houston, including another Seattle favorite who went in the top-3, Will Anderson, but I think the Seahawks have so far proven to have made the right decision at pick 5 with Devon Witherspoon.

The Jalen Carter thing

I wrote about Tyree Wilson before the draft and came to the conclusion that I didn’t like those mocks. Wilson’s been the worst top-10 pick thus far. I wrote about Bijan Robinson before the draft and could understand the excitement over adding another running back, which the Seahawks did do in the second round. So far, Zach Charbonnet is having a comparable season to Bijan, just with less volume. In fact, Charbonnet has nine broken tackles on 99 runs, compared to 10 broken tackles on 176 runs.

I wrote about Jalen Carter extensively before the draft (including a showdown against Rob Staton’s prediction that Seattle would pick Will Levis, while I said Levis wouldn’t even be a first round pick) and ultimately came to the conclusion that while Carter would go in the top-10 (Staton had said for over a year prior to the draft that Carter wouldn’t be a first round pick), nobody could know for sure which team would be the first to decide that his on-field out-weighed his off-field. Eventually, I decided that the Seahawks would draft Witherspoon because he had all the physical and mental traits Pete wants in a player but without any baggage.

Witherspoon only had the 8th-best odds of being Seattle’s pick going into the first round, but I felt he was the guy who you measure all the other prospects against. “Well, why am I going to take a chance on Carter when I can get the most intense and the most physical player in the draft who also plays a position we need?”

There’s been a lot made of Carter’s rookie season, and for good reason. His seven tackles for a loss, playing only 50% of the snaps, is the same as Leonard Williams, Aidan Hutchinson, Javon Hargrave, Jadeveon Clowney, Jarran Reed, and Chase Young among others. He has five sacks, a fumble recovery touchdown, and he’s only 22.

But the best comparison to be made is this:

Did any of us watch the game on Monday and feel regret that the Seahawks passed on Jalen Carter, even with Devon Witherspoon not physically able to play?

I don’t have regrets.

It’s early in their careers to judge, but so far both players are good on the field already and we’ll have to re-visit again every year until there’s an obvious winner.

Another comparison is Witherspoon against the other two first round cornerbacks, Emmanuel Forbes and Christian Gonzalez. Forbes went 16th to Washington and he’s been benched for poor play. The Patriots took Gonzalez next and though he was playing at a high level, he suffered a torn labrum and dislocated shoulder just days after winning September’s Defensive Rookie of the Month award.

The other notable player between Witherspoon and Seattle’s next pick is Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs. He leads the NFL with 5.7 yards per carry and has a total of 1,088 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns in 12 games.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads off run on receivers

I decided not to make a prediction on Seattle’s second pick, but did say that receiver would be one of the top considerations and then I would have flipped a coin between JSN and Zay Flowers.

Though Smith-Njigba is only ninth among rookies in receiving yards (541) and catches (53), he’s been making up ground from a slow start. I also don’t see any reason to panic, like I would be if the Seahawks had picked Quentin Johnston.

I hope that picture is readable, but I’ll tell you the order if not:

Puka Nacua, Rams: 87/1,163/4

Jordan Addison, Vikings: 62/824/9

Sam LaPorta, Lions: 71/758/9

Rashee Rice, Chiefs: 68/754/7

Tank Dell, Texans: 47/709/7

Zay Flowers, Ravens: 65/680/3

Josh Downs, Colts: 57/631/2

Jayden Reed, Packers: 54/592/6

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks: 53/541/3

Dalton Kincaid, Bills: 61/495/2

The “big oopsie” is Nacua, the last pick of the fifth round and a legitimate star in the making who isn’t just riding a good scheme fit. He’s the real deal. He’s also not someone who the Seahawks should have drafted instead of JSN because he went so late.

LaPorta is already a top-5 tight end. If the Seahawks were to be so bold as to pick a tight end, and if they had chosen LaPorta instead of one of the others, that would be interesting to see in this offense.

Addison will likely get over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, even with Kirk Cousins missing half of the season. Still, Smith-Njigba has proven himself, he’s 21, and I do not doubt that the breakout is inevitable. Whereas Johnston is the number two receiver on an offense with Justin Herbert and he’s just not good.

