Seahawks 2023 schedule: Post-free agency, pre-draft check-in

We need to take another honest look at Seattle's strength of schedule and potential final record: Seaside Joe 1495

It’s early to start counting wins and losses on the Seattle Seahawks 2023 schedule—as if there’s ever a time when it’s “appropriate” to do so—but I keep forgetting who they need to play next year and I’m hoping maybe you do too. So let’s recall their 2023 opponents and try and answer the question, “How many games do I think the Seahawks should win next year?” following free agency and ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft.

It’s a much harder schedule than I remember with only two teams that seem to not be trying. Luckily, they’re both in the NFC West.

Rams, Cardinals — Better go 4-0

I know how difficult it is to beat those divisional rivals, but if the Seahawks aspire to be a great team next season then they can’t lose to two of the worst teams. Seattle got four of their nine wins in 2022 against Arizona and Los Angeles—both are expected to be even worse in 2023—and if it weren’t for the Rams giving up entirely in the second half of the year we might not have even seen the Seahawks in the playoffs.

I am the only person saying this but I do not expect Matthew Stafford or Aaron Donald to be on the Rams next season. It just does not make any sense given how L.A. is constructed—and to call them “constructed” is a compliment; the Rams have torn it down and they’re starting over. Which is fine for them! But the last component will involve trading Stafford and Donald after the draft. If they put Cooper Kupp on the block on draft night, given the receiver market being so bare this year, they could get a first round pick in return.

Kyler Murray will miss at least half of the season, the Cardinals may see no upside to playing him at all. Arizona will be a hot bet to pick first overall in 2024, which would make for a compelling Josh Rosen-Kyler re-do if the Cardinals decide to draft Caleb Williams instead of pulling a Chicago and trading the pick for a bounty.

By all accounts today, the Seahawks won’t have four easier games on the 2023 schedule. That’s not meant to be disrespectful to L.A. and Arizona—I think it’s a fairly clear sentiment given that Seattle’s other 13 games are against either good teams, great teams, or teams with clear upward momentum.

Read Next: Evaluating Bryce Young’s draft stock and if Seahawks will have a chance

QB Development Opponents — Panthers, Steelers, Commanders, Titans* (?)

*road games

Carolina has put themselves in a position where the Seahawks will almost certainly be facing 2023’s number one overall pick. Pittsburgh is going into year two with 2022’s only first or second round pick at the position, Kenny Pickett. Washington will either be going with Jacoby Brissett, Sam Howell, or as I’ve proposed a first round quarterback—maybe after trading up.

Tennessee is rumored to be trading up in 2023 and maybe they’re feeling the heat to not get left behind as Jacksonville is set at QB, while Houston picks second and Indianapolis picks fourth—odds are increasing that if someone else doesn’t do it, the Colts will trade up to three on draft night.

All four teams had between 7-9 wins in 2022 and whether there’s going to be any dramatic increase or decrease in that outcome is not clear based on their offseason moves. This is where the Seahawks can really make their money next season: Can they go 3-1 or 4-0 against a quartet of untested QBs?

QB Uncertainty or Middle Road - Ravens*, Giants*, Lions*, Cowboys*, Browns

Lamar Jackson is in a category of his own, it just seems difficult for Baltimore or Lamar to go in new directions this year. I would not expect Lamar to play on the franchise tag, if he sits out do the Ravens hire Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, trade for Trey Lance or Stafford? Lamar is the type of quarterback who could give Seattle’s defense nightmares, but Baltimore’s offense was among the worst in the NFL without him and they have no known fallback. Top it off by going on the road, this could be a difficult game for the Seahawks to win IF it’s against Lamar Jackson.

Seattle was hardly tested by Jones last year, beating the Giants 27-13. Given a Geno Smith against Jones rematch and the Seahawks’ ability to seemingly improve its roster through free agency and the draft, there should be reasonable optimism of beating them again.

I’d feel a little less optimistic going to Detroit or Dallas. Not to say either team is a Super Bowl favorite—if not the Seahawks, I’d have my heart out to the Lions and I’m itching to see a healthy Jameson Williams in that offense—but they both have a lot of firepower on both sides of the ball and Seattle is going on the road.

If the Seahawks split these four road games that would be a gigantic victory in itself.

