They could very easily be a vastly improved team ,but not be much better record wise. I think one thing allot of people forget is the amazingly lucky Geno Smith! He had a Great lucky(?) record when it came to interceptions, how they happened or didn't and why! I don't remember the exact numbers -(was brought up on both Sport Radio stations)But without a doubt he was the luckiest QB in the NFL last season. By a wide margin! So,if he improves , just a bit with his decision making and doesn't fall into the "unlucky category" and IF Seattle improves a bit on the O-line which they should (especially if they draft properly) then with an improved Defense which we all believe it will be, after FA and the draft then it falls on GENO! to be smart! and should lead to an 11-6 record. Hopefully---
Wow is it too early to talk about the schedule! For example this time last year we'd have seen the Ravens as an almost certain loss, currently that's an almost certain win. Giants would have been a certain win, now that's a scrappy tough game. Rams would be an 0-2 prediction, now rightly it's 2-0. Way way too much up in the air on even "settled" teams like the Eagles and Bengals and 49ers to think about what results we can get.
Yes if this was the '22 teams we played in '23 it'd be a really tough schedule. But how much did these teams change through '22, from '21 to '22 - total lottery right now to guess. I will assume we draft just as well as last year, add in the increased experience and scheme familiarity, Geno settles into this Week1-6/7 self, and therefore 'Hawks go 14-3, claim the #1 Seed, and lose immediately to like the #8 Saints 28:3
The opponents don't really matter. Right now it feels right to believe we might split our games with our mediocre opponents. When we feel like we might split our games with the top tier, we'll be onto something. At this time last year a lot of us would have been glad to split our games against our worst opponents, so who knows? We could surprise again, but it seems easier to turn a bad team mediocre than it is to turn a mediocre team great.
Dang guys, why all the doom and gloom? Not only is the preseason the time for rampant optimism but we only have to look back to Pete and John's first few season to see how quickly these guys can turn things around. I believe that last year was a cross between 2011 and 2012... my rose colored glasses only need the slightest tint to think that by the end of the season the Hawks could be the hottest team ion the league.
Well...I was waiting for this article. The single biggest downer of 2023 (and a reason to stockpile 2024 picks) is the schedule. It’s OMG tough. Repeating 9-8 and sneaking into the playoffs will be a much greater accomplishment than it was last year. Hope I’m wrong but it ain’t gonna be easy. Esp if we don’t have better than average injury luck again like Seattle did last year.
Figures it would be you though to bring this up though, amidst the breathlessness of a #5 pick -- always the realist and the media’s true Mr Objective.
Setting the defense aside, a couple of those loses came when we had no running backs (to speak of)… drafting or signing a decent/complimentary back to K9 will increase those odds of a win. Having a good or better #3WR would also take the pressure off Geno and help DK & Lockett + open up the running game… but defense definitely needs an improvement. Some good has been done but we need to kill it in the draft.
Also would love to see your take on drafting a kick returner. Who is best in draft and whether that pays off. It feels like has been a while since there's been a real home run punt/kick returner in the league in general but the Leon Washington era ruled and would love to see that come back.
You'd think Eskridge could at least do that but maybe he's bad at fielding punts/kick-offs.
Kendo, I'd love to hear your opinion on why Eskridge hasn't seen the field other than the injuries. I'm also curious about what is so different about returning a punt vs a kick seeing as we use two different players.
What 2023 draft pick do you think the Rams would get for Donlald, would you flip them the 5 (or 20) for what he has left in the tank and why would the rams wait to trade him until after the draft?
Aaron Donald not getting a top-10 pick. He might have one year left and that's only if he agrees to go to whatever team he's traded to, because he could just say "I retire".
Last year, with a new DC, I thought the Hawks would win 11 games. The offense would survive but the defense would be much improved.
I was wrong, our defense sucked and the additions they’ve made in FA so far haven’t impressed me much. It’s cute to be flirting with the young QBs that may or may not be playing in a couple of years, but if you want to earn a better record against a tougher schedule in ‘23 then I think you need to draft the best DL available for picks 5 and 20. 3rd and long, no problem; 8 and 9 minute drives…, it’s how we play.
Screwing around trading down or building draft capital for down the road doesn’t do it for me. Draft running backs and wide receivers put me down for 8 wins max.
Last year, I projected 3-6 wins and a possible upset of the Niners. I’m leaving the schedule analysis to more insightful minds!
That being said, even with all of the needs on defense, the Hawks’ best chance to go deep into the 2023 playoffs is to upgrade the interior OL and add a third WR who is more than a safety valve. That would give them a chance to be an elite offense, and elite play is what gets a team to the conference finals.
