Seahawks 2023 free agents: Who Stays, Who Goes following their breakout seasons?
Seahawks 2023 free agents: Who Stays, Who Goes following their breakout seasons?
Calculating Seattle's cap room next year and assessing who the Seahawks can keep: Seaside Joe 1344
Money. I’ve been staring at the word for the last five minutes and all I can think about now is how ridiculous of a name that is for something so centrally important to everybody in the world. Speaking as someone who grew up as a “Kenny,” I’m well aware of the infanilization of all things that end in a “-y” sound.
Goofy. Silly. Funny. Money.
Ronnie. Bobby. Ricky. Mike.
I’ve always kind of sided with a reality in which bartering was the main source of exchange for goods and services, but that isn’t the society that we live in. Instead of trade, I accept cold hard cash.
The Seahawks recently came into a lot of money themselves. More accurately, Seattle freed up a ton of spending power by trading their most expensive player to a place where he could finally own the most expensive house in the entire city*.
*Russell couldn’t have done that in Seattle, where the priciest residential house is three times as expensive as his Denver pad, probably because it was once owned by another former (and current) Kenny… Kenny G.
Having avoided a $50 million per year contract for Russell W, the Seahawks are now the proud owners of $53.782 million in estimated 2023 cap space (we don’t know the true 2023 salary cap yet) and $33.122 million in EFFECTIVE cap space, which is more accurate to reality.
The effective cap space takes into account how many players are actually signed to the roster for next season (in Seattle’s case, 33, tied for the second-fewest in the NFL) and estimates the average cost to pay the remaining number of spots for the 53 and practice squad.
Because $53 million sounds like a lot (5th-most right now) but $33 million doesn’t have the same ring to it (still the 7th-most).
The Seahawks are in a weird but favorable scenario in which a lot of players who looked like they could be expendable next year have now become vital to the present and future success of the franchise. Including a quarterback, but hopefully not someone who needs “Kenny G money” to be happy.
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2023 Seahawks Free Agents
QB Geno Smith - Stays
From an easy “let him walk” to a difficult “can’t let him go” in barely two months of regular season work. I wrote about Geno making football fun again in a Seaside Joe bonus post this morning. Previous bonus posts include naming Geno as the best QB move of 2022 and a reasonable contract proposal to give Geno right now.
The basic idea: Guarantee Geno Smith exactly what he would get on the 2023 franchise tag (about $31 million) and give him some reassurance for 2024. But not too much to not have a potential way out after next season, if the worst happens. It is probably too late for contract extensions during the season, however, so “What will Geno make?” is not something that I think anyone can reasonably answer until we find out how this Cinderella story ends.
But Seattle probably has to set aside $30 million for Geno Smith. Unless they come to a long-term contract agreement, in which case the first-year cap hit is probably going to be relatively low, maybe less than $20 million.
That’s a big chunk of what the Seahawks actually have to spend ($33.1) and there are many names left to go over.
C Austin Blythe - Goes
There’s a lot of love for Austin Blythe, because there’s a lot of love for basically all Seahawks right now. He’s also Geno’s center and that’s going to make it hard for him to go without a fight. I’m just not sure the money is there for a team that has consistently parted with centers when they wanted more money. Blythe has a $4 million cap hit this year, he may be able to get more on the market now, and center seems like a position to address in the draft.
QB Drew Lock - Stays
It’s the best case scenario that I can think of for Lock if he spends the whole season on the bench. I can’t imagine that a team is opening up a QB competition to Lock next year and he is witnessing Geno Smith go from Seattle backup to bonafide star thanks to spending a long time in one system.
It is also the best case scenario for Seattle, as the Seahawks should want a backup behind Geno Smith who they don’t have to start all over with as far as teaching. I think Lock could be had for $2-3 million.
RB Rashaad Penny - Goes
I’m not giving you predictions based on what I would do, but based on what I think is the most realistic outcome right now. Penny would be returning to a situation where Kenneth Walker is now the starter. I believe there are other NFL teams out there ready to hand the ball to Penny, even if he’s got an extensive and troublesome injury history. It’s hard for Seattle to compete with teams that will have a clear path to being RB1. Their best sell to keep Penny is that they know each other so well.
DL Poona Ford - Stays
The financials will be difficult to make work. Ford is the Seahawks highest-paid player (by cap number) this season and I believe his position is one that should be addressed in the draft. But I don’t think the Seattle-Poona love affair is on track to end next year.
DL L.J. Collier - Goes
A situation could arise where Collier is inexpensive and wants to stay in Seattle to finish what the Seahawks tried to start by picking him in the first round in 2019. That’s not outlandish. But if Collier gets a little bit of interest around the league and the price goes up, Pete Carroll has to know when to say “No” and to address the position in the draft again.
ILB Cody Barton - Goes
I find this to be the most difficult contract projection on the entire team. Maybe Barton falls into the $5 million APY range of Christian Kirksey and Josey Jewell. Maybe he gets $8 million APY like Myles Jack. Does he get $10.3 million APY like Matt Milano? Anything above the $5 million seems to push Barton out of town in favor of a draft pick, given all of Seattle’s other roster needs and priorities.
K Jason Myers - Stays
It’s very tough to want to keep any kicker because right now the going rate for a good one is between $4-$6 million per year. Well, we know that Justin Tucker is on a pedastal by himself at $6 million. But it’s fair to say that Myers could attract a four-year, $20 million deal if he hits the open market. Myers is 18-of-19 on FG and 25-of-26 on PAT.
