I really have to stop looking at that gif. In the context of this article I thought “damn it Kenneth, you’re setting us up to say the reason they haven’t paid Witherspoon is because they’ve discovered he’s Kelly Jennings II”.
I think John Gilbert solved the mystery. Point 1. Because only the top 51 count during the off season the Seahawks have the money to sign Witherspoon and Charbonnet.
Point 2. The most likely reason they have not signed is they don't want to pay state taxes on their bonus money. (JSN from Texas probably maintained his Texas residency while at Ohio State - you can do that while in college.) Since Texas like Washington has no state income tax had no need to establish residency. Witherspoon and Charbonnet are likely apartment house hunting as they need a physical residence to establish residency and will sign shortly thereafter.
Point 3 there are going to need to be approximately 5 million dollars cleared before the regular season begins to accommodate player 52 and 53 plus the 16 man practice squad. Ken's comments are very relevant here and undoubtedly there is a plan.
Where to get 5 million dollars, my two cents worth (pun intended):
1) Cut /Trade Jamal Adams my reading in either scenario is a dead cap hit of 23 million dollars against a cap savings of 18 million = loss of 5 million so no savings there. Jamal is going to be a Seahawk this year.
2) Noah Fant - guaranteed salary 6.85. If Seahawks trade him for a future draft pick they get instant relief and have the money. But they have to trade him to get the relief because if they cut him then the Seahawks are on the hook for the 6.85 until he is signed by another team and they are still on the hook for the difference when he signs what will likely be a 1 year deal at vet minimum. So this is a trade option but likely needs that "training camp injury," or it would have happened already. TE is one of those complex position which require the player to learn both the blocking and route scheme thus it is good to get the player in the organization as soon as possible. It is for this reason that I think the Seahawks wanted 2 years to look at Fant. I don't think they are trading Fant because right now he is worth more to the Seahawks then anyone else.
3) Sign Nwosu to a long term contract. Problem is the Seahawks are unlikely to save that much money by signing him in terms of the cap hit. Nwosu current cap hit is 13 million but 4.75 is still bonus that they will not be able to move to future years. Meaning there is only 9 million to play with and Nwosu is going to want a significant bonus. That is not say it cannot be done but I think it is far more likely that the Seahawks simply borrow 5 million from next year by converting part of Nwosu contract to bonus with voidable years and potentially part of Bobby's contract to bonus. The other option is to trade Nwosu and there could be a market but again I doubt it materializes. The teams that have the cap space are do not contenders or really don't have a glaring hole for a OLB. So again I believe the Seahawks for at least for this year are likely to value Nwosu more than the teams that would be taking on his salary.
Bottom Line is - we are likely looking at the players who will be on the Seahawks this year and the cap space will come from borrowing 5 million from next year with a bit of cap manipulation.
When each of those players are signed, doesn't that drop a corresponding player from the top - 51, accounting for a little under a mil, so that the cap recovers that amount each time? Still won't be enough, but does recover close to 2 mil.
Jun 25, 2023·edited Jun 25, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe
A couple of small corrections, but nothing big enough to change the overall conclusion that the Hawks will need to create more space between now and sometimes (likely prior to the start of the season).
I'll write it up for the morning, along with my guess as to why Charbonnet and Witherspoon remain unsigned.
I don't have the logins anymore to comment at FG, but thank you for an excellent write-up this morning! (and for the quite rational recommendation not to sweat the timeline)
If they aren't signed by camp, are they protected against injury, like insurance-wise? I'm nervous about this, but i'm trusting John to figure something out. He is my Harvey Specter.
Jun 25, 2023·edited Jun 25, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe
Excellent as always.
You know - and maybe you already covered it before I subscribed - someday I would love to hear about your experience running FG. As someone who's been lurking there on-and-off since '07 (though less frequently of late - too much negativity for negativity's sake imho), it was really interesting to watch your transition in and out of that role from afar, but a firsthand account would be cool.
The "technically" part is definitely correct since by signing Spoon and Charb at this point in the season only the top 51 count towards the cap, and they will each displace another salary on the roster... BUT a Nwosu restructure is all but inevitable.
I still think Fant is going to get traded--displaced by Bobo of all people who has the size to move into a TE role. Bobo is a "slow" WR but he is a fast TE, and if he is willing and capable as an in-line blocker Fant will definitely be expendable.
In the first version of this article, I wrote that Bryan Mone tore his ACL in January, when I should have written December. Writing tip: Don't look somewhere else when you're writing, because you might end up seeing the word "January" and write that instead of the month you meant to write.
I really have to stop looking at that gif. In the context of this article I thought “damn it Kenneth, you’re setting us up to say the reason they haven’t paid Witherspoon is because they’ve discovered he’s Kelly Jennings II”.
They need to keep at least One big ugly with some experience at the NT position-
I think John Gilbert solved the mystery. Point 1. Because only the top 51 count during the off season the Seahawks have the money to sign Witherspoon and Charbonnet.