To even make the playoffs, Bobby Wagner would have to be 2022 Bobby, not 2021. Geno would have to be NOT a one year wonder, and be first half 2022 Geno. The young tackles would have to turn experience and a pro offseason into being better than 2022. The Hawks would have to "hit" on the signings of Jones, Love, Reed , Bush and Brown . Adams would have to stay healthy and Woolen would have to NOT succumb to a sophomore slump. And they would have to "hit" on at least 2 of their first 4 picks in the draft and get quality defensive starters right out of the gate. And they would have to find a quality nose guard somewhere. Should be a piece of cake.
ThE NFC is weak conference without a scary QB. The Hawks will be in the playoffs if Geno plays well and the DL really is better. Reasonable productivity is all they need from the rest of the team.
OMG, I just realized that I thought JT O'Sullivan was Kyle Shanahan! I didn't realize who was who until JT started talking. Those guys could be brothers. Twins, even! Perfect that they went right into that.
I feel like we're still at least a year away from being a contender. Probably 2. It's for this reason that I advocate trading back from the #5 spot for a lesser 1st rounder and a potential top 5 spot in next year's draft -to a team that is a contender to stink next year. In addition to setting ourselves up for next year's draft, I feel like this one is shallow in lottery pick level talents.
This goes against the grain, but I'm not sure I love all of the free agent moves so far. In particular, Jarran Reed. Even though I've met his dad at a game and he was a nice fellow, from what I can see, he wasn't good in KC or Green Bay last season. He went from a run stopper, to a guy who got after the QB, to a JAG in KC and GB. Age and declining play combined don't give me much hope that we didn't downgrade our D line replacing Al Woods. We run a 3-4 and don't have a down lineman over 300 pounds.
Think of the insane depth we had in 2013. Today I see a thin team all over. We need better trench play. Our D line may turn out fine, but I have no reason for optimism so far and rookies take time there. We need starting level iOL. It's been forever since we had a good center, and they come cheap in the draft, compared to most positions. We need a WR3 and depth. After DK and Lockett, it's Dee Eskridge, Cody Thompson, Dareke Young and a few guys you've never heard of on reserve. We need a RB2 (RB1b, I'd argue) and depth. We need another starting corner and depth. We need our QBoTF.
Unless someone PC/JS is in love with falls to us at #5 and #20, I'm okay with trading back both. Especially for future 1st rounders, and especially especially to teams that stand to be bad next year.
I take all of your ideas and I am in agreement with most. Jarren Reed does a lot of unseen work. His sacks have usually come when the quarterback has already been moved off his spot. What that shows me us he works hard, he is also good against the run. You have the same opinion as me on most other topics. Trading down is something I think is tricky. There are only two defensive players worthy of a top 5 pick. Are they generational players I don't know.
From a Bears fansite on Reed before signing with Seattle: "The idea sounds good, but there is some downside to it. Reed is 30 years old now, and the tape and metrics agree that while he was a great run defender, his reputation may be ahead of his current play.
For example, in the past two seasons, his average tackle depth was 3.1, and 3.4 yards down the field. In Seattle, that number never topped three yards.
As a rookie it was 2.6, then went to 2.2, 1.7, and 2.3 during his best year. In his last year with Seattle, it went to 2.9, and Seattle saw it was time to move on."
Again, I hope I'm wrong, and will root for the man. I also think that Woods was a better player. Though he's older still, and I have to wonder how much more the big fella has left in the tank. Hopefully our defense can improve with the personnel changes we've made to (in theory) better fit the new scheme.
“Seattle saw it was time to move on." That’s not exactly the case--they parted ways over money. I suspect that expectation / hope is in the neighborhood of 25-30 quality snaps a game. That doesn’t seem unrealistic.
“In his lone season with the Packers, the veteran provided quality depth to the defensive line. Reed, who cited Aaron Rodgers as a primary reason for signing with the Packers last season, finished with 2.5 sacks at age 30. He finished second behind Kenny Clark on the defensive line in sacks and pressures (17). Four of his pressures resulted in sacks for teammates.
“Even more, Reed showed a knack as a playmaker on the interior. It was Reed who helped spark a comeback win at the Miami Dolphins on Christmas, forcing running back Raheem Mostert to fumble and then recovering the football. Earlier in the season, a game-changing quarterback hit in overtime against Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott helped spark a victory, forcing an incompletion on fourth down. Reed finished with one forced fumble and recovered two.”
