Seahawks at their 'best case scenario' 2025?

The most that Seahawks fans could have hope for at the beginning of the season has come to fruition

Before the season started, “Seahawks, best team” felt possible but just as a best case scenario if Mike Macdonald’s reputation as the top defensive mind proved legitimate and the offense could be above-average overall and elite at something. I don’t think the Seahawks would be in the conversation as best team if they had the number one defense and an average offense alone, Seattle really had to be better than almost every other team in at least one offensive category.

Nearing the end of the season, the Seahawks lead the league with 8.9 yards per pass attempt and 8.2 net yards per pass attempt, which is also one of the best indicators of a dominant offense that there is. And Seattle doesn’t just lead…The Seahawks lead every other offense besides the Patriots by at least one full net yard per pass attempt.

Even as the offense has “struggled” over the last four games, the Seahawks still rank 5th in both categories since Week 10.

Most teams would kill for those struggles.

As we start December, the Seahawks have almost hit their best case scenario:

The Seahawks defense ranks 1st overall in DVOA (Aaron Schatz says that the Vikings had their worst offensive game in franchise HISTORY this week) and that’s before adding back Julian Love and Jarran Reed, both of whom (and Dareke Young) return to practice this week.

Seattle’s offense is 9th in points per drive, first in yards per pass, and the Seahawks have the best offensive weapon in the NFL this season. Fans couldn’t have asked for more than that, but we got more because Sam Darnold also has the fifth-lowest sack rate in the league; almost half as many sacks taken per game as the Seahawks had in 2024.

For added measure, if you took the 5 worst games that Seattle’s special teams has had since 2024, all 5 are from last season.

The Seahawks are one tremendously long field goal attempt from being 10-2 with a win over the team most say is the best or second-best in the NFL. “Seahawks, best team”? I couldn’t name 2 better candidates.

Every week I take questions from the Super Joes founding members of Seaside Joe. Subscribe here if you want in next week.

Rusty: Ok. So…is it unreasonable to start looking at flights to the Bay Area for early February? I don’t want to wait too long. Round trip tickets from PDX are only $137…. ;-)

I can’t say that I’d be overly concerned about it if the Seahawks had to go on the road in the playoffs because Seattle has proven itself to be the best road team in the NFL this season. That being said, I’d first love to find out how they do against the Rams in Week 16 before booking the ticket.

The idea that one team per conference is awarded a round 1 playoff win AND a home game in round 2, I mean no advantage comes close to the number one seed. If the Seahawks close out the season with the 1-seed, they’ll be one win away from being one win away.

zezinhom400: Brian Flores didn’t hide he was going to bring it, said so before the game even started. Obviously had insider knowledge of Darnold so must have been supremely confident to not even disguise his intentions. And had to be the reason Minnesota didn’t re-sign Darnold.

So: remind me again how you counter a blitzing team, and especially how you do it if your QB is a little “anxious”. I did note the 2nd half was better than the 1st, but since I know there aren’t halftime adjustments, was that just a coincidence? What did we do differently in the 2nd half?

Sam Darnold’s blitz rate 2025:

Games over 28% blitz rate: Seahawks are 7-1

Games up to 28% blitz rate: Seahawks are 2-2

Of the four games with the least amount of blitzes vs. Darnold, Seattle has lost twice (49ers, Rams). Out of the other eight games, Seattle has won seven times and the lone exception is the loss to the Bucs in which Darnold had a season-high +22 EPA. I don’t think fans can read anything into an overrated (in my opinion) defensive coordinator “holding” Darnold to bad stats in a game that the Seahawks won by 26 points.

Before getting into any general strategy, I’ll add that if “blitz a lot” was a great plan then everyone would do it. If “blitz Darnold a lot” was a good strategy, Darnold wouldn’t be a top-10 QB this season. If Flores had a blitz plan that was a magic bean, he wouldn’t be a defensive coordinator/not head coach with a mediocre defense. He has the front-7 talent.

Conversely, 5 of the top 8 defenses in yards per play allowed (including Seattle’s) are bottom-8 in blitz rate.

If anything, Flores is giving off “I don’t know what else to do” vibes by leading the league in blitz rate every season and for that reason no defense gets passed on less often than Minnesota:

This is partially related to the Vikings being such a bad team but the pass/run split is only barely in favor of the pass in the first half of games too: 55%.

The Seahawks countered Flores in the same way that a lot of teams do by running the ball 32 times and knowing that they didn’t need to take deep shots to Jaxon Smith-Njigba because the game was on “easy mode”. Show me a game where Darnold throws 4 picks and the Seahawks lose like Week 11 and I’ll share some concerns.

By the way, read Cody Alexander’s “Week 14 data download” if you want to get really deep into the weeds of blitz rates and coverage rates.

Show me a game where the Seahawks win by 26 points, I applaud a conservative gameplan that prioritized avoiding mistakes over getting Seattle’s top offensive weapons better fantasy numbers. I’m not saying that you’re saying that they should have done that, zezzy, but just pointing out that I think the Seahawks/Darnold were basically laughing at Flores blitzing him 63.3% of the time (career-high for Darnold).

