Kind of interesting to look at how the NFL schedule structure played out this year - Seahawks and Rams went 4-2 in the division, 1-3 against the NFC North, 3-1 against the AFC East, and 2-1 against 2nd place (Rams vs Raiders, Saints, Eagles) and 3rd place (Seahawks vs Broncos, Falcons, Giants) schedules. In fact, the whole division went 1-3 vs the NFC North, losing to the big 3 and beating Chicago, except the Rams beat the Vikings and lost to Chicago. Similar against the AFC East - the whole division went 3-1 except SF was 2-2. Notably, the Rams beat the division winner, the Bills (losing to Miami).
In short, the Rams saved their season by beating the Vikings and Bills - showing that on any given day McVay and co can find a way to win. They did lose to the Eagles (a 2nd place matchup), but luckily got the Saints and Raiders in their other two games (two teams that dropped from 2nd in 2023 to 4th in 2024). Rams - Eagles will be an interesting one. Not sure I’m buying the Eagles -6.
I agree with others that there is only 1 person, and 1 person only, to blame for our situation - POOR OL, below average QB, no RB depth, and pathetic cap situation. JS… I’ve asked this question many times… Seaside Joe, help if you can.. Who is between Jody Allen and JS??? Or, who is evaluating the evaluator?
Huge amount. Thanks for posting. But clearly that is going to change unless they don’t find a replacement for Purdy. Purdy get high-end avg then there goes 80% of that number. Of course published avg on him will not be book number but having the cheapest player starting at the top spot skews this. No more.
The NFL is setup to drive parity. Finishing every season with 8-10 wins keeps you just out of range of enjoying the advantages of the NFL system. A front office that can recognize how to strategically time their bad years with their team building will give themselves more opportunities at greatness. It's not tanking; It's breaking eggs to make the omelet.
Re Geno’s future, Mike Dugar makes a couple of great points as a guest on the current Cigar Thoughts podcast.
First, if a team believes that their QB is The Guy, they will pay him. They won’t worry about cap hits, dead money, age, market interest—any of that stuff. The question of whether to keep Geno comes down to whether Schneider and MacDonald think that Geno is The Guy. If they do, Seattle will extend Geno Smith.
Second, the question isn’t whether Smith is good enough to take a team to the Super Bowl. The question is whether Schneider is good enough to give MM and Geno the players that they need. I.e., is Schneider The Guy? FWIW, I share Mike’s doubts on that score.
Now that Geno has met his incentives, only the most tin-eared GM would release him. Our own Mike McDonald points out what a bad look this would be in the locker room, and he’s right. From the guy sitting at the end of the bench to All-Pros, players have long hated (as in *HATED*) this. Heck, management screwing with incentives was one of the reasons why the 1919 White Sox threw the World Series. The Hawks and Geno may yet part ways (and I don’t entirely trust Schneider’s sense of hearing), but it likely won’t be an outright release.
If a coach won’t move on from a player because he’s worried about the ‘look’ in the locker room, then he shouldn’t be coaching. The other way to look at that is that he doesn’t stand for mediocrity and just might incentivise the other players to lift their game (or they’ll be out too). Geno only hit some of his incentives and they were mostly in the final game of the year. Pretty late and potentially dangerous for the rest of the team if he’s playing for himself in that last game. How long does the team put up with mediocrity before moving on and trying something else?
I'm sure Coach Mac is watching these games on the weekend and noting the winners almost all had potent rushing attacks.....especially the Ravens two headed monster (Jackson & Henry). This time of year especially, you have to be able to run the ball. Hopefully JS is noting the same thing. And that's not just having good running backs. That's have a strong, mean, aggressive o-line that loves to get downhill and smack people. JS needs to get the pieces, and the coaches need to develop the ones that are already here.
Strength of schedule is such a tricky thing to measure. Teams rarely have the same record in 2 consecutive years (unless you’re the Seahawks). Basing it on the previous year’s record is…a bit “meh” because the draft, free agency, coaching changes and injuries play a big part in how a team plays the next year. 9ers in ‘23 go to the SB, then fall off a cliff this year. Broncos suffer thru the second half of the Russell Wilson Experience in 23, then ride Bo Nix (!) into the playoffs in 24.