G Phil Haynes - Stays
Because the Seahawks will look to part ways with Gabe Jackson and use that money to keep Haynes. But Seattle could definitely choose to draft a guard in the first two rounds and hope he’s as good of a pick as Charles Cross and Abe Lucas.
RB Travis Homer - Goes
I think he prices himself into a different situation, but I think the Seahawks would like to keep him if they can.
ST Nick Bellore - Stays
One of my other big mistakes this year was underestimating Pete Carroll’s belief in the Seahawks as a contender and overvaluing salary cap space that would come by releasing veterans like Bellore, who would only make sense on the roster if a team felt they could go all the way. It’s just strange to pay a special teamer $2 million unless the team is like, “He could push the needle for us in just one game and that could be the difference in making the playoffs.” Bellore and Pete proved me wrong and Carroll hypes up his special teams captain time and time again.
S Josh Jones - Goes
I think the Seahawks could address safety with an early draft pick.
OLB Bruce Irvin - Retires
I’m just playing the odds here, but would not at all mind a return for Irvin at age 36.
OLB Darryl Johnson, Jr. - Stays
The Seahawks will get Johnson back from IR this season and we’ll see how the rotation uses him after that. It seems like he’s ahead of Darrell Taylor, so I have to assume Seattle has a long-term plan with Johnson and that the two sides are best when working together. Pete has found some amazing gems along the defensive line in his career. Will Johnson be next?
Other Unrestricted FA: CB Justin Coleman (Goes), WR Marquise Goodwin (Goes), CB Artie Burns (Goes), C Kyle Fuller (Goes), LS Tyler Ott (Stays), LS Carson Tinker (Goes), DB Teez Tabor (Stays), LB Cullen Gillaspia (Stays), LB Ben Burr-Kirven (Stays)
S Ryan Neal (RFA)
CB Mike Jackson (RFA)
WR Penny Hart (RFA)
LB Tanner Muse (RFA)
Exclusive Rights FA: Jon Rhattigan, Cody Thompson, Myles Adams, Tony Jones
Next, the Seahawks have to give money to Neal and Jackson, which won’t be that cheap. A first round tender for Neal or Jackson would be $6 million, followed by $4.3 million for a second round tender, and $2.6 million for an original round tender. There’s a chance that both would get the second round tender, meaning that they cost $8.6 million! That’s so much unless Seattle comes to a long-term agreement. If the Seahawks give the second round tender and a different team signs the player, then Seattle gets draft pick compensation like a second rounder.
I think Jackson is probably the priority between the two, but Neal is coming on super hot these last few weeks. Myles Adams would still cost under $1 million on the ERFA tender.
Savings
The Seahawks might need to make room on the salary cap to keep all of these players. As I alluded to earlier, cutting Gabe Jackson saves $6.5 million. Since he and Haynes are rotating in and out of the game already, Seattle just needs to choose one of them. It doesn’t seem like it would be Jackson.
Cutting Shelby Harris would save $9 million, including a $2.5 million roster bonus due at the start of the league year in March. I support Shelby Harris as a player and a member of the team, but that’s a lot of money to save for the role that he has on the defense. That being said, he could be the fuel to the fire.
The Seahawks could extend Uchenna Nwosu to bring down his $12.76 million cap hit next season, although not without the cost of a huge new contract. Seattle could also save over $6 million each by restructuring Jamal Adams and/or Quandre Diggs, but not without the cost of making them even harder to part with in 2024, if they had to. It would raise their cap hits in 2024 and make them cost over $43 million combined. The Seahawks could also save up to $5 million by restucturing Tyler Lockett, with $2.2 million if they restructure Will Dissly.
It’s hard to figure out the puzzle that will keep all of the Seahawks’ breakout players from leaving or being traded/released to make room, but that’s a much better problem to solve than the one that we thought Pete Carroll would be dealing with right now.
It is just way too early for this--too many things can have an impact before the end of the season including injuries unfortunately. Trades and contract restructuring can have a big impact on available cap space also. I don't even pretend to understand it but the Seahawks have never been jammed up like (say) the Saints have been when they kept deferring cap problems down the road. The Seahawks are in decent shape now and they will figure it out at the end of the year.
Otoh, how would we like to be AZ tied to Kyler Murray's extension? Or, even worse, the Broncos with $165 guaranteed to Russ?
GOES
-Poona is going to be difficult but if one of our top four picks is a defensive tackle it's bye-bye Poona because that's how the NFL works.
-Barton - He can be replaced by a rookie or Jon Rhattigan.
-Bellore - Replaced by Homer
-Penny, Collier, J Jones, Muse, Irvin, Penny Hart
STAYS
-Blythe depends on how much he asks for. He wasn't in demand for 2022. With Haynes moving into the starting spot it will be they won't want to break up the line's cohesiveness.
-Harris is 31 but he would cost $3 million in dead cap and he's producing.
-Homer adds special teams captain to his duties.
-Mike Jackson needs to be signed to an extension.
-Ryan Neal - I really hope we can afford him.
-Myles Adams, Rhattigan, Myers, Johnson Jr.
Many of these calculations can't be made definitively until after the draft. If we get a WR, DT, EDGE, and LB with our top four picks and can find a center in round three it would definitely help our cap.