Seattle seemed to base a lot of their draft choices on the college bowl games (seniors) and some in the combine. I think the real tale of the tape is free agency and what positions they don't address as far as draft strategy. The decision on Geno will reveal their poker hand a bit more. KC showed what a talented OL can do against a team leading defensive front 7. That matters, whether Geno stay or not. Seattle need to bolster that area (OL) as well as find another RB gem in the later rounds. TE WR yes. But Seattle needs defensive help both in FA and the draft on the line and at LB (urgent). Neal is a must re-sign with Adams injury history at Safety. We know Seattle will draft a corner in later rounds. I still think Young and Blout could be important pieces on both sides of the ball next year. Resign Penny for low ball contract and find a back in round 3 perhaps. Reid and SF sure have done well with later round RB's. The TE scenario just makes good sense Ken. Lock is still an unknown commodity and a gamble. Maybe with a better line and running game he could be tenable. I wonder what the new QB coach is thinking?
- these are just hypotheticals, not what I think is going to happen. A mock draft can never be wrong because a mock draft can never be right.
- when I say “weak class” it’s all relative. It’s taking the last 10 first round draft classes and ranking them 1-10 as prospects. And I’m only speaking to the Seahawks pick at 5 more than I’m talking about their pick at 20 and especially not days 2 and 3. I am only referring to that meaty juicy part of the draft every year that gets the most attention.
It seems to me that every year when we get close to the draft, we hear that the upcoming draft is weak and next year’s is strong.
I think it’s more of a case of weakness at certain positions, like QB is last year’s draft (with the exception of Purdy).
Frankly, I’m ok with whatever PCJS do in the draft. It’s not like I know the draftable players as well as they and the scouting department do. Nor do I know what agents are saying/doing in regards to free agency.
I just pray they end up with a draft class that is orders of magnitude better than the 2021 class. Although that’s a low bar to clear.
You can only trade with whoever wants to trade with you. So many fans want to trade down from #5, cool, only works if someone wants to come up. It's why, especially pre-Combine, Mock Trades are always to be taken with a heavy pinch of salt, and why as fans we should primarly focus on predictions based on current picks.
If the Combine goes badly for the QB's, the value of #5 drops. In fact with the perceived lack of top end talent overall in this draft, a bad QB Combine will make trading down from #5 really hard and dissapointing. Yet another reason taking Bijan at #5 makes sense. But it's still #5 and some team will still see a player on the board that's worthy of the #5 be it reaching for QB, CB, Edge, WR whatever, at #5 the best positional talent at most positions will be on the board! And we could use pretty much any and all of those players ourselves. Therefore the #5 shouldn't be traded lightly, even if it seems potentially against pattern for PC/JS and a lack of internal belief in the options available.
#20 this year I wouldn't expect a huge return on a trade. By now the blue-chip talents should be gone so whoevers coming up needs to really really love someone and be working hard to jump the Chargers (so i'd guess at OLine). But with the depth in this draft on OLine, DLine and TE only getting a 3rd or couple of Day 3's is not a bad trade at all.
I just don't want to see PC/JS reverting to pre-2022 type. Get in there and draft BPA where they can, and really make teams work for a trade up. Be strong in your draft board and scouting, because a genuinely good coaching team and front office will make it work and make players better.
My only points of reference for trade values are the chart and what the PFF mock draft machine allows me to do. I fleece everybody in PFF mocks and I’ve never used the “force trade” option. No matter who is there at 5, #6 will trade you that and a 3rd rounder and so on. Their assumption is that some teams are absolutely desperate to move up. And in spite of trying to mix up where selections fall, they consistently have some really good players going super late. Bijan and Mayer are there at #20 100% of the time. Schmitz is there at our second 2nd and Nio Mafi lasts until our 5th round pick. If I believed that kind of drafting was possible, I’d be very sad on draft day.
- "The S2 isn’t an intelligence test like the 50-question Wonderlic exam but rather measures how quickly and accurately athletes process information. It’s like the 40-yard dash for the brain."
-"Ally says the results are predictive. He couldn’t give out (Brock)Purdy’s exact score because it’s privileged information but said it was in the “mid 90s.” That’s about where Brees, the former Saints quarterback famous for lightning-fast decision-making, scored and where two of the top passers in the league now, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bills’ Josh Allen, also landed. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow took the test while at LSU and agreed to allow S2 to disclose the information. Of course he did — he scored in the 97th percentile."
-"The company recently looked at 27 starting quarterbacks. 13 had a career passer rating above 90. The average S2 score of those players was the 91st percentile. Those with passer ratings below 90 had much lower test results. “Those 14 guys, the average score was in the low 60s,” Ally said."