So I’m hesitant to look at next season’s schedule based on how those teams played this just completed season.
However the 9ers do seem to catch a break as the 4th place team in the NFC West with the huge difference between the top and bottom teams in the divisions our teams play next season.
I sure hope we strip the roster down to the truly talented and motivated. It's time for this team to admit it's rebuilding. It's time to begin addressing the OL and DL problems. It's time to maximize draft positions this year and 2026 and we'll hopefully see the benefits in 2027. I believe we can also hang on to some of our very best and most promising players. MM must have the time to mature as an HC and build the staff that he wants. I don't know if JS makes it through all these steps, but hopefully if he's replaced it'll be with one experienced, smart MF.
I believe John IS going to strip it down, for the very reasons you mentioned. I expect we will have a young cheap QB come the beginning of camp. Probably Howell or possibly even Lock. It's my belief that Pete was the primary voice determining the direction of the team and now that he is gone, John, recognizing the potential in his new head coach, will aggressively reset the roster to give Macdonald a clear runway to grow and develop this team into a contender. I'm sure he will do this with full involvement from Coach. And I have supreme confidence in Coach Macdonald. This man will lead us to the promised land, I have no doubt. Now let's get Hank Frayley over here to run our offense. That would be a great start.
Woof...I was really hoping SF was going to pay Purdy big time and start the domino effect of needing to release other high price talent, but it sounds like that might not be the case. And if you look at SF top paid players we look awful in comparison.
Trent Williams.
Deebo Samuel.
Arik Armstead.
Fred Warner.
George Kittle.
Charvarius Ward.
Nick Bosa.
Then there's us...Geno, DK, Locket, big cat, dreJones,Chenna Nwosu, and Noah Fant. Oof...I feel like we are way behind when comparing the big money players. The evidence against Schneider seems to keep mounting. I guess the longer you are in that position the more likely you are to have more bad calls. We need to try and frame any argument properly. But come on JS, we need you to come through this year! Speaking of this year... Has anyone else noticed the major differences in ratings amongst the draftees. CBS, PFF, ESPN, Bleacher Report, and more all seem to have very different ratings for so many positions. If that's any indication of what scouts are grading like then we may see who's scouting department has the best feel for incoming talent and how they might fit their system.
Kenneth (and SSJay, and Clarke), hope things are all good down there in LA. It looks like a nightmare from what we can see. Stay safe!
Thanks Scott. I'm aware of SF & Ram difference makers vs. Hawk big money guys not making enough difference on game day. Seeing it in print is ugly. When Pete headed out the door he said something like "John's been waiting for this...[opportunity to run the team]." I take it to mean Pete was Sr. partner in personnel decisions.
So I'm giving JS '25 & '26 to work w/MM, OC & staff to prioritize fixing O & D lines & LBs. Of course there's a ton of other positions that make a successful team.
But O & D line quality has only gone down over time - no consistent pass rush in forever and one-year O line signings w/scrap heap guys that got Russ & Geno clobbered.
When you talk about evidence against JS, one thing I hope NOT to see, is what JS/MM did w/E Jones this year: give up a pick (4?) for pending FA. Jefferson, Clowney, (how many others?) were 1 & done. Adams a massive overpay w/drafts & $. It wasn't team building, more like poke and hope - a win-now mirage.
LB/E Jones moves probably worth +2 2024 wins?, moved a not-postseason-ready Hawk team farther back in the draft. E Jones kicked butt and whomever wants him will overpay. So yeah, a replay of short-sighted moves in a year where major makeovers are needed. "JS, you're on the clock..."
