Seahawks finish QB tour with Anthony Richardson, confirming all your biases
Whether you believe Richardson is worth a top-5 pick or not, I GUARANTEE that you believe it! Seaside Joe 1489
I recently finished binge watching a reality game show called “The Traitors” on Peacock and what’s really enthralling about it is that way that you can see confirmation bias lead players to their own demise. Over and over again. Any time they think they’ve cracked the code, blinders go up that virtually guarantee that no amount of evidence to the contrary can convince them that their original instincts were actually wrong.
If anything, evidence that directly refutes their beliefs only drives them further away from the truth.
It’s fascinating to watch something so analogous to “the nature of Twitter” unfold in real time on a game show with the consequences for your poor decisions being banishment and the reward for lying to other people for your own selfish benefit lead to a huge cash prize at the end.
We’re seeing the exact same confirmation bias happen every time Seahawks Twitter gets a hold of a new Pete Carroll and Co. selfie with a 2023 QB prospect and last but (not?) least is Florida’s Anthony Richardson on Thursday.
Just remember: If you think the Seahawks are going to draft Richardson, there are “clues” in this selfie that make it so clear and apparent that you’d think John Schneider already handed in the card to Roger Goodell. And if you don’t think Seattle will pick Richardson, then this selfie confirms what you already knew and “actually I can clearly see Greg Olson mouthing the last word in ‘no thank you’ in this pic.”
If you think the Seahawks are deadset on drafting a QB at #5, then these selfies are all the evidence you needed.
If you don’t think that Pete Carroll would ever pick a QB that high, then these selfies are all the evidence you needed. Just a smokescreen to entice other teams to trade up with the Arizona Cardinals so that Will Anderson or Jalen Carter fall into their laps.
Cool, glad this whole pro day process was as valuable and insightful as it is every other year.
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If there’s anything interesting about quarterback performances at pro days, it’s not the pre-planned throws that hit the roof (I’m assuming that it’s probably easier to hit the roof of a facility than it is to accurately throw a pass 25 yards downfield through traffic with a hand in your face) or post-event meetings with teams like the Seahawks. I know that Seattle fans are not accustomed to the team being involved with these events at such a publicized level because they haven’t had to be in recent years but in case anyone needs a reminder: The pro day process probably accounts for less than 1% of what matters when making decisions like “Do we want to draft a QB with the 5th overall pick?”
It doesn’t mean that I have the answers for you as far as whether the Seahawks are genuinely interested in Richardson or Will Levis (I would guess though that Seattle has genuine interest in Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud because I think close to 32 teams feel that way), it just means that I would be shocked if any of these pro days have swayed their opinions and that should not be a controversial take.
So it’s not the QBs who catch my attention during pro days. It’s the media and how they choose to let “the evidence” push them further towards their pre-planned and intended goals, same as hitting a roof with a football.
GMs, coaches, analysts who are well-informed and being honest, they’ve long said that pro days don’t matter except for a few special cases. Nothing that Anthony Richardson did on Thursday should have made him go from “We don’t want him” to “We want him”…or vice versa.
You won’t find many GMs who’d even say that the NFL Scouting Combine throwing sessions and workouts for QBs matter all that much—but my understanding is that Levis didn’t have a good throwing session there and that Richardson couldn’t answer questions of accuracy, touch, footwork, or anticipation that scouts have—but it is especially hard for opinions to be changed at pro days where the prospects have homefield advantages.
Free Bonus Article on Wednesday: Will Levis muscle pics, what Pete loves about Julian Love, QB updates for all 32 teams
What I really loved about “The Traitors” (I’ve only watched the Australian season and the premise is simple: 24 contestants to start and four are chosen as traitors with the audience also being in on the secret of who’s lying and who’s telling the truth) is that you get to watch people be SO 100% FREAKING CERTAIN THAT THEY KNOW THE TRUTH of who the traitors are while you yourself as a viewer are ACTUALLY AWARE of the truth that they’re dead-ass wrong.
It’s amazing! And I genuinely feel that way with how people on Twitter react to NFL Draft season.
It’s fascinating to see that maybe in the case of someone like Gregg Bell, he just saw Richardson further confirm that he could go as high as first overall and that he probably won’t even be an option for Seattle at #5 anymore. And yet over on the NFL Network, Adam Rank knows that Richardson has special arm talent and elite athleticism—something we’ve known since Richardson’s freshman season at Florida and therefore the needle hasn’t been moved at the combine or his pro day—but doesn’t see him as a top-10 pick.
Another NFL media employee, Bucky Brooks, does have the Seattle Seahawks drafting Anthony Richardson. With the 20th overall pick.
I know many people are shocked by this and think, “Oh haha, must be more CLICKBAIT like that guy at ESPN who has the Seahawks taking Hendon Hooker at #5! I know what’s going to happen though because…I was told by OTHER people at NFL Network and ESPN that they will go in much different spots!” But Brooks having Richardson be available at 20 and Levis not being drafted in the first round didn’t shock me at all because that’s actually what the consensus probably was on both quarterbacks prior to “draft season” starting in February.
It’s literally the exact same thing that happened with Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder in 2022: Neither of them had first round grades, then people who don’t follow the draft until there’s a few months to go before it happens start asking “Okay, who are the QBs I should know about?” and then you start hearing about the guys who might have the tools to do something special in the NFL regardless of how they were being treated during their college careers or if they have proven that they can play football well.