They could very easily be a vastly improved team ,but not be much better record wise. I think one thing allot of people forget is the amazingly lucky Geno Smith! He had a Great lucky(?) record when it came to interceptions, how they happened or didn't and why! I don't remember the exact numbers -(was brought up on both Sport Radio stations)But without a doubt he was the luckiest QB in the NFL last season. By a wide margin! So,if he improves , just a bit with his decision making and doesn't fall into the "unlucky category" and IF Seattle improves a bit on the O-line which they should (especially if they draft properly) then with an improved Defense which we all believe it will be, after FA and the draft then it falls on GENO! to be smart! and should lead to an 11-6 record. Hopefully---
Wow is it too early to talk about the schedule! For example this time last year we'd have seen the Ravens as an almost certain loss, currently that's an almost certain win. Giants would have been a certain win, now that's a scrappy tough game. Rams would be an 0-2 prediction, now rightly it's 2-0. Way way too much up in the air on even "settled" teams like the Eagles and Bengals and 49ers to think about what results we can get.
Yes if this was the '22 teams we played in '23 it'd be a really tough schedule. But how much did these teams change through '22, from '21 to '22 - total lottery right now to guess. I will assume we draft just as well as last year, add in the increased experience and scheme familiarity, Geno settles into this Week1-6/7 self, and therefore 'Hawks go 14-3, claim the #1 Seed, and lose immediately to like the #8 Saints 28:3
The opponents don't really matter. Right now it feels right to believe we might split our games with our mediocre opponents. When we feel like we might split our games with the top tier, we'll be onto something. At this time last year a lot of us would have been glad to split our games against our worst opponents, so who knows? We could surprise again, but it seems easier to turn a bad team mediocre than it is to turn a mediocre team great.
Dang guys, why all the doom and gloom? Not only is the preseason the time for rampant optimism but we only have to look back to Pete and John's first few season to see how quickly these guys can turn things around. I believe that last year was a cross between 2011 and 2012... my rose colored glasses only need the slightest tint to think that by the end of the season the Hawks could be the hottest team ion the league.
Well...I was waiting for this article. The single biggest downer of 2023 (and a reason to stockpile 2024 picks) is the schedule. It’s OMG tough. Repeating 9-8 and sneaking into the playoffs will be a much greater accomplishment than it was last year. Hope I’m wrong but it ain’t gonna be easy. Esp if we don’t have better than average injury luck again like Seattle did last year.
Figures it would be you though to bring this up though, amidst the breathlessness of a #5 pick -- always the realist and the media’s true Mr Objective.
That is bananas they dont put him out there. I get there is a chance for injury but get SOME value from his roster spot in the interim.
Setting the defense aside, a couple of those loses came when we had no running backs (to speak of)… drafting or signing a decent/complimentary back to K9 will increase those odds of a win. Having a good or better #3WR would also take the pressure off Geno and help DK & Lockett + open up the running game… but defense definitely needs an improvement. Some good has been done but we need to kill it in the draft.
Also would love to see your take on drafting a kick returner. Who is best in draft and whether that pays off. It feels like has been a while since there's been a real home run punt/kick returner in the league in general but the Leon Washington era ruled and would love to see that come back.
You'd think Eskridge could at least do that but maybe he's bad at fielding punts/kick-offs.
Kendo, I'd love to hear your opinion on why Eskridge hasn't seen the field other than the injuries. I'm also curious about what is so different about returning a punt vs a kick seeing as we use two different players.
What 2023 draft pick do you think the Rams would get for Donlald, would you flip them the 5 (or 20) for what he has left in the tank and why would the rams wait to trade him until after the draft?
Aaron Donald not getting a top-10 pick. He might have one year left and that's only if he agrees to go to whatever team he's traded to, because he could just say "I retire".
I am an optimist, which I have said before. So I am hoping for the best, and the best is 17-0. I'll start there and see what happens.
20-0. Gotta go all the way, man!
I'd send the Rams #20 for Kupp in a heartbeat.
#capspace
Agreed, but what are the odds, really?
Last year, with a new DC, I thought the Hawks would win 11 games. The offense would survive but the defense would be much improved.
I was wrong, our defense sucked and the additions they’ve made in FA so far haven’t impressed me much. It’s cute to be flirting with the young QBs that may or may not be playing in a couple of years, but if you want to earn a better record against a tougher schedule in ‘23 then I think you need to draft the best DL available for picks 5 and 20. 3rd and long, no problem; 8 and 9 minute drives…, it’s how we play.
Screwing around trading down or building draft capital for down the road doesn’t do it for me. Draft running backs and wide receivers put me down for 8 wins max.
Last year, I projected 3-6 wins and a possible upset of the Niners. I’m leaving the schedule analysis to more insightful minds!
That being said, even with all of the needs on defense, the Hawks’ best chance to go deep into the 2023 playoffs is to upgrade the interior OL and add a third WR who is more than a safety valve. That would give them a chance to be an elite offense, and elite play is what gets a team to the conference finals.
