If the Seahawks lose...

Seaside Joe 1767

I hope that the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and that the Bears beat the Packers so that Seattle can make the playoffs.

I wanted to write that sentence first^^^so there was no confusion about Seaside Joe’s motivations this week. I have officially now said “Go Hawks!” so I can’t be accused of anything different.

Now let’s talk about the worst case scenario this week and it’s not the Seahawks losing to the Cardinals: It’s the Seahawks beating the Cardinals and the Packers beating the Bears. In that case, Seattle risks dropping in the draft order without making the playoffs.

I’m not rooting for that and you can’t make me.

One of my favorite podcasts this year has been The O-Line Committee, featuring two former NFL offensive linemen, and I thought Alex Boone said something interesting today about how players feel when they make/almost make the playoffs but don’t get to the Super Bowl: “Getting close to the dance every year only starts to piss people off.”

By the way: I created a Seaside Streams playlist on YouTube. I will start adding all my relevant Seaside Streams videos into this list, so you can follow it if you want to browse for new Seahawks/NFL videos with me.

Boone’s point is that making the playoffs actually IS NOT satisfying to players who have already been there before.

If we look around the league right now, maybe guys like Myles Garrett, Tua Tagovailoa, Dan Campbell are excited for the fact that they finally broke into the playoffs. They all want to win the Super Bowl of course, but at least making the playoffs feels like progress.

It’s not going to be the same feeling for the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys have been to the playoffs five times in the previous nine years, but they haven’t reached the NFC Championship since 1995. If Dallas doesn’t reach the Super Bowl, Mike McCarthy could be fired. Campbell’s not being fired by the Lions, they’ll give him a lifetime contract just for getting to the postseason. But this will be Dak Prescott’s fifth trip to the postseason…Hearing what Boone said, it makes me realize that “Oh, Dak is actually not happy that the Cowboys made the playoffs. He’s probably just stressed.”

NOBODY CARES THAT YOU WIN YOUR DIVISION.

“No, I would care! I care a lot!”

Yeah in the moment. But 14 years into his tenure with a lot of wins, I still don’t know how many division titles Pete Carroll has won. And I wouldn’t care if it was 2 or 7. I only care about the number of Super Bowls. (I do care about the number of playoff appearances, but I’m a fan. A player might only be there for three years or less. He doesn’t care about one playoff trip. He wants to know if he’s going to be there long enough for the Super Bowl trip.)

The Rams are mostly comprised of players who have never been to the playoffs. Many are in their first year in the NFL. But Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Sean McVay, and Aaron Donald are only sticking around to win the Super Bowl. Making the playoffs is satisfying to them because nobody expected L.A. to get there this season, but to Aaron Donald a wild card game is just another business trip.

If the Eagles or 49ers don’t reach the Super Bowl this season, the players and coaches who were on the team last year will consider that to be just as bad as not making the playoffs at all. (Which is probably what Philadelphia deserves.)

I say all of that to say that now my biggest concern about the conclusion of Seattle’s 2023 season is that DK Metcalf has only won one (forgettable) playoff game in his five-year career.

How is it going to make the Seahawks good players start to feel if this is their third or fifth or ninth (Tyler Lockett) disappointing finish to a Seattle season?

“Getting close to the dance every year only starts to piss people off.”

The Seahawks need to win their next three games — not just beat the Cardinals — and they don’t even control whether or not they have two more games after Sunday. They could beat the Cardinals 63-0 and miss the playoffs. They could beat the Cardinals 63-0, make the playoffs, go to Dallas, and lose 45-10.

These are not predictions, only scenarios, but in some way these outcomes are the same outcome:

• Lose

• Win, miss playoffs

• Win, make playoffs, lose a playoff game, and feel deflated again

The Seahawks are 8-8 and they have not won a divisional round playoff game since 2014. The rare times that they win a playoff game, they’re completely forgettable contests against mediocre opponents that would have been just at place at home in the postseason.

I believe we could go back to at least 2020 and say that Seattle should not be satisfied with anything less than making the NFC Championship…then they didn’t…then Russell Wilson got hurt in 2021 and we sort of “excused” that year…then Wilson was traded in 2022 and we kind of “excused” that year too…

Can we really use excuses for 2023?

Probably not.

I will be rooting for the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Arizona Cardinals if for no other reason than “Seahawks beat Cardinals!” has such a nice ring to it. But it’s not enough to save the season. Getting lucky and making the playoffs is not enough. Getting lucky, making the playoffs, going to Dallas, and suffering a “competitive loss” is not enough. Lucky, playoffs, Cowboys, pull out a WIN and then go to San Francisco and lose 30-3 to the 49ers is not enough.

The gap between the Seahawks having a bad year or a good year is not simply making the playoffs.

Even Geno Smith has already experienced that once as Seattle’s starting quarterback.

No, the gap between bad year and good year is in fact so wide that you would need a plane flown by Jimmy Graham to get across it.

The Seahawks winning two playoff games this year would be shocking enough that we don’t even need to broach the topic of the Super Bowl without my jaw already being on the floor. It has been years since Seattle has proven to have a combination of offense, defense, and special teams that could win road playoff games against good football teams.

I don’t think of the 2014 Seahawks as the “most amazing” football team even though they reached the Super Bowl and that team still ranked first in rushing yards, first in yards per carry, first in points allowed, first in yards allowed, second in yards per carry allowed, and first in passing yards allowed.

The Seahawks are not “two players away”. They’re not one quarterback away, although we will have time to discuss in the offseason why a quarterback can give you optimism when there shouldn’t be; just Josh Allen alone makes me believe that an otherwise “fine” Bills team could win the Super Bowl. Seattle is not even one head coach away from the Super Bowl.