Draft might settle out after Senior/Shrine, then runs on rumor after the combine. But it’s seemingly an off year, which puts more pressure on free agents. That said, not sure the guy grading ol for us should have a job…
Kind of interesting to look at how the NFL schedule structure played out this year - Seahawks and Rams went 4-2 in the division, 1-3 against the NFC North, 3-1 against the AFC East, and 2-1 against 2nd place (Rams vs Raiders, Saints, Eagles) and 3rd place (Seahawks vs Broncos, Falcons, Giants) schedules. In fact, the whole division went 1-3 vs the NFC North, losing to the big 3 and beating Chicago, except the Rams beat the Vikings and lost to Chicago. Similar against the AFC East - the whole division went 3-1 except SF was 2-2. Notably, the Rams beat the division winner, the Bills (losing to Miami).
In short, the Rams saved their season by beating the Vikings and Bills - showing that on any given day McVay and co can find a way to win. They did lose to the Eagles (a 2nd place matchup), but luckily got the Saints and Raiders in their other two games (two teams that dropped from 2nd in 2023 to 4th in 2024). Rams - Eagles will be an interesting one. Not sure I’m buying the Eagles -6.
I agree with others that there is only 1 person, and 1 person only, to blame for our situation - POOR OL, below average QB, no RB depth, and pathetic cap situation. JS… I’ve asked this question many times… Seaside Joe, help if you can.. Who is between Jody Allen and JS??? Or, who is evaluating the evaluator?
This is HUGE!!! The NFL and parity scheduling set this all up
Huge amount. Thanks for posting. But clearly that is going to change unless they don’t find a replacement for Purdy. Purdy get high-end avg then there goes 80% of that number. Of course published avg on him will not be book number but having the cheapest player starting at the top spot skews this. No more.
The NFL is setup to drive parity. Finishing every season with 8-10 wins keeps you just out of range of enjoying the advantages of the NFL system. A front office that can recognize how to strategically time their bad years with their team building will give themselves more opportunities at greatness. It's not tanking; It's breaking eggs to make the omelet.
Re Geno’s future, Mike Dugar makes a couple of great points as a guest on the current Cigar Thoughts podcast.
First, if a team believes that their QB is The Guy, they will pay him. They won’t worry about cap hits, dead money, age, market interest—any of that stuff. The question of whether to keep Geno comes down to whether Schneider and MacDonald think that Geno is The Guy. If they do, Seattle will extend Geno Smith.
Second, the question isn’t whether Smith is good enough to take a team to the Super Bowl. The question is whether Schneider is good enough to give MM and Geno the players that they need. I.e., is Schneider The Guy? FWIW, I share Mike’s doubts on that score.
Now that Geno has met his incentives, only the most tin-eared GM would release him. Our own Mike McDonald points out what a bad look this would be in the locker room, and he’s right. From the guy sitting at the end of the bench to All-Pros, players have long hated (as in *HATED*) this. Heck, management screwing with incentives was one of the reasons why the 1919 White Sox threw the World Series. The Hawks and Geno may yet part ways (and I don’t entirely trust Schneider’s sense of hearing), but it likely won’t be an outright release.
If a coach won’t move on from a player because he’s worried about the ‘look’ in the locker room, then he shouldn’t be coaching. The other way to look at that is that he doesn’t stand for mediocrity and just might incentivise the other players to lift their game (or they’ll be out too). Geno only hit some of his incentives and they were mostly in the final game of the year. Pretty late and potentially dangerous for the rest of the team if he’s playing for himself in that last game. How long does the team put up with mediocrity before moving on and trying something else?
P.S. If they want to move on from a QB, why not Sam Howell? Make an effort to sign Zach Wilson as the backup and continue to develop him.
I'm sure Coach Mac is watching these games on the weekend and noting the winners almost all had potent rushing attacks.....especially the Ravens two headed monster (Jackson & Henry). This time of year especially, you have to be able to run the ball. Hopefully JS is noting the same thing. And that's not just having good running backs. That's have a strong, mean, aggressive o-line that loves to get downhill and smack people. JS needs to get the pieces, and the coaches need to develop the ones that are already here.
Strength of schedule is such a tricky thing to measure. Teams rarely have the same record in 2 consecutive years (unless you’re the Seahawks). Basing it on the previous year’s record is…a bit “meh” because the draft, free agency, coaching changes and injuries play a big part in how a team plays the next year. 9ers in ‘23 go to the SB, then fall off a cliff this year. Broncos suffer thru the second half of the Russell Wilson Experience in 23, then ride Bo Nix (!) into the playoffs in 24.
