Seahawks begin interviews for Kubiak replacement

My really accurate prediction for Kenneth Walker's playoff surge and free agency cost

“The power is in you. The answer is in you. And you are the answer to all your searches: you are the goal. You are the answer. It’s never outside.”

The Seahawks must be reading Eckhart Tolle.

Here’s what I wrote three weeks ago when I tried to predict who the next Seattle offensive coordinator would be after Klint Kubiak was gone and this was even before his final interview with the Raiders:

Names I think will be floated include Brian Daboll, Joe Brady, Frank Smith, Mike Kafka, Zac Robinson, Todd Monken, or even Greg Roman. Some names you will want, plenty that you won’t. My answer is none of those names.

The coach I think will replace Klint Kubiak is: One of the Seahawks current offensive assistant coaches.

Not exciting, I know. But when you think about how Schneider and Macdonald landed on Kubiak last year, it starts to seem reasonable that someone like Jake Peetz, Andrew Janocko, Justin Outten, or Rick Dennison was handpicked by Kubiak to replace him under these very circumstances.

So far the only thing I got wrong was picking Dennison over Mack Brown.

Ultimately I went with Peetz as my final answer, but it wouldn’t be surprising if it turned out to be Janocko:

Dennison and Outten have had their shots and disappointed. Janocko is very inexperienced. Peetz on the other hand has all the tools—and a year of education from all of these people—to be the logical next person in line.

I also don’t think that Dennison is necessarily a bad choice, as he helped Arian Foster lead the league in rushing and touchdowns as the Texans OC in 2008 and he’s still the strongest remaining link to the Shanahan/Kubiak system, which also makes him the best choice to keep offensive line coach John Benton. Maybe Seattle feels an interview is unnecessary or maybe Dennison doesn’t want to be an OC again.

In any case, he would have also been the least exciting hire in the group.

Conversely, Peetz comes with no prior experience as an NFL offensive coordinator but a lot of time working for respected coaches like Sean McVay, Nick Saban, and Mike Macdonald.

Janocko is called “the young one” of the group like “The In-House Candidates” is a boy band, although he’s only three years younger than Peetz.

Peetz has far more play calling experience (Janocko could be heavily involved in scripting plays, but he never been any kind of coordinator at any level) and Janocko has only been a quarterbacks coach since 2021. Everyone has to start somewhere, but I wonder if Seattle is hopeful to promote Janocko to pass game coordinator and Peetz to offensive coordinator before going straight to OC.

In that case, the Seahawks would risk losing Janocko to Las Vegas if Kubiak wants him to be the OC; Seattle has the better job (play calling, which Kubiak will be doing for the Raiders) but do they want to give it to someone who has never done it before?

Outten was the Seahawks run game coordinator last season, a title that carries some good and some bad depending on what time of year we’re talking about. Clearly the interview suggests respect for Outten’s first season in Seattle.

Brown is the surprise here, a coach with experience on both side of the ball and who Seahawks.com calls “instrumental” in developing A.J. Barner. I wonder to myself who gets to choose what to write on team websites and whether coaches endorse it all or if it’s more like the NFL’s version of Wikipedia.

The Seahawks OC search is scheduled for Thursday and Friday, but they will have to interview at least one outside candidate to be compliant with the Rooney Rule and perhaps that person will win the job.

It’s only a matter days before Macdonald tells someone, “You are the answer”.

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Danno: I know the “Friday after the Super Bowl” is a trigger moment in several contracts with our players. Money becomes guaranteed. I know Kupp is one such contract. Are there others? Does your gut tell you what players might be out due to the money vesting? I think last year at this time Chenna agreed to postpone the vesting to ease the pressure of a decision and it worked out for both parties.

Here are the February 13th triggers for the Seahawks:

• Sam Darnold, $2.5 million of salary becomes fully guaranteed + $15 million roster bonus

• Abe Lucas, entire salary becomes guaranteed

• Michael Dickson, entire salary becomes guaranteed

• Cooper Kupp, $9 million becomes guaranteed

• DeMarcus Lawrence, $5 million becomes guaranteed

• Ernest Jones, $5 million becomes guaranteed

• Jarran Reed, $2 million becomes guaranteed

Would seem that all these players seem safe save for Kupp. You bring up a good point with Uchenna Nwosu, which ultimately led to a pay cut to stay.