Point 2. The most likely reason they have not signed is they don't want to pay state taxes on their bonus money. (JSN from Texas probably maintained his Texas residency while at Ohio State - you can do that while in college.) Since Texas like Washington has no state income tax had no need to establish residency. Witherspoon and Charbonnet are likely apartment house hunting as they need a physical residence to establish residency and will sign shortly thereafter.
Point 3 there are going to need to be approximately 5 million dollars cleared before the regular season begins to accommodate player 52 and 53 plus the 16 man practice squad. Ken's comments are very relevant here and undoubtedly there is a plan.
Where to get 5 million dollars, my two cents worth (pun intended):
1) Cut /Trade Jamal Adams my reading in either scenario is a dead cap hit of 23 million dollars against a cap savings of 18 million = loss of 5 million so no savings there. Jamal is going to be a Seahawk this year.
2) Noah Fant - guaranteed salary 6.85. If Seahawks trade him for a future draft pick they get instant relief and have the money. But they have to trade him to get the relief because if they cut him then the Seahawks are on the hook for the 6.85 until he is signed by another team and they are still on the hook for the difference when he signs what will likely be a 1 year deal at vet minimum. So this is a trade option but likely needs that "training camp injury," or it would have happened already. TE is one of those complex position which require the player to learn both the blocking and route scheme thus it is good to get the player in the organization as soon as possible. It is for this reason that I think the Seahawks wanted 2 years to look at Fant. I don't think they are trading Fant because right now he is worth more to the Seahawks then anyone else.
3) Sign Nwosu to a long term contract. Problem is the Seahawks are unlikely to save that much money by signing him in terms of the cap hit. Nwosu current cap hit is 13 million but 4.75 is still bonus that they will not be able to move to future years. Meaning there is only 9 million to play with and Nwosu is going to want a significant bonus. That is not say it cannot be done but I think it is far more likely that the Seahawks simply borrow 5 million from next year by converting part of Nwosu contract to bonus with voidable years and potentially part of Bobby's contract to bonus. The other option is to trade Nwosu and there could be a market but again I doubt it materializes. The teams that have the cap space are do not contenders or really don't have a glaring hole for a OLB. So again I believe the Seahawks for at least for this year are likely to value Nwosu more than the teams that would be taking on his salary.
Bottom Line is - we are likely looking at the players who will be on the Seahawks this year and the cap space will come from borrowing 5 million from next year with a bit of cap manipulation.
Great comment…. I really appreciate the time you took to share your knowledge!
When each of those players are signed, doesn't that drop a corresponding player from the top - 51, accounting for a little under a mil, so that the cap recovers that amount each time? Still won't be enough, but does recover close to 2 mil.
A couple of small corrections, but nothing big enough to change the overall conclusion that the Hawks will need to create more space between now and sometimes (likely prior to the start of the season).
I'll write it up for the morning, along with my guess as to why Charbonnet and Witherspoon remain unsigned.
I don't have the logins anymore to comment at FG, but thank you for an excellent write-up this morning! (and for the quite rational recommendation not to sweat the timeline)
My man!
If they aren't signed by camp, are they protected against injury, like insurance-wise? I'm nervous about this, but i'm trusting John to figure something out. He is my Harvey Specter.
hah, hah, just watched the 1st episode of Suits on the Fllx of the Net. didn't want to be drawn into another series, ... but, dang it's entertaining.
I binged my way through season 3 and am starting on 4. I am not excited about the storylines in 4, yet, but 1-3 were amazing!
Excellent as always.
You know - and maybe you already covered it before I subscribed - someday I would love to hear about your experience running FG. As someone who's been lurking there on-and-off since '07 (though less frequently of late - too much negativity for negativity's sake imho), it was really interesting to watch your transition in and out of that role from afar, but a firsthand account would be cool.
Thanks for all you do!
Interesting request Ode! That’s something I’ll have to think about, had not thought of doing anything like that before.
I woke up at 3 a.m. going like "Wait...is there a Suggestion Box where we can assign Mr. Arthur homework?!?!?”
I really need to get a life.
A Ken Arthur author origin story! Yes! I think it might be a good time for that in the off-season, with so many new(er) subscribers
The "technically" part is definitely correct since by signing Spoon and Charb at this point in the season only the top 51 count towards the cap, and they will each displace another salary on the roster... BUT a Nwosu restructure is all but inevitable.
I still think Fant is going to get traded--displaced by Bobo of all people who has the size to move into a TE role. Bobo is a "slow" WR but he is a fast TE, and if he is willing and capable as an in-line blocker Fant will definitely be expendable.
In the first version of this article, I wrote that Bryan Mone tore his ACL in January, when I should have written December. Writing tip: Don't look somewhere else when you're writing, because you might end up seeing the word "January" and write that instead of the month you meant to write.