- "The highest S2 score in last year’s draft class, in fact, was turned in by a cornerback, Trent McDuffie, who started 15 games for the Chiefs, including the Super Bowl."
- HERE'S THE BIG ONE "“We’ve been doing the NFL draft for seven years,” Ally said. “From an S2 Cognitive perspective, last year was the worst year we’ve ever had score-wise. And this year is by far and away the best we’ve ever had, score-wise, at the quarterback position.”
Why there might be fewer taken:
Next year's top three are Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Michael Penix with McCall, Hartman, Leary and other also on the board. It looks like another banner year for QBs.
Yes, I adjust my trades based upon two criteria. One, did the other team call us, or did we call them? Second, are there any QB's a team might be interested in. The truth is (what a loaded phrase, usually the hair on the back of my neck stands up when I read that phrase, so I use it advisedly) we don't know what another team is thinking, and so we can only go by what has gone before, as Joe pointed out. Joe's trades are very conservative, but I will assume, we called them, and they needed some incentive to accept the trade. Historically, there are not lots of trades, but the Seahawks are involved more often than the average team.
I have also noticed it is easy to trade down and end up with too many rookies, which is an argument in favor of taking quality over quantity. In an interview on this years' draft, JS said this was a "deep draft" but what he didn't say is that it is thin at the top. I believe I could hear him say it to himself, but stopped before he blurted it out. I don't think 12 rookies this year is too much, but some might wash out and that would be normal.
I have noticed that two groups have so much depth that good players or players with exceptional traits are being pushed into the last round of the draft. CB's and Defensive Tackles. Tight Ends are also deep, but fizzle out in the last couple of rounds. I hear people say the RB group is also deep. Last year was deep in CB's and that is why we got two starters out of the 4th and 5th rounds.
Success in the draft depends on the quality of the draft and figuring out where it is so deep there are gems to be found. I believe it is interior defensive players. I hope we draft at least two. PFF has shaken up the draft order again, and it pushes DI's and CB's down even further, but I have my eye on taking a CB at 153 out of superstition and/or tradition. My eye has been drawn to Riley Moss our of Iowa or Starling Thomas V out of UAB, who has speed traits, but not long arms.
Are you going to post an article about possibly trading up? As I have said before, when Schneider trades up it is usually for a good reason
Seattle seemed to base a lot of their draft choices on the college bowl games (seniors) and some in the combine. I think the real tale of the tape is free agency and what positions they don't address as far as draft strategy. The decision on Geno will reveal their poker hand a bit more. KC showed what a talented OL can do against a team leading defensive front 7. That matters, whether Geno stay or not. Seattle need to bolster that area (OL) as well as find another RB gem in the later rounds. TE WR yes. But Seattle needs defensive help both in FA and the draft on the line and at LB (urgent). Neal is a must re-sign with Adams injury history at Safety. We know Seattle will draft a corner in later rounds. I still think Young and Blout could be important pieces on both sides of the ball next year. Resign Penny for low ball contract and find a back in round 3 perhaps. Reid and SF sure have done well with later round RB's. The TE scenario just makes good sense Ken. Lock is still an unknown commodity and a gamble. Maybe with a better line and running game he could be tenable. I wonder what the new QB coach is thinking?
Just two notes to add:
- these are just hypotheticals, not what I think is going to happen. A mock draft can never be wrong because a mock draft can never be right.
- when I say “weak class” it’s all relative. It’s taking the last 10 first round draft classes and ranking them 1-10 as prospects. And I’m only speaking to the Seahawks pick at 5 more than I’m talking about their pick at 20 and especially not days 2 and 3. I am only referring to that meaty juicy part of the draft every year that gets the most attention.
It seems to me that every year when we get close to the draft, we hear that the upcoming draft is weak and next year’s is strong.
I think it’s more of a case of weakness at certain positions, like QB is last year’s draft (with the exception of Purdy).
Frankly, I’m ok with whatever PCJS do in the draft. It’s not like I know the draftable players as well as they and the scouting department do. Nor do I know what agents are saying/doing in regards to free agency.
I just pray they end up with a draft class that is orders of magnitude better than the 2021 class. Although that’s a low bar to clear.
You can only trade with whoever wants to trade with you. So many fans want to trade down from #5, cool, only works if someone wants to come up. It's why, especially pre-Combine, Mock Trades are always to be taken with a heavy pinch of salt, and why as fans we should primarly focus on predictions based on current picks.
If the Combine goes badly for the QB's, the value of #5 drops. In fact with the perceived lack of top end talent overall in this draft, a bad QB Combine will make trading down from #5 really hard and dissapointing. Yet another reason taking Bijan at #5 makes sense. But it's still #5 and some team will still see a player on the board that's worthy of the #5 be it reaching for QB, CB, Edge, WR whatever, at #5 the best positional talent at most positions will be on the board! And we could use pretty much any and all of those players ourselves. Therefore the #5 shouldn't be traded lightly, even if it seems potentially against pattern for PC/JS and a lack of internal belief in the options available.