As easy as it is to dismiss Cleveland entirely again, the Browns don’t have to deal with inserting Deshaun Watson into the lineup at the end of the season and they’re putting him behind a top-five offensive line with Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and now Marquise Goodwin. And keeping Myles Garrett off of Geno’s back is as terrifying as Seattle’s failed tests against Nick Bosa last year.

The nice thing is that if you take four wins from the first group, three from the second, and two from the third, that’s a 9-4 record. That’s only if the Seahawks are at the high-end of “good” as they expect to be. The danger is that if Seattle loses two close games that they should have won, that 9-4 turns into 7-6. If they lose three, that’s 6-7.

And we still have to talk about their expected four toughest games.

2 most recent Super Bowl losers - Eagles, Bengals*

If the Seahawks played the Eagles with Jalen Hurts last year, that seems like a runaway for Philly. Literally. The Eagles scored a league-high 32 rushing touchdowns, Seattle allowed a sixth-worst 21 rushing scores and ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed. Of course, the whole idea of the offseason is to not be as bad as you were last year (unless you’re the 2023 Rams), so that’s the dream. Did the Seahawks reach the unreachable dream?

A team hasn’t repeated as NFC East champions since the 2004 Eagles, so I’m not locking Philadelphia in just yet. But they were a lot better than Seattle in 2022, they’ve kept most of the team together, they have two first round picks, and they hired former Seattle assistant Sean Desai as the defensive coordinator. I’ve never been a fan of Marcus Mariota, but even if the Eagles didn’t have Hurts I would find that to be one of the most difficult games of the season by a considerable stretch.

The Seahawks have homefield advantage.

Then they say “Go to Cincinnati and beat Joe Burrow” following back-to-back appearances in the AFC Championship. Both games are extremely difficult tasks and if Seattle wants to announce itself as “back” then yes, they should win one of these games.

The team that went 3-0 against the Seahawks - 49ers twice

San Francisco fits into basically all of these categories above: Division opponent, yes. Development QBs, yes. Middle of the road QBs, yes. Really damn good team with Super Bowl experience, yes.

Optimism comes in the form of Brock Purdy’s recovery from elbow surgery, Trey Lance falling behind Purdy, and Sam Darnold. J.T. O’Sullivan made this interesting video on Kyle Shanahan last week, blaming him for injuries to all three starting QBs last year—plus Josh Johnson in the NFC Championship. He may have a point.

Shanahan’s response is probably, “Fuck you, I have won 13 games in two of the last four years and gone to three of the last four NFC Championships.”

The 49ers have an obvious formula at hand that allows them to win with subpar play at quarterback and though I know Pete Carroll says otherwise, I don’t believe the Seahawks proved themselves to be competitive enough against San Francisco at any point through 12 quarters last season.

That’s what needed to change with rebuilding the front-seven, signing Dre’Mont Jones, bringing back Bobby Wagner, and how Seattle uses these draft picks. The offense wasn’t close to good enough against the 49ers defense or Bosa, so it’s a question of how much they can improve on both sides of the ball. But 189 rushing yards, 170 rushing yards, and 181 rushing yards allowed is not going to get the defense off the field when they need to get off the field.

What I’m looking at today:

If the Seahawks beat all the teams that they SHOULD beat—and I would only say that Arizona and L.A. can definitively fall into that category today, but let’s just say that by the end of the year we know that four other teams are just awful—then that’s a 6-0 start. If they go 4-3 against the other five teams in the mid-range, then that’s 10-3. That would be a playoff team in the NFC, though I think that’s still being VERY generous.

The Seahawks team I saw for most of last year would go 0-4 against the 49ers, Eagles, and Bengals. So that wouldn’t be a team that lasts very long in the playoffs.

A serious Seahawks team would need to go 2-2 or better in those four games and then that’s a 12-5 roster. That’s the type of team that at least competes to get in the NFC Championship. But then if we start going, “Okay, you slipped up against this bad team and this mediocre team” then Seattle falls right back into the 10-7 mid-range teams that can get knocked out of the postseason quickly.

Have the Seahawks done enough to prove that they’re going to not only be better than 9-8, but be several games better than 9-8 against a HARDER schedule? What would they need to do in the next month to make up that difference? Can it even happen?

I see some easy games on this schedule. But not many.