If the game had been 20-17 at halftime or 30-20 in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks would have had a much different approach and probably been fine. Because Minnesota is so laughably bad on offense, Seattle just notched the win and stayed healthy for Week 14.

Generally, teams can call screens, quick passes to the flats, adjust their blocking scheme, use the running back or extra tight ends in pass protection, or run the ball. Many of you would be able to answer that question better than me.

But I think it’s interesting that as Darnold was taking the blame for Minnesota’s collapse last season, the Flores defense got less and less effective as the year went on as opposing teams figured him out and it was actually the passing offense that kept the Vikings in the run for the 1-seed all the way to Week 18. I’d say that Darnold’s intel on Minnesota was more valuable than Minnesota’s intel about Darnold.

There might not be a more overrated assistant coach in the league than Brian Flores.

Don Ellis: I posted this on SSJ’s article before this one. The All-22 film gives some detail about how the Vikings use a read and react scheme for their front 7 based on how the opposing offense executes their blocking assignments:

Always happy to have All-22 Coach shared as a resource for answers to questions like this one.

Largentium: Why is Anthony Bradford still in the lineup? You can’t tell me that a guy off the street isn’t better than him at this point. There were way too many plays where he whiffed on blocks or stood around watching people rush Darnold and not even try to help. He’s clueless and they need to move on to someone who can do something.

West Seattle Tim: Thanks for asking what I came here to ask. I thought Haynes was available, or Cabledue, hell even Josh Jones. All 3 are on the active roster, so are we to believe that none of them are better than Bradford? Why are they on the active roster if they aren’t going to play? Or are they really not as good as Bradford? Or do we need to wait for Sundell to get better and slide Olu over to R/G?

This has been making the rounds this week:

Here’s what Mike Macdonald told Brock&Salk this week:

“I think we have to keep doubling down on fundamentals. AB is doing some good things, he really is. There’s some really good plays on there. And there’s some not so good plays. Some of those plays that show up are quick losses, maybe, and we can finish those plays better. Let’s keep doubling down on the fundamentals.

Christian Haynes came in yesterday and did a good job when AB went out. Jalen Sundell’s coming back in the next couple weeks, maybe there’s some combinations there that we could look at. Everyone’s always in competition. Charles and Grey win their jobs every day. AB’s been winning the right guard job when he’s been in there.”

Haynes only returned to practice last month, is it possible he’s worse than Bradford? I would say that it is possible. Why is he on the roster? Most backup offensive linemen are relatively bad at their jobs compared to the ones good enough to start and Seattle stashed him on IR for 2 months. You might get some encouragement from this Top Billin’ video though:

Why does Bryce Cabeldue have a job? He’s a rookie drafted with the intent to develop him into a starter over the course of several years, which is common.

Could the Seahawks sign someone off of the street who is better than Bradford? Maybe but most of us said that Connor Williams had to be a better center than the options Seattle had before he signed last season and he was actually worse. It sounds like the Seahawks will toy around with some ideas after Sundell is activated from IR.

I wrote the “He’s Bradford your health” article on September 27th and nothing has changed since then so I think the topic of Seattle’s right guard problem is sort of overrexposed until the Seahawks actually make a change to the lineup. What can we really do other than make the same criticisms of Bradford that we made two months ago? According to Macdonald, the whole body of work is still better than all the other options and we can all confirm that last week’s bad game was just as bad as Week 1’s bad game so there might not be a change this season given that Seattle clearly knows what to expect.

Maxx: Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch was famous for his directive to subordinates to “destroy the business,” meaning that he wanted to know what are the weaknesses within that could bring down the company. What are the defense’s weaknesses and, if you were an opposing OC, how do you exploit those weaknesses? And as a follow up, do you think that the defense is playing at a sustainable level?

I just happened to cover my thoughts and some stats about the defense on Tuesday before I read this question. I have never thought of “sustainable” as a problem for Seattle’s defense and in fact they’re probably getting better by the week.

We’ll see what happens in the Week 18 rematch, but the 49ers got so lucky to face the Seahawks in Week 1, which still stands as Seattle’s second-worst all-around effort of the season behind the Bucs game. I think the Seahawks could hold the 49ers to half as many yards right now.

Bob: Hard to say how I’d exploit our Defense’s ‘alleged’ weaknesses. Folks who get paid to do just that haven’t figured it out thus far...so fat chance I have a clue. As starters return fron injury rehab our D should only get stronger (a very scary thought for NFL OC’s). You think our front four are scary now? Just wait until Jarren gets back.

To piggyback off of Bob’s answer, everybody in the league wants a piece of what Macdonald is able to do right now. He’s getting the most pressure with 4 rushers and that has also allowed linebackers Ernest Jones IV and Drake Thomas to become local legends, if not league-wide stars.

Schematic weaknesses? Great question. Personnel weaknesses? I’m keeping my hopes low for Tariq Woolen. He’s been the player on Seattle’s defense that good teams have attacked in the past when they want to beat the Seahawks in December and January. Woolen’s production over the last six games has been outstanding (15/34 passing allowed, 44% completions, 49.4 passer rating), probably even better than his rookie season, and I’ll be happy to eat crow and give him all of his due…when the year is over.