#20 this year I wouldn't expect a huge return on a trade. By now the blue-chip talents should be gone so whoevers coming up needs to really really love someone and be working hard to jump the Chargers (so i'd guess at OLine). But with the depth in this draft on OLine, DLine and TE only getting a 3rd or couple of Day 3's is not a bad trade at all.
I just don't want to see PC/JS reverting to pre-2022 type. Get in there and draft BPA where they can, and really make teams work for a trade up. Be strong in your draft board and scouting, because a genuinely good coaching team and front office will make it work and make players better.
My only points of reference for trade values are the chart and what the PFF mock draft machine allows me to do. I fleece everybody in PFF mocks and I’ve never used the “force trade” option. No matter who is there at 5, #6 will trade you that and a 3rd rounder and so on. Their assumption is that some teams are absolutely desperate to move up. And in spite of trying to mix up where selections fall, they consistently have some really good players going super late. Bijan and Mayer are there at #20 100% of the time. Schmitz is there at our second 2nd and Nio Mafi lasts until our 5th round pick. If I believed that kind of drafting was possible, I’d be very sad on draft day.
I'll disagree with Joe. I believe this is a deep draft but not a strong first round.
Why there will be multiple QBs taken in the first round of the 2023 draft:
I ran across a facinating article about the S2 Cognition test, the replacement for the ineffective Wonderlic. Here's the link but it's The Athletic so you may hit a paywall. https://theathletic.com/4226466/2023/02/24/nfl-quarterbacks-s2-cognition-test/
I'll give you some key quotes.
- "The S2 isn’t an intelligence test like the 50-question Wonderlic exam but rather measures how quickly and accurately athletes process information. It’s like the 40-yard dash for the brain."
-"Ally says the results are predictive. He couldn’t give out (Brock)Purdy’s exact score because it’s privileged information but said it was in the “mid 90s.” That’s about where Brees, the former Saints quarterback famous for lightning-fast decision-making, scored and where two of the top passers in the league now, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bills’ Josh Allen, also landed. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow took the test while at LSU and agreed to allow S2 to disclose the information. Of course he did — he scored in the 97th percentile."
-"The company recently looked at 27 starting quarterbacks. 13 had a career passer rating above 90. The average S2 score of those players was the 91st percentile. Those with passer ratings below 90 had much lower test results. “Those 14 guys, the average score was in the low 60s,” Ally said."
- "The highest S2 score in last year’s draft class, in fact, was turned in by a cornerback, Trent McDuffie, who started 15 games for the Chiefs, including the Super Bowl."
- HERE'S THE BIG ONE "“We’ve been doing the NFL draft for seven years,” Ally said. “From an S2 Cognitive perspective, last year was the worst year we’ve ever had score-wise. And this year is by far and away the best we’ve ever had, score-wise, at the quarterback position.”
Why there might be fewer taken:
Next year's top three are Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Michael Penix with McCall, Hartman, Leary and other also on the board. It looks like another banner year for QBs.
Yes, I adjust my trades based upon two criteria. One, did the other team call us, or did we call them? Second, are there any QB's a team might be interested in. The truth is (what a loaded phrase, usually the hair on the back of my neck stands up when I read that phrase, so I use it advisedly) we don't know what another team is thinking, and so we can only go by what has gone before, as Joe pointed out. Joe's trades are very conservative, but I will assume, we called them, and they needed some incentive to accept the trade. Historically, there are not lots of trades, but the Seahawks are involved more often than the average team.
I have also noticed it is easy to trade down and end up with too many rookies, which is an argument in favor of taking quality over quantity. In an interview on this years' draft, JS said this was a "deep draft" but what he didn't say is that it is thin at the top. I believe I could hear him say it to himself, but stopped before he blurted it out. I don't think 12 rookies this year is too much, but some might wash out and that would be normal.
I have noticed that two groups have so much depth that good players or players with exceptional traits are being pushed into the last round of the draft. CB's and Defensive Tackles. Tight Ends are also deep, but fizzle out in the last couple of rounds. I hear people say the RB group is also deep. Last year was deep in CB's and that is why we got two starters out of the 4th and 5th rounds.
Success in the draft depends on the quality of the draft and figuring out where it is so deep there are gems to be found. I believe it is interior defensive players. I hope we draft at least two. PFF has shaken up the draft order again, and it pushes DI's and CB's down even further, but I have my eye on taking a CB at 153 out of superstition and/or tradition. My eye has been drawn to Riley Moss our of Iowa or Starling Thomas V out of UAB, who has speed traits, but not long arms.