Of all the picks in the first round to come after JSN, none stand out yet except Addison and Flowers, to some degree. But not enough to think that the Seahawks made the wrong decision.

Round 2

37. OLB Derick Hall

52. RB Zach Charbonnet

The Seahawks pick Hall after Levis, LaPorta, TE Michael Mayer, and G Steve Avila. I haven’t seen anything from Levis yet that would make me believe he “proved the haters wrong”. It seems Seattle will probably face Ryan Tannehill or Malik Willis this week.

Between Hall and Charbonnet, no one stands out much except the aforementioned Reed. Brian Branch would be a good piece to have in the secondary, but it was better to go for an edge rusher than a safety/nickel, especially after picking Witherspoon. Any player could theoretically “help” but since none of these players are standouts yet, it eases any tension over the fact that Derick Hall hasn’t recorded his first sack yet. We expected as much, as Hall is a project for a long-term vision.

Charbonnet was the third running back selected and he’s fourth in rushign yards even though he’s Ken Walker’s backup. If running backs are so “plug and play” then why don’t they plug and play? The top two rookie running backs are Robinson and Gibbs, the first rounders, and third is Miami’s De’Von Achane, a third round pick in an great situation for his speed. We haven’t seen a single team that picked a running back outside of the first round and made him a starter this year. Bit weird, idn’t it?

The 2022 draft pick with the most rushing yards is Walker (1,770 total), the second running back selected.

Of the players drafted after Charbonnet in the second round, the one standing out recently is Rashee Rice. He has 32 catches for 334 yards in the last four games, but being Patrick Mahomes’ default number one receiver doesn’t hurt.

Overall, there’s nothing bad to say about Seattle’s two second round decisions. While Hall doesn’t have a huge role yet and Charbonnet is a complementary addition, there aren’t any obvious miscalculations that I can see and it is fair to say that Hall and Charbonnet could add a lot of value to the Seahawks in 2024-2026 on their rookie deals.

Day 3

Of the Seahawks six day three picks, the only one getting extensive playing time is fourth round guard Anthony Bradford and he does look like he has the potential to be a steal. If not at least an upgrade to Phil Haynes. The Seahawks have been a much better rushing team with Bradford on the field and I’m honestly not sure how much of that is a coincidence, but he was known to be a run mauler when coming into the league out of LSU.

Though the sample size is a tiny 58 snaps, it’s interesting that the number one OL combination in the NFL this year in EPA is one of Seattle’s: Charles Cross-Damien Lewis-Evan Brown-Anthony Bradford-Jason Peters.

Assuming that Abe Lucas is an upgrade to Peters, that’s encouraging news.

The Seahawks have been better all year when Bradford is in the game vs. when he’s not. So I think that Haynes will finally leave for good and Bradford will take over at right guard permanently in 2024. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have to decide how good they could have it with Olusegun Oluwatimi, because Brown is a 2024 free agent. It could be better to re-sign Brown and Lewis, keep Olu as the backup, give yourself as many options as possible.

Cameron Young has played 16% of the snaps. Mike Morris has missed most of the season and won’t be seen again until next year. Jerrick Reed was almost exclusively used on special teams and is on IR. Kenny McIntosh was recently activated from IR and is only used on special teams.

Jake Bobo out-classes everyone here except Bradford. The undrafted free agent has only been tarrgeted nine times in the last eight games, but he’s caught eight of those for 63 yards and scored a rushing touchdown. Bobo is a regular on special teams. Longsnapper Chris Stoll is a viable candidate for the Pro Bowl.

Ranking the rookies (based on 2023 value)

Devon Witherspoon

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Anthony Bradford

Zach Charbonnet

Jake Bobo

Derick Hall

Cameron Young

Brady Russell (third in special teams snaps)

Chris Stoll

Olu Olu

Jerrick Reed

What are your thoughts on the Seahawks rookie draft class so far? Or Clark’s breed? If you want to get a birthday special or just a regular subscription, click either of these and thanks!