I’ve been saying the last few years that the further you get away from the season, the easier it becomes for the mind to re-write history and tell you a completely different picture than what actually happened in order to justify a continued relationship with a player. And I’m not just saying *you all* I’m including myself in that too. I want to believe there’s a reason to keep Kupp happy because he was so good in the playoffs.

Kupp was as productive in the playoffs (15 catches, 157 yards, 1 TD) as he was in the final six regular season games (16 catches, 179 yards, 1 TD).

Unfortunately a 33-year-old blocking receiver with 3 catches for 35 yards per game is not worth the $13.5 million he’s owed or the $9 million that becomes guaranteed on Friday. The only solution would be to push back the date, work out a reduced salary, or just say “thank you and do you want to be a receivers coach?”

Would be perfect timing if receivers coach Frisman Jackson goes to Las Vegas.

(Players almost never want to become coaches though, especially rich players.)

Chip Mack: How much was Kupp and K9 worth in October versus post Super Bowl?

On Kupp, I’d lean back on what I said in the last question. He’s probably worth less now because in October there was still hope he might rekindle the flame. We should be even more certain now that old Kupp is never coming back. He’s fine if you’re not paying him anything.

You asked about October, which reminded me that I wrote “When a contract year isn’t a contract year” that month, noting that players like Kupp and Lawrence had more to prove than pending free agents. Lawrence played his way into another season, Kupp didn’t.

Grant asked a similar question about Kenneth Walker in November:

Grant: Is K9 a more affordable second contract now than he was in the preseason?

SSJ: To guess if Kenneth Walker would have made more money if he had signed before the season is to assume that the Seahawks ever made Walker a contract offer at all. If the Seahawks never negotiated with him, then he has never gained or lost anything.

(blah blah blah I wrote a lot of really smart, witty stuff about Walker)

He’s not going to have a hard time finding suitors and as I wrote a month ago that could make Walker too expensive to keep when there are cheaper, younger alternatives. But it’s only midseason. Walker is capable of monster games and just imagine a world where he rushes for 300 yards during the playoffs. It could happen.

All that being said, I do not expect the Seahawks to roll with Zach Charbonnet and George Holani alone next season. Either bring back Walker or make a significant addition, either in the draft or free agency. This is nothing against Charbonnet, but they could be just as quick to move on from him in 2027.

Me 2.5 months ago:

“just imagine a world where he rushes for 300 yards during the playoffs. It could happen.”

Kenneth Walker:

65 carries, 313 yards, 4 TDs in the playoffs.

Walker’s contract situation is something I’ve written about many times in the last 1.5 years and my stance has almost never changed. Even back in the summer of 2024, when the Patriots extended Rhamondre Stevenson for $9 million per year, I said that’s a reasonable baseline for Walker.

Now whether he bet on himself or Schneider just hesitated for too long, Walker is worth more than that.

My prediction is franchise tag, which is $14.5 million for one season. A long-term contract could make total sense but could cost Seattle as much as twice as much guaranteed money without that road being necessary. The time to get a discount on Walker probably expired when the team let the 2025 season begin without a contract.

Don Ellis: How much time is Zach Charbonnet expected to miss next season?

One social media doctor covered how the injury happened and what exactly was torn and why. If you believe any of those guys who evaluate injuries online (I don’t necessarily see a reason to distrust some of them and could a person fake an explanation like ones with this much medical detail?) then Charbonnet’s timeline is 9-12 months.

There’s really nothing anyone can guarantee this soon after the injury in terms of his recovery or how much ability he may have lost forever due to the injury.

To the point where it wouldn’t even matter if Charbonnet, Charbonnet’s doctors, John Schneider, and Charbonnet’s mother all held a press conference and said “He WILL be back in Week 1”. Well, you can say that, you can believe that, but you can’t know that.

Charbonnet’s injury occurred almost one month ago. So even if he recovered in eight months, that would still keep him out until mid-October. That would mean that Charbonnet starts the season on PUP and misses the first four games prior to six weeks of practice and a three-week window to be activated.

You have a guy this year in Rylie Mills who misses the entire season and then gets a sack in the Super Bowl, so Charbonnet has plenty of reason to believe he will contribute.

But it is also possible that Charbonnet misses the entire season. As a 2027 free agent, the Seahawks have to have a contingency plan as if their only running back signed for next season is George Holani, making it even more pressing to either keep Walker or have a brilliant replacement plan.

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