Since Week 7, Woolen has by far the lowest Y/target allowed in the NFL:

(Ernest Jones is allowing the lowest passer rating in the NFL since Week 7.)

Bob: Maybe it’s a gap in my attention span, but it ‘seems’ our 1st down’s are not anything to write about...so I will. Of course, 2nd and short opens WIDE the play book thus harder for D’s to predict. How do we compare with other top 5 teams on 1st downs?

Here are some first down statistics:

• The Seahawks get a first down on 26.1% of their first downs, the 2nd-best rate in the NFL behind the Colts (26.4%) and ahead of the Rams (25.5%).

• Seattle runs the ball on first down at the third-highest rate in the NFL

• The Seahawks have the third-best sack rate on first down (4 out 155 dropbacks)

• Darnold has the fourth-best first down passer rating (113.2) behind Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the second most catches (36) and most yards (589) and fourth-most touchdowns (4) on first down

• The Seahawks average 4.1 yards per carry on first down, which ranks 18th, but 15.2% of their carries have gotten another first down, which ranks 7th

• The Seahawks average 8.8 yards per pass on first down, which ranks first by 0.6 yards over 2nd place and more than a yard over 4th place

We can safely call Seattle one of the five best first down teams in the NFL. Their two weaknesses are interceptions (6) and runs but the Seahawks have been creeping up as a good running team lately; they’ve averaged 4.6 yards per carry on first down over the last five weeks.

Grant: The Bears and Seahawks are two teams that have already surpassed their pre-season wins predictions. These are also the two teams that were able to hire the two most coveted young coordinators as head coaches over the last couple years. Everyone loves Dan Campbell, but how is he doing without Ben Johnson?

If you’re a team hunting for it’s next head coach, is it more important to hire the smartest guy in the room or the most charismatic leader? Are there any coordinators this season getting the same kind of buzz that Ben Johnson and Mike Macdonald had going for them?

What’s interesting to me about the “gurus” like say Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, or Matt LaFleur, all uber-successful head coaches in the last ten years, is that I’ve seen their play calling criticized on an annual basis by their own fans. So is it even play calling that makes them successful?

Nick Sirianni won the last Super Bowl and went to the Super Bowl in 2022, but he doesn’t call plays and he’s afraid to even take over play calling duties now as the Eagles have become one of the worst offenses in the league. Campbell took over play calling duties and look at some of the numbers that the Lions have put up recently: They’re 3rd in rushing yards and 6th in points since Campbell took over play calling.

Mike Macdonald has to be one of the elite, if not the best, defensive play callers in the NFL. He’s also proven to be at a huge disadvantage as a head coach when he has a bad offensive coordinator, as we saw in 2024.

I’m not particularly wowed by Ben Johnson yet other than to say that he’s made the Bears better than the Bears usually are. On their current 5-game win streak Chicago barely beat the Bengals without Burrow, barely beat the Giants, barely beat the Vikings, and barely beat the Steelers. And maybe they’re just getting better as the season goes on, that could happen. For now, I want to see how they play against the Packers.

“Next” Macdonald and Johnson

As to the other part, it was so obvious that Macdonald and Ben Johnson were the coordinator gurus that everyone wanted that if similar coaches existed right now you and I would already know about them. The question would answer itself. It’s not really doing that, is it?

Maybe that’s because so many teams hired play calling gurus as head coaches.

The only name that stands out to me at all is Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula because he’s got one of the top defenses in the NFL, he’s under 40, and his head coach is an offensive guy. But do I think everyone wants a piece of what he has in the way that so many teams poached Ravens defensive coaches in 2024? No that’s not what’s happening.

Maybe Jesse Minter, Chargers defensive coordinator, another Macdonald/Harbaugh guy.

Offensively the pickings seem slim, which is why Klint Kubiak could be popular. I don’t think anyone is putting him on the Ben Johnson pedestal. Honestly, most teams shouldn’t fire a head coach this cycle.

Don Ellis: I have watched a few Falcons games this year and dove into the stats this week. The Falcons only stand out in a few areas; mainly passing defense, pressure defense and rushing offense. Even with the decidedly average looking team, this game makes me nervous. What is your playbook for returning home with a win?

Not to downplay your nerves, but the Seahawks could lose any of their remaining games. Any of them, including the Falcons. Here’s the Falcons last 5: 24-23 Loss (Patriots), 31-25 OT Loss (Colts), 30-27 OT Loss (Panthers), 24-10 Win (Saints), 27-24 Loss (Jets). They almost beat 3 straight teams that have a winning record right now.

I couldn’t say it better than you, Don. Average team. If the Seahawks played the Falcons 100 times, maybe they win 55-60% of those games, which is a good mark against average teams. I also think Atlanta is a scarier team with Kirk Cousins than with Michael Penix but that has more to do with Penix who is just way too erratic. I’ll get more into Atlanta later in the week, so I’ll put this question to the community first:

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