To even make the playoffs, Bobby Wagner would have to be 2022 Bobby, not 2021. Geno would have to be NOT a one year wonder, and be first half 2022 Geno. The young tackles would have to turn experience and a pro offseason into being better than 2022. The Hawks would have to "hit" on the signings of Jones, Love, Reed , Bush and Brown . Adams would have to stay healthy and Woolen would have to NOT succumb to a sophomore slump. And they would have to "hit" on at least 2 of their first 4 picks in the draft and get quality defensive starters right out of the gate. And they would have to find a quality nose guard somewhere. Should be a piece of cake.
ThE NFC is weak conference without a scary QB. The Hawks will be in the playoffs if Geno plays well and the DL really is better. Reasonable productivity is all they need from the rest of the team.
OMG, I just realized that I thought JT O'Sullivan was Kyle Shanahan! I didn't realize who was who until JT started talking. Those guys could be brothers. Twins, even! Perfect that they went right into that.
I feel like we're still at least a year away from being a contender. Probably 2. It's for this reason that I advocate trading back from the #5 spot for a lesser 1st rounder and a potential top 5 spot in next year's draft -to a team that is a contender to stink next year. In addition to setting ourselves up for next year's draft, I feel like this one is shallow in lottery pick level talents.
This goes against the grain, but I'm not sure I love all of the free agent moves so far. In particular, Jarran Reed. Even though I've met his dad at a game and he was a nice fellow, from what I can see, he wasn't good in KC or Green Bay last season. He went from a run stopper, to a guy who got after the QB, to a JAG in KC and GB. Age and declining play combined don't give me much hope that we didn't downgrade our D line replacing Al Woods. We run a 3-4 and don't have a down lineman over 300 pounds.
Think of the insane depth we had in 2013. Today I see a thin team all over. We need better trench play. Our D line may turn out fine, but I have no reason for optimism so far and rookies take time there. We need starting level iOL. It's been forever since we had a good center, and they come cheap in the draft, compared to most positions. We need a WR3 and depth. After DK and Lockett, it's Dee Eskridge, Cody Thompson, Dareke Young and a few guys you've never heard of on reserve. We need a RB2 (RB1b, I'd argue) and depth. We need another starting corner and depth. We need our QBoTF.
Unless someone PC/JS is in love with falls to us at #5 and #20, I'm okay with trading back both. Especially for future 1st rounders, and especially especially to teams that stand to be bad next year.
I take all of your ideas and I am in agreement with most. Jarren Reed does a lot of unseen work. His sacks have usually come when the quarterback has already been moved off his spot. What that shows me us he works hard, he is also good against the run. You have the same opinion as me on most other topics. Trading down is something I think is tricky. There are only two defensive players worthy of a top 5 pick. Are they generational players I don't know.
From a Bears fansite on Reed before signing with Seattle: "The idea sounds good, but there is some downside to it. Reed is 30 years old now, and the tape and metrics agree that while he was a great run defender, his reputation may be ahead of his current play.
For example, in the past two seasons, his average tackle depth was 3.1, and 3.4 yards down the field. In Seattle, that number never topped three yards.
As a rookie it was 2.6, then went to 2.2, 1.7, and 2.3 during his best year. In his last year with Seattle, it went to 2.9, and Seattle saw it was time to move on."
Again, I hope I'm wrong, and will root for the man. I also think that Woods was a better player. Though he's older still, and I have to wonder how much more the big fella has left in the tank. Hopefully our defense can improve with the personnel changes we've made to (in theory) better fit the new scheme.
“Seattle saw it was time to move on." That’s not exactly the case--they parted ways over money. I suspect that expectation / hope is in the neighborhood of 25-30 quality snaps a game. That doesn’t seem unrealistic.
Yeah, that wording didn't ring with what I remembered -he wouldn't take a contract extension so the team could move money around.
I think that Green Bay was happy with Reed:
“In his lone season with the Packers, the veteran provided quality depth to the defensive line. Reed, who cited Aaron Rodgers as a primary reason for signing with the Packers last season, finished with 2.5 sacks at age 30. He finished second behind Kenny Clark on the defensive line in sacks and pressures (17). Four of his pressures resulted in sacks for teammates.
“Even more, Reed showed a knack as a playmaker on the interior. It was Reed who helped spark a comeback win at the Miami Dolphins on Christmas, forcing running back Raheem Mostert to fumble and then recovering the football. Earlier in the season, a game-changing quarterback hit in overtime against Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott helped spark a victory, forcing an incompletion on fourth down. Reed finished with one forced fumble and recovered two.”
https://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2023/03/14/defensive-lineman-jarran-reed-to-leave-green-bay-packers-to-sign-with-seattle-seahawks/70010075007/
I hope I'm wrong!