Guys who were ranked high (like Young) are probably “overrated” according to the new narrative and guys ranked lower (like Hooker perhaps) are probably “underrated” and that’s generally how it seems to go every year when people get involved evaluating at the last minute.
A year ago, Willis entered the draft with a ton of questions about whether or not he could read defenses, if he was capable of putting together a complete game, and if he had just survived against competition simply because he’s a great athlete. Richardson and Willis may not share a lot in common, but their tour through the last season of college, the combine, and hype over a pro day throws is an uncanny 1:1.
(Willis) did nothing but help himself on Tuesday, and clearly remains in the conversation to be the first quarterback selected in the draft.
But the reason that Richardson will probably go higher than Willis—who went 86th and was the third QB drafted—is simply that he’s younger and taller. Like Levis, Willis transferred from a bigger program to a college where he’d get a chance to start. I just don’t think Richardson felt he could raise his stock any by playing somewhere else and decided to test the draft before doing anything that could have hurt him or getting injured.
The questions still remain of whether or not he will ever know how to play quarterback. That can’t be answered at a combine or pro day. I thought Kurt Warner made an interesting comparison between Richardson and himself, noting that he also only played one season in college…but that he then played in alternative pro leagues which allowed him finally learn how to play the game before getting his chance with a LOADED Rams team.
When people casually bring up that “Richardson just needs a year or two to develop and then he will become Josh Allen” my mind is just blown. I would suggest watching some of these video breakdowns of his games in college, including this one from Warner, and while hearing how many things that AR does wrong ask yourself if this scenario is possible:
Coach Watches Film with AR & Coach Tells AR: “Okay, you see what you did wrong here? Do this instead.”
AR says: “OKAY, COACH!”
Next Game, AR makes same mistake; Coach Tells AR: “Okay, no problem, we’ll call it a mulligan. Remember what I said before? Now next time, do it THIS way instead. Got it?”
AR: “Got it, Coach! You’re the boss, Coach!”
Next Game, AR makes same mistake; Mistakes have led to 0-7 record; Coach, “AR, Need you to do THIS next time, OK?” AR: “HELL YEAH COACH! I’M GONNA GET IT RIGHT!”
AR makes same mistake, team is 1-11…
“Hey, AR, what’s up? I know you’ve been having a hard time doing it this way so here’s my suggestion, let’s change it up. Next time, I want you to do it THAT way, okay? I think that’ll help us turn the team around!”
AR says, “No problem, coach! I didn’t like that last coach anyway. I think your method will work better. Let’s go, New Coach!”
(Because the first Coach got fired.)
We’ve been doing “NFL” for over 100 years. As it currently stands, how many great quarterbacks do you even see in the league today? We might be genuinely quite lucky if by the end of next season there are EIGHT of them! Now think of how goddamn hard that means it is to play Professional Quarterback in the NFL! We all know that Richardson has this potential to run the football from the position at a high level, like Justin Fields, and we know that his arm strength and ability to throw 50 yards with a “flick” is really special, but those are not the ‘rare traits’ that I think matter nearly the most to be one of the lucky few who survive in this league at QB.
That’s why I find statements like this one from Bell to be so incredible:
Thursday’s throwing session had hits and misses (literally) but even if that’s the case, Gregg Bell says that “everything else” about Anthony Richardson will vault him into the top-5 of the NFL Draft. “Everything else.” “Everything. Else.” So “everything” includes…13 starts in college, none of them without serious mistakes, lack of touch, accuracy, throwing with anticipation, footwork, proper reads, or beating out Emory Jones for the starting job in 2021?
If learning how to play quarterback is that easy then why are we even fans of the sport? And why did Richardson choose to wait until the pros to start?
Whether Richardson gets drafted by the Seahawks or not, I promise I’ll be right there with you first in line rooting for his success. I’ve always said that what matters in this sport more than anything else is having more great players in the league and nothing generates intrigue like a fascinating and talented quarterback. But “talent” is a generic word that encapsulates a hell of a lot more at the QB position than “Is Big” “Run Fast” and “Throw Far”.
Tom Brady isn’t, doesn’t, and didn’t (not really). Probably the single-greatest attribute that attracted Andy Reid to Patrick Mahomes in 2017 was how he was able to digest a playbook, read a defense, and prove to the coaching staff that he was coachable. That’s why I continue to believe, as I have for over a year, that Bryce Young is the number one pick in the draft and that the Carolina Panthers made that move for him and for him alone.
But is that the case or am I just confirming a bias? We won’t find out until the draft. Until then, watch out for Traitors. They’re already in your ears and influencing what you think you believe, whether you were aware of that or not.
Wanted to add that I won’t be surprised if “OMG Richardson was on the board and the Seahawks picked someone else” becomes this years “OMG Willis fell to 40 and Seahawks took a RB”
Very funny that today there’s a report that the Raiders crossed Jalen Carter off of their board… Rob Staton shared that as proof that Carter is falling as well as that he “only has 4 visits” scheduled… Well apparently one of those visits is with THE RAIDERS.
Every report just confirms the bias. And if it doesn’t, then just don’t mention that one.