They are 29th in rushing yards. 30th in rushing yards allowed. 19th in passing yards allowed. 29th in points per drive allowed. 17th in points. 31st in third down defense.

Honestly, the fact that the Seattle Seahawks have no Pro Bowl players (when rosters are announced on Wednesday night, Seattle’s not expected to be represented) and are 8-8 is what makes me think that Pete Carroll is a PHENOMENAL COACH. It’s the part about him choosing the players and assistant coaches that worries me.

Nobody cared about Pete’s gameday decisions when the Seahawks were beating teams 39-12 in the early-to-mid 2010s.

I want the Seahawks to win, but winning also carries consequences for Seattle (and benefits the Cardinals) and winning doesn’t guarantee the playoffs and the playoffs don’t guarantee happiness and success.

Losing may not assure players like Metcalf that the Seahawks are on the right path. But winning may not do that either.

I can’t not root for the Seahawks to win. However, MANY FANS are talking about the pros and cons of Seattle losing this week, so I wanted to address some of the potential positive outcomes of a Seahawks loss in Week 18.

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Seahawks 2024 first round draft pick

The Seahawks are currently slated to pick 15th overall:

If the Seahawks lose, they’ll be 8-9, and I think the highest they could climb is 13th.

Because the tiebreaker is strength of schedule (combined record of your opponents) and tie goes to the team that had the EASIER schedule, Seattle’s .515 opponent winning percentage is working against them. All the 7-9 teams have lower OWP, therefore I don’t believe Seattle can jump anyone other than the Broncos and Saints.

The Saints have something to play for, so they probably should beat the Falcons at home this week. The Broncos have nothing to play for, it’s a coin toss how they do against the Raiders.

Let’s just say that a Seahawks loss lands them the 14th pick in the draft.

Conversely, a Seahawks win and miss the playoffs=pick 15-18.

A Seahawks win and make playoffs=pick 19-23 if they lose in wild card.

Seahawks win, make playoffs, lose in division round=pick 25.

Laying out four scenarios, winning this week and making the playoffs could cost Seattle anywhere from ~5 to ~10 spots in the first round draft order. It doesn’t sound like much, but keep in mind that most GMs believe there are usually only about 20 players in any given class who have true first round grades.

If the Seahawks pick 15th, they’re likely to get someone who they LOVE or they’re likely to trade down and add additional draft capital, which comes in handy without a second round pick. In the most unlikely, but possible scenario, Seattle could trade up into the top-10 or top-5. It happens.

If the Seahawks pick 20th, the math and options change significantly.

How it impacts the Cardinals

This is as big of a game for the Cardinals future as it is for Seattle’s.

If the Seahawks lose to the Cardinals, they could actually see their first round pick drop from 4th to as low as 7th. If the Cardinals lose, they could pick as high as 2nd. If Arizona picks in the top-3, they could get a quarterback to replace Kyler Murray or an elite weapon like Marvin Harrison, Jr. to help him out. If the Cardinals pick 6th, it could be what decides that Murray stays in Arizona for another year.

It’s a huge game for both teams.

There is actually a scenario in which the Seahawks beating the Cardinals could improve BOTH of Arizona’s first round picks: The Cards could move from 4th to 2nd in draft order if both Washington and New England win, but also Seattle could fall behind the Cards second pick (from Houston) if the Seahawks win and the Texans lose.

The Seahawks winning could force a change from Kyler Murray to a new quarterback. The Seahawks losing could force the Cardinals to keep Murray and not get Marvin Harrison.

The futures of Geno Smith, Pete Carroll

As I wrote, and I stand by this belief, the Seahawks have to make a decision on Pete’s future after the game. You don’t even have to have an opinion on the matter to think that Seattle should at least wait until the end of the season to decide on Pete and Geno because a lot can happen in one game.

The Chargers were reportedly DEADSET on not firing Brandon Staley until the end of the season. Then L.A. got embarrassed by the Raiders on Thursday Night Football and both he and the GM were gone the next day.

With the playoffs still a possibility, will Pete Carroll get his players to show up in a way that they did NOT show up against the Steelers? It’s a legitimate question, especially after 10 years of “getting to the dance and not doing anything.”

I’ve seen Carroll quiet down talk of his impending doom with “meaningless” late season victories before. The Seahawks haven’t had a dominant win all season. Even the Giants game was close in the fourth quarter until Devon Witherspoon’s pick-six. What is Pete’s last impression going to be?

For anyone who wants a coaching change more than they want the playoffs or a winning record, you have to root against the Seahawks. The fact that Seattle will be two games below the Cardinals in the second half of the season if they lose this game is reason enough to think it’s possible.

Sidenote: I keep forgetting to ask this again, but I never heard from the Seasider who supposedly lives in Capetown, South Africa for our “farthest fan” contest. Did I miss a message? Let me know!

Win or Lose?

Let me know in the Seaside Comments if you think the Seahawks would benefit more from winning or losing this game. I also think it’s okay to say that your heart roots for the Seahawks to win, but your head says that Seattle stands to gain more by losing. Boone’s words caught me a little off guard, to say that players actually don’t care about making the playoffs (first time is different) and that it can actually become upsetting if you do it regularly without making any noise once you get there.

Unfortunately, that’s been the definition of the Seahawks for most of the last 10 years. Will it cause player distress to actually make the playoffs this season?

Many of them are first-timers or second-timers, so maybe not. It’s certainly distressing me!