So I’m hesitant to look at next season’s schedule based on how those teams played this just completed season.
However the 9ers do seem to catch a break as the 4th place team in the NFC West with the huge difference between the top and bottom teams in the divisions our teams play next season.
I’m already talking in circles. I need a beer.
I sure hope we strip the roster down to the truly talented and motivated. It's time for this team to admit it's rebuilding. It's time to begin addressing the OL and DL problems. It's time to maximize draft positions this year and 2026 and we'll hopefully see the benefits in 2027. I believe we can also hang on to some of our very best and most promising players. MM must have the time to mature as an HC and build the staff that he wants. I don't know if JS makes it through all these steps, but hopefully if he's replaced it'll be with one experienced, smart MF.
I believe John IS going to strip it down, for the very reasons you mentioned. I expect we will have a young cheap QB come the beginning of camp. Probably Howell or possibly even Lock. It's my belief that Pete was the primary voice determining the direction of the team and now that he is gone, John, recognizing the potential in his new head coach, will aggressively reset the roster to give Macdonald a clear runway to grow and develop this team into a contender. I'm sure he will do this with full involvement from Coach. And I have supreme confidence in Coach Macdonald. This man will lead us to the promised land, I have no doubt. Now let's get Hank Frayley over here to run our offense. That would be a great start.
Go Hawks
I think you are correct. Our line needs a major retooling. Scouting included.
Woof...I was really hoping SF was going to pay Purdy big time and start the domino effect of needing to release other high price talent, but it sounds like that might not be the case. And if you look at SF top paid players we look awful in comparison.
Trent Williams.
Deebo Samuel.
Arik Armstead.
Fred Warner.
George Kittle.
Charvarius Ward.
Nick Bosa.
Then there's us...Geno, DK, Locket, big cat, dreJones,Chenna Nwosu, and Noah Fant. Oof...I feel like we are way behind when comparing the big money players. The evidence against Schneider seems to keep mounting. I guess the longer you are in that position the more likely you are to have more bad calls. We need to try and frame any argument properly. But come on JS, we need you to come through this year! Speaking of this year... Has anyone else noticed the major differences in ratings amongst the draftees. CBS, PFF, ESPN, Bleacher Report, and more all seem to have very different ratings for so many positions. If that's any indication of what scouts are grading like then we may see who's scouting department has the best feel for incoming talent and how they might fit their system.
Kenneth (and SSJay, and Clarke), hope things are all good down there in LA. It looks like a nightmare from what we can see. Stay safe!
Thanks Scott. I'm aware of SF & Ram difference makers vs. Hawk big money guys not making enough difference on game day. Seeing it in print is ugly. When Pete headed out the door he said something like "John's been waiting for this...[opportunity to run the team]." I take it to mean Pete was Sr. partner in personnel decisions.
So I'm giving JS '25 & '26 to work w/MM, OC & staff to prioritize fixing O & D lines & LBs. Of course there's a ton of other positions that make a successful team.
But O & D line quality has only gone down over time - no consistent pass rush in forever and one-year O line signings w/scrap heap guys that got Russ & Geno clobbered.
When you talk about evidence against JS, one thing I hope NOT to see, is what JS/MM did w/E Jones this year: give up a pick (4?) for pending FA. Jefferson, Clowney, (how many others?) were 1 & done. Adams a massive overpay w/drafts & $. It wasn't team building, more like poke and hope - a win-now mirage.
LB/E Jones moves probably worth +2 2024 wins?, moved a not-postseason-ready Hawk team farther back in the draft. E Jones kicked butt and whomever wants him will overpay. So yeah, a replay of short-sighted moves in a year where major makeovers are needed. "JS, you're on the clock..."
Draft might settle out after Senior/Shrine, then runs on rumor after the combine. But it’s seemingly an off year, which puts more pressure on free agents. That said, not sure the guy grading ol for us should have a job…
The usual “looked good in the Senior Bowl” drafting method - a Seahawks standard.