Seahawks add $8 million cap space
But 49ers could become a problem again
The Seattle Seahawks officially rolled over $8.42 million in cap space from 2024 to 2025, per OvertheCap.com, a number that ranks 13th in the NFL. However, the Seahawks also just lost $6 million in cap space when Geno Smith hit 3 of 5 incentives in Week 18 against the Rams.
As such, Seattle is still projected to be $27.5 million over the 2025 salary cap and the first decision John Schneider has to make will be what to do with Smith: $44.5 million cap hit if he stays OR $31 million in cap savings if he’s released.
I think he will be released and adding $6 million to his bill of services could have worked against him, unless Schneider opts to extend the deal. Lucky for both sides, the Seahawks will be able to create plenty of cap space just by releasing the players who are guaranteed to be gone.
Perhaps the bigger concern for the Seahawks is not their own cap, but the potential opportunities coming to a division rival that has won the NFC West in three of the five years previous to 2024.
I hate to write it just as much as you’ll hate to read it:
The 49ers are a problem.
Last February, I wrote that the Rams — not the 49ers — were the team that the Seahawks had to worry about in 2024. L.A. won the division, San Francisco went 6-11.
Now it seems the two teams could flip-flop again, so how are Schneider and Mike Macdonald going to get the best of both next season?
As I wrote on Saturday, the Seahawks have the second place schedule in the NFC West, whereas the Rams are first, Cardinals are third, and the real bad news, the 49ers finished in fourth. Just as they did in 2020, before rebounding to make the NFC Championship game in each of the next three seasons:
“But don’t all the NFC West teams play the SAME schedule?”
Not at all.
Setting aside the obvious — teams change throughout the season based on injuries, coaching changes, and many other factors — we have to compare schedules based on what is DIFFERENT, not is what the SAME.
All four teams in the NFC West will play these teams in 2025:
NFC South: Bucs, Falcons, Saints, Panthers
AFC South: Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Texans
The NFC West teams that aren’t themselves or the other team we’re comparing to the Seahawks; i.e., both the Rams and Seahawks have to play the 49ers and Cardinals twice
So if we compare the schedules of the Rams and the 49ers, we know off the bat that they have 12 common games. The Rams don’t play the Rams and the 49ers don’t play the 49ers, so that leaves three games. These are the three differences between L.A.’s schedule and San Francisco’s:
The Rams play the 14-3 Eagles, the 49ers play the 3-14 Giants
The Rams play the 15-2 Lions, the 49ers play the 5-12 Bears
The Rams play the 12-5 Ravens, the 49ers play the 3-14 Browns
These are different schedules, right?
The Seahawks will play the Vikings, Moons, and Steelers out of those divisions.
As much as we can say that we can’t predict next season’s strength of schedule based on this season’s quality — which is true to an extent — we can also probably agree that the Eagles, Lions, and Ravens are probably better than the Giants, Bears, and Browns. Probably a lot better.
If divisions were not tight, then maybe one or two games wouldn’t make a difference. Since the NFC West is probably going to be decided by a game — or say, a “tiebreaker”? — the 49ers could win this division because they finished in last place instead of the Cardinals.
It’s not an accident. It’s how the NFL is designed to work and nobody here is going to argue that the league would hate to see the San Francisco 49ers in another Super Bowl.
49ers other advantages
As noted in the screenshot above, the 49ers rolled over the most cap space in the NFL this week — $50 million — which puts them at a projected $46.5 million to work with going into the offseason. If they restructure Fred Warner and George Kittle, they could get to almost $70 million in cap space, plus we already know that the Niners are:
Aggressive in free agency
Attractive to free agents
Maybe that will work against them as it did with Javon Hargrave (a $20 million per season free agent bust) a couple of years ago. Maybe it won’t.
The Seahawks will cut players to make room, but short of cutting Geno Smith, trading DK Metcalf, and stripping the roster to bare bones, they might not come that close to the Cardinals ($72 million projected right now), Rams ($46 million) and Niners.
New coordinators
The 49ers fired defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen after one season and are rumored to want Robert Saleh back if he doesn’t get a better offer. San Francisco had a lot of success with Saleh, including the number one pass defense in 2019 en route to reaching the Super Bowl.
Highest draft pick
The 49ers pick 11th overall, the highest selection of any team in the NFC West, and we should assume they will be aggressive again. They will have another third round comp pick this year and are projected to get a fourth rounder for Chase Young.
QB change?
If a marquee quarterback hits the trade market, Shanahan could lead the charge to go get him just as the Rams secured Matthew Stafford (who the 49ers also wanted) in 2021. Opposing fans may say “Hahaha, you overpaid for a QB”…just as they did when the Rams traded for Stafford 12 months before winning the Super Bowl.
It could be preferable to see the 49ers extend and overpay Brock Purdy. So long as the Seahawks don’t make a similar mistake, if it even is a mistake.
We all want to see the 49ers fail. Unfortunately, it’s because the 49ers failed in 2024 that they could have the easiest road to winning more games in 2025.
Seaside Joe 2144
Woof...I was really hoping SF was going to pay Purdy big time and start the domino effect of needing to release other high price talent, but it sounds like that might not be the case. And if you look at SF top paid players we look awful in comparison.
Trent Williams.
Deebo Samuel.
Arik Armstead.
Fred Warner.
George Kittle.
Charvarius Ward.
Nick Bosa.
Then there's us...Geno, DK, Locket, big cat, dreJones,Chenna Nwosu, and Noah Fant. Oof...I feel like we are way behind when comparing the big money players. The evidence against Schneider seems to keep mounting. I guess the longer you are in that position the more likely you are to have more bad calls. We need to try and frame any argument properly. But come on JS, we need you to come through this year! Speaking of this year... Has anyone else noticed the major differences in ratings amongst the draftees. CBS, PFF, ESPN, Bleacher Report, and more all seem to have very different ratings for so many positions. If that's any indication of what scouts are grading like then we may see who's scouting department has the best feel for incoming talent and how they might fit their system.
Kenneth (and SSJay, and Clarke), hope things are all good down there in LA. It looks like a nightmare from what we can see. Stay safe!
Strength of schedule is such a tricky thing to measure. Teams rarely have the same record in 2 consecutive years (unless you’re the Seahawks). Basing it on the previous year’s record is…a bit “meh” because the draft, free agency, coaching changes and injuries play a big part in how a team plays the next year. 9ers in ‘23 go to the SB, then fall off a cliff this year. Broncos suffer thru the second half of the Russell Wilson Experience in 23, then ride Bo Nix (!) into the playoffs in 24.
So I’m hesitant to look at next season’s schedule based on how those teams played this just completed season.
However the 9ers do seem to catch a break as the 4th place team in the NFC West with the huge difference between the top and bottom teams in the divisions our teams play next season.
I’m already talking in circles. I need a beer.